#16 Ukraine the brave, the whole World is watching!

[Werthead]

Basically Russia's economy is in the shitter and going more in the shitter and Putin's speech was just suggesting some ways that will stop it going in the shitter but, effectively, will not. Some of the people in the audience are people who've spoken out against the war because of the impact it will have on Russia's economy and they did not look convinced in the slightest.

Also, and this is around the fourth time Russian officials have surprisingly said this, he's fine with Ukraine joining the EU but not NATO. I assume that's because he imagines annexing the Donbas and maybe the coast to Odesa and the rump, inland Ukraine left behind will be so poor it will be a drain on the rest of the EU. Of course, if the Russian-leaning Ukrainian leadership in 2013 had stood their ground on joining the EU but pledged not to join NATO, then absolutely none of Russia's concerns would have become a reality. It was Russia throwing a shitfit over Ukraine applying to join the EU that caused the entire cascade of events that has left Russia worse off politically, economically and militarily.

[Maithanet]

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Also, and this is around the fourth time Russian officials have surprisingly said this, he's fine with Ukraine joining the EU but not NATO. I assume that's because he imagines annexing the Donbas and maybe the coast to Odesa and the rump, inland Ukraine left behind will be so poor it will be a drain on the rest of the EU. Of course, if the Russian-leaning Ukrainian leadership in 2013 had stood their ground on joining the EU but pledged not to join NATO, then absolutely none of Russia's concerns would have become a reality. It was Russia throwing a shitfit over Ukraine applying to join the EU that caused the entire cascade of events that has left Russia worse off politically, economically and militarily.

Yes, or alternatively, if Ukraine had just treated the 2014 protests as business as usual, continued their relationship with Ukraine, then in all likelihood fairly soon the pendulum would have swung back to closer Russian ties anyway. 

It is odd that Putin's biggest foreign policy win (the successful invasion of Crimea) sowed the seeds for Putin's greatest blunder/failure. 

[Padraig]

8 hours ago, Gorn said:

I'd say that Albania and Montenegro are the next most likely countries to enter EU, although not very soon. Montenegro is being held back by a large pro-Russian minority of population, and Albania is unofficially held back by being a majority-Muslim country (despite being about as secular as say, Sweden).

Thanks.  Good point on Albania.  I had missed the obvious there.

[A True Kaniggit]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Yes, or alternatively, if Ukraine had just treated the 2014 protests as business as usual, continued their relationship with Ukraine, then in all likelihood fairly soon the pendulum would have swung back to closer Russian ties anyway. 

It is odd that Putin's biggest foreign policy win (the successful invasion of Crimea) sowed the seeds for Putin's greatest blunder/failure. 

Wait what?

[Maithanet]

53 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Wait what?

The first one should be Russia, not Ukraine.

[Kalbear]

30 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The first one should be Russia, not Ukraine.

ah so you admit that Russia and Ukraine are the same

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Spiegel on accelarated candidate status of Ukraine and the problems (Yes, English language)

[Werthead]

The DPR mayor of Donestk (the city) has said the Ukrainians have attacked the city in a drone strike. These seems some scepticism over that, given that it's in an odd part of the line for Ukraine to expending any effort Possibly some kind of false flag, which may backfire given nobody seems to care or pay attention to what's going on down there.

Ukraine is still requesting heavy artillery but apparently there's been a shift in focus this week and they are now asking for systems to help plug their AA network. Their AA network is still doing well and suspected low stocks of Russian PGMs is reducing the danger to western Ukraine, but Ukraine is keen to plug up the gaps.

[Ran]

29 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Spiegel on accelarated candidate status of Ukraine and the problems (Yes, English language)

An excellent article that gives the best, most-clear eyed view of the current situation. Foreign Policy had something in May that similarly laid out the stakes and opposing stakeholders, but this one goes into more depths. I was arguing about this a few days back with some esteemed boarders (hi, @Padraig, @Lyanna Stark, @zollo!) and I admit I share the concerns of some of the nations which have wanted conditional candidacy or provisional candidacy or something of the sort rather than acceding to Ukraine's desire for unconditional candidacy and rapid ascension. I think Der Spiegel lays out the issues very well, and I'm glad to see a mention that Ukraine has started to signal that it'll accept a conditonal candidacy if necessary.

[JGP]

Where was this discussion, Ran? On the board? I’d like to read this back and forth.

[Werthead]

The article does identify some good points. Serbia and Bosnia are cosying up to China and, whilst it might not be on the cards imminently, the prospect of them entering into some kind of security alliance with China similar to the one that China recently signed with the Solomon Islands would be hugely problematic in the heart of Europe. China recently delivered a new AA system to Serbia and delivered it with a huge show of aerial power, airlifting the units in just a matter of hours with their latest, state-of-the-art transport aircraft. China is definitely flexing its muscles and looking for further inroads.

However, the Serbian deal was also seen as something of a rebuke to not just the EU, which was seen as dragging its feet over helping sort out long-term problems in the Balkans and expanding into that area, but also a rebuke to Russia that Serbia was not simply going to continue being taken for granted as a Russian ally or proxy in the region (I believe Serbia cancelled an earlier deal with Russia to get the new AA systems from China). Keeping countries on-side by not alienating them into the Moscow or Beijing orbit would be a strong move, but also the EU can't just use that to justify letting its own standards slip and admit countries who can later on paralyse the union's decision-making process (a problem we already see with Hungary, and would be seeing more of with Poland if they weren't so full-throttle opposed to Russia).

It's a difficult juggling act and Macron's plan for a "Greater EU" I think was seen as an attempt to circumvent the problem by shoving all the "difficult cases" into an EU-in-name-only with only a few surface benefits but none of the meat. That plan now seems to have been shelved again.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

29 minutes ago, JGP said:

Where was this discussion, Ran? On the board? I’d like to read this back and forth.

You are not esteemed enough for that.

[JGP]

Never bothered my snoopy ass before. :p

[Ran]

44 minutes ago, JGP said:

Where was this discussion, Ran? On the board? I’d like to read this back and forth.

On FB, in Lyanna's timeline if you are on there and in her friend list.

Basically I was the skeptic about candidacy, whereas Pod and the others were more open to it. As it stands, it seems we'll both be right based on Der Spiegel's reporting -- they were right they'll be named candidates and that it matters that they're named candidates, but I was right that it'll be a conditional candidacy.

[JGP]

9 minutes ago, Ran said:

On FB, in Lyanna's timeline if you are on there and in her friend list.

Basically I was the skeptic about candidacy, whereas Pod and the others were more open to it. As it stands, it seems we'll both be right based on Der Spiegel's reporting -- they were right they'll be named candidates and that it matters that they're named candidates, but I was right that it'll be a conditional candidacy.

Ah ok. Yeah, I cut Facebook out years ago after the Cambridge Analytica shit dropped. Anna and Joris should come back to the board   

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Esteemed and facebook in one sentence...

[Padraig]

4 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Spiegel on accelarated candidate status of Ukraine and the problems (Yes, English language)

I don't know.  I think these articles seem to get themselves tied up in knots between talking about Ukrainian accession and Ukrainian candidature at the same time.

For example, this line...

Quote

The country fulfills all accession requirements to a T and has been hoping for almost an entire generation for movement on its path to the EU – and now must watch from the sidelines as it is passed by a Ukraine that is leveraging its status as a war victim.

Ukraine is obviously not passing it out, since it is already a candidate and Ukraine isn't.  Is there a risk that Ukraine could reach accession before it?  Maybe but it seems a bit early to get obsessed with that.

And Netherlands seems to have removed its objection about North Macedonia joining the EU.  However recent, they shouldn't get facts wrong (although maybe I have misinterpreted the Dutch's position).

This paragraph is plain terrible.

Quote

The fact that the Ukrainian application was processed within just a few months triggered no small amount of anger in the Balkans. "It is an impropriety, if not an obscenity, how the EU is showering its attentions on the new wunderkind Ukraine," says a source close to Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. Since the expansion promise delivered in Thessaloniki in 2003, there have been "numerous vicious fouls" committed against the Balkan countries, the source says.

I'd be curious to know how the Balkans really feel about Ukrainian candidature.  But I wouldn't pay much mind to what a source close to Vučić has to say about it.  Giving him a platform without any context about some of the dubious things going on in Serbia is a bit much.

And i'm really curious to understand what they mean by "conditions".  There is a mention that Bosnia was given 14 conditions that it must meet before it become a candidates.  It still hasn't managed those reforms and it still isn't a candidate.  Is the EU going to invent a new status to handle Ukraine?  As I said, these articles are unclear, but everyone keeps saying that Ukraine will be a candidate.  A candidate with conditions is still a candidate.  It will make it easier for the EU to remove the candidate status if those conditions aren't reached at a future time.  There is a certain logic to that.  If it clearly ends up with a new division 2 candidate status, that's a slap in the face.

But that article isn't particularly clear.  Probably because it doesn't know.  Although it is better written than the ForeignPolicy article.

My earlier argument wasn't so much about whether I think they will be candidate (i'm not a particularly optimistic person. :)).  More about whether I think they should be a candidate.

[Maithanet]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine is still requesting heavy artillery but apparently there's been a shift in focus this week and they are now asking for systems to help plug their AA network. Their AA network is still doing well and suspected low stocks of Russian PGMs is reducing the danger to western Ukraine, but Ukraine is keen to plug up the gaps.

I would also think that if Ukraine is about to deploy small numbers of very advanced heavy artillery like himars, they would devote significant aa resources to protecting them. 

[Wilbur]

In addition to protecting them, provisioning them is a huge effort, as the rockets and their pods are gigantic, the fuel needed for the multiple trucks used to supply them is significant, and so on.

Ukraine Update: Not enough? Here's the challenge of moving even four HIMARS (dailykos.com)

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, Wilbur said:

In addition to protecting them, provisioning them is a huge effort, as the rockets and their pods are gigantic, the fuel needed for the multiple trucks used to supply them is significant, and so on.

Ukraine Update: Not enough? Here's the challenge of moving even four HIMARS (dailykos.com)

If it is such a big logistical challenge then I wonder if that might have an impact on where the Ukranians deploy them. The biggest tactical advantage would seem to be countering Russian artillery in the Donbas but perhaps it might be easier to keep them supplied on the Kherson front.