#16 Ukraine the brave, the whole World is watching!

[Clueless Northman]

8 hours ago, Werthead said:

The Ukrainians are really not taking advantage of how overstretched the Russians are on other fronts, but whether that's through supply problems or lack of heavy equipment is unclear. Successes in Kharkiv and Kherson are continuing, but very slowly.

Maybe, both sides are overstretched? Not that Ukraine is overstretched in absolute situation, but rather chose not  tosend all the reserves to Severodonetsk due to risk of collapse or cauldron, and tried to take advantage of Russia's situation to push in Kherson area.

[Werthead]

9 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Maybe, both sides are overstretched? Not that Ukraine is overstretched in absolute situation, but rather chose not  tosend all the reserves to Severodonetsk due to risk of collapse or cauldron, and tried to take advantage of Russia's situation to push in Kherson area.

Yup. Ukraine has actually done a very good job of holding back forces and equipment rather than throwing everything into the blender to be destroyed. However, there is always the question about when this is a good idea and when that conservatism starts to hurt them.

[Maithanet]

23 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The situation around Seiverodonetsk is indeed deteriorating.  Ukraine is still holding Lysychansk, and a small portion of Seiverodonetsk, but to pocket is getting narrower.  To the south of those two is Zolote, and that is now nearly surrounded.  If the Ukrainians have to abandon Zolote, then the pocket gets much tighter and resupply that much more difficult.  At some point you have to think that the Ukrainians will bring their troops out rather than risk getting completely cut off.  They've held strong thus far, but it feels like only a matter of time. 

Update:  Zolote has fallen.  Ukraine pulled most of it's troops out yesterday.  There's question about whether the rearguard troops made it out or not.  Hopefully they did.  This is a definite loss for Ukraine, it makes the Lysychansk pocket that much tighter.  But it doesn't dramatically change the situation, as Ukraine is still hoping to use Lysychansk and Seiverodonetsk to delay and bleed the Russian army.  It does make Russian and Ukrainian lines a great deal shorter though. 

[Maithanet]

In better news

He didn't specify the number, but it is probably 4 as was announced earlier.  If they have a strong established supply train of missiles in place, then even just 4 HIMARs could make some difference (along with other heavy arty the Ukrainians received).  But if that supply train isn't in place, then these units are going to be mostly sitting around as juicy targets for the Russians.

[Zorral]

The sheer horror of those staying, trapped and fighting in Ukraine --

[broken one]

On 6/22/2022 at 2:38 PM, Gorn said:

Bayraktars are too expensive to be used as kamikaze. Instead, it seems to be a $8k commercial drone from Aliexpress:

Probably it was this one, Ukrainian reconnaissance drone, redone to carry a warhead:
https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/pd-1-unmanned-aerial-system/

 

[Maithanet]

Ukrainian forces retreated from Seiverodonetsk today.  There weren't too many troops left there anyway.  This marks 20 days since the big Ukrainian counteroffensive which temporarily seized much of the city.  That is a pretty big setback to the Russian timetable, but nonethless this is another loss for Ukraine.  The Ukrainians are now across the river in Lysychansk and hoping that they can continue to hold their supply routes from the grinding Russian offensive coming from the south. 

Fog of war remains strong at this point.  The Russians are slowly, slowly grinding forward.  They are taking losses to do so, although it is hard to know how severe those losses are anymore.  There were some indications that the Russians were in a manpower (particularly infantry) crisis since the early weeks of the war, but they are still finding the troops to advance somehow.  It's quite possible that this is the Russians final effort and they are one setback away from being forced on the defensive.  It's also possible that it is the Ukrainians who are being worn down and the Russians can continue this type of offensive for many months.  I hope not. 

Also the first video of US HIMARs being used in Ukraine came out this morning.  Hopefully they hit something worthwhile. 

[Werthead]

Owch.

Just to note it didn't completely 180 and destroy its own launcher, but not far off.

 

[Kalbear]

Man, morale's so bad for Russia even the missiles are turning against them

[DireWolfSpirit]

SHAME!

Lukashenko brings shame on Belarus as Ukraine is reporting Belarus has attacked them with an unprovoked, ferocious, artillery and rocket bombardment.

[Maithanet]

I don't see anything about Belarus joining the war, and I'm pretty sure that would be widely reported.  Russia is launching missiles from Belarus, which is new I guess, but seeing how Russian troops and planes and artillery launched an invasion from Belarusian bases back in February, it is hard to see this as a really big escalatory step 

[broken one]

4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

  Russia is launching missiles from Belarus, which is new I guess

No, they launched about 4 rockets from Belarusian territory on February 24.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, broken one said:

No, they launched about 4 rockets from Belarusian territory on February 24.

I'm not an expert, but my understanding was that it was still disputed whether rockets had been launched from Belarusian territory.  And to me personally, I don't particularly care whether Russian missiles were launched from Belarus or from Russian planes that took off from Belarus.  We know that Belarus is supporting Russia, it is very clear. 

Now if Belarus starts using it's own artillery to fire at Ukraine that would be different.  That is what direwolf was claiming, and I'm seeing no evidence of that.

[broken one]

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I'm not an expert, but my understanding was that it was still disputed whether rockets had been launched from Belarusian territory.  And to me personally, I don't particularly care whether Russian missiles were launched from Belarus or from Russian planes that took off from Belarus.  We know that Belarus is supporting Russia, it is very clear. 

Now if Belarus starts using it's own artillery to fire at Ukraine that would be different.  That is what direwolf was claiming, and I'm seeing no evidence of that.

Sure, anyway Lukaszenka himself admitted "2 or 3" missles were launched from Belarus.

 

[Corvinus85]

 

[Werthead]

21 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

 

Bit of a weird move. Russia has been launching missile strikes from Belarusian airspace since the start of the war, although I believe they hadn't done so for a few weeks.

What they might have been hoping for was for Ukraine to respond with attacks on Belarusian soil to give Belarus a reason to respond. But Ukraine hasn't been doing that when they had more cause earlier in the conflict.

Possibly a really desperate move to address Russian manpower issues. But Lukachenko knows that sending his army into Ukraine is probably even more dangerous than it would have been in February, with a very unhappy population and multiple generals who have apparently told him the army would rebel and his position would be in danger if that order was given.

Also a danger that if Belarus was to enter the war as a third country, other nations might feel considerably less constrained in joining the fight more directly themselves on Ukraine's side, or providing considerably greater support, and those nations would be considerably more capable than Belarus (still very unlikely, but the argument could be made).

[Kalbear]

Good thread on probable use of HIMARS to strike Russian command areas in places Ukraine had not been able to hit previously:

 

 

[Werthead]

9 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

Good thread on probable use of HIMARS to strike Russian command areas in places Ukraine had not been able to hit previously:

They were fighting on the streets of Izium a few weeks ago, so this isn't that far behind the lines, but I suspect this was to put the HIMARS launcher well within Ukraine's defenses (especially AA).

They really need to go after Russian artillery. Russian artillery was for weeks doing shoot and scoot but as Ukrainian counter-artillery was worn down and forced to retire (destroyed, damaged or out of ammo), they've apparently gotten a lot lazier and stayed in place longer, resulting in some losses to drones but also allowing them to concentrate stronger barrages of fire for longer.

[Gorn]

Putin promised to Lukashenko that Russia would "modernize" the Belarusian fleet of Su-25 CAS bombers. I have a funny feeling that not a single one of those planes will be returned to Belarus.

[Werthead]

UK intelligence is that Russia has started deploying the last wave of recruits from its "shadow mobilisation" plan, namely those over 40, some people dismissed from the military for various reasons and a relatively small number of volunteers they managed to recruit through a campaign. The fighting quality of this force is not expected to be significant.

The 40,000 Syrian and Arab fighters who were supposed to join the fight have also largely failed to materialise, with the total number of confirmed Syrian fighters in Ukraine believed to only be around 30. Syria's attempts to recruit on Russia's behalf have been desultory, with Syrian government officials even warning of a renewed push in the civil war if significant numbers of regime-loyal fighters were to go to Ukraine. Russia's other allies in the region are apparently hedging their bets and not offering support, certainly not material support (although Iran reportedly has sent of its older Russian equipment on a promise to have it replaced with modern equivalents at some future point, which would not be a cheque I'd accept).

ETA: That's 30 total, not 30,000.