Ukraine 15 - Si vis pacem, para bellum

[Werthead]

29 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Doesn't always work that way. Stalin died in his bed after killing multiple generations of Soviet leaders.

Stalin I think was in a special position because of WWII. His victory there (after completely botching the start) I think made his position almost completely unassailable.

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Doesn't always work that way. Stalin died in his bed after killing multiple generations of Soviet leaders.

Fun fact about the assassination of caesar; out of the dozens of senators who agreed to take part in it literally only three actually moved to kill ceasar when the time finally came.

 

[Red Tiger]

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Fun fact about the assassination of caesar; out of the dozens of senators who agreed to take part in it literally only three actually moved to kill ceasar when the time finally came.

I wonder if Putin's killers will only move in when he's on death's door.

[Maltaran]

9 hours ago, Toth said:

So... I'm hearing the next Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Mariupol?

Zelensky’s statement I think said he wants to hold it in Mariupol at some point in the future but didn’t specifically say next year

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Fun fact about the assassination of caesar; out of the dozens of senators who agreed to take part in it literally only three actually moved to kill ceasar when the time finally came.

 

There were so many they got in each other's way, and some stabbed each other, when the first one actually did it.

[Zorral]

17 hours ago, maarsen said:

Putin seems to be on steroids?

That's been said for years.

 

[Werthead]

Putin setting out to stop 1 country getting into NATO and ending up with a net of 2 countries getting into NATO would seem to be a prime idiot sandwich moment.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Putin setting out to stop 1 country getting into NATO and ending up with a net of 2 countries getting into NATO would seem to be a prime idiot sandwich moment.

Not to mention how pre-existing NATO partners who were debating their continued place in NATO and US relations have not only strengthened their NATO ties but also increased their military spending, including Germany under a SPD and Green government! Plus, encouraging one of Russia's most lucrative trading partners for their energy export-based economy to become less energy dependent on Russian energy? Yeah. Overall, it's a pretty strategic blunder for international aims. 

[Toth]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

Stalin I think was in a special position because of WWII. His victory there (after completely botching the start) I think made his position almost completely unassailable.

Haven't there also been rumors going on about Beria having at the very least helped with his death? Even if it wasn't poison, certainly with the feet-dragging.

[Werthead]

Interesting report that a Luhansk PR regiment driven back from Kharkiv to the Russian border was denied permission to enter Russian territory for resupply or evacuation back to the Donbas, triggering a furious confrontation between the LPR and Russian soldiers.

There was an (unconfirmed) report a few weeks back that DPR soldiers near Kherson were ordered forwards by the Russians, but the DPR angrily accused the Russians of using them as cannon fodder, leading to shots being fired.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

21 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Interesting report that a Luhansk PR regiment driven back from Kharkiv to the Russian border was denied permission to enter Russian territory for resupply or evacuation back to the Donbas, triggering a furious confrontation between the LPR and Russian soldiers.

There was an (unconfirmed) report a few weeks back that DPR soldiers near Kherson were ordered forwards by the Russians, but the DPR angrily accused the Russians of using them as cannon fodder, leading to shots being fired.

These are the people you want as your allies or countryfolk, Luhansk? 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Reminds me of the relationship between Unionists in NI and the rest of the UK. 

Just sayin... 

[DireWolfSpirit]

Didn't the Chechnya forces pretty much set up in the "rear with the gear" earlier, giving the Russians the cannon fodder experience?

The rule should be the guys that started it should lead by example. Of course they've all made their beds together so no pity from me which invader the Ukraine's pick off first.

[SpaceChampion]

Russian demographics is really not great for waging a war of conquest...

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

 

[Werthead]

8 hours ago, SpaceChampion said:

Russian demographics is really not great for waging a war of conquest...

Putin is obsessed with demographics. He's said that if the Soviet Union had never fallen, they'd have over 500 million people by now and would be secure for all time. Conquering other countries to add their populations to Russia's seems to be his solution. It's a solution with fairly significant flaws though (starting with Russia's starting population not really being big enough to sustain the massive military campaigns needed to do that and Russian military tactics not putting a premium on keeping troops alive, which is a bizarre combination).

You can also see the near-halving of the percentage from the bracket he's in (65-69) to the bracket he'll be in in a few months (70-74), which is a major concern to him.

[broken one]

13 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Conquering other countries to add their populations to Russia's seems to be his solution.

you will be assimilated, resistance is futile

[Werthead]

Ukrainian forces NE of Kharkiv have reached the Russian border.

[broken one]

Ive encountered an opinion, that because Ukrainians will not be able to counter-attack in direction of Kherson (big losses and uncertain outcome) and the same applies to direction of Lugansk and Donetsk, what they should try to do is to interrupt the land corridor from Donetsk to Crimea and retrieve Melitopol. Succeeding they would annihilate the only strategic goal achieved by Russians by now. Seems Russians understand this, it is said now they are fortifying their positions along the corridor.

Also one should not get too excited about the success of Kharkiv "offensive",  both sides had moved most of their forces from Kharkiv area to the more important theater of operation in the South. Remnants clashed and the Ukrainian remnant turned out to be more effective. In theory the success gives Ukrainians some opportunities to harass Russian supply lines but it is no big deal.

[Werthead]

15 minutes ago, broken one said:

Ive encountered an opinion, that because Ukrainians will not be able to counter-attack in direction of Kherson (big losses and uncertain outcome) and the same applies to direction of Lugansk and Donetsk, what they should try to do is to interrupt the land corridor from Donetsk to Crimea and retrieve Melitopol. Succeeding they would annihilate the only strategic goal achieved by Russians by now. Seems Russians understand this, it is said now they are fortifying their positions along the corridor.

Also one should not get too excited about the success of Kharkiv "offensive",  both sides had moved most of their forces from Kharkiv area to the more important theater of operation in the South. Remnants clashed and the Ukrainian remnant turned out to be more effective. In theory the success gives Ukrainians some opportunities to harass Russian supply lines but it is no big deal.

I think that thinking has been true up to right now, but might be shifting. The Ukrainians now have long-range artillery, they've maintained their airforce (small as it is) and they have better air defences and far more tanks than what they started the war with, all of which should assist them in an offensive. The Russians have suffered massive material and manpower losses, their morale is low (and seems to be dwindling) and in a lot of areas they are going over to the defensive because they no longer have forwards momentum. So the Ukrainians do have a window for hitting them with long-range weaponry to try to break them and send them home. Kherson is the logical area to do that as it retakes the largest city to fall intact to the Russians and it's hanging on the end of their line, not to mention it's already well within range of Ukrainian attacks. The problem is that lack of intercept time and capability for Russian aircraft coming in from the Black Sea and being well within range of Russian warships operating out to sea, and the pinning down of Ukrainian forces in Odesa that are really needed to help drive a southern offensive.

That's why I think we're seeing the major counter-offensive action starting to develop around Izium, because the Ukrainians want to engage the largest mass of Russian forces (or their supply lines) to degrade them and send them backing. If they can do that, then other theatres should be easier to mop up afterwards. Even if Russia was to fully or partially mobilise tomorrow, the Ukrainians would have months to defeat the current forces before those new forces came on-stream.