International Events IX: I feel like a mushroom

[Which Tyler]

Kept in the dark, with a diet of bullshit...

 

 

French Election news: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/12/emmanuel-macrons-coalition-level-with-new-leftwing-group-in-french-elections

 

 

ETA: Oh, and as for the end of the last thread - by "milkmen" I definitely meant "milkmen (and women)" not courier services or supermarket delivery drivers. And yes, we do still have milkmen here, though the electric floats seem to have gone now - though I'm sure they'll return soon enough.

[SeanF]

2 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Kept in the dark, with a diet of bullshit...

 

 

French Election news: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/12/emmanuel-macrons-coalition-level-with-new-leftwing-group-in-french-elections

 

 

ETA: Oh, and as for the end of the last thread - by "milkmen" I definitely meant "milkmen (and women)" not courier services or supermarket delivery drivers. And yes, we do still have milkmen here, though the electric floats seem to have gone now - though I'm sure they'll return soon enough.

Macron’s coalition will pick up a lot of support from right wing voters in round 2, but probably not enough to get a majority.  

RN seem clearly the main party of the Right, now.

[Rippounet]

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

RN seem clearly the main party of the Right, now.

The biggest party on the right is still (surprisingly) Macron's.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

8 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

The biggest party on the right is still (surprisingly) Macron's.

Depends on the perspective. Economically? Yes. Culturally/Socially? I wouldn't place Macron on the right in the current culture war (on social issues if you will).

But you do know your French politics better than I do.

[Rippounet]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Depends on the perspective. Economically? Yes. Culturally/Socially? I wouldn't place Macron on the right in the current culture war (on social issues if you will).

It's not that simple, and there are a handful of things that may not have been well covered on the international scene.

- Macron & co tightened rules on immigration and cut budgets to help foreigners.
If you merely glance at the numbers, you might get the feeling that Macron's government is in favor of immigration (the numbers are slightly on the rise). But when you know a bit more you realize that this is because the number of applications has risen. The rules themselves are tighter than ever, and budgets to help migrants have been slashed. Basically, trying to get a visa when you come from a poor country is a bureaucratic nightmare. France is definitely not welcoming.
Oh, and foreign students no longer have "free" tuition, they must now pay thousands of euros per year.
Best I can say is that Macron has been ambiguous, but while he has spoken of tolerance and openness, his government's actions have continued a classic right-wing approach of deterrence, i.e. trying to make it more complicated to immigrate to France.
I guess he hasn't increased expulsions (the number of those seem to be stable or lower), but that's a very low bar to clear imo.

- Macron & co pushed forward a radical vision of French secularism (laïcité), including opposition to the islamic veil (voiced by Macron himself). Several ministers (especially education & higher education+research) attacked de-colonial studies, denouncing "islamo-leftism" in universities. After Paty's beheading, the government wrote the Reinforcing Republican Principles Law, which it claimed sought to combat “religious separatism” (among other things, the legislation increases surveillance of mosques and Muslim associations).
You may have heard that Macron opposed banning the veil and preached tolerance... etc. That's because in the end he was facing Le Pen, who is from the far-right. But his approach during his term has been a classic right-wing discourse of presenting France and himself as being "at war" with Islamism and terrorism. There's been numerous controversies... For instance:
- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/12/macrons-party-bans-muslim-candidate-for-wearing-hijab-in-poster
- https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/emmanuel-macron-france-muslim-islam-girls-b1621006.html
It's kind of funny, because if I google "Macron+Islam" in English, I get Macron's most tolerant declarations. If I google it in French, I get a far more complicated (/balanced) picture. Google "burkini+France" if you want to vomit.
Anyway, from here it's obvious that Macron has pursued a typical right-wing approach when it comes to Islam, which only looks moderate if you compare it to Le Pen and Zemmour.

Here's an extract from a letter he wrote (that's still on the Elysée's website) that beautifully captures the ambiguity of Macron's approach:

Quote

https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2020/11/04/la-france-se-bat-contre-le-separatisme-islamiste-jamais-contre-islam
Visit neighborhoods where three- and four-year-old girls wear the full-face veil, are separated from boys and, from an early age, are set apart from the rest of society, raised in a project of hatred of the values of France. Dialogue with our préfets who are confronted on the ground with hundreds of radicalized individuals who are feared, at any time, that they will take a knife and go and kill French people. This is what France intends to fight against today. Against plans of hatred and death that threaten its children. Never against Islam. Against obscurantism, fanaticism, violent extremism. Never against a religion.

Doesn't sound so bad? Yeah, except I've never seen a 3 year-old girl with a veil. As for the suburbs, what you find there is mainly a culture of despair, for lack of socio-economic opportunity. "Hundreds of radicalized individuals" might seem like a lot... until you remember that France has between 3 and 4 million Muslims.
So it's nice to underline the fact that this is not a fight against Islam, but this kind of discourse still fuels and uses islamophobia for electoral purposes. It's still very much right-wing, because i) it exaggerates the threat and ii) doesn't offer any kind of solution except lofty words.

- Macron's government has made it much harder to demonstrate. The rise of police violence (and general incompetence) has been dramatic, and very well documented (we've recently heard about it because of football). See Amnesty International's 2021 report, or the European Court Human of Rights condemning the French State for its lack of diligence in investigating police violence. BTW, one can now be prosecuted in France for filming policemen in action.
See (for instance): https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/28/europe/france-protests-security-law-intl/index.html

Seen from abroad, that last point is probably under-reported, but it's nonetheless the most important one when you live here. Basically, human rights and civil liberties have been under attack under Macron, and anyone who is not on the right has felt it personally. I mean, I do believe that if you worry about your spouse being clubbed or losing an eye because she's protesting against budget cuts for education or health, then you live in a society that's not that "free" anymore. But YMMV I guess?

And to conclude with the personal: I don't completely buy the separation between economic and cultural/social. Imho that's a grand illusion for right-wing governments to mascarade as "progressive". The reality is that in the past, there were numerous social programs and budgets for poor French neighborhoods ; I myself had access to many such programs as a kid btw. There was local police (more prone to discussion than violence), a small army of social workers, sports & leisure associations for the under-privileged... heck, I even had free summer camp a few times.
Problems (deliquency, drugs, vandalism, radicalism... etc) exploded after all these programs and budgets disappeared.
So, at least as far as France is concerned, I personally don't believe there is a "cultural/social" perspective that is truly separate from the economic one. That's... just another rhetorical trick.
I do wonder why Macron is supposed not to be right-wing. Because he supports women's rights and gay rights? Pretty low bar imo. His take on the environment? Don't make me laugh. His government has been so inefficient they had to fudge the numbers a bit, and a court found the French State guilty of inaction:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/03/court-convicts-french-state-for-failure-to-address-climate-crisis
Wouldn't it be because he's young and has an excellent PR team? Believe me, if you look at what his government does rather than what he says, it's very clear that he's on the right - and in a French context, it's not even the moderate right.
Personal view: Macron is a fucking son of a bitch. But he's so good many don't even see it. I call that neo-liberal propaganda. Let's not forget that media concentration means freedom of the press is also decreasing in France:
https://www.publicmediaalliance.org/france-inquiry-into-media-concentration-begins/
https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199987238.001.0001/acprof-9780199987238-chapter-5
 

[The Anti-Targ]

Onto something completely different. How's inflation in your neck of the woods?

An interesting article in our media about a trick Australian shoppers are using to keep the cost of fresh vegetables down: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/australian-shoppers-resort-to-desperate-supermarket-measure-to-save-money/LUM3MKSELCOJQ7HT755UULQ7FQ/

Quote

Australian customers desperate to save money at the supermarket have reportedly resorted to sneaky measures to bring down the cost of their grocery shopping.

Melbourne woman Jenn Shaw filmed inside a Coles recently, showing an array of broccoli stalks that had been snapped off and dumped on the display table.

She suspected the method had been adopted as a cost-saving strategy for households feeling the pinch of the surging cost of living.

She wrote in text on her video, "$11.90/kg broccoli in Melbourne. Shoppers are leaving stalks on shelves," which she uploaded to TikTok on Monday.

I can certainly relate. The last time I felt aggrieved at the price of vegetables I would rip the stalks of capsicums so I wasn't paying for the weight of those stalks, which unlike broccoli stalks are actually not fit to be eaten. 

Leaving aside the fact that people can, and probably should, eat broccoli stalks, I'm pretty sure the reason why our supermarkets sell capsicum and broccoli, and some other vegetables, by the piece rather than by weight is because of this sort of thing. I might be pissed at the price of broccoli and capsicum, but I won't be ripping stalks off to try to save money and leave the supermarket with waste they need to clean up. Of course when buying by the piece one always tries to find the biggest piece possible to make best value for money, leaving the unfortunates who come along before shelves are re-stocked with having to settle for paying the same amount for smaller pieces. 

It's fairer to sell on weight, but it is annoying to pay for something that is of no use and has no purpose*.

 

*One does pay for the weight of banana skins of course, but those serve a protective/preservation purpose until you get around to eating them, unlike broccoli and capsicum stalks.

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 6/13/2022 at 6:58 AM, Rippounet said:

Macron is supposed not to be right-wing. Because he supports women's rights and gay rights? Pretty low bar imo.

A bar that even far right figures like Le Pen could pass. 
Protecting “Gay rights” and “women’s rights” often do get invoked to justify xenophobia and racism to “moderates” who want to do bigoted things, but don’t want to feel bigoted.

[Werthead]

China has signed a new law allowing for "non-war" use of the military, which is raising alarm bells in Taiwan.

[Zorral]

Long report from Cole Stangler, a journalist based in France who writes about the country’s politics and culture. I've quoted the last part, as this a sub  paywall publication.

Something Extraordinary Is Happening in France

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/16/opinion/france-elections-melenchon-macron.html

Quote

 

.... Amid tight polling and mounting anxiety, Mr. Macron and his allies have sought to tap into fears of this very scenario, reverting to red-baiting. The finance minister has likened Mr. Mélenchon to a “Gallic Chavez” who would “collectivize” the economy and bankrupt France, while a leading lawmaker from Mr. Macron’s party has warned of a “return to the Soviet era.” The chief of France’s top business lobby has said Mr. Mélenchon risks pushing the country “to the brink.”

In fact, the coalition’s actual platform is far from revolutionary. It’s inspired more by the golden days of European social democracy than by the Bolsheviks. The coalition’s two signature economic policy proposals — a hike in the minimum wage to 1,500 euros, or about $1,560, a month and a cap on the prices of essential goods — are modest measures at a time of rapidly rising inflation.

Plans to raise taxes on the superrich and boost investment in schools, hospitals and transport networks contrast with Mr. Macron’s embrace of the private sector, it’s true. Yet these are popular, standard-fare progressive policies in Europe. The alliance’s bold climate proposals — a five-year €200 billion, or nearly $209 billion, green investment plan driven by the principle of “ecological planning” — have led the ecology minister to accuse NUPES of “playing on young people’s fears.” But it’s hard to see the plans as anything other an attempt to tackle the climate crisis head-on. The costs of inaction would be much greater, anyhow.

The scaremongers are right about one thing, perhaps: An empowered left in one of the world’s most influential countries would have ripple effects abroad. It would be a source of inspiration for ideologically similar parties in Europe, which have struggled to contest for power since the heydays of Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain. What’s more, a French government willing to push back forcefully against the European Union’s restrictions on public spending and state intervention in the economy could encourage Brussels to evolve. As Europe struggles with the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine, that could be a significant development.

Yet the election’s consequences will be more immediately visible within French borders. The coalition is calling for the creation of a Sixth Republic that would rein in presidential power and return France to a more standard parliamentary regime — and the first-round results show a big chunk of the electorate agrees. Even if a change of that scope appears unlikely for now, a failure for Mr. Macron to win a clear majority just months after re-election would be more than a personal setback. It would mark a substantial blow to the office of the presidency itself, which was initially designed for the national hero and strongman Charles de Gaulle. The very structure of the Fifth Republic could come under scrutiny.

That may ultimately be one of the most powerful and lasting messages sent by French voters. In a country as complex, large and diverse as theirs, a political system designed to concentrate authority in the hands of a single head of state maybe isn’t the best way of reflecting popular will. And perhaps, after 64 years, it’s time to try something new.

 

 

[Winterfell is Burning]

Presidential systems are stupid- have the same person be the embodiment of the state and the head of the government makes it inevitable for strongman types to appear.

Also, if the president isn't elected with a majority (even more of a risk in multiparty nations), then he either becomes a figurehead or tries to appropriate power from the legislative so he actually do stuff.

[Rippounet]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

Long report from Cole Stangler, a journalist based in France who writes about the country’s politics and culture. I've quoted the last part, as this a sub  paywall publication.

Good article.

I'm not optimistic about sunday though. The numbers aren't good enough (however you look at it, there's always far more voters on the right than the left), the neo-liberal propaganda machine has been in overdrive mode, and Mélenchon is still too unpopular (on a personal level) to mitigate abstention.
Best I can hope for at this point is Macron losing his majority and having to govern with the traditional right. But that's far less of a problem for them than the article says:
 

Quote

If the president’s coalition is unable to capture at least 289 of the National Assembly’s 577 seats, it could be forced to govern with support from rival lawmakers — resulting in a fragile government whose fate would hinge on its ability to compromise.

Fragile? Yes, mayhaps. But Pécresse and Macron basically had (have?) the same program. Which means that even a fragile Macron government would still implement the rest of its devastating neo-liberal program. I'm not even sure the pace of "reform" would slow down.

And if you think I'm exaggerating a bit...

Quote

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/06/09/akun-j09.html

In France, access to medical care is endangered as President Emmanuel Macron’s policies of austerity and mass COVID-19 infection run hospitals into the ground. Emergency wards have shut down periodically, often at night, or there is limited access in a number of hospitals. These include university research hospitals in Amiens, Angers, Bordeaux, Caen, Clermont-Ferrand, Dijon, Grenoble, Lyon, Metz, Nice, Orléans, Reims, Rennes and Strasbourg. There are also critical staff shortages in maternity wards, undermining proper pregnancy checkups and safety during births.

Doctors and nurses are warning that French hospitals are facing a meltdown without a massive injection of resources and personnel.

Whatever you think of the source (World Socialist Web Site), the quote above is accurate as fuck. ERs throughout the country have switched to dealing with "vital cases" only. Basically, if you get hurt at the wrong time and place, there may be no medical professional for you. You may have to wait until morning or be driven hundreds of kms to a functioning ER.
Lyon is France's second largest metropolitan area, and Strasbourg, Bordeaux and Rennes are all among the twelve largest ones. This is affecting millions, and triage mistakes mean people die. Oh, and we happen to be facing an "exceptional" heatwave with temperatures going from 35°C to 42°C, so it's not like people don't need medical care atm.

But will the media point out that the NUPES's program is exactly what is needed to heal our health system ad start actually doing something about climate change? Of course not. Instead they'll patiently underline everything wrong with Mélenchon and his program. Never mind that hundreds of economists have come out to support the program, these are almost never invited on TV.
In a plot twist that surprised no one with a functioning brain, only 7 (yes, seven) candidates from Macron's party have called to vote for the left rather than the far-right when possible, a number so low that even a few of their own have expressed dismay over it.
Yeah, who would have thought that the neo-liberals and the far-right shared quite a few objectives? To paraphrase what radical philosopher Frederic Lordon said a few days ago "capital is perfectly comfortable with the far-right." No shit, Sherlock.

 

[SeanF]

I think NUPE’s problem is there aren’t many additional votes for them to gain.  I expect some RN voters who simply dislike the system will back them, and some LREM and LR voters will back them where they’re facing RN in duels.

But LREM will get the bulk of LR votes in duels with NUPE, and LR will get the bulk of LREM and RN votes in duels with NUPE.

From Macron’s POV, it does not matter if he falls short of a majority, but has MP’s on the right that he can make deals with.

[SeanF]

Belgian media reporting;

Ensemble 218, NUPE 156, RN 89, LR 79.  I find it hard to believe RN would win so many.

[Rippounet]

Le Monde says 224 for Macron, 149 for NUPES, 89 for RN, 78 LR.

Well, at least Macron lost a bit.

89 is indeed a lot for RN, but I kind of expected it.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Sadly, it's 2022 and we are still killing each other over religious insults.

I can't think of a more farcical justification for violently attacking innocent citizens.

"Islamic State says attack on Sikh temple is revenge for Prophet insults"

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/asia/islamic-state-sikh-gurdwara-temple-attack-kabul-afghanistan-intl-hnk/index.html

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Le Monde says 224 for Macron, 149 for NUPES, 89 for RN, 78 LR.

Well, at least Macron lost a bit.

89 is indeed a lot for RN, but I kind of expected it.

Realistically what does this outcome mean? I read a few articles and I'm even more confused than before.

[Rippounet]

7 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Realistically what does this outcome mean? I read a few articles and I'm even more confused than before.

A lot of this is new (including Macron and his party) so no one knows for sure, but it should mean France will function like a regular parliamentary democracy rather than a presidential system.

Anyone from the large parliamentary groups will be able to propose a bill, which will then have to be debated on its merits.
What a nightmare. *gasp*
I think it says a lot about Macron(ism) that they see the regular workings of democracy as something to fear. Of course, having actual debates (parliamentary debates having the potential to 'spillover') about projects can be scary when your ideology is a "zombie idea" (to paraphrase Krugman).

Anyway, wanna read about something heartwarming? Read about Rachel Keke, who won.

[Zorral]

Analysis: What Turkey Wants to Let Finland and Sweden Into NATO
Finnish and Swedish hopes of being accepted as applicants by next week’s NATO summit meeting have been dashed by a Turkish government that says it is in no hurry.

"NATO was so confident that the invitation to both countries would go smoothly that it choreographed a series of events around a vote accepting the applications in May, which the alliance had to cancel when Turkey suddenly objected."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/22/world/europe/finland-sweden-turkey-nato.html

Quote

 

.... On Monday, there was the first meeting in several weeks of Swedish, Finnish and Turkish officials under the auspices of NATO, but the results were minimal. “We don’t see ourselves limited by any timetable,” Mr. Kalin said afterward. “The speed, scope of this process depends on these nations’ manner and speed of meeting our expectations.”

Most of those demands have to do with Sweden and its longstanding sympathy for Kurdish refugees and the Kurdish desire for autonomy, which Turkey regards as a threat to its own sovereignty. While the West condemns the P.K.K., it has relied heavily on a Syrian Kurdish offshoot in the fight against the Islamic State. And Turkish Kurdish leaders long ago abandoned talk of independence to concentrate on autonomy and increased rights for Turkish Kurds.

Mr. Erdogan is facing elections next June, and his popularity is slipping along with the Turkish economy. The Kurdish issue is an important one in Turkey and he is playing on nationalist sentiment now, while suppressing political dissent and independent journalism.

In an interview on Swedish television, a former NATO official, Stephanie Babst, said that Mr. Erdogan’s real agenda is domestic. “Primarily this is a message toward his electoral base at home,” she said. “He has an election ahead of him. The economic situation in Turkey is pretty gruesome and so he wants to demonstrate leadership. He wants to demonstrate that he is a heard leader and so he is, I am afraid to say, using Sweden and Finland in order to get his strategic messages across.”

NATO’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, has been careful publicly to say that every NATO member has the right to express its concerns, that Turkish terrorism concerns are “legitimate” and must be heard and responded to, and that he is confident that Finland and Sweden will become members, even if not by the Madrid summit.

But Mr. Haavisto, while preaching patience and a willingness to allay Turkey’s concerns, also notes that Mr. Erdogan is annoying his allies at a time of war, when the security of Europe is in question.

“I have to say the pressure is mounting among the other E.U. members, or other NATO member states, that they would like to see this process going smoothly or rapidly,” he said. “Speculation that there could be a one-year delay to after the Turkish elections and others would be a big disappointment for many NATO countries as well, let alone for Finland and Sweden.”

There is popular frustration among Finns, but it is aimed less at their leaders than at Turkey, said Charly Salonius-Pasternak of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. ....

 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

Manawatia a Matariki! Happy Maori New Year.

It's a special new year this year because this year it's the first time ever it is a public holiday as well as the first ever Maori cultural public holiday, for New Zealand.

Matariki = Subaru = Pleiades = Freya's hens = Dilyéhé a 9 star cluster that has cultural meaning almost everywhere in the world. In the South Pacific it marks the new year, and more or less coincides with the winter solstice.

Nice to have another long weekend and nice to finally have a national day that honours our pre-colonial indigenous culture.

 

[Zorral]

These observations are important nationally, bringing information that so many people don't have -- it has been heartening to see Juneteenth observations here becoming something that matters nationally now, where, throughout the rest of the 19th and the 20th centuries, Juneteenth was uttterly unknown outside of some Black communities whose families had been enslaved in Texas.  (Quite a few of them moved to NY state, so when young I mistakenly believed that Juneteenth was a New York matter -- I didn't know about the enslavers' messes in TX back at the end of the Waw of Rebellion.)