Heresy 242 Jon Stark

[Matthew.]

3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Quite true, but the point I'm making is that House of the Dragon is based on a book already published, which did not "reveal" this.

It isn't a reveal from one of the published books, but Condal has already acknowledged that the "Song of Ice and Fire" moment of episode 1 was controversial at the premier, and says it came straight from GRRM himself--which GRRM has confirmed.

[Brad Stark]

The Targaryens were the only dragonlords to survive, they knew the Doom was coming, so they left Valyria.  I've always assumed the Doom was similar to Atlantis - a deliberately vague but inevitable catastrophe needed to explain the sudden disappearance of a powerful nation.  GRRM would never give us more details because he'd never have more details himself.

But what if it isn't?  We are told the reasons for the seasons was magical and would be revealed at the end of the series.  Something is off between the balance of ice and fire and we know it will be explained.  Valyrians built on volcanos, conquered with Dragons, and was destroyed by Fire.  The Long Night was further back, but much of the world was destroyed by darkness and cold.  What if both The Long Night and The Doom are related and both related to the seasons being off?

What if Daenys saw both disasters - not just the Doom?  She probably didn't have exact dates, but knew one was a decade or so away and could not be stopped, but the other was centuries into the future.  So they first focus on surviving the Doom, and once that's over, conquer Westeros since that's where the next disaster would start.  If they just wanted to conquer, taking former Valyrian territory in Essos would make far more sense.

Anyone else familiar with this poem and think it might have influenced our series?

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Some say the world will end in fire,

Some say in ice.

From what I’ve tasted of desire

I hold with those who favor fire.

But if it had to perish twice,

I think I know enough of hate

To say that for destruction ice

Is also great

And would suffice.

 

 

[LynnS]

Listening to Joe Magician's podcast here where he says that dragon dreamers consistently have dreams of a gleaming white city (34m 32s):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rncBWCAZfmU

Strangely, Cersei has a dream of building a White Castle:

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A Feast for Crows - Cersei III

"Even if Tyrion were still hiding in the castle, he won't be in the Tower of the Hand. We've reduced it to a shell."

"Would that we could do the same to the rest of this foul castle," said Cersei. "After the war I mean to build a new palace beyond the river." She had dreamed of it the night before last, a magnificent white castle surrounded by woods and gardens, long leagues from the stinks and noise of King's Landing. "This city is a cesspit. For half a groat I would move the court to Lannisport and rule the realm from Casterly Rock."

 

 

[alienarea]

Cynical me concludes the book series does not progress since more than a decade because much more money can be made from inventing a dragon lore beginning somehow leading up to the end of the tv series.

 

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, alienarea said:

Cynical me concludes the book series does not progress since more than a decade because much more money can be made from inventing a dragon lore beginning somehow leading up to the end of the tv series.

 

The premier had 10 million viewers.

https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/house-of-the-dragon-premiere-ratings-viewers-1235343874/

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

1 hour ago, alienarea said:

Cynical me concludes the book series does not progress since more than a decade because much more money can be made from inventing a dragon lore beginning somehow leading up to the end of the tv series.

GRRM took more than five years to publish AFFC, so his progress stalled long before GoT was a thing.

[LynnS]

OH GOD! Now I'm hooked...

 

[Frey family reunion]

12 hours ago, LynnS said:

Yah, this is way too much syrop for me.  But I will go with Jon kills Dany in the end. Just not under the circumstances depicted by D&D.

To continue my sword metaphor.  If Jon is the personification of the Norse sword Gram, then at some point he needs to slay a dragon.  Of course, in the mythology, the dragon that Sigurd slays with Gram is Fafnir, the dragon that was transformed from a dwarf.

[Frey family reunion]

On 8/22/2022 at 4:56 PM, Black Crow said:

I'll cheerfully admit I've not seen House of the Dragon, so can't pronounce on it with any pretence of authority, but...

I'd be wary of the supposed prophecy/insights - and ultimately what the Targaryens supposedly knew of the Starks' Musgrave Ritual.

House of the Dragon, as I understand it, is a mummers' version of a book already published by GRRM, and Fire and Blood does not as I understand contain these supposed revelations.

We know at some point the Targaryens inserted themselves into the prophecies concerning the Long Night.  The only question is when did they develop this belief?

Aemon believes that the Prince that was Promised comes from a descendant of his House.  He also believes that Prince that Was Promised is destined to lead the Battle for the Dawn.  Which is clearly a reference to the coming of the prophesied Long Night.

My personal suspicion is that the Targaryens have adopted a Rhoynish prophecy which came about a thousand years ago when the Rhoynish civilization was destroyed by the Valyrians.  Hence the messiah being a prophesied Prince as opposed to a King or whatever sovereign the Valyrians placed over themselves.  

Thus we don't hear about the Targaryen's interest in the PTWP prophecy until after Daeron takes his Martell bride.  This might explain why Rhaegar ends up believing that his son with his Dornish bride fits the role.

And this Prince that Was Promised prophecy in turn borrows heavily from an even older tale from the East concerning Azor Ahai.  

Finally just like Melisandre shoehorns these ancient tales to fit the Westerosi beliefs about the evil White Walkers and the coming Long Night, I think Aemon and Rhaegar do the same with their prophecies.  

So the only question is how long have the Targaryens taken it upon themselves to believe that they are necessary to usurp the Kings of the First Men in their role of opposing the forces of the Long Night?

 

[Brad Stark]

16 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

We know at some point the Targaryens inserted themselves into the prophecies concerning the Long Night.  The only question is when did they develop this belief?

Somewhat repeating my previous post, but Daenys likely was responsible.  If they knew before her, why not conquer Westeros sooner?  Why conquer Westeros at all if it was after Aegon's time?  Even accepting this timeframe, Aenar, Gaemon or Aegon could have been responsible, but your question was "When".

I don't discount that this was based on Rhoynish or other Essos legends or prophesies.  Unlike the Doom, The Long Night happened before, and a lot of myths related to it are clearly not from the Targaryens.  But I am saying Daenys is when they inserted their family into it and believed they had to conquer Westeros.

I don't see evidence the Targaryens know or care (or ever did) about the Starks and their Musgrave Ritual.  We do have the Pact of Ice and Fire, but it was well over 100 years after the conquest and never fulfilled.  We have no evidence before Rhaegar that any Targaryens treated the Starks any different from any other Westeros nobility.  

We do have evidence Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna Stark because he thought he needed to father another child because of the prophesy, but we have no evidence Lyanna's Stark heritage played any part in the decision - she could simply have been a fertile young girl.  Rhaegar though his son with Elia was TPWWP and his child with Lyanna would be less important.  It is interesting Rhaegar thought he needed a 3rd child (and thus 3 heads of the dragon must be siblings), while Aemon considered himself a candidate to be one of the heads even though he'd be a distant relation to the TPWWP instead of a sibling.

 

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

It is interesting Rhaegar thought he needed a 3rd child (and thus 3 heads of the dragon must be siblings), while Aemon considered himself a candidate to be one of the heads even though he'd be a distant relation to the TPWWP instead of a sibling.

To be precise, we don't really know that Rhaegar thought all three heads of the dragon had to be his children.  It's only an inference at this point.  We only know for certain that Rhaegar believed that his son with Elia was to be one of the three heads of the dragon and his role was to be the prince that was promised.

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

I don't see evidence the Targaryens know or care (or ever did) about the Starks and their Musgrave Ritual.  We do have the Pact of Ice and Fire, but it was well over 100 years after the conquest and never fulfilled.  We have no evidence before Rhaegar that any Targaryens treated the Starks any different from any other Westeros nobility.  

 

I agree.  The pact of Ice and Fire was merely a political alliance as the "Blacks" tried to hurry up and secure alliances against the "Greens".   There is no reason to believe that it had anything to do with a belief about the coming Long Night.

And I think it's notable that Jahaerys and Alysanne took their sweet time before visiting the North.  I think it may have been the last portion of their kingdom that they got around to visiting.  Jahearys delayed his departure even longer to settle some petty foreign political squabbles.  

I think the House of the Dragon's references to a Song of Ice and Fire dating back to Aegon's conquest may be a very recent retcon.  The show is taking plot points from several different eras of Targaryen history and combining them in their fairly limited timeline.  I think the Targaryens interest in conceiving the Prince that Was Promised for the Battle of the Dawn only occurs sometime after the events of the Dance.  

There are two incidents that give me a bit of pause, however.  The first is Aegon's decision to invade on the day of Harrenhal's completion, which seems an interesting coincidence.  The other deals with the tales of the "singers" that Addam Velaryon took counsel with the Green Men on the Isle of Faces during the Dance.  Of course that second tale could be complete nonsense.

 

 

[LynnS]

On 8/23/2022 at 9:41 PM, Frey family reunion said:

To continue my sword metaphor.  If Jon is the personification of the Norse sword Gram, then at some point he needs to slay a dragon.  Of course, in the mythology, the dragon that Sigurd slays with Gram is Fafnir, the dragon that was transformed from a dwarf.

I can see this happening.  Whether this involves Tyrion or not is another question.  I can see Jon and Dany playing out the AA - Nissa Nissa story at some point.

[LynnS]

13 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think the House of the Dragon's references to a Song of Ice and Fire dating back to Aegon's conquest may be a very recent retcon.

t sounds like it.  But if anyone has artistic license to retcon the story, it's the author.  Isn't this the way he works anyway?  I understand if people are reluctant to trust the show runners.  Nobody wants to be disappointed again, so the walls are up.  I'm pretty excited.  I think we have reached a turning point and Martin is controlling the canon; using HoD as a means for introducing the Targaryen POV regarding prophecy leading into Winds of Winter.  I don't think this is a foul on GRRM's part. It's something we wanted but didn't get out of D&D's production.

I didn't know if there would be anything that would interest me all that much.  Now I'm hooked; they just have to reel me in.  

[LynnS]

14 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

And I think it's notable that Jahaerys and Alysanne took their sweet time before visiting the North.

Possibly, he had a policy of non-interference regarding the Starks, since they didn't represent a threat to the crown and could be counted on for an early warning about any threat coming from the North.  I have to assume that both he and Alysanne knew something about. 

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When he was younger, Jaehaerys had been fascinated by the ponderous tomes and Old Valyrian scrolls found in Dragonstone's library.[11] Although I'm not sure how much credit he gave it, being an Adherent of the Faith of the Seven. 

 

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Legacy

There is a plinth of the Old King that stands at the Citadel in Oldtown with the words "He bound the land together, and made of seven kingdoms, one." inscribed on it.^[8]

Jaehaerys's grandson and successor, Viserys I Targaryen, wore Jaehaerys's crown.^[9] In 129 AC, Viserys entertained his grandchildren with a fictional tale^{[N 2]} of Jaehaerys and his dragon defeating a vast host of wildlings, giants, and wargs at the Wall.^[14] When Viserys died that same year, his eldest son, Aegon, ascended the throne instead of Viserys' proclaimed heir, Rhaenyra, which was the start of the war known as the Dance of the Dragons. Ser Steffon Darklyn of the Kingsguard and his retainers defected to Rhaenyra's faction at Dragonstone. With them, they brought the crown Jaehaerys I and Viserys I had worn. Prince Daemon Targaryen, Rhaenyra's husband and uncle, used this crown during Rhaenyra's coronation.^[9]

 

What we might have once called foreshadowing; we now label retconning.  What we really have is context.

[LynnS]

This is pretty good, but I have a hard time hearing these livestreams sometimes, even with the volume maxed out.  Same thing with History of Westeros and others.  I don't have a problem with volume on podcasts.  i don't know if this is specific to youtube.

 

I'll echo the sentiment that I don't want to listen to something from the "experts" that is snarky and dismissive.  That isn't good energy for me, so I quickly turn away.   I don't want to listen to something that just brings me down.  Haven't we had enough of that over the past few years?  I want to feel joyful about something.  

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

What we might have once called foreshadowing; we now label retconning.  What we really have is context.

Retconning was probably a poor choice.  In reality, a lot of this prophecy stuff being passed down in secret from Aegon I  and from heir to heir is for the tv shows only.  I don't think they exist in the book universe at all.  

In fact, the whole premises kind of falls apart upon moderate analysis.  Let's examine Viserys statement to Rhaneyra that the prince that was promised prophecy was a secret passed down from Targaryen heir to heir.

Aegon I' first heir was Aenys.  So yea, Aegon could have told Aenys about it.  The problem is who did Aenys tell?  Aenys named his first born son, Aegon, his heir.  So presumably, according to the show, Aenys would have then taken Aegon aside and told him about the Targaryen secret.  At some point Aegon and his sister-bride go on a tour of Westeros where they are beset by angry smallfolk and have to hole up in a castle in the Westerlands.

Aenys dies during this time.  Maegor has himself crowned.  Aegon remains in hiding for a while, and later emerges and engages in battle with Maegor and is promptly killed.  In the meantime Jaehaerys had been stashed away in the Stormlands and a bunch of lords who have gotten sick and tired of Maegor, decide they have to get rid of Maegor and put Jaehaerys on the throne.

So it begs the question, who told this secret to Jahaerys?

The other problem of course, is that the prince that was promised does not appear to be the big secret in the books that it appears to be in the shows.

A wood's witch dragged out of the Riverlands seems aware of it.  And Melisandre, a red priest from the East also seems to know about the prophecy.  And Aemon has no problems in very publicly asking Melisandre about the identity of the prince that was promised.  Implying, first that this isn't a secret, and second Aemon assumes that Melisandre is aware of the prophecy.

Aemon also laments that a group of people (that he counts himself as a member) who were supposed to be so wise, had assumed from their translation that tptwp had to be a male.  I think Aemon is referring to the Maesters here.

I think we have a lot to go on that the prince that was promised prophecy was not a deeply held secret by the Targaryen family.  At least not in the books.

 

 

[Brad Stark]

20 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

... Aegon's decision to invade on the day of Harrenhal's completion, which seems an interesting coincidence.

I've always thought this was just GRRM's way of show how wasteful the enormous and expensive Harrenhal was, as it was never really used.  Having dragons burn Harren while the hall was under construction isn't as great a story, nor does having Harren enjoying his new hall for a few years before being toasted.

But consider how close it is to the Isle of Faces, and Harren used Wierwood as building material, and the surrounding area, while extremely good farmland, was not enough to support a fully staffed castle.  Assuming the Targaryens saw it in their dreams, maybe Harren was about to do something that would have serious consequences and forced Aegon to invade earlier than he planned.

[Brad Stark]

20 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think the House of the Dragon's references to a Song of Ice and Fire dating back to Aegon's conquest may be a very recent retcon.

I doubt this.  Fire and Blood (and aSoIaF to a lesser extent) spells out how people saw Aegon as an enigma and wondered what his motives were.  It is heavily implied at several points that he was being guided by dreams and prophesies related to the current story, although less specific.  Why GRRM decided to hit people in the face with it when so much of his success is because he's great at subtly hiding things, I don't know.  Maybe HBO wanted to tie to Game of Thrones, but if it were me, I'd want to distance myself from that as much as possible, especially from the resolution to the whitewalkers invading.

[LynnS]

History of Westeros interview with George R.R. Martin just posted: