#16 Ukraine the brave, the whole World is watching!

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

 

Overall Commander in Ukraine Dvornikov appears to be out.  He was appointed in early April to oversee the Donbas offensive.  Somewhat surprising since in many ways the war effort went much better for Russia in May than it did previously.  Apparently Putin was expecting a bit more? 

I suspect the near loss of the Kharkiv front, the stalling of the Popsana front, the unexpected counter-attacks at Izium and Kherson and the very slow rate of progress in Donbas all contributed to the move.

It's also possible that he has been holding out for just focusing on Donbas and not try to expand the objectives and objected to these rumoured new plans to put Kyiv and Kharkiv back on the table. If so, maybe the new guy is going to try to fight across a much broader front, but without reinforcements that will just overstretch Russia again.

[Maithanet]

18 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I suspect the near loss of the Kharkiv front, the stalling of the Popsana front, the unexpected counter-attacks at Izium and Kherson and the very slow rate of progress in Donbas all contributed to the move.

It's also possible that he has been holding out for just focusing on Donbas and not try to expand the objectives and objected or fired to these rumoured new plans to put Kyiv and Kharkiv back on the table. If so, maybe the new guy is going to try to fight across a much broader front, but without reinforcements that will just overstretch Russia again.

There are plenty of plausible reasons, we really can only speculate.  But it does clash with the much more triumphal tone of Russian propaganda the past few weeks that the Donbas offensive demonstrates that Russia is winning the war and is destined to destroy Ukraine regardless of Western help.

[DireWolfSpirit]

On the Commander being ousted-

I'll take it as a measure of hope that things are going as poorly for the Russians as we all hope and that Putin has been made aware of even more problems.

[Fragile Bird]

Hey, you forgot to label this #16! You’ll lose count!

[Loge]

12 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Overall Commander in Ukraine Dvornikov appears to be out.  He was appointed in early April to oversee the Donbas offensive.  Somewhat surprising since in many ways the war effort went much better for Russia in May than it did previously.  Apparently Putin was expecting a bit more? 

Which reminds me: Has anything been heard about Gerasimov since his visit on the front line in Donbas? He was notably missing at the 9th May parade.

[SeanF]

16 hours ago, Werthead said:

Usually having 10 Twitter account and news tabs open from sources that have proven reliable. It is tough because there's some very pro-one side or the other sources out there which try to confuse the issue.

Thanks.  It seems as if Sverodonetsk is turning into another grinding battle of attrition, which can’t be good news for Russia.

[Werthead]

Ukrainians claiming to have recaptured "significant" parts of Severodonetsk this morning and halted the Russian advance in others. Interesting to see how true that is and if this is a temporary success for Ukraine or a much more important success.

However, apparently Russia bombarded Mykolaiv overnight, sparking fears of a renewed offensive there. Given reports of Ukrainian successes in the region earlier this week, it's hard to tell what's happening there.

[broken one]

7 hours ago, Werthead said:

Ukrainians claiming to have recaptured "significant" parts of Severodonetsk this morning and halted the Russian advance in others. Interesting to see how true that is and if this is a temporary success for Ukraine or a much more important success.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1533086406976884736

 

[Toth]

27 minutes ago, broken one said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1533086406976884736

 

And to add to that:

If this turns out to be anywhere near true, the Russians have seriously fucked up even with their "let's focus all of our remaining forces in a 40 km wide push" Plan D strategy. Or are we already at Plan F?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, Toth said:

And to add to that:

If this turns out to be anywhere near true, the Russians have seriously fucked up even with their "let's focus all of our remaining forces in a 40 km wide push" Plan D strategy. Or are we already at Plan F?

If the Russian concentration of force has allowed a serious pounding of that remaining force… that would be wonderful.  

[Wilbur]

8 hours ago, Werthead said:

...However, apparently Russia bombarded Mykolaiv overnight, sparking fears of a renewed offensive there. Given reports of Ukrainian successes in the region earlier this week, it's hard to tell what's happening there.

To me, it seems like the pattern established over the past three months is:

• Ukrainian diplomatic success or;
• Ukrainian military success leads to;
• Indiscriminate Russian bombing or rocket attacks against civilian population centers.

[broken one]

Cannot find it right now, but I encountered claims about foreigners (Georgians and Westerners) taking part in the "hugging" in Sevierodonetsk. I was thinking how hard testicles it takes to put oneself volunteering head into lions mouth, attacking in some desperate spurt, inside the cauldron. Suicide in fact. But if the info about Russian losses is true, this would mean it was well prepared and toughtful operation. 

[Werthead]

10 minutes ago, broken one said:

Cannot find it right now, but I encountered claims about foreigners (Georgians and Westerners) taking part in the "hugging" in Sevierodonetsk. I was thinking how hard testicles it takes to put oneself volunteering head into lions mouth, attacking in some desperate spurt, inside the cauldron. Suicide in fact. But if the info about Russian losses is true, this would mean it was well prepared and toughtful operation. 

Apparently there are a lot of Chechens fighting on the Ukrainian side (something that is forgotten in all the fuss over the Chechens fighting alongside Russia) and they adopted some of these tactics during their wars as well, and have been passing on their tactical know-how.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Regards the one day 1100+ Russian losses-

Perhaps the Ukrainians are the Lions mouth and it is the "hugging" Russians who are experiencing the jaws of death.

[Wilbur]

2 hours ago, broken one said:

Cannot find it right now, but I encountered claims about foreigners (Georgians and Westerners) taking part in the "hugging" in Sevierodonetsk. I was thinking how hard testicles it takes to put oneself volunteering head into lions mouth, attacking in some desperate spurt, inside the cauldron. Suicide in fact. But if the info about Russian losses is true, this would mean it was well prepared and toughtful operation. 

I am seeing information from Trent Telenko, The Dead District, etc. that indicates that Georgian, Chechnyan, and Foreign Legion fighters joined the Ukrainian efforts in the counterattack.  Some reports are that they even fell back, then used Soviet-era tunnels to return inside the Russian lines and pop up behind/beside.  Several other sources indicate that the Ukrainians had prepared kill zones and zeroed artillery onto specific routes to and within Severodonetsk that the Russian forces would likely use.

Recently twitted

Speak the Truth has been saying for weeks that the Lysychansk region is high ground from which the Ukrainians can overwatch the Russians.  Reports say that the Ukrainians not only hugged the Russian forces inside Severodonetsk, but at the same time actively and accurately shelled their reserves from the Lysychansk overwatch as they were ordered into the fight.  So this is good news if you like the thought that the Ukrainian forces have had a plan AND executed it with high levels of success.

And things are looking lousy for the Russians in the Izium area as well, if this recent intercept translated by Dmitri is any indication.

35th Army Rewards

[Werthead]

Different reports on the Severodonetsk counter-attack. Some saying it is significant, some Ukrainians playing it down and saying it is a counter-attack designed to take advantage of localised tactical weaknesses. Russia has reserves in the area it can bring in and Ukraine may have to retreat south of the river again.

However, it's worth noting that Ukraine has been conducting an aggressive disinformation campaign during the conflict, much more in Russian language channels, often highlighting arguments between Ukraine and its western allies or divisions between Ukrainian military forces and the government. The purpose is to make the Russians think things are worse than they really are in an attempt to pull them forwards and over-commit. The Ukrainian disinformation war seems to be far more capable and impressive than the Russian one.

Quote

And things are looking lousy for the Russians in the Izium area as well, if this recent intercept translated by Dmitri is any indication.

Denying an army its toilet paper is disastrous for morale.

[Wilbur]

6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Denying an army its toilet paper is disastrous for morale...

And for damn sure the next most important item to the boys on the front line is...shoe polish.

[Derfel Cadarn]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Different reports on the Severodonetsk counter-attack. Some saying it is significant, some Ukrainians playing it down and saying it is a counter-attack designed to take advantage of localised tactical weaknesses. Russia has reserves in the area it can bring in and Ukraine may have to retreat south of the river again.

However, it's worth noting that Ukraine has been conducting an aggressive disinformation campaign during the conflict, much more in Russian language channels, often highlighting arguments between Ukraine and its western allies or divisions between Ukrainian military forces and the government. The purpose is to make the Russians think things are worse than they really are in an attempt to pull them forwards and over-commit. The Ukrainian disinformation war seems to be far more capable and impressive than the Russian one.

Denying an army its toilet paper is disastrous for morale.

An advantage for Ukraine to hit the doom alarm is that the west will gove better weapons, and quicker. 

[broken one]

Seems the 1 100 turned out to be 100.

[Werthead]

42 minutes ago, broken one said:

Seems the 1 100 turned out to be 100.

I think we won't know for some considerable time the true scale of casualties for the war as a whole, let alone individual battles. We've see Ukraine claim casualties that are 10 times higher than what the Russians admit to in a single battle, and then weeks later we hear leaked Russian casualty reports that are much closer to the Ukrainian figure (and then it turns out the Ukrainians got the figures from the Russians transmitting their casualty estimates in the clear).

Still, I can imagine 100 killed and 900+ wounded or taken prisoner. There's plenty of footage of DNR/LNR and some Russian POWs reportedly fresh off the battlefield. My Ukrainian contact has said that he thinks the scale of the Ukrainian counter-attack might have been exaggerated for morale-boosting purposes, but just halting a main Russian assault for a day or two on that scale is a major achievement, even if they do have to give ground again and retreat across the river. Attacking across the river into Lysychansk is still going to present the Russians with big problems even if they do fully take Severodonetsk.

Apparently some of the heaviest action was in the vicinity of the "Jazz Mall," which I hope becomes the official name of a battle (the Battle of Jazz Mall, the successor to the Battle of Techno House which was a key engagement earlier in the conflict).

One new piece of information is that Metolkine was retaken, which is a small town SE of Severodonetsk. That suggests the Ukrainians were able to advance from the NW of the city to the SE, along the entire front. It's unclear if Metolkine remains in Ukrainian hands right now.

Other reports suggest that the Ukrainians have crossed the Ingulets - the new front river in Kherson Oblast - in three places and adopted defensive positions. They then neutralised a Russian Battalion Tactical Group sent to engage them, apparently rendering it non-combat-capable (i.e. destroy enough of its troops and vehicles so it was no longer able to fight, probably not killed to the last man). And it does appear that the Russian 35th Army near Izium has indeed suffered catastrophic losses as per the Russian leak yesterday and is being hastily reinforced.

There's also unverified footage of two Ukrainian S-300 AA missile launchers at work in Donbas, which is a huge surprise. Russia claimed to have destroyed all of Ukraine's S-300s plus a replacement sent by Slovakia weeks ago. Either the footage is from a long time ago or Russia has once again exaggerated its successes.