#16 Ukraine the brave, the whole World is watching!

[Gorn]

Well, this is pretty huge:

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357

Quote

 

Vladimir Putin's health is a subject of intense conversation inside the Biden administration after the intelligence community produced its fourth comprehensive assessment at the end of May. The classified U.S. report says Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer, three U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports tell Newsweek.

The assessments also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March, the officials say.

The high-ranking officials, who represent three separate intelligence agencies, are concerned that Putin is increasingly paranoid about his hold on power, a status that makes for a rocky and unpredictable course in Ukraine. But it is one, they say, that also makes the prospects of nuclear war less likely.

"Putin's grip is strong but no longer absolute," says one of the senior intelligence officers with direct access to the reports. "The jockeying inside the Kremlin has never been more intense during his rule, everyone sensing that the end is near."

All three officials—one from the office of the Director of National Intelligence, one a retired Air Force senior officer, and one from the Defense Intelligence Agency—caution that the Russian leader's isolation makes it more difficult for U.S. intelligence to precisely assess Putin's status and health.

 

Newsweek is a serious publication, not a clickbait aggregator, and I don't think they would publish this lightly.

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Gorn said:

Well, this is pretty huge:

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357

Newsweek is a serious publication, not a clickbait aggregator, and I don't think they would publish this lightly.

Maybe so, but the conclusions of the article are pretty obvious: the intelligence is indicative, but so was the intelligence that Bin Laden was going to keel over and die at any moment from the mid-1990s onwards (he lived for another 15 years) and the intelligence that both Hussein and Gaddafi were mad and about to be overthrown (Gadaffi survived another 20 years past that point, Hussein another 15).

Putin is older than all of them at the point those rumours started circulating, but even if he is ill with cancer or something else, he could still live for longer than the Ukrainian crisis will take to fully unfold. As far as we know, his favoured successors are all more hardline than he is, and would not necessarily immediately end the conflict and seek to restore relations with the US and Europe.

[Luzifer's right hand]

3 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Maybe so, but the conclusions of the article are pretty obvious: the intelligence is indicative, but so was the intelligence that Bin Laden was going to keel over and die at any moment from the mid-1990s onwards (he lived for another 15 years) and the intelligence that both Hussein and Gaddafi were mad and about to be overthrown (Gadaffi survived another 20 years past that point, Hussein another 15).

Putin is older than all of them at the point those rumours started circulating, but even if he is ill with cancer or something else, he could still live for longer than the Ukrainian crisis will take to fully unfold. As far as we know, his favoured successors are all more hardline than he is, and would not necessarily immediately end the conflict and seek to restore relations with the US and Europe.

Although if he has cancer and there was an assassination attempt his paranoia is sensible.  I mean you definitely don't want to get COVID if you are getting treatment for cancer and if people are trying to kill you not trusting anyone outside of a small circle is actually rational. A lot of cancers have good treatment options especially if a person is older and has access to the best treatments on the planet.

[Wilbur]

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

It is hard for me to really respect the idea that real concessions need to be made to Putin lest he feel threatened personally.  Because nobody has control over how Putin feels, that is just chasing a shadow.  The idea that European powers should push Ukraine to give away territory for thus purpose feels very much like they are just making an excuse because it is better for them (ie their desire for cheap energy to avoid recession).

I agree entirely.

But apparently this idea has taken hold of countries like Switzerland and Israel, who have repeatedly blocked Ukraine's access to specific weapons, and Germany and France, who have slow-played providing weapons that they originally promised.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kharkiv has gotten underway again. Ukrainian forces pushing due north towards Kozacha Lopan (where a Ukrainian push a month or so back was defeated) and Hoptivka to try to secure the border. Russian forces moving south towards Borshova where they've met heavy Ukrainian resistance. What Russia is doing here is unclear, whether they are positioning for a big push from the north towards Kharkiv or just trying to shore up defensive lines rather than abandon all territory north of Kharkiv, which would be a huge victory for Ukraine. East of that line, Ukraine seems to be gathering forces for a big push at Vovchansk, which would allow them to cut one of the main railheads supplying the Donbas offensive. They crossed the river a couple of weeks ago and have been reinforcing ever since.

Ukraine has reinforced its bridgehead towards Davydiv Brid in the Kherson area. Russian forces seem to be genuinely rattled in the area. They destroyed the bridge at Velyka Oleksandrivka and fell back to the SE of that river, which is shaping up to be the new defensive line. It looks like these Ukrainian offensives are so far designed to halt Russian advances out of the Kherson bridgehead then to directly retake the city, at least in the short short term. Particularly interesting is increased Ukrainian counter-attacks and shelling at Vysokopillia at the far northern end of the Russian line west of the Dnieper. That town was reinforced as a Russian supply base, but the Ukrainians have pushed the lines back to the town itself. If the Ukrainians can recapture the town, the Russians may have no choice but to abandon the entire salient west of the Dnieper, apart maybe from Kherson itself.

In the Donbas, Russia seems to have secured the villages of Yarova and Dibrova near Lyman. Ukrainian forces now seem to be withdrawing from the north banks of the Siverskyi Donets in favour of contesting those crossing points discussed previously. It looks like Ukraine might be sacrificing Sievierodonetsk in favour of contesting the immediately neighbouring city of Lysychansk. The Russians will have to take the city over the river, since it looks like the Popsana offensive to the south has run out of steam, unless they can reinforce. Recent reports are that Ukrainian reinforcements headed into Donbas might be mustering around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk to make a huge fight for those cities. 

 

[Kalbear]

Now this is some good tech support

 

 

[Maithanet]

Kyiv Independent Article on the artillery NATO is providing and how the artillery war is changing.  Back in February, Ukrainian artillery was very good and in decent (but obviously less than Russian) numbers.  However, as the war went on, supplies of Soviet caliber (152 mm) artillery shells have been gradually exhausted, even with assistance from former Soviet bloc countries.  The war changing to an artillery duel in April/May was a huge problem for Ukraine as shells dwindled, and the only possible solution was an influx in NATO artillery and NATO shells (155 mm).  Ukraine does not actually have any domestic production of artillery shells.  Thus, these NATO artillery pieces are needed not to supplement and enhance Ukrainian artillery, but to replace them entirely as they fall silent without additional ammo.  No wonder the Ukrainian requests for heavy artillery have been so desperate.

Other bits and pieces from Ukraine:

 - Reports of Russian losses of tanks and vehicles have actually dropped significantly in the past week.  Possible this is due to some change in tactics to hold them back and rely on artillery + infantry to take ground, or perhaps Russia is indeed running low on tanks suitable for offensive action or Ukraine is running out of anti-tank artillery rounds.  Possibly a combination of several.

 - Fighting continues in Sieverodonetsk.  There were reports that the UA was withdrawing from the city several days ago, but while withdrawals have occurred, counterattacks and stubborn defenses have as well.  This is the main effort at the moment from Russia, and all indications are that casualties are high on both sides. 

 

[Gorn]

Reports from Severodonetsk state that Ukrainians are counter-attacking in the city, and that the retreat was a trap designed to lure Russian infantry into the city. Zelensky said that "there are some good news from Severodonetsk, but it is too early to talk about them".

Personally, I'm sceptical whether it was planned, or if it was an actual retreat followed by a quick regrouping and taking tactical advantage of an unexpected opportunity. In any case, there are definite tactical advantages to "hugging" the enemy who has a superior artillery advantage, as seen in the Bosnian war previously. The enemy can't hit your soldiers with artillery (or TOS-1As, like in Lyman) if they are right across the street from the enemy's soldiers.

[Werthead]

Just now, Gorn said:

Reports from Severodonetsk state that Ukrainians are counter-attacking in the city, and that the retreat was a trap designed to lure Russian infantry into the city. Zelensky said that "there are some good news from Severodonetsk, but it is too early to talk about them".

Personally, I'm sceptical whether it was planned, or if it was an actual retreat followed by a quick regrouping and taking tactical advantage of an unexpected opportunity. In any case, there are definite tactical advantages to "hugging" the enemy who has a superior artillery advantage, as seen in the Bosnian war previously. The enemy can't hit your soldiers with artillery (or TOS-1As, like in Lyman) if they are right across the street from the enemy's soldiers.

Well, they can ("I'm so evil I even kill my own men! For no reason!"), but it's not a great idea for morale or preserving your troops' numbers for future offensive operations.

[Gorn]

I'm surprised that Ukrainians didn't already utilize the "hugging" tactic in Mariupol before. During the Bosnian War, most of the battle lines within Sarajevo and Mostar where different sides of the same street, with 20-30m distance between the two sides. There were literally daily shouting conversations between the soldiers on different sides. There were even a couple of buildings where different parts of the same building were held by different armies, with one or two walls separating them.

If the enemy retreats to give their artillery space to work, you advance to keep "hugging" them, while capturing new ground.

Maintaining a fixed line of defense against an enemy armed with thermobaric weapons, like Russia does, simply doesn't work. Walls and bunkers offer no protection against that.

[Werthead]

8 minutes ago, Gorn said:

I'm surprised that Ukrainians didn't already utilize the "hugging" tactic in Mariupol before. During the Bosnian War, most of the battle lines within Sarajevo and Mostar where different sides of the same street, with 20-30m distance between the two sides. There were literally daily shouting conversations between the soldiers on different sides. There were even a couple of buildings where different parts of the same building were held by different armies, with one or two walls separating them.

If the enemy retreats to give their artillery space to work, you advance to keep "hugging" them, while capturing new ground.

Maintaining a fixed line of defense against an enemy armed with thermobaric weapons, like Russia does, simply doesn't work. Walls and bunkers offer no protection against that.

They did, up to a point. There's videos of Russian forces retreating and being chased by Ukrainian tanks and IFVs (including IFVs with heavy armour-penetrating rounds taking out Russian tanks) to try to achieve that result. In Mariupol they did have the advantage with the deep shelters below the steelworks which were impossible to reach with standard artillery.

It's also worth noting the Russians did this in Stalingrad to great success, again with soldiers yelling insults at one another between neighbouring rooms in the same building.

Artillery hugging breaks down a bit when the artillery is quite accurate. The Russian stuff isn't super-accurate (like the GPS-guided stuff the Ukrainians have received from other countries) but it's much more accurate than WWII or Bosnian War equipment. Though stories of Russians being bombed by their own sides suggest that's still a problem. Also, the Luhansk and Donestk troops being sent forwards, apparently because they are more expendable than the Russians (which those troops are getting more and more angry about).

One Ukrainian sniper was saying that in the last few weeks the Russian tactics had changed to "artillery for every single threat." He'd started the war in secure positions taking several shots before having to relocate before enemy mortars or troops found him. In the last few weeks in Donbas he'd have to pick an exit route carefully and then run like hell after every single shot, since within 5-10 minutes the area would be zeroed by artillery.

[Toth]

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Thus, these NATO artillery pieces are needed not to supplement and enhance Ukrainian artillery, but to replace them entirely as they fall silent without additional ammo.  No wonder the Ukrainian requests for heavy artillery have been so desperate.

This is... extremely troublesome, given how few pieces we are actually supplying them with...

... and makes me wonder, once again from the German perspective... in WW2 it was possible for Germany to produce 152 mm shells to feed captured Soviet artillery pieces, so... why is it so difficult for the West to switch a couple of factories to that caliber and supply them to Ukraine instead of raiding old soviet stocks?

I know it would mean building different machines, but again, it was possible in WW2 and the Nazis didn't have the advantage of setting this up while at peace.

[Werthead]

9 minutes ago, Toth said:

This is... extremely troublesome, given how few pieces we are actually supplying them with...

... and makes me wonder, once again from the German perspective... in WW2 it was possible for Germany to produce 152 mm shells to feed captured Soviet artillery pieces, so... why is it so difficult for the West to switch a couple of factories to that caliber and supply them to Ukraine instead of raiding old soviet stocks?

I know it would mean building different machines, but again, it was possible in WW2 and the Nazis didn't have the advantage of setting this up while at peace.

I assume it is possible (especially with being able to 3D print moulds and parts and so on) and someone somewhere is probably doing it, but it's taking time.

Something this conflict is highlighting to everyone, including Russia, is that our industries and economics are really not good at switching gears rapidly to accommodate unforeseen events, and our modern high-tech warfare weapons are getting chewed up and spat out by an intense, relatively long-running conflict.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

They did, up to a point. There's videos of Russian forces retreating and being chased by Ukrainian tanks and IFVs (including IFVs with heavy armour-penetrating rounds taking out Russian tanks) to try to achieve that result. In Mariupol they did have the advantage with the deep shelters below the steelworks which were impossible to reach with standard artillery.

It's also worth noting the Russians did this in Stalingrad to great success, again with soldiers yelling insults at one another between neighbouring rooms in the same building.

Artillery hugging breaks down a bit when the artillery is quite accurate. The Russian stuff isn't super-accurate (like the GPS-guided stuff the Ukrainians have received from other countries) but it's much more accurate than WWII or Bosnian War equipment. Though stories of Russians being bombed by their own sides suggest that's still a problem. Also, the Luhansk and Donestk troops being sent forwards, apparently because they are more expendable than the Russians (which those troops are getting more and more angry about).

One Ukrainian sniper was saying that in the last few weeks the Russian tactics had changed to "artillery for every single threat." He'd started the war in secure positions taking several shots before having to relocate before enemy mortars or troops found him. In the last few weeks in Donbas he'd have to pick an exit route carefully and then run like hell after every single shot, since within 5-10 minutes the area would be zeroed by artillery.

Your reports have been amazing.

Don’t tell me anything confidential, but subject to that, how do you get your information?

[Werthead]

3 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Your reports have been amazing.

Don’t tell me anything confidential, but subject to that, how do you get your information?

Usually having 10 Twitter account and news tabs open from sources that have proven reliable. It is tough because there's some very pro-one side or the other sources out there which try to confuse the issue.

[Toth]

5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I assume it is possible (especially with being able to 3D print moulds and parts and so on) and someone somewhere is probably doing it, but it's taking time.

I dug a bit deeper into this: It took the Nazis 20 months to set a 152 mm factory in occupied Poland up, while being cut off from global supply chains and in the middle of having their war blow up in their face. That amount of time is obviously not feasible, but the question really is how much we can push down this time with modern manufacturing processes and the know-how of simply having to copy the machines in that one Czech factory that is currently supplying Ukraine, so we can scrap the reverse-engineering process.

[Zorral]

14 hours ago, KalVsWade said:

Now this is some good tech support

Woo -- war seems to be different now from the days of the Light Brigade . . . .

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

This is interesting:

 

[Werthead]

Excellent stuff here on the problems in Russia's force design and how there seems to have been a major shift in their recruitment policies around 2019 which led to a rapidly diminishing professional manpower pool in the subsequent two years, leaving Russia with significantly fewer troops than they had on paper, and that the political leadership may not have been aware of this.

A few weaknesses though, by mentioning the LPR/DPR troops but not going further into their role as cannon fodder in the conflict.

[Maithanet]

Overall Commander in Ukraine Dvornikov appears to be out.  He was appointed in early April to oversee the Donbas offensive.  Somewhat surprising since in many ways the war effort went much better for Russia in May than it did previously.  Apparently Putin was expecting a bit more?