Will Jon have a significant role at second Dance?

[nyser1]

On 6/6/2022 at 6:15 PM, Odej said:

I've always believed that Jon would be too busy involved with his return from the dead, conflicts at the Wall and the succession at Winterfell to turn his eyes to the war between Dany and Aegon, but thinking about it, while Jon is resolving these issues Dany and Aegon also have a lot to sort out before a family reunion.

Aegon is still campaigning for war against Tommem and even if the Lannisters aren't in the best shape they're not really finished to lose quickly, the boy has a long way to go. Daenerys is across the sea with the Dothraki, her dragons are unpredictable, Meereen is at war, Victarion, Marwyn and Tyrion are on their way to her and she has a lot to fix before she packs up and leaves. Its hard for me to believe she will have significant actions in Westeros in TWOW.

So when Aegon and Daenerys finally come to blows it is possible Winterfell already has a new stark lord and Jon knows who his parents are, so when his allegally brother and aunt seek allies for the war between them Jon's feeling may not just be "oh shit, another fight for the throne, who do I support" but also "damn, my relatives are fighting, what do I do?"

Yeah, Jon is a Stark at is heart but we don't know how his mind will come back after a season on the other side/ghost's head. In addition to, being murdered by his companions and having to deal with it after the resurrection, the possible return of a brother who he thought he was dead, the conflict between the freefolk and the North, Winterfell succession issue and finding out that the man he most admired and loved is not actually his father are things the mess with a teenager's head.

I don't buy the "dark Jon". I can see him having a darker side particularly if resurrected by the Lord of Light. But I think he will retain his memory and be more of a figure of justice and balance than evil or cruelty.

[Darth Sidious]

2 hours ago, nyser1 said:

I don't buy the "dark Jon". I can see him having a darker side particularly if resurrected by the Lord of Light. But I think he will retain his memory and be more of a figure of justice and balance than evil or cruelty.

Justice! Jon is not going to bring justice. Janos Slynt didn’t get any justice from Jon. Jon misused and abused his authority to murder his family’s enemy. He chose not to punish a deserter who came back to attack the Wall because he needed him for an unlawful and morally reprehensible mission. 

[Here's Looking At You, Kid]

Jon's last thoughts were disturbing, to say the least.  He was thinking of revenge and Arya instead of thinking about saving the realm from the Others.  Those very same thoughts which drove him to betray the Nightswatch.  His role is to disrupt Westeros and make the people an easy prey for the Others. 

[EggBlue]

4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Jon's last thoughts were disturbing, to say the least.  He was thinking of revenge and Arya instead of thinking about saving the realm from the Others.  Those very same thoughts which drove him to betray the Nightswatch.  His role is to disrupt Westeros and make the people an easy prey for the Others. 

I mean ..there were 4 knives involved . that's disturbing enough to give one disturbing thoughts ... 

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 6/7/2022 at 2:43 PM, BlackLightning said:

I am inclined to agree.

But in my opinion, it's Stannis who will be a Night King type figure. Not Jon.

Stannis is not a skin changer. He doesn’t have Stark blood. The NK was a Stark. Jon is a Stark. 

[Loose Bolt]

15 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Jon is a Stark.

He is also a Targ and so it is possible that he descendant of Azor Ahai/Bloodstone Emperor. So if he sacrifices either of his sisters he could gain a flaming sword.

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 6/14/2022 at 8:22 AM, Loose Bolt said:

He is also a Targ and so it is possible that he descendant of Azor Ahai/Bloodstone Emperor. So if he sacrifices either of his sisters he could gain a flaming sword.

I don’t think he is a Targaryen. Mance or Brandon is his dad. But yeah, it will be interesting to me if Jon sacrifices Arya and gets an ice dragon in return. It has to be Arya because she holds the most value to Jon. 

[Odej]

2 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

I don’t think he is a Targaryen. Mance or Brandon is his dad. But yeah, it will be interesting to me if Jon sacrifices Arya and gets an ice dragon in return. It has to be Arya because she holds the most value to Jon. 

Can you explain this theory of Mance being Jon's dad? People mentioned it sometimes here but I never understand where it comes from.

[Roswell]

He will have a big role in the North.  He's the NK and Arya will be his corpse bride.  

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 6/15/2022 at 11:54 AM, Odej said:

Can you explain this theory of Mance being Jon's dad? People mentioned it sometimes here but I never understand where it comes from.

Mance and Lyanna knew each other. Mance was present at Harrenhal. They had liaisons. He got Lyanna pregnant right before she ran away.

[Daeron the Daring]

It is pretty safe to assume Jon will be in a position of power the time Daenerys arrives, with that position ranging from Lord Commander to Lord Regent of the North. Lord of Winterfell or King in the North? Not so likely. Even if he was recogniseb by any twisted means as a legitimate heir of Robb, he would likely give up his position in favour of Rickon, who is a really important character, if we go after George. I can imagine him becoming Lord Regent in case of a larger power vacuum after Stannis, the Boltons, and maybe even the current Lord Manderly get out of the picture. That way, he wouldn't become a good marriage material either to Daenerys, hence why it'll not happen for political gains and whatnot.

Now, in any case, I imagine Jon won't be too inclined to dive deep into southern conflicts, but rather reach out for anyone he could, cause his biggest concern should always remain the one beyond the Wall, and I think that's what's gonna happen.

On 6/8/2022 at 10:06 PM, Lord Varys said:

I think that Jon's time in Ghost's body will exact a heavy toll on him. He will be more beast than man upon his resurrection, especially if he were to be stuck in the wolf for more than a few days. I mean, there is great potential for complication there - Jon will be traumatized by his death, so Ghost-Jon might run amok, attacking people and running away into the wild. It might fall to Bran to reach out to him, possibly with the help of Varamyr and his pack - who are conveniently still around but played no further role in ADwD.

This raises the question of how much of a public knowledge his return from the dead will be, but also Bloodraven's involvement on Jon's whole life so far. If he and Bran were to ever change the course of the story so directly, it likely means Brynden had been doing it for a long time now.

[Lord Varys]

15 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

That way, he wouldn't become a good marriage material either to Daenerys, hence why it'll not happen for political gains and whatnot.

Jon could be the Great Emperor of all the North and he couldn't really offer anything of value to Daenerys. It is winter now, and the North is already war-torn. And it will be much worse by the time she arrives. Daenerys would not bother with the North in winter unless she wanted to help them with the Others. And if we are realistic then at this point everything she would need to 'conquer' the North would be to fly across their castles with her dragon. A Targaryen restoration could mean justice for the Red Wedding and vengeance against the Freys and Boltons and Lannisters and help in the fight against the Others.

In any case, though, whatever is going to happen between these two will likely be a romance, so it won't matter what they can offer each other politically. It might even turn out that they meet each other incognito or something along those lines - say, somewhere beyond the Wall or in the middle of nowhere.

And we should also not discount the possibility that Jon will be in the south when Daenerys shows up. If he were to learn the truth about his parentage sooner than expected he might be motivated to personally travel to KL to meet with his half-brother, King Aegon VI. Even if not, there are reasons why he might travel down south in attempt to convince people to take the threat of the Others more seriously. He could want to meet with Sansa in the Vale, for instance.

15 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

This raises the question of how much of a public knowledge his return from the dead will be, but also Bloodraven's involvement on Jon's whole life so far. If he and Bran were to ever change the course of the story so directly, it likely means Brynden had been doing it for a long time now.

Well, the direwolf omen, the direwolf pups, and the raven sign helping Jon to get elected Lord Commander seem to be things Bloodraven (or Bran, if he will be able to reach through time) were involved with.

But I don't think this tells us more than Bloodraven/Bran want somebody competent in charge - not that they are messing around with prophecy and whatnot.

[Daeron the Daring]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon could be the Great Emperor of all the North and he couldn't really offer anything of value to Daenerys. It is winter now, and the North is already war-torn. And it will be much worse by the time she arrives.

I disagree. The North didn't muster as many troops as it could to begin with when Robb went on his campaign, cause it was harvesting time. Other than that, I know very well that there are ongoing conflicts in the North, but you also have to consider that it'll be settled very early on, with presumably a "Stark victory" or something. If you take into account that actual word that the Others are coming spreads, people will flee the North like flies, with people being displaced. If an army was to gather at the Wall, with the backup of any southern authorities, it would likely be enough to stop the Others there. We need actual human stupidity and carelessness for the Wall to fall, and my bet is that it will. But with people forced to leave their homes anyway, we can count on many more arms to be at hand (yknow). These people will have a reason to fight unless they leave the continent for good. I may remember not so well, but the North is among the most prepared kingdoms for the Winter, just not the Others.

And the north could especially offer much if it creates a facion with the Vale and the Riverlands, which it likely will, through the legacy of Robb and the blood between the Vale and Rickon, either via Sansa's marriage to Harry or via Sweetrobin. In the case of the Riverlands, Daenerys would have to choose between the Tullys (with strong ties to the North), or the Freys (who basically are the opposite). 

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In any case, though, whatever is going to happen between these two will likely be a romance, so it won't matter what they can offer each other politically. It might even turn out that they meet each other incognito or something along those lines - say, somewhere beyond the Wall or in the middle of nowhere.

I agree, but what I'm saying is that there will be no push for a marriage itself that would push the two together as well. Now of course, the two getting to know each other and getting along at that has a wide range of possible ways to happen, but what I'm saying is that it won't happen out of political gain. And again, I strongly disagree the North would have no political weight, as it has close ties to the Vale and the Riverlands. Not sure how much political weight Theon could offer the North, but he definitely seems like he won't turn his back on the 'Starks' again.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Daenerys would not bother with the North in winter unless she wanted to help them with the Others.

I agree, but she will. Especially in case the North itself will reach out for help to everyone, which is the bare minimum they will do.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And if we are realistic then at this point everything she would need to 'conquer' the North would be to fly across their castles with her dragon.

Dragons win fights, battles and sieges, not the hearts of people.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

A Targaryen restoration could mean justice for the Red Wedding and vengeance against the Freys and Boltons and Lannisters and help in the fight against the Others.

Maybe. Maybe not. If Daenerys is keen to forget the Starks, why wouldnt she accept others? And she'll likely have a Lannister of her own. The support of the Reach and Dorne could be more uncertain than that of the Westernlands. Especially if the Lannisters left are Tyrion and the remaining branch not from Tywin's line. After all, Jaime is a Kingsguard, and doesn't seem to be changing his mind for anything.

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And we should also not discount the possibility that Jon will be in the south when Daenerys shows up. If he were to learn the truth about his parentage sooner than expected he might be motivated to personally travel to KL to meet with his half-brother, King Aegon VI. Even if not, there are reasons why he might travel down south in attempt to convince people to take the threat of the Others more seriously. He could want to meet with Sansa in the Vale, for instance.

Maybe. 

[James West]

On 6/8/2022 at 3:40 AM, Rosetta Stone said:

A second dance is not guaranteed to be war.  Dance also means courtship, marriage, and negotiation.  It does not usually mean a duel. 

Jon has already carried out his purpose.  He made decisions which destroyed the order of the night's watch.  His role when he makes his return will be darker.  He will skinchange and lead an army of wights against the North. 

That he created disorder and weakened the Nightswatch, yes.  Jon totally destroyed the watch.  But the collateral damage coming from Jon is not over.  He loves Arya and he could even destroy a kingdom just to find her.  Jon will gladly open the gates of the wall for the Others if he thinks that will help Arya. 

[James West]

Jon is not a dragon.  He is the direwolf for now and an Ice Wight when he comes back from death. 

[Lord Varys]

47 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

I disagree. The North didn't muster as many troops as it could to begin with when Robb went on his campaign, cause it was harvesting time. Other than that, I know very well that there are ongoing conflicts in the North, but you also have to consider that it'll be settled very early on, with presumably a "Stark victory" or something.

I'd not necessarily count on an early victory, but even if we get that - it seems that thousands will die at the village/Winterfell since both sides are in this game to annihilate the other side. Roose cannot afford to be merciful nor is there any indication that the clansmen just talk about wanting to bathe in Bolton blood.

But the biggest issue there is that they are starving already in many places in the North - that will cripple their ability to muster and march troops through the North to another a battlefield which is very far away. They are no longer able to assemble an army and march down south - and they might not even be able to muster a large enough army to repel an invasion from the south or from the sea.

47 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

If you take into account that actual word that the Others are coming spreads, people will flee the North like flies, with people being displaced. If an army was to gather at the Wall, with the backup of any southern authorities, it would likely be enough to stop the Others there. We need actual human stupidity and carelessness for the Wall to fall, and my bet is that it will. But with people forced to leave their homes anyway, we can count on many more arms to be at hand (yknow). These people will have a reason to fight unless they leave the continent for good. I may remember not so well, but the North is among the most prepared kingdoms for the Winter, just not the Others.

I'm expecting that once the Boltons are dealt with Stannis and Jon/whoever else is there is going to assemble whatever soldiers they have left at the Wall. We won't see any refugees fleeing south (with the possible exception of some wildlings) as long as the Wall still stands. That in itself is going to cripple their ability to involve themselves in other conflicts.

47 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

And the north could especially offer much if it creates a facion with the Vale and the Riverlands, which it likely will, through the legacy of Robb and the blood between the Vale and Rickon, either via Sansa's marriage to Harry or via Sweetrobin. In the case of the Riverlands, Daenerys would have to choose between the Tullys (with strong ties to the North), or the Freys (who basically are the opposite).

I don't think that will be a working power bloc. And whatever is going to happen in the Riverlands will be resolved long before Dany even shows up. The Twins and House Frey might already be dead history at that point. I expect the majority of the Riverlords to join with Aegon, since the Targaryen loyalists were historically strong in that place, and they both have a common enemy in the Lannisters.

And the Vale is also more likely to look south rather than North. Sansa is in no rush claiming Winterfell for herself. She might first be interested to see Cersei and the Tyrells pay for what they did to her.

47 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

I agree, but what I'm saying is that there will be no push for a marriage itself that would push the two together as well. Now of course, the two getting to know each other and getting along at that has a wide range of possible ways to happen, but what I'm saying is that it won't happen out of political gain. And again, I strongly disagree the North would have no political weight, as it has close ties to the Vale and the Riverlands. Not sure how much political weight Theon could offer the North, but he definitely seems like he won't turn his back on the 'Starks' again.

Chances that Daenerys would ever need a political marriage to solidify her rule over the North just isn't that likely at this state. I mean, let's ignore Dany and assume Aegon becomes King on the Iron Throne in record time, gaining the allegiance of all the important houses in the south. Would anyone in the North actually insist to continue the independence thing in light of the threat the Others pose? I don't think so.

47 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Dragons win fights, battles and sieges, not the hearts of people.

Well, they should also win the hearts of people when their lands are ravaged by civil war and anarchy and an army of ice demons is knocking at their door...

[GMantis]

On 6/12/2022 at 3:43 AM, Darth Sidious said:

Justice! Jon is not going to bring justice. Janos Slynt didn’t get any justice from Jon. Jon misused and abused his authority to murder his family’s enemy.

Disobeying orders in wartime has been traditionally punished by death. Especially when the one disobeying is high ranking and is deliberately trying to undermine the authority of his superior officer. Janos Slynt got exactly what he deserved for his attempted mutiny.

On 6/12/2022 at 3:43 AM, Darth Sidious said:

He chose not to punish a deserter who came back to attack the Wall because he needed him for an unlawful and morally reprehensible mission. 

How is it morally reprehensible to save a young girl from a monster like Ramsay?