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#16 Ukraine the brave, the whole World is watching!


DireWolfSpirit

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18 hours ago, Werthead said:

They were fighting on the streets of Izium a few weeks ago, so this isn't that far behind the lines, but I suspect this was to put the HIMARS launcher well within Ukraine's defenses (especially AA).

They really need to go after Russian artillery. Russian artillery was for weeks doing shoot and scoot but as Ukrainian counter-artillery was worn down and forced to retire (destroyed, damaged or out of ammo), they've apparently gotten a lot lazier and stayed in place longer, resulting in some losses to drones but also allowing them to concentrate stronger barrages of fire for longer.

All indications are that the Ukrainians are using HIMARs and their remaining missiles to target Command+Control sites and Ammo dumps.  Early indications are that they have been having success with this.  Like this article from Euromaiden Press.  and this tweet

I suppose its debatable whether ammo dumps or artillery pieces themselves are higher priority targets, but there are assuredly fewer ammo dumps than total artillery pieces in the Donbas area.  If Ukraine can hit most/all of them, that will make an immediate difference in the fighting. 

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5 hours ago, Werthead said:

UK intelligence is that Russia has started deploying the last wave of recruits from its "shadow mobilisation" plan, namely those over 40, some people dismissed from the military for various reasons and a relatively small number of volunteers they managed to recruit through a campaign. The fighting quality of this force is not expected to be significant.

The 40,000 Syrian and Arab fighters who were supposed to join the fight have also largely failed to materialise, with the total number of confirmed Syrian fighters in Ukraine believed to only be around 30. Syria's attempts to recruit on Russia's behalf have been desultory, with Syrian government officials even warning of a renewed push in the civil war if significant numbers of regime-loyal fighters were to go to Ukraine. Russia's other allies in the region are apparently hedging their bets and not offering support, certainly not material support (although Iran reportedly has sent of its older Russian equipment on a promise to have it replaced with modern equivalents at some future point, which would not be a cheque I'd accept).

ETA: That's 30 total, not 30,000.

Ukraine gets another break. only 30 new refugees to take in from the Mideast rather than 30,000.

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50 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

If Ukraine had surrendered nothing like that would have happened.*

Pretty easy it would say. 

*not my opinion.

The abusive husband excuse?  

“Why do you make me do things like this?  Why do you make me so angry”?

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Evidence that the Russians are already having an ammo shortage. 

IF Russia needs to take even a brief pause in artillery bombardments in the Donbas that could be a pretty big deal.  Ukraine could bring up supplies, mount local counterattacks and (further) fortify Lysychansk.

 

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There has been artillery fire today in the north near Kharkiv and missile strikes in several areas. There's also disputes about there being "almost" no artillery fire in the Donbas, some reports that there has been shelling around Lysychansk but not as much as previously.

The analysis of how many shells Russia has to fire is interesting. They take the 25 million baseline that the United States had in the late 1990s, run it through what was (probably) fired in Chechnya, Syria, Georgia and Donbas since 2014, plus more aging out, and then additional production since the mid-2000s (when Russia started ramping up again) and they came out with around 20 million available at the low end and 30-40 million at the high end. Based on estimates, the highest figure they could find since February was 7 million, but they note that seems somewhat ludicrous.

Obviously Russia isn't going to fire every single artillery shell in its inventory in one theatre and leave themselves short elsewhere, so at some point they are going to have to reduce their artillery expenditure. Whether that's at 1/3 their total supply or 1/2 or 3/4 is unclear, but at the current rate of expenditure and their estimated rate of replacement, they're probably not going to be able to grind their way all the way to Lviv with this strategy, even removing their manpower issues.

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This is something I was actually wondering about.  When Zolote fell, there were Russian sources claiming there were 1k-2k Ukrainian soldiers trapped in a pocket.  Ukrainian sources claimed that their troops were all evacuated, aside from a small number of rearguard troops.  It looks like the Ukrainians were speaking the truth, because there isn't really any fighting going on in Zolote and there haven't been any reports or videos of hundreds of Ukrainian POWs. 

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8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:
 

This is something I was actually wondering about.  When Zolote fell, there were Russian sources claiming there were 1k-2k Ukrainian soldiers trapped in a pocket.  Ukrainian sources claimed that their troops were all evacuated, aside from a small number of rearguard troops.  It looks like the Ukrainians were speaking the truth, because there isn't really any fighting going on in Zolote and there haven't been any reports or videos of hundreds of Ukrainian POWs. 

Yup. There were also some good stories about how the Ukrainians were prepping the Severodonetsk withdrawal for weeks and when they gave the final order, the troops were in the boats and across the river whilst the Russians didn't realise they were pulling out. The Russians thought bombing the bridges would trap the Ukrainians, they didn't realise they were capable of pulling out by boat so fast. As it stands, blowing the bridges has hindered their attempts to advance into Lysychansk from the north.

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If you want an overly optimistic take on the impact that HIMARs are having in Ukraine, I have just the thing for you.  However, I will say that early indications are that the small number of HIMARs are making a difference.  16 ammo dumps in a week is a big problem for the Russians. 

 

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40 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

If you want an overly optimistic take on the impact that HIMARs are having in Ukraine, I have just the thing for you.  However, I will say that early indications are that the small number of HIMARs are making a difference.  16 ammo dumps in a week is a big problem for the Russians. 

We need to be careful of over-optimism and getting too good a view of things, as perhaps people did back in April, but the mood music for the last few days has been a huge improvement over where we were a few weeks ago. However, until we start seeing the Ukrainians reclaiming significant amounts of territory on the ground, it's best to be cautious.

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After having a day, I fucking hate this wait and watch. 

Why is the international community ok with this. Ukrainians are dying, and the west isn't countering but ok with a chinese/russia market cap. I get compromises aren't hateful, but if we can't back up, or peacekeep, we got to continue bleeding in a way too. 

Everything is such bullshit right now and I've had a fucking day [edit: i just repeated myself and i don't even care lol]  I feel like a POS even complaining about it so I won't beyond that. Lots of people are suffering, but I'll never be alright with this. This needs to be stopped. Can we get one fucking thing right. 

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21 minutes ago, JGP said:

Why is the international community ok with this. Ukrainians are dying, and the west isn't countering but ok with a chinese/russia market cap. I get compromises aren't hateful, but if we can't back up, or peacekeep, we got to continue bleeding in a way too. 

Everything is such bullshit right now and I've had a fucking day [edit: i just repeated myself and i don't even care lol]  I feel like a POS even complaining about it so I won't beyond that. Lots of people are suffering, but I'll never be alright with this. This needs to be stopped. Can we get one fucking thing right. 

We are countering, just not in a way that will cause World War III. We have sent Russia's economy back fifteen years, we have supplied increasingly absurdly heavy weapons to Ukraine and the Russians are grinding themselves into oblivion and a future of either total penury or being a Chinese vassal state.

And yes, a lot of Ukrainians have died and a lot more will die before this is over. But it is up to Ukraine what cost they are willing to pay for victory or survival (and they see the two as the same thing; a peace now ceding territory is simply an invitation to delay the other half of the invasion, not stop it) and it is clear the cost they are willing to pay is very, very high. You wonder if it's a higher cost than some other western countries would be prepared to pay.

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11 hours ago, Werthead said:

Yup. There were also some good stories about how the Ukrainians were prepping the Severodonetsk withdrawal for weeks and when they gave the final order, the troops were in the boats and across the river whilst the Russians didn't realise they were pulling out. The Russians thought bombing the bridges would trap the Ukrainians, they didn't realise they were capable of pulling out by boat so fast. As it stands, blowing the bridges has hindered their attempts to advance into Lysychansk from the north.

It never occurred to them that the Ukrainians understood this new “boat” technology :D

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The Ukrainians also noting that whilst they have used their new heavy long-range artillery, they've also been using their own artillery and rocket systems.

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19 hours ago, SeanF said:

It never occurred to them that the Ukrainians understood this new “boat” technology :D

You mean like bush, cheney, rove, etc. couldn't begin to even conceive that the people living in the near eastern nations knew anything about computers, cell phones, the internet, etc.? 

~~~~~~~~~

However, in this related news, this is good, right? that Turkey has stopped blocking Sweden and Finland from joining NATO?

 

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