Maithanet Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 In the month of June, Russia conquered 1,500 square kilometers of Ukraine, or 0.3%. At that rate, Russia will complete its conquest of Ukraine in February 2050. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, Maithanet said: In the month of June, Russia conquered 1,500 square kilometers of Ukraine, or 0.3%. At that rate, Russia will complete its conquest of Ukraine in February 2050. In a nice tie-in with your new thread, the region will be underwater by then anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said: In a nice tie-in with your new thread, the region will be underwater by then anyway! Sevastopol will merely convert to hosting submarines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Lukashenka is playing Putin like a violin. "I love you, but I can't help you, as my men will mutiny!" Belarus: Officers of the 5th special operations brigade address to Lukashenka • WarTranslated - Dmitri Masinski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Putin: His Life and Times (2022) by Philip Short https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/philip-short/putin-short/ https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781627793674/putin https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-by-philip-short-review-wnr5rfgnx https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/jul/03/putin-his-life-and-times-philip-short-review-collapse-that-shaped-man-who-would-be-tsar https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2022/07/the-banality-of-vladimir-putin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Looks like Lysychansk is on the verge of falling, and certainly Russian forces are in the city centre (Chechen TikTok videos from the centre have been circulating, so that must be fairly secure). The Russians also seem to be making a more general advance on Slovyansk, but relatively slowly so far, and again encountering heavy resistance. Ukraine does seem to have inflicted heavy damage on Russian supply lines and there's all sorts of rumours flying around about Putin considering a "mission accomplished!" announcement in the near future because the Russians urgently need a tactical pause to resupply, but as always it's unclear what's true or what's nonsense or what's wishful thinking. The abandonment of Snake Island may suggest that Russia is considering a reduced outcome where Odesa remains in Ukrainian hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 JFC. Russia has run an exercise simulating a Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Strait/Crimean Bridge and decided it would be a fantastic idea to do this whilst keeping the bridge open to civilian traffic, with predictably chaotic results. It should also be noted that creating a smokescreen around the bridge does not magically change its GPS coordinates, and the Ukrainians would likely target it from beyond visual range anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 I can't speak much to the sense of Russian/Ukrainian/Crimean drivers that they decide to go at anything more than a crawl into that smoke. But then I'm always shocked of footage of people in the northern US acting as if they've never heard of pileups because of frozen roads and poor traction and they just zoom along assuming their brakes will work the same as a nice dry summer day. The Russian exercise is bananas, of course, but I guess they want to look busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Ran said: I can't speak much to the sense of Russian/Ukrainian/Crimean drivers that they decide to go at anything more than a crawl into that smoke. But then I'm always shocked of footage of people in the northern US acting as if they've never heard of pileups because of frozen roads and poor traction and they just zoom along assuming their brakes will work the same as a nice dry summer day. The Russian exercise is bananas, of course, but I guess they want to look busy. Driving in Russia is another level of insane. There is an entire industry of Russian dashcam videos on YouTube showing things that are beyond belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Another great video on the Hostomel airport from Denys in Ukraine: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 Just here to drop two Der Spiegel articles. One describing the decades of political failure, that has lead to the high dependency on Russian gas. I also happened to read that one in the print edition in the waiting room at a Doctor's appointment on Thursday. Second one deals with the economic sanctions on Russia. how they were conceived, and (to a lesser degree) whether they are working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 Girkin sounds pretty glum in his assessment of how the Russian and separatist forces have spent their energy for no real benefits in their occupation of Ukraine over the past few weeks. His assessment is that Ukraine is gathering its strength in reserves and facing a depleted invasion force. Igor Girkin - Doom Frontline Update for the 4 July 2022 • WarTranslated - Dmitri Masinski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 Also interesting, the separatists' assessment of the fall of Lysychansk includes the fact that the Ukrainians successfully exfiltrated their main forces. Which would explain the very paltry spoils of war material captured by the Russians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 One consistent thing in this war has been effective, orderly retreats. They aren't easy to do, and both sides have pulled them off several times. The only big cauldron of surrounded troops occurred in Mariupol, and that was intentional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 7 hours ago, Wilbur said: Girkin sounds pretty glum in his assessment of how the Russian and separatist forces have spent their energy for no real benefits in their occupation of Ukraine over the past few weeks. His assessment is that Ukraine is gathering its strength in reserves and facing a depleted invasion force. Igor Girkin - Doom Frontline Update for the 4 July 2022 • WarTranslated - Dmitri Masinski Well, at least someone who is pessimistic here about Russia, even if it's someone on the Russian side. For several days in a row the news page of my E-Mail provider has been plastered with the same "expert" saying Ukraine can't win and the moment they counter-attack Russia will just mobilize and crush them, so they better get back to negotiations now. Which... is a rather simplistic view that has you ignoring that Putin seems to have his reasons not mobilizing and even if he does, it would still take several months until the new cannon fodder arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 10 hours ago, Maithanet said: One consistent thing in this war has been effective, orderly retreats. They aren't easy to do, and both sides have pulled them off several times. The only big cauldron of surrounded troops occurred in Mariupol, and that was intentional. It's the lack of air superiority by either sides. "Orderly retreats" in the Gulf War and other recent conflicts has been a signal to the enemy to go wild with aerial attacks, but in this conflict neither side are capable or willing to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 The lack of air power has created a strange and unexpected shape for this war, almost two-dimensional and old-fashioned, but with futuristic elements like drones and sophisticated ATGM. If someone wrote a book about a war that included both trench warfare and drones, it would be panned as unrealistic and anachronistic, yet here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luzifer's right hand Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 A russian court has shut down a key oil terminal for the transport of oil from Kazakhstan to the west for at least 30 days for environmental reasons. The terminal is in Russia because Kazakhstan is a landlocked country. The terminal is used for about 80% of the oil exports of Kazakhstan. It is from page news in Austria because we currently get 38,9% of our oil from Kazakhstan. Local news see it as a reaction to Kazakhstan not taking a pro-Russia stance in this conflict and as another step in the economic war between Russia and the EU. The temporary plan for Austria is to switch from natural gas to oil in power generation and industry... We wasted 30 years since Kyoto and could have moved away from fossil fuels way more rapidly... It feels well deserved somehow. If Russia shuts off gas completely things will get bad for our economy quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted July 6, 2022 Author Share Posted July 6, 2022 ^^^That is one of the many terrible consequences of Putin's war of aggression. The whole damn World gets to suffer because of this megalomaniac and his greedlust ambitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Two threads on logistics: TLDR: A big part of why the Kyiv offensive failed is because the Russians couldn't use rail to supply the troops around Kyiv. Relying on trucks, they simply weren't getting the supplies they needed (particularly ammo). In the Donbas, they're right by a rail center, and can easily mass their artillery. That is changing with the arrival of medium and long range artillery (particularly HIMARS). Those are blowing up the ammo dumps. Hiding ammo dumps is extremely hard, because there are always trucks going to and fro. The solutions available to Russia are both bad: Either put the ammo dumps further away and truck it in the final leg (which will slow things down and result in less ammo at the front each day) or try and make do with losing some ammo dumps and just ship more. Either way, better NATO artillery is making Russian logistics much harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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