Ukraine 15 - Si vis pacem, para bellum

[ThinkerX]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

This is the best summary of what's going on I've seen. Russia used similar tactics in 2008 and they did not work, so after smoothly pivoting to a diplomatic solution (from the French, which is why the French are so keen on keeping up dialogue right now, because it worked before) they set about reforming the army. But it seems like the reforms completely failed to have any impact on the ground so they've retreated to their former approach, and are now finding out why they abandoned that approach in the first place.

The Red Army in 1944 also had an absolutely massive logistics division and a huge amount of logistics-driven technology, including railroad cars built on both the Russian and European standard gauge (in the United States and shipped over) so they could effortlessly switch between them. The modern Russian army has severely undervalued logistics, and indeed, the modern Russian army is not designed with long-distance offensive operations in mind.

To me, it appears the Russian army 'reforms' after 2008 meant going full kleptocratic.

[Kalbear]

@Werthead, I think that's unfair to Russia. Russian aims are absolutely against giving any military leaders any power or any independent thinking or encouraging using judgment. That could potentially be a threat to putin. Can't have that. 

[Werthead]

CNN managed to interview a Russian officer who refused to fight and resigned his commission some weeks into the war.

I think we've heard previously about the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, where ~70% of the soldiers pointblank refused to go into Ukraine and resigned. One organisation advising soldiers refusing to fight thinks around 1,000 Russian soldiers and officers have refused to fight or have resigned, and that may be an underestimate.

Quote

The force drove northwest, in the direction of Kherson. As they approached a village, a man with a whip jumped out and started whipping the convoy and screaming: "You all are f**ked!" the officer recalled.

[Winterfell is Burning]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

And effective leadership. Zhukov knew what he was about and knew to reinforce successes and let field commanders follow their initiative. Operation Bagration succeeded far, far beyond their most optimistic projections partially because Soviet commanders on the ground suddenly realised the German lines were Swiss cheese with almost nothing behind them and could shatter if they just went for it, rather than sticking to the much more conservative original targets. That ended the war months earlier than if they'd been too terrified to show initiative.

At almost every single turn, the Russians have shown a startling ignorance of their own tactics from WWII, despite them bringing up WWII every ten seconds.

Yes, but difference is that Stalin couldn't kill the effective military leadership he hadn't killed already because he was in a battle for survival. Meanwhile, being too good of a general and having too much initiative will get you in trouble in Putin's Russia.

[Jace, Extat]

4 hours ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

Yes, but difference is that Stalin couldn't kill the effective military leadership he hadn't killed already because he was in a battle for survival. Meanwhile, being too good of a general and having too much initiative will get you in trouble in Putin's Russia.

Promote or Poison 

The dicktator's dilemma.

[Varysblackfyre321]

7 hours ago, Babblebauble said:

Promote or Poison 

The dicktator's dilemma.

Broke: Poison your most competent soldiers :

Woke: Promote your most competent soldiers 

Bespoke: promote your most competent soldiers and then poison them after they win your wars.

 

[broken one]

 

[DaveSumm]

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

56 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

 

Good for that man!

[Werthead]

There's a lot of "respect for the Ukrainians" going on at the moment in some Russian circles. The artillery commanders are saying they can't sit still because the second they fire, the Ukrainians start zeroing in on them back, so have to fire-and-relocate, which reduces the amount of fire they can send out (there were reports a while back of some Russian commanders ordering the artillery to stay put, invariably resulting in the artillery being destroyed).

On one of the Russian state media shows a couple of days back, a Russian politician said that that the Ukrainian army is "the second-best army in Europe" and is basically "Russian in character." The Russians are having a hard time defeating them because "we are fighting Russian soldiers and officers." There was some of this early on in the war but it quickly evaporated, but now seems to be coming back. 

There seems to have been an uptick in Ukrainian attacks on Russian forces around Kherson in the last few days. Unclear if this is business as usual, raids to dissuade a fresh southern offensive or something else.

[Jace, Extat]

Observation: Repetitive, speculative, utterly impotent exclamationing over inferred-consensus appeasement opportunities serving only agitation towards unjustified hysterics appears to have ceased almost altogether. In fact, most recent recorded hysteric was quickly addressed as such and has been disinclined to further such improperly motivated opinions for some days. 

Speculation: Peer induced recess from commentary on excitable subject; avoidance to ridicule for irregular opinions and unproductive, unsubstantiated, doomsaying.

Secondary speculation: Fragmentish attention has spanned on; insufficient emotional bandwidth to accommodate formerly-overwhelming, implicitly all-encompassing, concerns of nuclear war alongside most recent Twitter/Insta/whatthefuckeveryoukidsareonthesedays,(woulditbesobadtotrymethinstead?) amplified group psychosis.

Conclusion: Morale improved. 

[sologdin]

the 'rebuttal' of chomsky is trash--it alleges strawpersons without quotation or citation. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

12 minutes ago, sologdin said:

the 'rebuttal' of chomsky is trash--it alleges strawpersons without quotation or citation. 

Chomsky’s apologia for the Russian dictator was unimpressive.

[Larry of the Lawn]

6 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Chomsky’s apologia for the Russian dictator was unimpressive.

What apologia?  I just read the two interviews cited in the rebuttal but didn't find much, most of what he had to say about Putin was stuff like this:

Quote

Before turning to the question, we should settle a few facts that are uncontestable. The most crucial one is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a major war crime, ranking alongside the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the Hitler-Stalin invasion of Poland in September 1939, to take only two salient examples. It always makes sense to seek explanations, but there is no justification, no extenuation.

That's from the truthout interview.  Here's one from the current affairs interview:

Quote

That’s one option. The other option is a European Common home, independent force in world affairs, no military alliances—that’s been a struggle all the way through since the Second World War, very much alive today. Macron and his limited initiatives towards Putin were pushing in the same direction. Putin in his criminal stupidity lost the opportunity. If there had been a single statesman in the Kremlin, what they would have done is grasp that opportunity. Europe had many reasons to want to have better relations with Russia. Trade complementarity, which is perfectly obvious, lots of reasons. Would have been an inducement; could have worked. We don’t know. They didn’t try it.

Instead, Putin did what every man of violence does: reach for the violent option, attack Ukraine with criminal aggression, and hand the United States on a silver platter its most fervent wish: Europe deep in its pocket

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, Larry of the Lake said:

What apologia?  I just read the two interviews cited in the rebuttal but didn't find much, most of what he had to say about Putin was stuff like this:

That's from the truthout interview.  Here's one from the current affairs interview:

The apologia that says its wrong to arm Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion.  The apologia that says we should pressure Ukraine to concede territory it doesn’t want to concede.

You can argue it isn’t apologia but it functions as such because it empowers the Russian Dictator and rewards his agression while Chomsky claims it is “promoting peace”.

https://truthout.org/articles/chomsky-lets-focus-on-preventing-nuclear-war-rather-than-debating-just-war/?amp

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

A very interesting thread discussing reports that the Russian army is preparing to deploy deep stores of T-62 Tanks in Ukraine.  It suggests Russian tank losses may be worse then previously estimated:

 

[Corvinus85]

2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

A very interesting thread discussing reports that the Russian army is preparing to deploy deep stores of T-62 Tanks in Ukraine.  It suggests Russian tank losses may be worse then previously estimated:

 

Along with the old men who know how to operate them, no doubt.

[SpaceChampion]

A German academic of Russian studies talks to a Russian journalist about what they perceive the whole war is all about:

https://www.e-flux.com/journal/126/460518/putin-restoration-of-destruction/

Quote

LL: You are talking about processes of decolonization and deglobalization. Vladimir Putin is trying to propagate the so-called Russian World, uniting Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and maybe even Northern Kazakhstan under its flag in some sort of imperial structure. Are his actions part of this trend or do they buck it?

BG: They totally fit the trend. Putin’s is a regional politics: it is aimed at defending a particular region and its alleged ethno-cultural identity. Iran and the Islamist movements in general have served as the model for those seeking to banish all things Western in the hope that when you remove them, your true cultural identity (for example, an Islamic identify) will shine forth with its natural light. The same thing is gradually happening now in China and India. Cultural identity is discovered by purging the “Western abominations” that have accumulated like a dense layer on its surface. Russia has repeatedly evinced the desire to purge itself of the West—of Facebook, McDonald’s, modern art, rock music, of everything that the Russian does not need and can do perfectly well without. The belief is that if this stuff is removed, the divine wisdom of the Russian spirit will shine with its own light.

The only problem is (and it is an old problem that has been around since the nineteenth century) that this process of stripping and purging Russia of everything Western can never end. There is a non-European cultural substrate in Iran, India, and China. So, when you purge everything European, something homegrown, something originally non-European, does emerge. I am not saying whether this exists in Russia or not. I can only say that all attempts to find it have proved futile and suicidal. That is, the movement back to origins and the Russian World have proved completely suicidal.

In this sense, Russia has reproduced a well-known trope of German culture. In the nineteenth century, Germans also argued that German culture was inherently different from Western civilization, that German culture should be purged of Western civilization to be manifested in all its might. Upon closer examination, however, it transpired that this power was purely negative. German thinkers reflected on this, even glorifying these suicidal, self-destructive tendencies to some extent. Russian culture did this to some extent, too. We can read about the suicidal search for one’s foundations in Dostoevsky’s works, for example. From a cultural perspective, the new paroxysm to purge things Western and get back to Russianness, which we are now witnessing, is a purely suicidal operation.

LL: It’s a “special operation.” It is interesting that you say that Vladimir Putin’s schemes are based on the Islamic world’s know-how. In this context, Ramzan Kadyrov’s constant involvement seems super curious. This appeal to traditional values also exists in Russia, nationally, as well as locally, in Chechnya, Dagestan, and the Caucasian republics. Based on what you say, is Kadyrov’s constant involvement intentional?

BG: His involvement has a definite tactical or political benefit, of course. Generally, though, I think that the Putin regime is trying to hark back to a very large Russian tradition—searching for the Russian World’s foundations by purging it of the West. In this sense, I have the distinct feeling that Western sanctions are perhaps the most important goal of this entire operation, or, at least, one of its goals: finally evicting the West from Russian territory, from the Russian World. After all, this is what Iran and many Muslim states did, what Afghanistan showed us not so long ago. But, for this to happen, of course, it is vital that all people who belong to the Russian folk [russkii narod], including allegedly Ukrainians (who have been caught in the crossfire in this instance) live the same way, the “Russian way.”

 

Quote

LL: So, the fact is that the whole world talks about it this way, but inside Russia, in our informational bubble, we have an alternative version of reality, and people believe in it. Meaning, that there really is no truth. For millions of people, that is, the truth is still the one supplied by official propaganda.

BG: That’s right. Because they want to think this, this is what they will think. And they will interpret all the facts and pictures they see in this vein. People simply believe that this [“special military”] operation is justified. To change their point of view, they must become disenchanted with it. If people think that the Russian World is a good thing and needs to be propagated, they will interpret absolutely everything accordingly. No facts, post-facts, or fake news will change their minds. They must become disillusioned with the war’s goals and causes. Then they will change their point of view.

LL: Do I understand correctly that if the special operation is successful, and the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic are liberated and annexed to Russia, the Russian Federation will continue to live this truth? Will it be in our history books?

BG: Yes, of course. But what would it mean? Russia would be isolated from the whole world. We don’t know whether it would be able to control those territories even after winning this war. It would live amid increasing repression. And at some point, people would grow tired of it.

 

Quote

There is no revolutionary situation in Russia. But it is possible that fatigue will set in. I don’t know whether you remember the end of the Soviet regime. People just stopped working, nobody did anything. And they constantly said that they were tired.

LL: So, there was a collective national depression?

BG: People would drink coffee or beer during work hours. They would chat or talk on the phone. But they didn’t do any work at all. And yet, they would say constantly that they were awfully tired. Everything failed, because all these apparatuses—bureaucratic, industrial, etc.—feed on living flesh and blood. They feed on the energy of the masses, as Lenin said.

But when I look at today’s Russians, I don’t get the feeling that they have huge reserves of energy. Therefore, you can stage Triumph of the Will as you like, but you cannot force the masses to mobilize. If they don’t mobilize and invest their energy, it will fail by itself, not because anyone protests against it. The Russian Empire failed in this way, and so did the Soviet Union. It failed due to fatigue; people lost their energy.

 

[SeanF]

6 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The apologia that says its wrong to arm Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion.  The apologia that says we should pressure Ukraine to concede territory it doesn’t want to concede.

You can argue it isn’t apologia but it functions as such because it empowers the Russian Dictator and rewards his agression while Chomsky claims it is “promoting peace”.

https://truthout.org/articles/chomsky-lets-focus-on-preventing-nuclear-war-rather-than-debating-just-war/?amp

It's very much an outlook that denies agency and sovereignty to Ukrainians.  And, when reading his comments about the assassination of Heydrich, one that transfers blame, from those who commit aggression, to those who resist it.

[SeanF]

16 hours ago, Werthead said:

There's a lot of "respect for the Ukrainians" going on at the moment in some Russian circles. The artillery commanders are saying they can't sit still because the second they fire, the Ukrainians start zeroing in on them back, so have to fire-and-relocate, which reduces the amount of fire they can send out (there were reports a while back of some Russian commanders ordering the artillery to stay put, invariably resulting in the artillery being destroyed).

On one of the Russian state media shows a couple of days back, a Russian politician said that that the Ukrainian army is "the second-best army in Europe" and is basically "Russian in character." The Russians are having a hard time defeating them because "we are fighting Russian soldiers and officers." There was some of this early on in the war but it quickly evaporated, but now seems to be coming back. 

There seems to have been an uptick in Ukrainian attacks on Russian forces around Kherson in the last few days. Unclear if this is business as usual, raids to dissuade a fresh southern offensive or something else.

I wonder why it never occurred to them, given their emphasis on The Great Patriotic War, that today’s Ukrainians would show the same fighting spirit as their grandparents did.