Will Jon have a significant role at second Dance?

[Odej]

I've always believed that Jon would be too busy involved with his return from the dead, conflicts at the Wall and the succession at Winterfell to turn his eyes to the war between Dany and Aegon, but thinking about it, while Jon is resolving these issues Dany and Aegon also have a lot to sort out before a family reunion.

Aegon is still campaigning for war against Tommem and even if the Lannisters aren't in the best shape they're not really finished to lose quickly, the boy has a long way to go. Daenerys is across the sea with the Dothraki, her dragons are unpredictable, Meereen is at war, Victarion, Marwyn and Tyrion are on their way to her and she has a lot to fix before she packs up and leaves. Its hard for me to believe she will have significant actions in Westeros in TWOW.

So when Aegon and Daenerys finally come to blows it is possible Winterfell already has a new stark lord and Jon knows who his parents are, so when his allegally brother and aunt seek allies for the war between them Jon's feeling may not just be "oh shit, another fight for the throne, who do I support" but also "damn, my relatives are fighting, what do I do?"

Yeah, Jon is a Stark at is heart but we don't know how his mind will come back after a season on the other side/ghost's head. In addition to, being murdered by his companions and having to deal with it after the resurrection, the possible return of a brother who he thought he was dead, the conflict between the freefolk and the North, Winterfell succession issue and finding out that the man he most admired and loved is not actually his father are things the mess with a teenager's head.

[chrisdaw]

No. Estimations about how long something may take are irrelevant because the timeline marches to the author's beat. 

[Odej]

1 hour ago, chrisdaw said:

No. Estimations about how long something may take are irrelevant because the timeline marches to the author's beat. 

Fair. The thing is, Martin has added so many plots, arcs and new characters at Feast and Dance, so much is on the way that it's hard to believe Aegon and Daenerys's war will take a big part of TWOW since Martin has to developing a lot of things.  Like many people I also think the author created things when he should have been ending.

[chrisdaw]

57 minutes ago, Odej said:

Fair. The thing is, Martin has added so many plots, arcs and new characters at Feast and Dance, so much is on the way that it's hard to believe Aegon and Daenerys will have a big part of their war in TWOW since Martin has to developing a lot of things.  Like many people I also think the author created things when he should have been eding.

GRRM hasn't shown any appetite for compressing the story at the expense of character arcs, as he has said is a possibility it's most likely the series will just get longer if it needs to.

I think piecing together the story he has planned in a chronological order is probably the most major hurdle, the Meereenese Knot was pretty much that, but getting the north/Jon to align with the south to collide when he wants it to doesn't strike me as too challenging. Jon can stay dead as long as he wants and the north can develop as fast or slowly as need be because the POVs are not so intertwined and I think there's only the one tent pole POV in Jon.

Consider Stannis literally went and sat on his island for a whole book until GRRM was ready for him.

[Moiraine Sedai]

Jon is the incarnation of the Night’s King. He will be the antagonists who will bring the Long Night and his wights to Westeros. He’s the enemy of the Targaryens and the Light.  Warmth and sunlight will return after he and Bran are defeated.  

[BlackLightning]

17 hours ago, Odej said:

I've always believed that Jon would be too busy involved with his return from the dead, conflicts at the Wall and the succession at Winterfell to turn his eyes to the war between Dany and Aegon, but thinking about it, while Jon is resolving these issues Dany and Aegon also have a lot to sort out before a family reunion.

Aegon is still campaigning for war against Tommem and even if the Lannisters aren't in the best shape they're not really finished to lose quickly, the boy has a long way to go. Daenerys is across the sea with the Dothraki, her dragons are unpredictable, Meereen is at war, Victarion, Marwyn and Tyrion are on their way to her and she has a lot to fix before she packs up and leaves. Its hard for me to believe she will have significant actions in Westeros in TWOW.

So when Aegon and Daenerys finally come to blows it is possible Winterfell already has a new stark lord and Jon knows who his parents are, so when his allegally brother and aunt seek allies for the war between them Jon's feeling may not just be "oh shit, another fight for the throne, who do I support" but also "damn, my relatives are fighting, what do I do?"

Yeah, Jon is a Stark at is heart but we don't know how his mind will come back after a season on the other side/ghost's head. In addition to, being murdered by his companions and having to deal with it after the resurrection, the possible return of a brother who he thought he was dead, the conflict between the freefolk and the North, Winterfell succession issue and finding out that the man he most admired and loved is not actually his father are things the mess with a teenager's head.

I think that there is going to be a space in time between dealing with say, being betrayed and murdered by his subordinates and comrades and dealing with the Targaryen/Blackfyre feud

Like I think the whole Winterfell succession issue, the conflict between the Free Folk and the North and the Boltons, and the drama with the Night's Watch will all be The Winds of Winter. Learning (and accepting) his true identity and so asserting himself in the larger affairs of Westeros as its one true king is more par for the course for A Dream of Spring. His residual trauma from being betrayed, murdered and then resurrected will probably carry over across the last two (?) books.

I think there's time for him to get involved in the Second Dance. But as a mediator or a peacekeeper not as a active rival combatant.

[BlackLightning]

1 hour ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Jon is the incarnation of the Night’s King. He will be the antagonists who will bring the Long Night and his wights to Westeros. He’s the enemy of the Targaryens and the Light.  Warmth and sunlight will return after he and Bran are defeated.  

I am inclined to agree.

But in my opinion, it's Stannis who will be a Night King type figure. Not Jon.

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

I think it's safe to assume that whatever happens Jon will have a significant role (lot of wasted pages if he doesn't). I don't know that a second dance is a sure thing (3 dragons make for a pretty anticlimactic successor to the Dying of the Dragons as portrayed in F&B), but whatever happens if Jon's not central it's probably a red herring.

[Lord Varys]

Not very likely, since very few people would even consider him as a potential pretender for the Iron Throne while fair-haired and purple-eyed Aegon - a son of Rhaegar's who actually looks the part! - is still alive.

Also, if Jon were to put forth his own claim he would not be in an ideal position to have a romance with Daenerys. She is not going to fall for a guy who tries to steal her throne.

And whenever Euron and Dany and Aegon and whoever else will play a big rule in this Second Dance ... the North should be a completely depleted wasteland. Stannis and the Boltons will further weaken their military capapabilities and no sane or rational leader up there would push for another mundane war at this point. Most definitely not while the Others are still knocking at the door.

And no matter how things go, I cannot even see Jon as a ruler in the North. He is no Stark, and if events were to propel him into a position where he would be offered power it would have be a very ugly setting where he would take up the mantle of the Lord Stark of Winterfell ... much less the crown of the King in the North.

He knows at least one of his sisters - Arya, his favorite - is still alive. And Sansa's true identity might be revealed to the public (long) before Stannis leaves the picture. And then we also have Bran and Rickon in the mix - folks at the Wall and in the North might hear from either in the near future - Manderly and his allies already know that Bran and Rickon are still alive, etc.

At best one could see Jon act as a kind of regent, ruling the North in the name of Rickon or Brandon or Arya or Sansa - either in their absence/'until they are found' or until they are of age. Rickon, Brandon and Arya definitely could not rule in their own right - they would need and would likely be willing to accept a regent and guardian acting in their name. But Sansa wouldn't, never mind her young age. Even if she had to accept a regent, we would likely see Littlefinger or Harrold Hardyng (if she marries him) act in that capacity.

Jon would likely not have sufficient strength/authority in such a position to actually have sufficient support to make a bid for the Iron Throne, even if he wanted to.

[Rondo]

Jon is the "hero" of the White Walkers.  The Others had to have their own prophecies about the man who would open the wall for them so they could invade the land of the living.  Jon is that person who will open the gates for the Others.  He will betray the wall again to let the Others through.  

The Dance is not between Daenerys and Aegon.  It is between the Dragon and the Ice Dragon.  Dragon is Supreme.  As Daenerys is the Supreme for the people, Jon will be the Supreme leader of the Others.  

[Rosetta Stone]

A second dance is not guaranteed to be war.  Dance also means courtship, marriage, and negotiation.  It does not usually mean a duel. 

Jon has already carried out his purpose.  He made decisions which destroyed the order of the night's watch.  His role when he makes his return will be darker.  He will skinchange and lead an army of wights against the North. 

[EggBlue]

no , I'm not even sure that Jon's Targaryen heritage will become common knowledge in the books, let alone he participates in Targaryen civil war. I'm convinced that Jon's parentage will play a role in his own destiny (whatever that is) and in his character arc. and that's about it... 

one more thing: does anyone have a link to whatever interview George had on the "second dance"?  is it confirmed that there'll be a "Dance" in the sense of a civil war or was he merely talking about the dance in the fifth book? ...  considering George has said there will be multiple asses resting on the Iron Throne before end of the story and Aeron's visions , I've been thinking if Aegon will be removed from the throne by Euron before Daenerys has a chance to declare war against him

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, EggBlue said:

no , I'm not even sure that Jon's Targaryen heritage will become common knowledge in the books, let alone he participates in Targaryen civil war. I'm convinced that Jon's parentage will play a role in his own destiny (whatever that is) and in his character arc. and that's about it... 

one more thing: does anyone have a link to whatever interview George had on the "second dance"?  is it confirmed that there'll be a "Dance" in the sense of a civil war or was he merely talking about the dance in the fifth book?

I don't have a link, but the context of the question there was a fan asking about the Dance of the Dragons (back when we had effectively no information about the war) and then George said something along those lines: 'Which one do you mean - the first or the second Dance?'

This implies that there will be a Second Dance of the Dragons mirroring the historical Dance at least in certain aspects. It seems clear he meant a war there and, presumably, a struggle between at least two Targaryen pretenders (and one imagines that one is female and the other male - because that should be deciding factor why this war will be named after the historical Dance).

2 hours ago, EggBlue said:

...  considering George has said there will be multiple asses resting on the Iron Throne before end of the story and Aeron's visions , I've been thinking if Aegon will be removed from the throne by Euron before Daenerys has a chance to declare war against him

That is not unlikely at all, considering Euron's build-up as a threat. Although this could also mean that Euron swoops in and seizes the throne in Aegon's absence. Say, Aegon takes the throne early in TWoW but doesn't linger long in KL. He could march to the Riverlands to restore order there, and he could press on to the Westerlands to deal with the Lannisters. He could also march down south to help deal with the Ironborn situation.

Euron having a fleet means he can move much faster.

However, in such a scenario I don't think Daenerys and Aegon will become mortal enemies. An Aegon who lost his throne and might be threatened in the field won't be a particularly powerful or impressive pretender.

But then - the throne could also pass from Tommen to Myrcella and only then to another party. It is really difficult to say at that point.

[Odej]

8 hours ago, EggBlue said:

no , I'm not even sure that Jon's Targaryen heritage will become common knowledge in the books, let alone he participates in Targaryen civil war. I'm convinced that Jon's parentage will play a role in his own destiny (whatever that is) and in his character arc. and that's about it... 

one more thing: does anyone have a link to whatever interview George had on the "second dance"?  is it confirmed that there'll be a "Dance" in the sense of a civil war or was he merely talking about the dance in the fifth book? ...  considering George has said there will be multiple asses resting on the Iron Throne before end of the story and Aeron's visions , I've been thinking if Aegon will be removed from the throne by Euron before Daenerys has a chance to declare war against him

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Concerning_the_Dance_of_the_Dragons

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not very likely, since very few people would even consider him as a potential pretender for the Iron Throne while fair-haired and purple-eyed Aegon - a son of Rhaegar's who actually looks the part! - is still alive.

Also, if Jon were to put forth his own claim he would not be in an ideal position to have a romance with Daenerys. She is not going to fall for a guy who tries to steal her throne.

And whenever Euron and Dany and Aegon and whoever else will play a big rule in this Second Dance ... the North should be a completely depleted wasteland. Stannis and the Boltons will further weaken their military capapabilities and no sane or rational leader up there would push for another mundane war at this point. Most definitely not while the Others are still knocking at the door.

And no matter how things go, I cannot even see Jon as a ruler in the North. He is no Stark, and if events were to propel him into a position where he would be offered power it would have be a very ugly setting where he would take up the mantle of the Lord Stark of Winterfell ... much less the crown of the King in the North.

He knows at least one of his sisters - Arya, his favorite - is still alive. And Sansa's true identity might be revealed to the public (long) before Stannis leaves the picture. And then we also have Bran and Rickon in the mix - folks at the Wall and in the North might hear from either in the near future - Manderly and his allies already know that Bran and Rickon are still alive, etc.

At best one could see Jon act as a kind of regent, ruling the North in the name of Rickon or Brandon or Arya or Sansa - either in their absence/'until they are found' or until they are of age. Rickon, Brandon and Arya definitely could not rule in their own right - they would need and would likely be willing to accept a regent and guardian acting in their name. But Sansa wouldn't, never mind her young age. Even if she had to accept a regent, we would likely see Littlefinger or Harrold Hardyng (if she marries him) act in that capacity.

Jon would likely not have sufficient strength/authority in such a position to actually have sufficient support to make a bid for the Iron Throne, even if he wanted to.

By having a more significant role I didn't mean he would necessarily have a claim for the throne, but could actively support one side, more likely Daenerys. What could Jon do for her I have no idea, but we know they will meet in some point in the story and unlike the tv show it could be for another reason than him ask her for help against the Others, even if this end up happening. I also don't see Jon as the ruler of the North, nor as a regent (he ranged out too much with the wildlings for the Northmen to see him nicely and he is a bastard). Jon doesn't fit in anywhere and he can feel it even more now.

Jon has always wanted to be a Stark, but he was never one of them and even refused be legitimized; he found a new family and a life purpose in the Nightswatch and in the fight against the Others, but since he couldn't let his feelings for his little sister behind (and other stuff) he was killed by his own comrades; he even stayed with the freefolk for a while and feel in love for a wildling girl, but he was never one of them. Now he is about to discover that his father is a Targaryen, but he himself is not really a Targaryen.

I still believe he would end up playing a big hole in the fight against the Others, but I also think after what happened to him he may tell everyone to fuck off and walk away from the fight for a while, trying to find his place.

[Curled Finger]

Yah a 2nd Dance with 3 dragons is tough to get really excited about...At this point we have 2 dragons in Mereen where Victarion and that lousy dragon binder are on a collision course of some sort.  Viserion seems to be injured.  Maybe Tyrion can help and maybe not.  Maybe injured will make him more susceptible to the horn?  A 2nd DoD would be a great lot of fun if those dragons are all pitted against each other.   Can they be?   Sure, they need riders and those riders' wills.  If all 3 met in the skies above Westeros as adversaries that could be fun to read.  More fun than wildfyre at any rate.  Lots of people believe Euron will get a dragon--he is the Batman of this story--he's got all the cool toys.   Come to think of it, there are parallels o' plenty between Euron and the Joker.   I like it, give him a dragon and all the toys the Celtigars are hiding away.   

I don't know that Aegon will get a dragon.   How would that happen?  Didn't work out that well for Quentyn.  Drogon is bonded to Dani.  If she's her normal combustive self she won't dig lil nephew screwing her invasion up.  So what, Rhaegal sees Aegon on the battlefield and decides he's the guy he wants?  More likely Rhaegal sees Aegon and he looks like a tasty treat.   I just don't see it.  

I'm not sure what I expect of Jon.  I can't see him coming back with purple eyes and silver gold hair or that quirky sense of entitlement peculiar to Targaryens.  A dragon could be the single way he can get his otherness across all the Stark values stuff.   A warg with a dragon.  That's bitchen really.  

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Odej said:

By having a more significant role I didn't mean he would necessarily have a claim for the throne, but would actively support one side, more likely Daenerys. What could Jon do for her I have no idea, but we know they will meet in some point in the story and unlike the tv show it could be for another reason than him ask her for help against the Others, even if this end up happening.

I context, I think, Dany's main - perhaps even the decisive - motivation in her decision to go to Westeros at all will be the threat of the Others and the role prophecy alleges she is going to play in their defeat. After all, there is a reason why Archmaester Marwyn is on his way to Dany ... and why George decided to have Sam inform him about what's transpired at the Wall. If Daenerys were motivated by a mundane desire for Conquest she would likely postpone the invasion of Westeros until next spring/summer. There is no reason in the world but the Others thing that could cause her to think to war in Westeros in winter is a great idea.

In that sense, I do expect Dany to reach out to Jon/the gang at the Wall immediately after her arrival in Westeros, possibly even before she sets foot on the continent by sending a liaison or ambassador ahead. She could, for instance, sent one of the other dragonriders whoever they are going to be - or she herself could fly ahead to see this Wall for herself while her armies are still in the Dothraki Sea, at Pentos, Volantis, etc. On Drogon she could arrive at Castle Black in a couple of days even if she were to start her flight in Essos. We could see Tyrion acting as her envoy if he were to become a dragonrider. Or she and Tyrion might show up at the Wall together on their respective dragons.

Vice versa, like in the show, Jon/whoever runs the North and is threatened by the Others will inevitably reach out to Daenerys once they learn she is on her way and comes with dragons. Jon already told Tycho Nestoris in ADwD that a dragon at the Wall would be a great asset.

Things may get somewhat more complicated depending what Stannis is going to do in the near future and how the Northern gang is going to judge Aegon. Jon hates the Lannisters and doesn't really think King Tommen and his government are going to help him, but he might send envoys to Aegon's court should he learn that Rhaegar's son has toppled Tommen and sits on the Iron Throne.

3 minutes ago, Odej said:

I also don't see Jon as the ruler of the North, nor as a regent (he ranged out too much with the wildlings for the Northmen to see him nicely). Jon doesn't fit in anywhere or at least he can feel it even more now.

I could only see Jon in such a role if Rickon were to end up at the Wall and in his care. Then something like that could happen. But I don't see anyone calling on Jon to serve as a regent if the Stark pretender in question were already in the care of different people. If Rickon ended up with the Manderlys, then Lord Wyman or Ser Wylis would likely put themselves up as regent, solidifying their hold on Rickon by betrothing/marrying to a Manderly.

But we should also not dismiss the effect of Jon's impending resurrection. While some people might be afraid of him thereafter, it could also be seen as a sign of divine favor, causing him to become the focal point of a religious-political movement.

That said - chances are not that high that many actual Northmen are going to witness his resurrection, so whoever gets fanatical about Jesus Jon might be found about the black brothers, wildlings, and Melisandre's followers. I don't think that will be enough to give him sufficient standing with the Northmen.

3 minutes ago, Odej said:

Jon has always wanted to be a Stark, but he was never one of them and even refused be legitimized; he found a new family and a life purpose in the Nightswatch and in the fight against the Others, but since he could let his feelings for his little sister behind (and other stuff) he was killed by his own comrades; he even stayed with the freefolk for a while and feel in love for a wildling girl, but he was never one of them. Now he is about to discover that his father is a Targaryen, but he himself is not really a Targaryen.

Well, things are really confused there and it depends on the timeline what's going to happen. I mean, there is, perhaps, a will of Robb's out there which legitimizes Jon as a Stark and which also names him heir presumptive to the North if Robb were to die without issue (which he did). Now, Howland Reed, who may have access to that will at this point also knows who Jon actually is, so he is not likely to want Jon to go with the will - even more so since he actually sent his children to Bran, indicating that he might know/expect that they and Bran are still alive and beyond the Wall with Bloodraven.

And with many other Northmen also knowing the younger sons of Ned are still alive, it is very unlikely many would support Jon. At least not while Rickon yet lives - Bran the Broken they would pass over in the heartbeat, but not the younger boy.

3 minutes ago, Odej said:

I still believe he would end up playing a big hole in the fight against the Others, but I also think after what happened to him he may tell everyone to fuck off and walk away from the fight for a while, trying to find his place.

I think that Jon's time in Ghost's body will exact a heavy toll on him. He will be more beast than man upon his resurrection, especially if he were to be stuck in the wolf for more than a few days. I mean, there is great potential for complication there - Jon will be traumatized by his death, so Ghost-Jon might run amok, attacking people and running away into the wild. It might fall to Bran to reach out to him, possibly with the help of Varamyr and his pack - who are conveniently still around but played no further role in ADwD.

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

On 6/8/2022 at 1:40 AM, Rosetta Stone said:

A second dance is not guaranteed to be war.  Dance also means courtship, marriage, and negotiation.  It does not usually mean a duel. 

Jon has already carried out his purpose.  He made decisions which destroyed the order of the night's watch.  His role when he makes his return will be darker.  He will skinchange and lead an army of wights against the North. 

Yeah, it's pretty clear that Jon hates the North and her people and wants to do vile murder as often and cruely as he can so this is a logical next step for his character.

[Rondo]

I can see Jon Wight riding a giant ice spider ahead of an army of wights.  Jon will do anything to help Arya.  He will compound the tragedy of his errors and send the wights to ravage the north to find Arya.  

[James Arryn]

I get that the numbers make a second dance seem less dramatic, but think of it this way: all of the dragons from the first dance originated from the 3 of Aegon and his sisters (well 1 was still alive). If those original 3 had killed each other rather than cooperated it would have reduced dragons and the Targaryens and their dragon-power at least as much if not more than the first Dance. 
 

 

[nyser1]

On 6/9/2022 at 5:05 PM, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

Yeah, it's pretty clear that Jon hates the North and her people and wants to do vile murder as often and cruely as he can so this is a logical next step for his character.

Sarcasm?