#16 Ukraine the brave, the whole World is watching!

[Werthead]

Indications that the Russians have also withdrawn from Voronove to the south of Metolkine, which extends the arc of the front even further.

Frustratingly, a lot of this news is 12 or more hours old, 24 in some cases. Dynamics of the battle today much harder to work out.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

28 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Indications that the Russians have also withdrawn from Voronove to the south of Metolkine, which extends the arc of the front even further.

Frustratingly, a lot of this news is 12 or more hours old, 24 in some cases. Dynamics of the battle today much harder to work out.

That’s well to the Southeast of Sieverodonetsk.  Are the Russians trying to get the Ukrainians to over extend?  Create a salient they can envelope?

[Werthead]

8 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That’s well to the Southeast of Sieverodonetsk.  Are the Russians trying to get the Ukrainians to over extend?  Create a salient they can envelope?

Not that I can see. The Russians have prosecuted the entire Donbas offensive with a relatively small number of troops, just backed up by a lot of artillery. That was fine when they were advancing across open countryside and could flatten everything ahead of them but when they got into attritional warfare in close-quarters urban fighting, their lack of manpower superiority started causing them trouble, and why they've most been using Luhansk troops who are increasingly pissed off at being sent in as cannon fodder.

It looks like the biggest problem was that they were going for a three-pronged assault with troops pouring in from the north at Izium, south at Popsana and north-east through the mass of the Donbas and through Severodonetsk, but the Ukrainians pinned the Russians down at Izium during the Kharkiv counter-offensive and the Russian advance out of Popsana, which seemed a done deal at one point, seemed to completely stall out. So the Russians mounted just one prong of their three-pronged offensive, which is weird. It also looks like the Donetsk Republic troops Russia wanted to employ on the southern front of the salient have refused to fight after their heavy losses in Mariupol and their embracing of legal arguments (Donetsk law does not allow them to fight on the soil of Luhansk, which is a different political entity).

The big question everyone is asking is if Russia has any reserves to commit to Severodonetsk that could win the battle. If not, if there's nothing really behind them and the Ukrainians have committed (at least) three full brigades to the counter-attack (which are twice the size of a Russian Battalion Tactical Group or more), then there could be a significant reverse. Having tons of artillery is useless if you haven't got lots of troops in front of it to protect it.

If Russia does have large reserves as yet uncommitted, we could see a swing back in Russia's favour, but they'll now need to regain the ground they've spent the last week or so grinding out through street fighting again.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

10 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Not that I can see. The Russians have prosecuted the entire Donbas offensive with a relatively small number of troops, just backed up by a lot of artillery. That was fine when they were advancing across open countryside and could flatten everything ahead of them but when they got into attritional warfare in close-quarters urban fighting, their lack of manpower superiority started causing them trouble, and why they've most been using Luhansk troops who are increasingly pissed off at being sent in as cannon fodder.

It looks like the biggest problem was that they were going for a three-pronged assault with troops pouring in from the north at Izium, south at Popsana and north-east through the mass of the Donbas and through Severodonetsk, but the Ukrainians pinned the Russians down at Izium during the Kharkiv counter-offensive and the Russian advance out of Popsana, which seemed a done deal at one point, seemed to completely stall out. So the Russians mounted just one prong of their three-pronged offensive, which is weird. It also looks like the Donetsk Republic troops Russia wanted to employ on the southern front of the salient have refused to fight after their heavy losses in Mariupol and their embracing of legal arguments (Donetsk law does not allow them to fight on the soil of Luhansk, which is a different political entity).

The big question everyone is asking is if Russia has any reserves to commit to Severodonetsk that could win the battle. If not, if there's nothing really behind them and the Ukrainians have committed (at least) three full brigades to the counter-attack (which are twice the size of a Russian Battalion Tactical Group or more), then there could be a significant reverse. Having tons of artillery is useless if you haven't got lots of troops in front of it to protect it.

If Russia does have large reserves as yet uncommitted, we could see a swing back in Russia's favour, but they'll now need to regain the ground they've spent the last week or so grinding out through street fighting again.

Well then here’s hoping the Russians are at the bottom of the barrel.

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Frustratingly, a lot of this news is 12 or more hours old, 24 in some cases. Dynamics of the battle today much harder to work out.

I noticed that too.  There was lots of news yesterday, but virtuality nothing today.  A little odd.

[Werthead]

A late-breaking report with fairly high confidence that the Ukrainians have captured Sukhyi Stavok Lozove on the south bank of the Ingulets and widened their salient across the river from Andriivka in the south-west to Davydid Brid in the north-east. They have reportedly repulsed a heavy Russian counterattack and are attacking Davydiv Brid from two directions. Sukhi Stavok is ~40 miles NE of Kherson. This front is apparently becoming more a source of alarm on Russian social media channels, although not as much as Severodonetsk.

Ukraine has withdrawn from positions north of the Donets away from Severodonetsk and Russia has regained the village of Komyshuvakha, which Ukraine had recently seized as part of their pushback around Popasna. It looks like the Popasna counter-offensive isn't a serious Ukrainian effort but a series of light counter-attacks designed to keep the Russians off-balance and prevent them from advancing further. Similar strategy to what they did at Izium.

Unconfirmed report that Ukrainian forces pinning Russians outside Izium have slipped through their lines and are attacking Russian positions in the SW of Izium itself. Looks like it might be a raid rather than a major effort.

What appears to be confirmed is that Russian Major General Kutuzov have been killed in an artillery strike. He was commanding units of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People's Republic in Donetsk. Apparently he'd been ordering officers to take personal command of units in storming Ukrainian positions and they'd started refusing, so he decided to lead by example.

A very enthusiastic Canadian volunteer fighting for Ukraine is claiming 90% of Severodonetsk is under Ukrainian control and the forces that outflanked Russian positions to the NW of the city are already positioning to attack Rubizhne (which is almost immediately adjacent to Severodonetsk to the NW). This guy has gotten some stick in the past for over-enthusiasm in his reporting, so take that with a pinch of salt for now.

[Wilbur]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

...Having tons of artillery is useless if you haven't got lots of troops in front of it to protect it...

To that point, Trent Telenko is suggesting that the Russians may be reaching the culminating point, where they have run out of trained, dismounted infantry.

The Russians, having decided to use the Tactical Book of World War II, are experiencing the textbook casualties of a WW2 conflict.  Or possibly slightly more, given the problem of corruption resulting in the symptoms of ghost troops.

It looks like the Ukrainian military leadership has realized that they could further reduce the trained Russian dismounted infantry by another Mariupol-style urban conflict, and so they drew the Russians straight into Severodonestk.

And thus, into the Culminating Point.

I have seen reports that the Ukrainian counter-attack resulted in actual combat for the Tik-Tok Troopers from Chechnya, but I haven't seen any actual video.  Strange, that.

 

[Maithanet]

Zelensky has been visiting the front, and today he went into the Severodonetsk salient to visit Lysychask.  The man has courage.

[Werthead]

11 hours ago, Wilbur said:

To that point, Trent Telenko is suggesting that the Russians may be reaching the culminating point, where they have run out of trained, dismounted infantry.

The Russians, having decided to use the Tactical Book of World War II, are experiencing the textbook casualties of a WW2 conflict.  Or possibly slightly more, given the problem of corruption resulting in the symptoms of ghost troops.

It looks like the Ukrainian military leadership has realized that they could further reduce the trained Russian dismounted infantry by another Mariupol-style urban conflict, and so they drew the Russians straight into Severodonestk.

And thus, into the Culminating Point.

I think Telenko's casualty estimates are way over the line. I suspect the figures we've heard recently (over 30,000) might be for total casualties, not just KIA. However even casualties running at that level is disastrous for Russia, since it leaves front-facing Russian units at under 50% strength and much more likely to be forced into retreat.

Left unspoken in this is the status of Ukraine's military. Its heavy casualty rate it has sustained for the past 2-3 weeks does seem to have eased in the last few days and the arrival of substantial reinforcing numbers suggests their mobilisation is starting to take effect, but there could still be a gap between their losses and recruits becoming available that could be quite dangerous if Russia is able to resume the offensive. The disposition of Ukrainian forces versus Russian reinforcements is also an open question in many areas (particularly around Kherson, and where Russian forces could enter Ukraine across the border from north of Kharkiv). 

Quote

 

I have seen reports that the Ukrainian counter-attack resulted in actual combat for the Tik-Tok Troopers from Chechnya, but I haven't seen any actual video.  Strange, that.

 

There have also been some Kremlin insider reports/rumours that actual Chechen casualties have been mounting and Kadyrov has been displeased, apparently reminding the Kremlin that he is "Putin's infantryman," not "Russia's infantryman," and if Putin leaves office for whatever reason, they should not assume his immediate support, especially if they lead Chechen forces to disaster. There's also some rumours that the pro-Ukrainian Chechen troops are answering to political leaders at home who are in communication with Kadyrov, who has ambitions beyond just being a leader of a small bit of Russia (so he is, to some extent, playing both ends against the middle). He has argued for, and gotten, a special status for Chechnya which he can foresee developing into full independence in the future with him as its king. One of the reasons Putin has massaged Kadyrov so much over the years is because he knows how damaging a third war in Chechnya would be, even if Russia could win it. Obviously a conflict in/with Chechnya simultaneously with the Ukraine operation would be catastrophic (and in that instance, Galeev's long-foreseen Russian collapse could start happening, with Tatarstan and Dagestan likely to make similar plays).

[broken one]

Erdogan allegedly decided to send his warships to escort grain transports from Odessa.

[Werthead]

Just now, broken one said:

Erdogan allegedly decided to send his warships to escort grain transports from Odessa.

Interestingly, apparently this is on the table in a meeting with Lavrov, and after the President of the African Union angrily remonstrated with Putin over the situation. So Russia is much less likely to attack Turkish ships having agreed to the move after consulting with their own African partners.

The next issue is finding an acceptable way to allow ships into Odesa harbour that doesn't expose the city to an amphibious assault.

[broken one]

Quote

According to Izvestia, the Russian side allowed Turkey to carry out demining in the territorial waters of Ukraine. In addition, the Turkish navy will escort Ukrainian dry cargo ships with grain to neutral waters. Further, dry cargo ships, already under the control of the Russian military, will proceed to the Bosphorus Strait in order to prevent provocations.

Do I get it right - outside territorial waters of Ukraine the vessels would be escorted by Russians?

[Werthead]

15 minutes ago, broken one said:

Do I get it right - outside territorial waters of Ukraine the vessels would be escorted by Russians?

Yeah, that sounds like it will not fly.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

@Werthead

Please tell me this is Russian propaganda or a Russian apologist:

 

[Werthead]

5 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Werthead

Please tell me this is Russian propaganda or a Russian apologist:

The situation is unclear. Some sources, including Russian ones, are saying there has been heavy fighting in the city, the Ukrainians have broken through and pushing Russian forces back strongly. Others disagree.

What is interesting is that the satellites that can pick up fire damage in a city, which have been very useful in determining areas of heavy fighting, are showing fighting continuing to rage through the city centre. So it looks like the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back from controlling 80% of the city to maybe around 40%. The reports yesterday of the Ukrainians retaking the whole city and preparing advances beyond the city were always very optimistic and now seem to be very overstated in the face of Russian artillery and airpower superiority, but other reports that the Russians have not suffered many losses and are about to overrun the Ukrainian line also seems overstated.

That Twitter account is making a common mistake of taking things happening elsewhere on the lines, where the Ukrainians are indeed stiffly outnumbered in men and artillery, and applying it to the whole line, which is not the case. The Russins simply don't have 7x the numbers along the whole front.

[broken one]

This morning Serhij Hajdaj (head of the Luhansk Oblast administration) claimed that situation in the city changed and became "a bit more difficult" for defenders. Petro Kuzyk, captain of National Guard of Ukraine said the combat is really terrible and it all looks like Counter Strike. Russians have more tanks and artillery, probably more men too and they use the advantages. In some places Ukrainians are being pushed back, in other manage to keep positions. Sometimes they try to counter attack, but with various results.

[Maithanet]

Severodonetsk is a meat grinder, and the Ukrainians konw it.  I think in some ways that's why the counterattack there was so surprising.  If the Ukrainians wanted to make a defensible line that the Russians would struggle with, then retreating back to Lysychansk and making Russia attempt another river crossing (or just force their way down from Izyum) would make sense.  But the Ukrainians felt that the opportunity was there and they deployed a lot of troops right where the Russians appeared strongest.  It's an unusual military choice, and definitely shows confidence.

Will it pay off?  I hope so.  If the Russian offensive can be broken at Severodonetsk, then the offensive is basically over.  But winning an urban battle where Russia has all its artillery deployed is incredibly challenging and costly.  I hope the Ukrainians have not made a misstep. 

[Werthead]

Yup, the situation seems volatile and confused. One possibility is that Ukrainian intelligence may have received word that the Russians were thinking of calling for ceasefire talks after taking Severodonetsk (real or feigned whilst they resupplied for future advances), which would make their situation very difficult and it less likely that Ukraine be able to retake territory in the future. That might be also why they are advancing in the Kherson region. Russia will try to use "facts on the ground" to get the most favourable outcome in negotiations and Ukraine needs to do the same. Clearing Severodonetsk and retaking Kherson would leave Russia with almost no major urban areas taken as a result of the invasion, only smouldering ruins.

The other possibility is that Ukraine had sufficient manpower in the region to counter-attack and decided to go for it. The problem remains that they are outnumbered in artillery and airpower, although reportedly some of their more advanced artillery is now in the region and is proving lethal in its accuracy, even if they can't compare with the Russian numbers of artillery pieces.

[broken one]

12 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Severodonetsk is a meat grinder, and the Ukrainians konw it.  I think in some ways that's why the counterattack there was so surprising.  If the Ukrainians wanted to make a defensible line that the Russians would struggle with, then retreating back to Lysychansk and making Russia attempt another river crossing (or just force their way down from Izyum) would make sense.  But the Ukrainians felt that the opportunity was there and they deployed a lot of troops right where the Russians appeared strongest.  It's an unusual military choice, and definitely shows confidence.

Will it pay off?  I hope so.  If the Russian offensive can be broken at Severodonetsk, then the offensive is basically over.  But winning an urban battle where Russia has all its artillery deployed is incredibly challenging and costly.  I hope the Ukrainians have not made a misstep. 

According to what a Polish expert said - maybe it was not planned, not an ambush as Ukrainians try to present it now.

In the eastern part of Severodonetsk two Ukrainian units - Territorial Defence and National Guard, had well prepared, firm defensive positions. The hypothesis is that, for some unknown reason (morale crisis maybe - the defenders have been sitting there for 9 months already, 6 months of ATO and 3 of war), they have left the positions and retreated to the western side of the town. Russians  took the chance and moved after them, taking the fine positions without fight and following Ukrainians to the western parts.

By chance the cavalary (Ukrainian 4th armoured brigade) was not far, entered the city and Russians moved back to the eastern side fast, taking heavy losses.  

[Werthead]

Still confused reports in Severodonetsk, but interestingly there are signs that the Ukrainians have been rotating out the units that have been there for nine months and are bringing in fresh troops to replace them, and maybe the problems with the Ukrainians falling back were related to that. Apparently one soldier said they had held and killed a huge number of attacking Russians and were now retaking territory but "lots" of his comrades had been killed and more would die in retaking territory, but they were willing to pay the price.