Ukraine 15 - Si vis pacem, para bellum

[Maithanet]

About the Russian News, that one guy seems to be the voice of "winning the war in Ukraine will be hard/impossible".  He made a similar statement on TV on Feb 20 that the Russian forces would have a very difficult time in Ukraine.  He appeared a month ago saying that they were overstretched and Ukraine is not collapsing at all.  Then this appearance. 

It is odd that this one guy seems to get a monthly appearance to give an accurate depiction of the war, and no one else.  I don't know if this is Putin trying to keep his options open or if someone at a lower level is just able to squeeze this level of dissent in. 

[Werthead]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

About the Russian News, that one guy seems to be the voice of "winning the war in Ukraine will be hard/impossible".  He made a similar statement on TV on Feb 20 that the Russian forces would have a very difficult time in Ukraine.  He appeared a month ago saying that they were overstretched and Ukraine is not collapsing at all.  Then this appearance. 

It is odd that this one guy seems to get a monthly appearance to give an accurate depiction of the war, and no one else.  I don't know if this is Putin trying to keep his options open or if someone at a lower level is just able to squeeze this level of dissent in. 

There's been a few. I know that a month into the war there was one debate with about four or five people on it and they all basically took this line, which was shocking in that moment. The next night they were talking about an imminent glorious victory and Russian tanks carrying on westwards and not stopping until they got to Lisbon, of course.

I get the impression this is more about setting up options. By allowing people to say this occasionally, they can then use that to prepare people for a minimalist victory in Ukraine which isn't really what they wanted, whilst pouring the blame on NATO.

Maybe coincidentally, there's been some huffing today over the peace talks because Russia has apparently refused to cede any ground in the talks despite Ukrainian compromises (mostly of the "okay, we won't join NATO for now," kind they have been saying since the start of the conflict) and Russia's position seems to be, "We're going to keep the territory we've captured and held," to which Ukraine is saying, "Fair enough," whilst driving them back on several fronts. Russia isn't giving Ukraine a valid reason to stop fighting because Russia is not winning, or at least decisively enough to outstretch Ukrainian victories elsewhere.

[broken one]

17 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Probably the last time we'll be seeing that guy. 

I think this is sort of licensed criticism, or/and this guy is really respected, the opposition against his opinion was rather weak. Girkin is tolerated too, although what he says is imho more dangerous.

[Werthead]

Khodaryonok is highly respected in Russian and overseas military circles. His analysis of early February was that the war was a moronic idea and Russia could get its arse handed to it. He also published a realistic and very critical assessment of Soviet military tactics in WWII, suggesting that the USSR won because it simply outnumbered the Germans, the Germans could not force-project enough military power into the vast spaces of the USSR to win and because of American lend lease support, a critical point that has been significantly downplayed in recent Russian military history for political reasons (although also probably overplayed by the Americans). This caused a furore in Russian military circles, but he emerged with his reputation intact.

He's also someone who probably knows where a lot of bodies are buried, and he's seen as a weighty figure (not the "let's blow up the Atlantic Ocean with a megabomb!" type of crackpot) with allies in the regime. He's had a radio show dedicated to military analysis for many years. Silencing him would not be a good idea.

 

[Gorn]

56 minutes ago, Werthead said:

There's been a few. I know that a month into the war there was one debate with about four or five people on it and they all basically took this line, which was shocking in that moment. The next night they were talking about an imminent glorious victory and Russian tanks carrying on westwards and not stopping until they got to Lisbon, of course.

I get the impression this is more about setting up options. By allowing people to say this occasionally, they can then use that to prepare people for a minimalist victory in Ukraine which isn't really what they wanted, whilst pouring the blame on NATO.

Maybe coincidentally, there's been some huffing today over the peace talks because Russia has apparently refused to cede any ground in the talks despite Ukrainian compromises (mostly of the "okay, we won't join NATO for now," kind they have been saying since the start of the conflict) and Russia's position seems to be, "We're going to keep the territory we've captured and held," to which Ukraine is saying, "Fair enough," whilst driving them back on several fronts. Russia isn't giving Ukraine a valid reason to stop fighting because Russia is not winning, or at least decisively enough to outstretch Ukrainian victories elsewhere.

I've seen it stated that Ukraine's window for any counter-offensives will be really limited - basically, between the moment that Russian army becomes incapable of further offensive operations, and the moment when Putin finally realizes it. Because when he does, he will annex whatever he holds at that moment, and threaten a nuclear response to any Ukrainian offensives on that territory.

This is also presumably the reason why Ukraine is defending Severodonetsk and Lysychansk so stubbornly. Those two cities are the last meaningful parts of the Luhansk Oblast that they still hold, and the only thing preventing Putin from annexing it in its full borders.

[Toth]

 

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, Gorn said:

I've seen it stated that Ukraine's window for any counter-offensives will be really limited - basically, between the moment that Russian army becomes incapable of further offensive operations, and the moment when Putin finally realizes it. Because when he does, he will annex whatever he holds at that moment, and threaten a nuclear response to any Ukrainian offensives on that territory.

The Ukrainians have demonstrated that they are not going to cower in fear at the threat of Russian nukes.  If Russia says that Kherson and Mariupol are actually Russian territory, I'm pretty doubtful that the Ukrainians will change their approach at all.  If Russia chooses to use nukes in Ukraine, then Russia will either be destroyed completely (along with much of the rest of the world) or will become a global pariah, abandoned even by their current allies like China and India.  Absolutely no one wants to see nuclear missiles deployed, and a pithy statement about annexing territory isn't going to change that. 

[Werthead]

Switzerland is apparently planning to enter into an enhanced security and cooperation partnership with NATO in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

Switzerland will not join NATO and will maintain political neutrality, but its military will work alongside NATO training missions and will buy equipment from the alliance.

[Maithanet]

For the first time in many weeks there are signs of real battlefield successes for Russia.  The massed bombardment of the Donbas area seems to be paying off.

 

[Maithanet]

But of course not everything is going the Russian's way.  Further north (east of Kharkiv), the Ukrainians have made an official statement that they have crossed the Donets in two locations.

Note that the Lyman in this map (east of Kharkiv) is different from the one surrounded by Russia in my previous post. 

[Werthead]

Some reports that several Russian units have refused deployment to Ukraine and some units already there are demanding they are withdrawn. The biggest problem is in the 70th Guards Motorised Regiment, where several units have refused orders to advance and some have demanded to be returned to their normal deployment areas on Russian soil. Reportedly there's huge tensions between soldiers, officers and FSB "agents and informants" operating within some units. Also some suggestions that troublesome units have been deployed instead to the most dangerous areas.

[Corvinus85]

Russia has moved on to using "lasers" in Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-touts-new-generation-blinding-laser-weapons-2022-05-18/

[Maithanet]

First person account from a Russian infantryman.  Like anything, it's almost impossible to verify if this is real or propaganda put out by Ukraine (definitely not Russian propaganda given how FUBAR everything is). 

Highlights include:  Russian troops are given only 15 bullets to learn how to shoot, then sent to the front lines.  Receive no training on how to use any other weapons and just have to ask fellow soldiers how to use things like machine guns or grenades.  The company he is in was so understrength that it was in the field for a week with just 13 troops, 8 of them fresh replacements.  They were so weak that Ukrainian military didn't consider them a worthwhile artillery target. 

[Wilbur]

So far the Russian military adventure is making Catch 22 seem like a documentary.

[broken one]

1 hour ago, Wilbur said:

So far the Russian military adventure is making Catch 22 seem like a documentary.

It's Catch 22 adaptation, embedded in Angband, Middle-earth: "Misadventures of Orcs"

[Werthead]

According to British military intelligence, the Russians have fired a large number of officers: the head of the 1st Guards Tank Army was relieved for failing to capture Kharkiv, the commander of the Black Sea Fleet has been suspended following the loss of the Moskva and reportedly Gerasimov is out of favour with Putin.

Russian soldiers have improvised a release mechanism to very small recon UAVs so they can drop single hand grenades, in an attempt to reach parity with the much more heavily-armed Ukrainian drones. Reportedly Russian soldiers have near-mutinied over their inferiority in armed drones, especially as the Ukrainian EW systems have proven excellent at disabling Russian Orlans.

Russian cargo and logistics ships have been spotted on the Black Sea with Pantsirs strapped to their rear decks as improvised point defence systems. How effective that is remains to be seen.

[Maithanet]

On 5/18/2022 at 2:45 PM, Maithanet said:

First person account from a Russian infantryman.  Like anything, it's almost impossible to verify if this is real or propaganda put out by Ukraine (definitely not Russian propaganda given how FUBAR everything is).

Part 2.

Highlights include:  Russians make constant ineffective attacks on a city, but the attacks are always piecemeal and understrength.  In order to get to the town they're attacking you must walk 7 km in full kit while under artillery fire, and thus by the time they reach it, many men are injured and everyone is exhausted.  Most men refuse to follow orders to attack the city, and the few that do go forward and get chewed up.  When the order comes to attack again the next day, even more men refuse.  This soldier is moved to a camp of men unwilling to fight, where they do manual labor instead.  There are a hundred of them who refuse to join the assault on this one town, including many men who have seen a lot of combat.  Trust in officers is nonexistent, he wonders if they are being used as targets to get Ukrainian artillery to expose themselves. 

[Zorral]

For a lighter moment ....

 

[Wilbur]

I feel like using bags of ammonium nitrate to form the walls of a bunker may be, in the long run, counter-productive, no matter how common bags of the stuff may be around agricultural areas...

But you do you, Russian military.

Бабченко: У Руській Лозовій для зміцнення своїх позицій росіяни використовували мішки з аміачною селітрою, - ФОТО | Новини (057.ua)

[Derfel Cadarn]

1 hour ago, Wilbur said:

I feel like using bags of ammonium nitrate to form the walls of a bunker may be, in the long run, counter-productive, no matter how common bags of the stuff may be around agricultural areas...

But you do you, Russian military.

Бабченко: У Руській Лозовій для зміцнення своїх позицій росіяни використовували мішки з аміачною селітрою, - ФОТО | Новини (057.ua)

Real men dig trenches in radioactive dirt. Functioning organs are for pussies.