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US Politics: Elections, Defections, Insurrections, Oh My!


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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

My brother also said he recently heard an interview about a book or a study that he thought was called something like “The Kleptomania Economy”, I can’t find it, maybe some of you are familiar with it. The guy being interviewed said that after the Roe v Wade decision murders in the US dropped by 30%, because people didn’t murder inconvenient girlfriends and spouses and babies. He suggested that if Roe was overturned, Americans should expect about a 50% increase in the murder rate over the next couple of years.

 

As I remember that research, the connection between murder rates and abortion was not explained in that way, but as a factor of there being fewer people in their teens and twenties who'd grown up as unwanted kids in violent households, and murder and all violent crime is much more commonly committed by young adults. So it would be more like 15 years instead of 2 before the murder rate would go up because of denial of abortion. 

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4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Could you tell me more about this scenario?  We can use PMs if you'd prefer.  Because I do feel like the US going full authoritarian feels almost certain, and I would be interested to hear how you think this alternative breakup scenario would play out. 

There's not too much to it really. Authoritarian systems only work with at least passive acceptance by a majority of the country. The opposition in the US is too large, well-funded, and connected to the rest of the world to be trampled. The "minority rule" here has only stayed in place because the majority has stayed within the confines of the current system. But things like a stolen 2025 election or a legitimately elected Republican federal government trying to override major, highly visible blue state laws will change that. I think you'll start seeing the states in the West Coast and New England openly ignoring the federal government. And the feds being in no position to enforce compliance. Firstly because too much of the federal bureaucracy will support the defiers, secondly the military itself would be divided (and I think refuse to get involved unless anyone outright declared independence), and thirdly because across the rest of the states total there'd be another 40ish% of the population also totally opposed and there'd be a strong possibility that many states (like Wisconsin) would be totally ungovernable.

I don't know that all ends. But I don't think it's a strong central government maintaining power at the end of a gun. I think its a pock-marked map of liberal and conservative enclaves and exclaves pretty much all going their own direction. And a major worldwide concern becomes who exactly has control of the nuclear arsenal.

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34 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Like Ty always jokes. “We’re coming for your water!”

As others have pointed out, it’s only a joke for now. In the future there will be many wars over scarce resources, water being the most valuable one,  and the US very well might give Canada a choice, join us under our rule or we’ll liberate your water. The chances of us becoming an authoritarian country are real and after that, all bets are off.

23 minutes ago, Fez said:

I suspect the US cracks up and dissolves before it becomes a direct threat to Canada. 

My hot take is California becomes an independent country within the next 20 years.

Let’s face it, the federal government is not sustainable anymore, and things will only get worse as half the population lives in just a few states.

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Manchin, Collins, and Murkowski's present vote are responsible for getting Kavanaugh confirmed.  They all voted for Gorsuch too, as did Joe Donnelly and Heidi Hietkamp - only to lose to Republicans the next year anyway.  Manchin and Collins voted against ACB.  Murkowski voted against cloture but for her confirmation, but her vote wasn't pivotal anyway (she was confirmed 52-48).

Anyway, you could argue that triumvirate are more responsible for this court than anyone else.  A victory for centrism and bipartisanship.

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32 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I'd say we're coming for your democracy.  Just like Russia doesn't want a successful Ukraine making them look bad, when the US goes full authoritarian, they aren't going to want Canada to continue to have nice things like civil rights and meaningful democracy.  The CIA has plenty of practice with this sort of thing. 

Yeah, but CIA et ilk bullshit takes a while. Democracy in Canada could likewise get eventually fucked, but right now, at this very moment, we could also nail it down and make it near impossible for socons to legislate away. Maybe I don't know enough about it. I can't hardly describe how this hit me, not American.

It's just brutal. The cruelest rollback. And it's made me, once again, legit fear for my daughters. I am nothing, but I do not fucking like this.

At All.

I had to talk to my lesbian daughter about this, this morning. On the way to school. Thank christ or god or what the fuck ever her 12 year old sister is camping, because christo and fundamentalist fascism are coming for everything. Again. As always, almost fucking everywhere. 

It needs to be stopped. We don't got a big window here, going forward. Challenges unlike anything humanity has experienced are coming, and this last grasp at absolute power to shape how this all goes down needs to be stopped.       

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3 hours ago, Fez said:

 

The liberals of course dissent very strongly.

Huzzah! 

9 minutes ago, Fez said:

There's not too much to it really. Authoritarian systems only work with at least passive acceptance by a majority of the country. The opposition in the US is too large, well-funded, and connected to the rest of the world to be trampled. The "minority rule" here has only stayed in place because the majority has stayed within the confines of the current system. But things like a stolen 2025 election or a legitimately elected Republican federal government trying to override major, highly visible blue state laws will change that. I think you'll start seeing the states in the West Coast and New England openly ignoring the federal government. And the feds being in no position to enforce compliance. Firstly because too much of the federal bureaucracy will support the defiers, secondly the military itself would be divided (and I think refuse to get involved unless anyone outright declared independence), and thirdly because across the rest of the states total there'd be another 40ish% of the population also totally opposed and there'd be a strong possibility that many states (like Wisconsin) would be totally ungovernable.

I don't know that all ends. But I don't think it's a strong central government maintaining power at the end of a gun. I think its a pock-marked map of liberal and conservative enclaves and exclaves pretty much all going their own direction. And a major worldwide concern becomes who exactly has control of the nuclear arsenal.

This is a fine dream, but I think you're wrong man. The agencies that have actual power (backed by the end of that gun) will force compliance on the blue states. And nobody is gonna stop them. You don't think that Donald Trump will order -insert agency here- to straight up seize the governor's mansion in California over his new abortion bill? Really Diane? Really Diane? 2025 ain't that far away. 

And what's Cali gonna do? Read some poems at them?

 

We are about to get swept out to sea at the end of this year, and then it's really gonna get nasty because Joe is gonna be the last thing standing in front of a R senate and an R house.

Abandon hope, it's gonna weigh you down in the tyrannies to come.

 

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

A strong Democratic majority in the US Senate?

With the SC as it is? What the fuck. Really?

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10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

My hot take is California becomes an independent country within the next 20 years.

Maybe, the State of Jefferson movement for a 51st state composed of rural Northern California and southern Oregon, very right wing, could cause lots of trouble.

The State of Jefferson

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2 minutes ago, JGP said:

With the SC as it is? What the fuck. Really?

Your question what it would take to impeach SC justices.

That way I could at least see Thomas getting removed. But since the Democrats are never gonna have the votes necessary to convict, that is rather academic. 

But a real majority in the senate could do a few other things to limit this courts awfulness (stack the court, statehood to DC  and Puerto Rico (long term for when Thomas finally kicks the bucket)). 

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I don't believe the US will become a full authoritarian state without a full blown civil war. And a new civil war has a strong chance of drawing in NATO members, Canada especially and likely the UK, because they won't want a government they don't wish to recognize in possession of the nuclear arsenal. Thus WWIII. But that's a nightmare scenario I hope never comes close to happening.

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7 minutes ago, Babblebauble said:

Huzzah! 

This is a fine dream, but I think you're wrong man. The agencies that have actual power (backed by the end of that gun) will force compliance on the blue states. And nobody is gonna stop them. You don't think that Donald Trump will order -insert agency here- to straight up seize the governor's mansion in California over his new abortion bill? Really Diane? Really Diane? 2025 ain't that far away. 

And what's Cali gonna do? Read some poems at them?

 

We are about to get swept out to sea at the end of this year, and then it's really gonna get nasty because Joe is gonna be the last thing standing in front of a R senate and an R house.

Abandon hope, it's gonna weigh you down in the tyrannies to come.

 

I'm sure he might order it, but I don't think anything will come from it. The military is not a monolithic entity, and polling suggests Biden actually won the active military vote in 2020. I think they sit tight in "a political dispute", tanks won't be rolling into Sacramento. And any agencies with deadly force that can get rustled up, like the border patrol or federal prison guards or whoever, is not going to want to get into a shootout without the California national guard.

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10 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Your question what it would take to impeach SC justices.

That way I could at least see Thomas getting removed. But since the Democrats are never gonna have the votes necessary to convict, that is rather academic. 

But a real majority in the senate could do a few other things to limit this courts awfulness (stack the court, statehood to DC  and Puerto Rico (long term for when Thomas finally kicks the bucket)). 

That's fucking bleak. The Democrats need to get off their asses and get out of their own way. Court challenges from every sector everywhere need to spike. But where does that all end? Looking dark out there without quashing the filibuster. Democrats need to lead with their chests.   

edit: Maybe they should ask advice from McConnell

Edited by JGP
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11 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm sure he might order it, but I don't think anything will come from it. The military is not a monolithic entity, and polling suggests Biden actually won the active military vote in 2020. I think they sit tight in "a political dispute", tanks won't be rolling into Sacramento. And any agencies with deadly force that can get rustled up, like the border patrol or federal prison guards or whoever, is not going to want to get into a shootout without the California national guard.

Mr. Fez, the difference between democrats and Amerifascists is that democrats don't shoot back. If you think the California National Guard would do anything but dissent strongly as the FBI vans park on the governor's lawn you're living in a fantasy.

 

ETA: soldiers follow orders. They'll do as they're told by their legitimately elected (he ain't gonna have to cheat this time) chain of command.

Edited by Babblebauble
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9 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm sure he might order it, but I don't think anything will come from it. The military is not a monolithic entity, and polling suggests Biden actually won the active military vote in 2020. I think they sit tight in "a political dispute", tanks won't be rolling into Sacramento. And any agencies with deadly force that can get rustled up, like the border patrol or federal prison guards or whoever, is not going to want to get into a shootout without the California national guard.

Yeah, but I suspect that a lot of military opinions also turned sour after the sloppy Afghanistan withdrawal. 

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35 minutes ago, Fez said:

There's not too much to it really. Authoritarian systems only work with at least passive acceptance by a majority of the country. The opposition in the US is too large, well-funded, and connected to the rest of the world to be trampled. The "minority rule" here has only stayed in place because the majority has stayed within the confines of the current system. But things like a stolen 2025 election or a legitimately elected Republican federal government trying to override major, highly visible blue state laws will change that. I think you'll start seeing the states in the West Coast and New England openly ignoring the federal government. And the feds being in no position to enforce compliance. Firstly because too much of the federal bureaucracy will support the defiers, secondly the military itself would be divided (and I think refuse to get involved unless anyone outright declared independence), and thirdly because across the rest of the states total there'd be another 40ish% of the population also totally opposed and there'd be a strong possibility that many states (like Wisconsin) would be totally ungovernable.

I don't know that all ends. But I don't think it's a strong central government maintaining power at the end of a gun. I think its a pock-marked map of liberal and conservative enclaves and exclaves pretty much all going their own direction. And a major worldwide concern becomes who exactly has control of the nuclear arsenal.

You seriously overrate how many people care if women's rights are trampled, and you seriously underrate the hatred towards women in the US. 

And mostly, I think you're ignoring how entirely unwanting most are to challenge anything while things are going well for them - and for the most part US citizens are doing well. 

11 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

I don't believe the US will become a full authoritarian state without a full blown civil war. And a new civil war has a strong chance of drawing in NATO members, Canada especially and likely the UK, because they won't want a government they don't wish to recognize in possession of the nuclear arsenal. Thus WWIII. But that's a nightmare scenario I hope never comes close to happening.

It's very easy to become an authoritarian state while offering most people the luxuries that they're accustomed to. That's the real horrible secret - that authoritarian states are largely easy to push in, and very hard to push out, and people just don't care as long as the authoritarian state isn't too horrible or too stupid. 

 

6 minutes ago, JGP said:

That's fucking bleak. The Democrats need to get off their asses and get out of their own way. Court challenges from every sector everywhere need to spike. But where does that all end? Looking dark out there without quashing the filibuster. Democrats need to lead with their chests.   

edit: Maybe they should ask advice from McConnell

There is very little legislative or other election-based behaviors can do at this point. 

Because of the electoral college Republicans will have major advantages in all elections. Because of the filibuster they will have the ability to block laws. And because of SCOTUS they will have the ability to block any laws (including, amusingly to me, the new senate gun law that just is passing) that might threaten them. 

Voting harder or making harder choices is no longer the option to actually fix anything. All it does is block the most significant excesses. 

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1 minute ago, KalVsWade said:

Voting harder or making harder choices is no longer the option to actually fix anything. All it does is block the most significant excesses. 

All of what you said, Kal, but especially this. People got to move. The cynic in me wants to say never, but the time is now.  

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5 minutes ago, Babblebauble said:

Mr. Fez, the difference between democrats and Amerifascists is that democrats don't shoot back. If you think the California National Guard would do anything but dissent strongly as the FBI vans park on the governor's lawn you're living in a fantasy.

 

ETA: soldiers follow orders. They'll do as they're told by their legitimately elected (he ain't gonna have to cheat this time) chain of command.

Countries crack up all the time. What I'm suggesting will happen to the US is no different from any number of collapses in history. And leftists shoot back regularly. It hasn't happened in the US so far because life's been pretty good overall. But if you don't think that can change, your blinders are on far too tight.

 

3 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

Yeah, but I suspect that a lot of military opinions also turned sour after the sloppy Afghanistan withdrawal. 

That's certainly possible. But just because they've turned against Biden doesn't mean they'd be pro-Trump (or anyone else) either. Around 30% of enlisted troops are minorities, so they'd presumably not be in favor of a white-christian authoritarian government. And the officer corps itself has been extremely centrist for a long time now.

1 minute ago, KalVsWade said:

You seriously overrate how many people care if women's rights are trampled, and you seriously underrate the hatred towards women in the US. 

And mostly, I think you're ignoring how entirely unwanting most are to challenge anything while things are going well for them - and for the most part US citizens are doing well. 

It's very easy to become an authoritarian state while offering most people the luxuries that they're accustomed to. That's the real horrible secret - that authoritarian states are largely easy to push in, and very hard to push out, and people just don't care as long as the authoritarian state isn't too horrible or too stupid. 

And you seriously underrate how much things are changing. People had been doing fine, but that's changing very quickly. Up until now, most of the terrible stuff was easy to ignore or miss; buried in procedure or regulation or only affecting small numbers of people. This SCOTUS decision is the first massive "in your face" action by the right-wing, that no one can ignore. And if there are more, I think you'll fin that a lot of people will suddenly realize that they aren't doing well anymore.

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Fez, I appreciate you man. I do. 

But even that modest projection of people being able to examine their circumstances and identify accurately some of the causes is just hopelessly naive. As long as there's an other to blame you don't HAVE to look around yourself critically. That's the entire point of the other. And we, my friend, we're the other. If people get guns and march it ain't gonna be against the Rs

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3 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Not gonna say that second amendment enthusiast wanting to visit Kavanaugh had the right idea, but that's like the only other venue to change the SCOTUS composition.

If that were to happen J6 would look like normal political discourse.  OK, bad analogy, but how could it not start a shooting war?

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