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Covid 47: Waving Invisibly


Zorral
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Main political opposition leader here said on return from his overseas visit to a few countries he has decided that the world has moved on from COVID, and so should we. In an online meeting today with some US govt people the US head of delegation said that there are still large numbers of people working from home, because of COVID, and it will probably be a while before there is a return to the office as in pre-pandemic times. Doesn't seem like they've moved on from COVID. Interestingly we're closer to pre-pandemic working patterns than US federal govt agencies, even though we are experiencing relatively higher daily cases and deaths to the daily US numbers. Perhaps we've moved on too quickly?

 

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21 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Oh shit.

Sister is in hospital with covid. She's clinically extremely vulnerable, immunocompromised, and operates on about 40% lung capacity at the best of times.

Ah man, I'm sorry. Will keep you & your sister in my thoughts :grouphug:

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13 minutes ago, Raja said:

Spent all week admitting covid patients to the hospital, and now I have it for the third time. Sigh. :bang:

That sucks. Get well soon!

 

12 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Oh shit.

Sister is in hospital with covid. She's clinically extremely vulnerable, immunocompromised, and operates on about 40% lung capacity at the best of times.

Very sorry to hear that. Hopefully she recovers quickly from it.

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I'm so sorry to hear this, Raja.  :(  I hope it's not worse than the previous times.

~~~~~~~~

"Covid appears to have increased early-onset puberty around the world. Getting your period “early” now means getting it when you’re younger than 8. People for whom a pregnant 10-year-old strains credulity should keep this in mind "(see US political thread if you don't know about this US scandal and abortion) .

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/03/1090498749/early-onset-puberty-has-increased-since-covid-19

 

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Good healing-get-over-covid-quickly thoughts for Which Tyler's sister and Raja!

I feel like this month will really be the test for me.  Two people in my office are out of the office with covid this week.  It's a small office so I interacted with both of them.  They both have had it before.  Then I attended the family wedding last weekend and out of 200 people, only 3 of us were wearing masks!  There were good opportunities to spread out in the church and be outside so it wasn't a total petri dish situation but there were moments during the reception, especially when I held my 6 month old 1st cousin who goes to day care.  But I kept my mask on.  So we shall see.  I'm going to be testing to double check.

(Incidentally - I had mentioned that I would not be eating at the reception and this worked out just great for me.  We stopped for ice cream before the wedding.  And then at the reception the food was apparently horrible so I did not miss out and we just stopped and got burgers on the way home.)

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7 hours ago, Zorral said:

 

I'm so sorry to hear this, Raja.  :(  I hope it's not worse than the previous times.

~~~~~~~~

"Covid appears to have increased early-onset puberty around the world. Getting your period “early” now means getting it when you’re younger than 8. People for whom a pregnant 10-year-old strains credulity should keep this in mind "(see US political thread if you don't know about this US scandal and abortion) .

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/03/1090498749/early-onset-puberty-has-increased-since-covid-19

 

That article doesn’t say Covid causes early on set puberty, please stop implying that it does. 

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https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/nyc-covid-transmission-soars-33-in-week-45-in-one-borough-chart-shows-ba-5-rise/3774981/

We are now officially at high risk level in all boroughs for covid.

Quote

 

What to Know

Omicron subvariant BA.5 now accounts for most NYC COVID cases, and all five boroughs are seeing skyrocketing transmission rates. Reinfection risk is also up and may be connected to the strain. People who have had COVID before and been vaccinated may not even experience symptoms

No new mandates have been implemented, but with all five NYC boroughs considered high-risk for community COVID spread by the CDC, local health and elected officials say masks indoors are advised for all

Staten Island is seeing the highest rolling new case rate in this latest wave, followed by Manhattan, Queens, the Bronx and Brooklyn, according to the latest data from the health department

COVID-19 transmission is up 33% in New York City in the last week and rising markedly in each of the five boroughs, new health department data out Thursday shows, amid a sixth pandemic wave fueled by what some have called the "worst version" of omicron yet.

The subvariant in question, the proven-to-be vaccine-resistant BA.5 out of South Africa, established national dominance earlier this month, according to the CDC, and now appears to be oversweeping New York City at a rapid rate.

The strain accounts for 57% of all positive COVID samples genetically sequenced for the week of data ending July 2, a statistic that emerged only as of Thursday's weekly update from the city health department. It likely is a significant undercount, considering just 12% of positives in the city underwent the process to isolate variants over the last week, and that the city's case count doesn't even include the likely flooding number of at-home confirmations that never get officially recorded.

Plus, there's the swell of people who don't experience symptoms significant enough, including from omicron's BA.5, to know they should test for COVID at all if they haven't had known exposures.

And while those who notice the widening line atop New York City's variant data page may wonder what omicron "other" means is on tap next, many find themselves reeling anew -- and frustrated by what has become a hamster wheel-like-environment that relentlessly churns out threat upon threat. These days, it's just a question of which borough will see it worse.

 

And the dorkdongs continue to toddle on, toddle on, whining, whining, whining that covid continues to be a dreadful threat, with dreadful effect on the social, medical, economic and emotional health and strength of us all, in ways various and, increasingly revealed to be nasty and cruel and lasting.

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This is the second and final week of the Nagoya Basho in Japan, and so far 20% of all the rikishi in the makauuchi division (the top tier) are out as a result of someone in their stables getting Covid.  Lots of fusensho matches yesterday, and an Ozeki and one of the wrestlers who was in the title chase had to drop out as a result of his heya getting Covid.

So far the Dewanoumi, Naruto, Tamanoi and Sadogatake heyas have withdrawn all of their wrestlers.  Apparently Omicron BA4/5 is running hot in Japan right now, so you know that members of the kyokai have it, too.

I was surprised when they announced that they would permit full fan attendance at Nagoya, but the demand for Ozumo and the need for the association to get some revenue apparently outweighed caution.  All the wrestlers traveling to Nagoya, all the fans in the stands, it just seems like the inevitable happened.

In geographically related gossip, we could be in for an actual (not a media misreporting) semiconductor bust, as there are whispers that Omicron BA4/5 has hit both Sumco and ShinEtsu, suppliers of about 60% of wafers worldwide.  So that ain't great, either.

 

 

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On 7/11/2022 at 1:01 PM, Week said:

Potential dangers of reinfection (draft paper)

 

Unfortunately, this seems to be more data-based rather than mechanism-based. Hope there will be more granular data and studies soon.

 

to be honest, that graph is essentially useless.  I certainly would not base any health care recommendations on it. long COVID is not well understood or even well characterized, so the data around it is very sketchy at best.  then add in the massive assumptions that are made to come up with an extremely simplistic graph.  doubt this paper gets published outside of his tweet. 

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Against  every instinct and inclination I was pulled to a birthday party of a very old and close friend.  They decided to hold it in one of those open secret, private speakeasy clubs that have become rife, and whose owner is an old and close friend. Which is why I didn't want to go.

It is the first time I've been in a bar since Covid.

Far more people were there than we were told to expect.  It was a/ced to a fair-thee-well -- freezing actually (while outside still sweltering around 90 degrees). There were a lot of people there I didn't know so I had no idea how seriously they take Covid safety protocols.  I wore a mask almost the whole time, though nobody else did, except Partner and Friend From Across the Street.  We left fairly quickly, though not as quickly as I wanted.  Our Dear Friend from Across the street currently has brother and his family down with covid, another brother down with Covid, his partner, who has cancer, also had covid, gotten in the hospital, and on our way home, he got a text that his daughter, doing training sessions with the Navy's Justice Agency, is now sick with Covid. He's been with all of them in the last few days, and tests all the time, but so far, nothing.

He and I both feel maybe our luck with Covid is about to run out.

We all will be testing a lot for the next few days.

 

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On 7/14/2022 at 7:33 AM, Which Tyler said:

Oh shit.

Sister is in hospital with covid. She's clinically extremely vulnerable, immunocompromised, and operates on about 40% lung capacity at the best of times.

Just an update on this, Sis is still in respiratory intensive care, and has had a visit from her consultant at the Brompton (took the train down to Exeter to see her and consult with the team).

She's doing better, and SPO2 is up to 92% - whilst on oxygen and not moving, still dropping to low 80s if she tries to turn over.

This is a notable improvement, though I don't know what her figures were at her trough.

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13 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Just an update on this, Sis is still in respiratory intensive care, and has had a visit from her consultant at the Brompton (took the train down to Exeter to see her and consult with the team).

She's doing better, and SPO2 is up to 92% - whilst on oxygen and not moving, still dropping to low 80s if she tries to turn over.

This is a notable improvement, though I don't know what her figures were at her trough.

I hope she continues to improve.

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Just yesterday I was talking to one of the other coaches after practice about the anti-vaccination crowd.  We both think that part of the reason that some people are anti-vaccination here in the States is that they are young enough never to have seen a polio victim.

Anyone who has been around a polio victim can understand exactly why you desperately want to get vaccinated; whereas without that strong, tangible example, it is just an idea that you can reject.

So today I see that polio is back in the US, although probably from an immigrant or visitor in New York.  Still, we could still get some tangible examples of this preventable disease, unfortunately.

N.Y. state detects polio case, first in the U.S. since 2013 (statnews.com)

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There's a difference between being anti-vax and choosing not to get vaccinated. Some people think vaccination of the vulnerable is sensible but because they assess their vulnerability to be low they chose not to get vaccinated. Whether that's a good or bad risk decision can be debated, but they are not anti-vax. I would say a lot of people who fall into the young, healthy and unvaxed camp are not anti-vax, they've just made a personal risk decision. And their decision has perhaps been influenced by never having seen the effects of something like polio, and perhaps they would make a different decision with more information.

Anti-vaxers on the other hand care not about things like polio or smallpox being controlled or eradicated due to vaccination. They are fanatically opposed to vaccination and rational argument won't make them budge. They are also often statistically challenged by seeing that vaccinated people are dying from COVID-19, and they have no understanding that risk of death is a lot greater if you are unvaxed. They just see raw numbers and think the vaccine actually makes things worse.

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3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

There's a difference between being anti-vax and choosing not to get vaccinated. Some people think vaccination of the vulnerable is sensible but because they assess their vulnerability to be low they chose not to get vaccinated. Whether that's a good or bad risk decision can be debated, but they are not anti-vax. I would say a lot of people who fall into the young, healthy and unvaxed camp are not anti-vax, they've just made a personal risk decision. And their decision has perhaps been influenced by never having seen the effects of something like polio, and perhaps they would make a different decision with more information.

Anti-vaxers on the other hand care not about things like polio or smallpox being controlled or eradicated due to vaccination. They are fanatically opposed to vaccination and rational argument won't make them budge. They are also often statistically challenged by seeing that vaccinated people are dying from COVID-19, and they have no understanding that risk of death is a lot greater if you are unvaxed. They just see raw numbers and think the vaccine actually makes things worse.

Problem is a lot of vulnerable people can’t get vaxxed, and so are relying on the people around then to be vaxxed. So of someone can’t take a polio vbaccine, it doesn’t really matter if almost everyone else is vaxxed because no one’s catching it to spread it, ie herd immunity.

With covid, admittedly, the vaccines arent really stopping the spread, but by lessening severity it at least reduces hospital admissiona, freeing up resources for serious cases, and reducing the exposure of healthcare staff (and vulnerable patients) to the virus

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