US Politics: Elections, Defections, Insurrections, Oh My!

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

Something is afoot... I think he's flirting with running in 2024.

I dunno, maybe.  If he really wants a progressive to gain traction, or even win, then he should probably put his support behind a considerably younger candidate.  Like the (about to be) 73-year-old Elizabeth Warren.

[Mindwalker]

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

I dunno, maybe.  If he really wants a progressive to gain traction, or even win, then he should probably put his support behind a considerably younger candidate.  Like the (about to be) 73-year-old Elizabeth Warren.

That spring chicken?!

It's kind of sad that really young (or middle-aged) progressive figure comes to mind, at least for me.

 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Mindwalker said:

It's kind of sad that there's no really young (or middle-aged) progressive figure coming to mind, at least for me.

The age gap between Warren and AOC is strikingly vast, yeah.  There's Jayapal, I guess.  Other than that...

[ThinkerX]

54 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

Apparently, Bernie was also on Meet the Press (ugh) recently. Something is afoot... I think he's flirting with running in 2024.

AOC would be the better candidate.

[ThinkerX]

Well...it is looking distinctly possible that Sarah Palin will be Alaska's next representative to DC. (she might make this MTG character appear sane by comparison)

Right now, the D's chances don't look good. Best hope at this point is Begich, who is a relatively sane R.

Alaska Primary Election Results 2022: Live Updates : NPR

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

The age gap between Warren and AOC is strikingly vast, yeah.  There's Jayapal, I guess.  Other than that...

I still think Democrats would benefit significantly if Porter jumped the line into leadership.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

33 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

AOC would be the better candidate.

Bernie or AOC in 2024 primarying Biden and then somehow winning would be a disaster, whatever you think of the two.

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I still think Democrats would benefit significantly if Porter jumped the line into leadership.

I mean there's plenty of lower level House members (or even Senate) I could have mentioned between Warren and AOC.  Or even candidates that aren't current officeholders - Julian Castro comes to mind.  My point was none of them really stands out.  Including Porter.

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Bernie or AOC in 2024 primarying Biden and then somehow winning would be a disaster, whatever you think of the two.

Bernie isn't going to primary Biden.  Neither is AOC for that matter.  The former could be preparing for if Biden doesn't run though, that's plausible.  Let's face it, if I were a Democrat with presidential ambitions I'd be preparing right now for the possibility Biden isn't going to run too.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

I mean there's plenty of lower level House members (or even Senate) I could have mentioned between Warren and AOC.  Or even candidates that aren't current officeholders - Julian Castro comes to mind.  My point was none of them really stands out.  Including Porter.

I'm just projecting what they could be and I think Porter would do an excellent compared to, sorry to be blunt, these dinosaurs that deserve their flowers, but also need to clear the deck and enjoy life after public office. Castro would be great too. AOC's time will come, there's no need to rush it. 

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Bernie isn't going to primary Biden.  Neither is AOC for that matter.  The former could be preparing for if Biden doesn't run though, that's plausible.  Let's face it, if I were a Democrat with presidential ambitions I'd be preparing right now for the possibility Biden isn't going to run too.

Totally fair, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if someone did challenge him if he does run for reelection. 

And if he doesn't, I don't think Democrats' chances improve.

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

I'm just projecting what they could be and I think Porter would do an excellent compared to, sorry to be blunt, these dinosaurs that deserve their flowers, but also need to clear the deck and enjoy life after public office.

I know you really like Porter.  I like Porter too.  Just saying she's not the only one on my short list when I start thinking about "between Warren and AOC."

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Totally fair, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if someone did challenge him if he does run for reelection. 

And if he doesn't, I don't think Democrats' chances improve.

Sure, on both accounts.  Biden might get a significant primary challenger - if he runs again - but it ain't gonna be Bernie.  Nor AOC. 

As for Dems' chances if Biden does or doesn't run, you're kind of fundamentally wrong there.  If he decides not to run, it's almost certainly because he thinks he'll lose.  Which means someone else will almost certainly have a better chance of winning.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

I know you really like Porter.  I like Porter too.  Just saying she's not the only one on my short list when I start thinking about "between Warren and AOC."

There are a lot of options, and that's why I think they need to get more time to shine. Porter is one of the strongest candidates because she's great at simplifying and explaining things in easily digestible ways for non-political junkies and elevating her would greatly benefit the party. Her impressive CV speaks for itself.

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Sure, on both accounts.  Biden might get a significant primary challenger - if he runs again - but it ain't gonna be Bernie.  Nor AOC. 

AOC no, but you have to leave Bernie that 1% chance, though unlikely even at those odds.

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As for Dems' chances if Biden does or doesn't run, you're kind of fundamentally wrong there.  If he decides not to run, it's almost certainly because he thinks he'll lose.  Which means someone else will almost certainly have a better chance of winning.

No. You're connecting two things that are not related. Biden deciding not to run because he thinks he'll lose does not at all signify that a replacement will have a better chance of winning. The former just doesn't want to lose. The replacement could, and maybe would, do far worse especially if the expected recession is going to be lasting and Democrats are blamed for it. 
 

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You're connecting two things that are not related. Biden deciding not to run because he thinks he'll lose does not at all signify that a replacement will have a better chance of winning.

LOL.  The two are absolutely and inextricably related.  If Biden had an approval in the 50s, or hell even the high 40s, then nobody would be thinking about challenging him, and the general assumption would be he's gonna run again.  But now that even his 538 average is under 40, handwringing Dems are def gonna handwring.  That doesn't mean those running to replace him will necessarily do better than he would have, of course, but it means that candidate will think they do.  And likely the entire party as well.  Really don't see the party begging Biden to run in 2024 but him refusing, which is ultimately what you're suggesting.

[VigoTheCarpathian]

 

14 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Opinions
 

Pre-emotive intervention: it’s quality posts like these + DMC having a few that that provide the rest of us with 3 pages of y’all talking past one another.  

Edit: ah, shit, it’s starting.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

LOL.  The two are absolutely and inextricably related.  If Biden had an approval in the 50s, or hell even the high 40s, then nobody would be thinking about challenging him, and the general assumption would be he's gonna run again.  But now that even his 538 average is under 40, handwringing Dems are def gonna handwring.  That doesn't mean those running to replace him will necessarily do better than he would have, of course, but it means that candidate will think they do.  And likely the entire party as well.  Really don't see the party begging Biden to run in 2024 but him refusing, which is ultimately what you're suggesting.

Which doesn't matter if the political landscape is probably going to be hot garbage. Not sure what we're arguing here. They might think they'll do better, but I wouldn't gamble on that actually happening. If I'm wrong I owe you a Coke. Or a fat blunt. Your choice.

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, VigoTheCarpathian said:

Edit: ah, shit, it’s starting.

Well, good news is I'm flying to Gainesville in almost exactly five hours, so I don't think think this one will be anywhere near three pages.  OTOH, I just put some red bull in my gin to stay up for the really early flight so right now I'm amped up!

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Which doesn't matter if the political landscape is probably going to be hot garbage. Not sure what we're arguing here. They might think they'll do better, but I wouldn't gamble on that actually happening. If I'm wrong I owe you a Coke. Or fat blunt. Your choice.

Nothing.  We're arguing about nothing.  I suppose the only thing I'll say is there's no fucking way to know what the political environment will be in fall 2024.  The last two Democratic presidents got their asses handed to them in the midterms and both of them pretty much cruised to reelection.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

Nothing.  We're arguing about nothing.  I suppose the only thing I'll say is there's no fucking way to know what the political environment will be in fall 2024.  The last two Democratic presidents got their asses handed to them in the midterms and both of them pretty much cruised to reelection.

I hate cliches, but plan for the worst, hope for okay in this instances, because I really do think it's going to be that bad. I want to be wrong, I really do, but I've seen nothing to suggest things will get better for Democrats over the next few years.

Have fun on your trip. 

[Kalbear]

Inject this schadenfreude into my veins

 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Have fun on your trip.

Thanks it should be fun!  My sister is already there with her baby, who's what..7 months old now (whatever November 2nd is), so I'm really excited.

[maarsen]

Is anyone else seeing the online reports that Lauren Boebert worked as a paid escort at one time and having two abortions during that period? Apparently this is how she met Ted Cruz who then encouraged her to run for Congress.