Ukraine 15 - Si vis pacem, para bellum

[Zorral]

So much destroyed, so much outright stolen.

‘Ukraine’s heritage is under direct attack’: why Russia is looting the country’s museums
2,000 stolen artworks attest to Putin’s desire to erase a nation’s history – like so many despots before him

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2022/may/27/ukraine-russia-looting-museums

Quote

 

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, the director of the Museum of Local History in Melitopol in the south-east of the country, Leila Ibrahimova, arranged for a hoard of gold artefacts from ancient Scythia to be hidden. Just a few weeks later, she was kidnapped and interrogated by Russian troops. They demanded to know where the Scythian gold was; she refused to cooperate. Subsequently the museum’s curator Galina Andriivna Kucher was taken at gunpoint to the museum and asked to show a Russian “expert” and agents where the gold was. She also refused to locate the collection. Kucher was later abducted from her home on 30 April and her whereabouts remains unknown.

According to a report on the theft in the New York Times, Russian troops eventually found the gold hoard, which dates back to the fourth century BC, boxed up in the museum’s basement. The items were taken to Donetsk, in the Russian-controlled Donbas region, for “safety”, with the museum’s newly installed puppet director, Evgeny Gorlachev, stating that the gold artefacts were not just for Ukrainians but “of great cultural value for the entire former Soviet Union”. His carefully chosen words were designed to erase the collection’s Ukrainian heritage and replace it with a Soviet one, one that suggested Ukraine was back within Russia’s sphere of influence and control. ....

.... It is clear that Putin sees the Scythian gold as particularly central to Ukraine’s cultural identity and independence. It is not the first time he has tried to claim it for Russia. In 2014, examples of Scythian gold were on loan to the Allard Pierson museum in Amsterdam. Four of the Ukrainian museums that had issued the loans were in Crimea. As Putin invaded and annexed Crimea, he pressed the Netherlands to send the gold back. A protracted legal battle ensued and only in October 2021 did a judge finally rule that the works categorically belonged to the State Museum Fund of Ukraine and not the Russian-controlled Crimean museums (the works remain in the Dutch museum’s stores). ....

 

Earlier this century, the traveling Scythian Gold exhibit came to the Brooklyn Museum of Art, with many of these objects.  It was breathtaking.  More than that, the curators mated it with another original exhibition that focused on the marine trade from Greece, up to the Black Sea and into the hinterlands, focusing on elements such as wine and design, showing cross-cultural influences going both ways.  I went to that exhibit four times.

[Maithanet]

War updates:  Lyman has fallen to the Russians.  There is fighting going on in Severodonetsk.  The Ukrainians are not abandoning the city, in spite of the threat of encirclement.  At the moment they are (barely) holding supply lines open, and if they can continue to do that, this will be a very difficult position for the Russians to take. 

Also reports of a river crossing by the UA near Kherson to establish a new bridgehead there.  Not a lot of great info on it yet.  In the past month there have been a couple of other crossings the UA has done that seem like a big deal, but then nothing much happens.  So, it's possible this is the start of a new offensive (could be small or big) around Kherson.  It's also possible this is just preparation for a possible later offensive, which is still weeks/months away. 

[broken one]

35 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Also reports of a river crossing by the UA near Kherson to establish a new bridgehead there.  Not a lot of great info on it yet.  In the past month there have been a couple of other crossings the UA has done that seem like a big deal, but then nothing much happens.  So, it's possible this is the start of a new offensive (could be small or big) around Kherson.  It's also possible this is just preparation for a possible later offensive, which is still weeks/months away. 

Russians claimed they had repelled the attempt. They bring more troops to the area of Kherson and strenghten defence.

Ukrainians made small progress NE of Kharkiv, probably nothing significant.

14 Su-25 aircrafts (probably Bulgarian) arrived to Ukraine in pieces.

[Zorral]

Drones. Crutches. Potatoes. Russians Crowdfund Their Army.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/28/world/europe/russian-soldiers-military-supplies.html

Quote

 

Natalia Abiyeva is a real-estate agent specializing in rental apartments in the city of Nizhny Novgorod, east of Moscow. But lately, she has been learning a lot about battlefield medicine.

Packets of hemostatic granules, she found out, can stop catastrophic bleeding; decompression needles can relieve pressure in a punctured chest. At a military hospital, a wounded commander told her that a comrade died in his arms because there were no airway tubes available to keep him breathing.

Ms. Abiyeva, 37, has decided to take matters into her own hands. On Wednesday, she and two friends set out in a van for the Ukrainian border for the seventh time since the war began in February, bringing onions, potatoes, two-way radios, binoculars, first-aid gear and even a mobile dentistry set. Since the start of the war, she said, she has raised more than $60,000 to buy food, clothes and equipment for Russian soldiers serving in Ukraine.

“The whole world, it seems to me, is supporting our great enemies,” Ms. Abiyeva said in a phone interview. “We also want to offer our support, to say, ‘Guys, we’re with you.’”

Across Russia, grass-roots movements, led in large part by women, have sprung up to crowdsource aid for Russian soldiers. They are evidence of some public backing for President Vladimir V. Putin’s war effort — but also of the growing recognition among Russians that their military, vaunted before the invasion as a world-class fighting force, turned out to be woefully underprepared for a major conflict. ....

 

This is mind-boggling:

... The most sought-after items include imported drones and night vision scopes, a sign that Russia’s $66 billion defense budget has not managed to produce essential gear for modern warfare. ...

Yet ... Russian women can obtain them? 

My gawd, you could buy twitter with 66 billion.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

My initial reaction. A real estate agent, ofc. 

[Werthead]

It looks like it's a race between Russia claiming victory in the Donbas versus the economic damage from the sanctions reaching down into the army versus the Ukrainians being able to counter-attack. A Russian finance minister said yesterday that Russia's economic situation is so precarious he does not believe it can sustain even the current special operation, let alone a drawn-out operation lasting months more with masses more equipment or mobilised troops, which was then very quickly walked back on by government.

The Ukrainians are also trying to mass for counter-attacks but whilst they have the numbers of troops, there are question marks over how many can be equipped and how well. The $5 billion a month deficit they are running is hugely problematic for them and although they do have long-range heavy artillery, they do not have it in sufficient mass to convincingly challenge Russia anywhere other than the most outstretched areas of their lines. They do now have quite large masses of tanks, but they seem to be unwilling to commit them without better artillery and aerial support. There may be military-political divisions as well over when and where and maybe even whether to commit their current forces to offensive operations versus using them to defend the rest of the country, despite the current situation not really being tenable. They have been sending reinforcements into Donetsk and there seems some optimism on being able to hold it even if Luhansk falls, but there's a lot of question marks over how much more fight Russia has in it and Russia's willingness to mobilise more troops. They might be close to exhausting their current offensive momentum or they might have another few weeks or even months in it.   

The pressure on a negotiated settlement is growing from all sides (again some suggestions that China is back-channelling Putin with some sort of deal for a short to medium-term peace in exchange for longer-term Chinese-Russian ties) but Putin does not seem willing to countenance a deal in which Russia gives up any of the land it has already taken, and even some Russian commentators now seem to be saying that if they don't reach a deal soon, they may risk losing their gains in a future Ukrainian counter-offensive which could only be stopped by a tricky escalation from their own side, at least with regards to mobilisation.

Some interesting stories today that somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 young, educated Russians, a lot of them men in prime recruiting age, have left Russia for Armenia due to an Armenian recruitment drive which, coincidentally, removes them from the military recruitment pool. Armenia seems to be carefully balancing the value of recruiting from that labour pool whilst not pissing off their Russian allies too much.

[ThinkerX]

dratted article vanished on me, but supposedly a couple of ranking Russian officials from the Far East ended up in serious hot water (to the point of being termed traitors) for publicly opposing the Ukraine war.

 

My take remains unchanged: Russia does not have the manpower or equipment to sustain even moderately prolonged low-key Ukrainian war. If they persist, there will be major problems in the 'outlying regions.'  Likewise, given that Russia is a kleptocracy where competence is viewed with grave suspicion, I doubt they'll be able to make much headway in rebuilding/modernizing their army.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

9 Kilometers in 12 hours is a fairly significant rate of advance.  Hope it is accurate and continues:

 

[Werthead]

Yup, the Russians have made several advances on Kryvyi Rih and been repulsed. The city is heavily fortified as both a fallback point and supply run into Dnipro and hence all of eastern Ukraine, the Russians on the southern axis have not had enough reinforcements to take it. This is the problem they had before, that not taking Mykolaiv and trying to advance past it to the north just leaves their entire flank prone to attack and collapsing. This is the third or fourth time it's happened and it looks like the Russians have fallen back much further than previously, almost all the way to Kherson.

Retaking Kherson, though very difficult, would probably encourage the Russians to abandon all thoughts of moving on Odesa and Moldova and might make a shorter-term end to the conflict more likely, just focusing on the land bridge east of the Dnieper and on the Donbas. That's still a hell of a loss of territory for Ukraine though.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Russian speaking Ukrainians are not an oppressed marginalized minority in Ukraine… FYI:

 

[Winterfell is Burning]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Russian speaking Ukrainians are not an oppressed marginalized minority in Ukraine… FYI:

 

She clearly is either a Neonazi or someone that was brainwashed by the West, and should listen to someone that really knows what he's talking about like Chomsky.

[broken one]

Many members of Azov battalion are Russian speakers, in the beginning of its existence it consisted mostly of men from Kharkiv. Their commander compared them to the IRA members who do not speak Irish. 

btw. I watch yt channel of a guy who reads Komsomolska Pravda (Russian tabloid) and briefly reports on what they write about the war. Recently there was an article about items that were found in Azovstal complex by Russian soldiers. Shock and terror - they found some marijuana. Astute journalist concluded that this is a proof of Rastafarianism spreading among Azov soldiers. 

Heil Selassie!

[Maithanet]

Additional reliable reports coming out that the Ukrainians did make a small, but successful counterattack east of Kherson.  They find a weak spot in the Russian lines, pushed through, crossed a small river and now the Russians are remaking thier lines further south.  Not a huge deal, but indicative that the Russian forces are indeed pretty thin on the ground in the southern area.  If the Ukrainians are able to put together a mobile reserve force for counterattacks, there's reason to think they'll have some success in that area. 

The Donbas offensive grinds on in the east, but if anything Russia seems to have lost momentum from a few days ago.  Ukrainian forces are still threatened in Severodonetsk, but not cut off and not retreating.  Severodonetsk is the last medium sized city in Luhansk oblast, which makes it a meaningful symbolic prize, but it is hardly a war winning location to take.  It's just a good example of how small cities can take on an outsized importance in war, far beyond thier actual strategic value.

[Kalbear]

Fascinating story of some Americans fighting for Ukraine. In particular the story of them having javelins but not having the battery to power them was memorable.

 

[Makk]

On 5/26/2022 at 9:44 PM, Knight Of Winter said:

Hopefully this would be a good place to ask this question: has anyone wandered across some good and unbiased analysis in Ukraine war from military perspective? No heated language, no biases, no wishful thinking, just cold hard analysis written by someone with military expertise. It could be anything - website, blog, video etc.

Neither of these links below are unbiased but they will not hold back reporting on Russian advances. They both go into fairly detailed maps to give you a pretty good understanding of what is happening each day. Either of these will get you daily information much better than any major news network imo.

 

This guy is former US infantry. He is a bit goofy but I think his videos are well worth watching. He will do daily maps along with combing Russian state TV for amusing/horrific excerpts.

Speak the Truth

 

This guy is a Ukrainian though not military (as far as I know). He will also do maps and seems quite insightful. 

Denys Davydov

 

[broken one]

9 hours ago, KalVsWade said:

Fascinating story of some Americans fighting for Ukraine. In particular the story of them having javelins but not having the battery to power them was memorable.

 

Watched an interview with Polish volunteer, talked about forged stuff they get (not working turniquets and vests that turn out not to be bullet-proof), lack of powerbanks and Kevlar helmets (even some foreigners wear steel ones or just caps) and how one of Canadians from his unit had to return home after all his equipment was stolen.

 https://youtu.be/is4VMdKOI0A

[Werthead]

The Russians lost another Su-34 over the weekend. First top-tier Russian jet loss for a week or so. They also lost another Su-25, though that's more expected as it's a close-ground support aircraft and much easier prey for MANPADs.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

The Russians lost another Su-34 over the weekend. First top-tier Russian jet loss for a week or so. They also lost another Su-25, though that's more expected as it's a close-ground support aircraft and much easier prey for MANPADs.

Any more news about the fighting in the South?

[Werthead]

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

Any more news about the fighting in the South?

Mixed claims from both sides. A general Ukrainian advance NE of Kherson succeeded in taking Davydiv Brid (after blowing up a Russian ammo depot) and launched attacks on Lozove, Bilohirka and Andrrivka. The Ukrainians claimed this was a successful raid which pushed Russian forces back and disrupted communication and supply lines, whilst the Russians claim it was a trap they set up which successfully eliminated about 150 Ukrainian soldiers.

The penetration of the Ukrainian forces into the Russian lines seems to be disputed. Several sources suggesting a much more significant victory for Ukraine have been disputed even by normally pro-Ukrainian sources, whilst Russian claims of a total rout of the attacking Ukrainian forces likewise appear to be highly exaggerated.

Several intelligence sources do suggest that the Russians were building up reinforcements behind Kherson and the Dnieper for resumption of the Mykolaiv-Odesa offensive, but these have had to be diverted to the Donbas, leaving Kherson under-defended. This also happened before the main Donbas offensive started and there was a period of a week when the Russians were very alarmed that they could lose Kherson, but the Ukrainians did not have the offensive mass to take advantage. Some suggestions that Ukraine has built up larger forces in the area that could exploit a breakthrough.

It does look like Ukraine has the military forces to retake Kherson, but they are aware that if the Russians poured 110% effort into holding the city, thanks to the ease of reinforcement via nearby Crimea, that could create a kessel to wear down Ukrainian forces just as Mariupol proved to be one for the Russians (although Kherson does not have the same defensive infrastructure). The Ukrainians are also, clearly, held back by their reluctance to completely level cities in taking them, which the Russians have no problem with. The Russians have also flip-flopped between abandoning the city for a much more sensible defensive line along the Dnieper and orders telling them to take all of Kherson Oblast, which they've been struggling to achieve.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

46 minutes ago, Werthead said:

It does look like Ukraine has the military forces to retake Kherson, but they are aware that if the Russians poured 110% effort into holding the city, thanks to the ease of reinforcement via nearby Crimea, that could create a kessel to wear down Ukrainian forces just as Mariupol proved to be one for the Russians (although Kherson does not have the same defensive infrastructure). The Ukrainians are also, clearly, held back by their reluctance to completely level cities in taking them, which the Russians have no problem with. The Russians have also flip-flopped between abandoning the city for a much more sensible defensive line along the Dnieper and orders telling them to take all of Kherson Oblast, which they've been struggling to achieve.

Could the Ukrainians bypass and encircle Kherson?  It isn’t as though the population of Kherson is friendly to occupying Russian forces.  Or does the Dienper splitting the city make such a prospect dicey?