Ser Scot A Ellison Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Why are we discussing the US Election in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Why are we discussing the US Election in this thread? I'm trying not to; I'm trying to point out that the political environment in the US is not going to lend itself well to continued, long-term support for a Ukraine war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clueless Northman Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 2 hours ago, Werthead said: People on the street in the LPR and DPR who've been polled have said they'd be probably happiest in a federated alignment with Ukraine Without looking at any poll, that would be my gut feeling. They're not Crimea, they've been with Ukraine (not independent, but as a region/province) for a long time, and bilingualism seems to have worked well until 2004 or even 2013. 1 hour ago, KalVsWade said: I also think that he's getting some pushback from European allies on this too - Germany is getting pissy about being forced to do the right things, France doesn't want the war to continue - and we may see pushback from others as the refugee situation gets worse and fuel costs go up in the fall. France and Germany clearly wants it to end fast. Italian current leadership is onboard with ongoing war but most of the political classe seems to want this to end fast as well - including both Salvini and Conte. As for Eastern Europe, Poland is stretched to the limit with millions of refugees and it'll become really hard (and expensive) quite fast, but it's also been the most active and supporting country of all the Union, so I really don't know how their position will evolve. 1 hour ago, KalVsWade said: As to lowering prices fast - I think that's absolutely doable. Gas prices have gone up by something like $1.78 in the last 3 months. While they don't tend to go down as fast, they certainly can go down pretty fast. The main issue I have with this reasoning is that for gas prices to go down fast enough, you'd most probably need to remove sanctions on Russia - or maybe to just end the war but to remove sanctions on Iran and possibly Venezuela. Really, I think it's not just Putin who'll need quite the peace deal to argue to his people that the peace is a good one for them - reducing US economic troubles will be tough and Biden probably also needs to be able to achieve a "good peace deal for Ukraine" - whether it really is or not - in late October, on top of better economy, if he wants to save the day for the Dems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Clueless Northman said: The main issue I have with this reasoning is that for gas prices to go down fast enough, you'd most probably need to remove sanctions on Russia - or maybe to just end the war but to remove sanctions on Iran and possibly Venezuela. Really, I think it's not just Putin who'll need quite the peace deal to argue to his people that the peace is a good one for them - reducing US economic troubles will be tough and Biden probably also needs to be able to achieve a "good peace deal for Ukraine" - whether it really is or not - in late October, on top of better economy, if he wants to save the day for the Dems. I think that's fair. I also think that if Russia ended the war most countries would be happy to remove sanctions on Russia, even if they didn't buy things from them directly. Russia selling oil to the world would increase the supply even if it's not going to Europe. Heck, the oil sanctions basically got introduced what, a month ago? Clearly if Russia de-escalated that'd be on the table too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 2 hours ago, KalVsWade said: I'm trying not to; I'm trying to point out that the political environment in the US is not going to lend itself well to continued, long-term support for a Ukraine war. I dunno man. The US funded war in Afghanistan for almost a decade after Bin Laden was dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Larry of the Lake said: I dunno man. The US funded war in Afghanistan for almost a decade after Bin Laden was dead. Afghanistan didn't make gas cost $5 a gallon. It was a nice, quiet, easy to digest war where people could just happily ignore it for 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, KalVsWade said: Afghanistan didn't make gas cost $5 a gallon. It was a nice, quiet, easy to digest war where people could just happily ignore it for 20 years. Gas prices did rise significantly post 9-11, and people were totally down with it. No one is changing their vote because of gas prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Larry of the Lake said: Gas prices did rise significantly post 9-11, and people were totally down with it. No one is changing their vote because of gas prices. In that case, right after 911, it was because we were attacked directly and pissed off. Not comparable to just telling Ukraine to take a hike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 39 minutes ago, Larry of the Lake said: No one is changing their vote because of gas prices. "I lowered inflation and gas prices by pressuring Zelenskyy into an agreement" as a campaign message that will really turns things around is definitely part of the farce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 41 minutes ago, DMC said: "I lowered inflation and gas prices by pressuring Zelenskyy into an agreement" as a campaign message that will really turns things around is definitely part of the farce. People don't care about the latter part. If Biden actually reduced gas prices and inflation people wouldn't care about what the cost was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 1 minute ago, KalVsWade said: People don't care about the latter part. If Biden actually reduced gas prices and inflation people wouldn't care about what the cost was. Regardless of "the latter part," which is a huge omission, the idea that voters will respond to lowering inflation within the last five months of an election cycle is already tenuous and goes against prior behavior. Further, the idea that if the war ended right now and the sanctions were lifted that would actually result in lowered inflation by November is incredibly dubious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 Ukrainian forces have refocused their defense of Severodonetsk on the industrial areas of the city, taking advantage of greater cover to hold off the Russian advance. However, Russia has apparently regained most of the ground it lost over the weekend. In an interesting move, Russia claims to have deployed its most advanced Su-57 aircraft to the area and used four of them to target Ukrainian air defences. Russia only has 14 Su-57s and officially they are not in service, but it looks like they took the risk of deploying them to gain intel on battlefield performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 This is why gas prices are the least of our worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 Poots loves him some asymmetrical warfare. Feels desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derfel Cadarn Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 37 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: This is why gas prices are the least of our worries. With what army and hardware? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Derfel Cadarn said: With what army and hardware? He’s got lots of nuclear devices. Further… I’m pointing out why we need to keep supporting Ukraine with military hardware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lykos Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 @Ser Scot A Ellison , what looks like a threat to the Baltics and Poland might be an admisson of defeat (Treaty of the Pruth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 25 minutes ago, Lykos said: @Ser Scot A Ellison , what looks like a threat to the Baltics and Poland might be an admisson of defeat (Treaty of the Pruth). I think it's much more internal and external audiences. Russia knows that taking on NATO would mean either Russia's defeat in a conventional war or an absolutely enormous existential risk for its own existence through nuclear brinkmanship. They would only be prepared to risk that if they believed that NATO would not defend its territory, which basically means they believe the United States would not intervene. Under the current administration and situation that's clearly not the case. In 2-3 years time, that may be a different story. I think these threats are meant to show tough talking to a Russian audience - like when Putin said he'd outright nuke Poland if it stationed missile defences there years ago - but are not meant to represent a realistic appraisal of future strategy. It is much more likely, if Russia is successful in Ukraine, that it will look at much softer targets like Moldova or Georgia (even Kazakhstan, if the new government there doesn't start showing more deference despite being an ostensible ally) before they considered the formidable task of taking on NATO, and doing that would also require many years of rebuilding their military forces and declaring a full mobilisation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 Damn, wouldn't that be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lykos Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Werthead said: <snip> I think these threats are meant to show tough talking to a Russian audience <snip> That's my take as well, I just find his choice of historical rolemodels telling. Tangentially related - some reading on what awaits those who irritate the "pro Russian" powers in the D"PR". In Isolation Dispatches from Occupied Donbas by Stanislav Aseyev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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