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Heresy 242 Jon Stark


Black Crow

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Well, I figured out my sound problem, quite by accident.  Apparently, I don't know how a wireless keyboard and mouse functions with a Mac OS.   Being a PC person, I suppose that's understandable.  At least I don't have to sit here anymore, with my nose pressed against the monitor, hoping I'll hear something.

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On 8/24/2022 at 3:57 AM, Frey family reunion said:

We know at some point the Targaryens inserted themselves into the prophecies concerning the Long Night.  The only question is when did they develop this belief?

Didn't Bloodraven say that Targaryens had prophetic dreams long before the Conquest? Maybe it wasn't until the Doom that they actually started believing in them?

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As a note on that scene, as is often the case with the way prophecy is presented, it's not clear how much of what we're being told constitutes the actual content of the dream, and how much is Aegon's (or his descendant's) interpretation of the dream--eg., the ostensible importance of a united realm. 

Accordingly, it's not clear whether the show is implying that Aegon's prophecy ("A Song of Ice and Fire") is the origin point for the Prince that was Promised, or whether tPtwP is an older prophesy that Aegon has assumed would link logically to what he has seen.

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I rather think that we need to take a couple of steps backwards here and look at the overall picture.

First the "revelation" in the new Mummers' play. That play is supposedly based on a book by GRRM which makes no mention of it, but GRRM has now said its true/canon. So why not mention it earlier ? That suggests its something which may be revealed in the upcoming WoW. Question of timing. A couple of years ago when Fire and Blood was first published might have been too early. Still early now, but perhaps he can live with it.

Then there's the Pact of Ice and Fire, and there it gets interesting. We still don't know what its about, or was intended to be about because seemingly it never happened, but...

A pact is an agreement, a binding agreement and seemingly one between equals, which immediately raises questions and requires dialling back in history on both sides of the proposed pact.

On the one hand we have the Targaryens. They are Valyrians and Dragonlords, but perhaps not actually all that they seem. Back in the day and seemingly influenced by prophecy they moved out of Valyria proper and settled in Dragonstone on the very edge of the empire. Thus they escaped the Doom, which is obviously good. They even hung on to some dragons but then something strange happened. A war or series of wars breaks out in Essos as the local population rises up against the rump Valyrian colonial administration. Not at all unexpected, but Aegon Targaryen joins the rebels and pitches in against the Valyrians.

Then he turns his back on Essos as well and goes and conquers Westeros - sort of

Or rather, using his dragons he starts conquering the seven kingdoms by frying any opposition until he gets to the southern border of the North.

History, for what its worth, says that the Stark king surrendered or submitted. Aegon tuned back south and the Stark remained - although he may no longer have called himself the King of Winter.

Why ?

We've discussed the Others extensively [but not yet exhaustively, I hope] on Heresy and there is a strong theory based on what GRRM has said in and out of the books, that the White Walkers are not a different race, but something like the Nazgul and once upon a time at least were attached to the Stark Kings of Winter - remember those "cold northern ghosts" defending Moat Caillan against southern would-be invaders ?

If we are looking for a pact of Ice and Fire then there may be something of an equality here between the Stark Kings of Winter and the Targaryen Dragonlords

But then there's more. We've discussed before, the Starks' version of the Musgrave Ritual, but what if the Targaryens too have their version. They took themselves to Dragonstone  to escape the Doom, but then turned against what was left of the Empire. They used their dragons to conquer [most of] Westeros, but then the dragons died. Supposedly there are rumours that the dragons were somehow killed off by the maesters, but what if it was the Targaryens themselves. What if that too was a part of the Pact of Ice and Fire which both families have forgotten.

Of course if it is, it throws an interesting - and dangerous - light on Danaerys Targaryen hatching three healthy dragons and so perhaps breaking the Pact

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4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

On the one hand we have the Targaryens. They are Valyrians and Dragonlords, but perhaps not actually all that they seem. Back in the day and seemingly influenced by prophecy they moved out of Valyria proper and settled in Dragonstone on the very edge of the empire. Thus they escaped the Doom, which is obviously good. They even hung on to some dragons but then something strange happened. A war or series of wars breaks out in Essos as the local population rises up against the rump Valyrian colonial administration. Not at all unexpected, but Aegon Targaryen joins the rebels and pitches in against the Valyrians.

Possibly related to this, while most discussion of the aforementioned show scene has focused on Aegon's dream(s), during the scene Viserys also says a couple of other interesting things: that the idea that Targaryen's control the dragons is "an illusion," that they're a power men should have never trifled with, and that trifling with that power is what lead to the Doom.

Now, in context, those comments could have been more of a general sentiment than something that is to be taken literally--that he is trying to impress upon his heir the responsibility she is inheriting. However, it might also be hinting at some more specific knowledge regarding the unnaturalness of both the Dragonlords and the dragons themselves.

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23 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Now, in context, those comments could have been more of a general sentiment than something that is to be taken literally--that he is trying to impress upon his heir the responsibility she is inheriting. However, it might also be hinting at some more specific knowledge regarding the unnaturalness of both the Dragonlords and the dragons themselves.

Hence my suggestion of a Targaryen version of the Musgrave Ritual and that the Targaryens themselves were responsible for getting rid of the Dragons... until Danaerys came along

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23 hours ago, Black Crow said:

But then there's more. We've discussed before, the Starks' version of the Musgrave Ritual, but what if the Targaryens too have their version.

It certainly looks that way now.  This is a lot to unpack.  It seems there must always be a Stark in Winterfell and a Targaryen on the throne.  Knowledge handed down from heir to heir, on both sides, but the chain of custody was broken.  Perhaps in Robert's Rebellion.  Dany and Jon seem to be the likely heirs of these respective legacies, and perhaps Bran will be party to knowledge on both sides of ice and fire.  

Dany's vision of Rhaegar in the HoU is interesting for passing knowledge of the song of ice and fire to her without her knowing what it means.  For some reason, Quaithe is party to Dany's experience in the HoU; telling her to remember the House if Undying.  Quaithe seems to know more about this legacy, but couches it in riddles for the moment.  She tells her to remember who she is saying the dragons know.  If the dragons know that Dany is the promised prince; or the one who is chosen, I'm not sure what or how she is supposed to remember, what they want her to remember.

It's been suggested (I think by @sweetsunray) that doors represent portals in time and Joe Magician suggests that what Rhaegar sees in the HoU is a vision of Dany in the future.  That this might represent a ripple in time effect caused by the hatching of dragons or some such powerful magical event.  Targs seem to have dream visions of the future not knowing how far into the future or who or what they are seeing..  

Doors as portals in time makes me wonder about the significance of the red door.  The only time she passes through it is when she transforms into a dragon and returns home to someplace that is home to the dragon.

So what promise did Lyanna extract from Ned concerning Jon?  Why does Ned's Ghost return to Winterfell to tell Bran something more disturbing about Jon than the crow dreams?  Did Ned recieve knowledge of the prophecy from Lyanna as the Stark heir to the pact of ice and fire?

Does this inform us about Ned's fever dream?

Quote

 

A Game of Thrones - Eddard X

"And now it begins," said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.

"No," Ned said with sadness in his voice. "Now it ends." As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming. "Eddard!" she called. A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky, as blue as the eyes of death.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, LynnS said:

So what promise did Lyanna extract from Ned concerning Jon?  Why does Ned's Ghost return to Winterfell to tell Bran something more disturbing about Jon than the crow dreams?  Did Ned receive knowledge of the prophecy from Lyanna as the Stark heir to the pact of ice and fire?

Lord Eddard didn't receive any lost knowledge from Lyanna. I think that he knew it already.  Nor do I think that his "ghost" told of something "more disturbing" than the Crow dreams. He tried to tell Bran something important about Jon, but Bran forgot it when he woke up. Most likely that Jon had a part/role to play and that's likely where the dragons come in.

There has long been a casual assumption that the dragons are coincidentally appearing just as winter is coming, but what if it isn't. Ice and Fire were in balance, but somebody gave Danaerys her dragon eggs and set in train the events which saw them hatching, so in response to that things are moving up north

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10 hours ago, LynnS said:

She tells her to remember who she is saying the dragons know.  If the dragons know that Dany is the promised prince; or the one who is chosen, I'm not sure what or how she is supposed to remember, what they want her to remember.

Remember that mantra that the shades kept repeating in the House of the Undying:

Quote

mother of dragons ... child of three

mother of dragons ... child of storm

mother of dragons ... daughter of death

mother of dragons ... slayer of lies

mother of dragons ... bride of fire

And the last vision that Dany had before Drogon came to her rescue:

Quote

Ten thousand slaves lifted bloodstained hands as she 
raced by on her silver, riding like the wind. “Mother!” they cried. 
Mother, mother!” They were reaching for her, touching her, tugging 
at her cloak, the hem of her skirt, her foot, her leg, her breast. They wanted her, needed her, the fire, the life, and Dany gasped and opened her arms to give herself to them …

She's given tons of titles in the House of the Undying, but there is one that keeps repeating.  Mother of Dragons.  And remember where Quaithe wants her to go, Asshai.  Asshai where there are thousands of unhatched dragon eggs.

So when Quaithe tells Dany to remember who she is, I think Quaithe is urging Dany to embrace her most important role.  Which I don't think is being a Queen in Westeros, or even a Prince that was promised.  I think Quaithe wants her to embrace her role as Mother of dragons.  By going to Asshai and helping hatch thousands of dragon eggs.

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And going back a bit. Arya goes wandering around the Red Keep and while hiding in amongst the dragon skulls overhears Varys and Illyrio discussing an upcoming war which might be upset by trouble at court - and then Illyrio gives Danaerys the dragon eggs.

Were the two of them speaking of the war for the Dawn ?

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2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

And going back a bit. Arya goes wandering around the Red Keep and while hiding in amongst the dragon skulls overhears Varys and Illyrio discussing an upcoming war which might be upset by trouble at court - and then Illyrio gives Danaerys the dragon eggs.

Were the two of them speaking of the war for the Dawn ?

I would not like this. 

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Put it another way.

The Targaryens used their dragons to conquer Westeros.

The Targaryens lost their dragons and lost Westeros

Was Danaerys given the dragon eggs to return the Targaryens to Westeros?

Or was she given the eggs to return the dragons?

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Illyrio "gifts" two main things to Dany, the dragon eggs and Jorah Mormont.

Illyrio tells Tyrion that he never really expected Dany to survive her trip into the Dothraki Sea.  Which makes his gift of the dragon eggs even more unusual.  

Another unusual aspect of the events in AGOT, is that on more than one occassion Jorah tries to convince Dany to leave the Dothrakis and that they travel to Asshai together.  

My takeaway is that Jorah wasn't primarily with Dany to protect her.  I think he was primarily there to keep an eye on the dragon eggs.  There is an even an occassion where he stops Viserys from taking the eggs.

I think somehow, Illyrio got the notion that Dany could facilitate the hatching of the dragons, and that it was going to require her to spend time with the dragon eggs.  Perhaps her pregnancy was even a necessary part of the occasion.

I think Jorah's purpose was at some point to get the Eggs to the blood mages in Asshai to finish the blood magic ritual necessary to finally hatch the dragons.

In Fire & Blood, we learn that Elissa Farmen steals three dragon eggs from Dragonstone and gives them to the Sealord of Braavos to pay for the ship that was supposed to take her past the Sunset Sea.  The Sealord later tells Jaehaerys that the three eggs had turned to stone in their possession, so he didn't need to worry about the "chickens" hatching.

I think those might be the eggs that Illyrio gives to Dany.  My guess is that Illyrio may be an agent for Braavo, Arya's observation that Illyrio walked like a water dancer might be a clue.  And Braavos is looking for a way to hatch the eggs that have been in its possession for the last couple of centuries. (Which might also account for the Faceless Man's interest in infliltrating the Citadel, to steal their knowledge of dragons).

A good question is why did Illyrio think that Dany could facilitate their hatching?  We do learn that at Dany's wedding shower there was a Red Priest the size of Illyrio.  I wonder if that could be Moqorro, and I wonder if he had a vision of Dany's role as the mother of dragons?

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1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

Put it another way.

The Targaryens used their dragons to conquer Westeros.

The Targaryens lost their dragons and lost Westeros

Was Danaerys given the dragon eggs to return the Targaryens to Westeros?

Or was she given the eggs to return the dragons?

Yea suspect it goes back to the fact that humans are pawns or at best ignorant accomplices in some primordial feud. As has been noted here before, we have to ask ourselves who is the driver in a skin changer bond  or dragon-bond. The non-human may have a lot more influence then is recognized. Wargs seem to be more of a marriage but what about dragons and other forms of ski changing. How much other comes back into the human. From the examples we have quite a bit. Quite simply who is skin-changing who? I suspect it’s very muddy and Danny’s upcoming embrace of fire and blood is probably partially related to this. Maybe we could entertain that Balerion ruled Westeros through his chosen human line. I do think all the taboos, Haggon’s Abominations, stem from experience with the he consequences of absorbing too much of the other or vice versa. Dragon blood wolf blood ect. It’s all letting the other drive too much. Things like eating humans or mating with others while sharing the other’s skin exacerbate and accelerate this and leave the human demonic or less empathetic and connected to human kind. Hence the merciless hunting and killing. Perhaps the Bastard of Bolton has a large dose. The ritualized hunt, rape and skinning seems to combine this element and some forgotten but still intuitive/ingrained ritual of sacrifice. The worst of the beast with the worst of the human. 

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"There must always be a Stark in Winterfell" - I've seen that on this board many times, usually assuming it has something prophetic or at least magical.  I've never assumed it this way reading, I don't think any of the Starks or other book characters have, and I don't see any evidence for it.

Suppose a castle has a strong front door, but is often attacked, infiltrated or sabotaged from enemies scaling the west wall.  A General declares there must always be an officer in the west tower.  Not because believes a prophecy that an attack will come when an officer is not there, that some magic spell will go awry without officer blood in the tower, or even that he distrusts men who are not officers.  He simply knows it is likely to be a problem in the future, takes responsibility and prioritizes resources accordingly.

Similarly, I believe Winterfell was the site of 1 or more major battles in the past, won by the Starks.  The Starks of Old expected future battles there, felt responsible for the North or the all of Westeros, and therefore declared that one of their family must always be there so one of them is when the next battle arrives.  This makes even more sense if the Starks are responsible for the Others, or at least felt that they were.

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7 hours ago, Black Crow said:

And going back a bit. Arya goes wandering around the Red Keep and while hiding in amongst the dragon skulls overhears Varys and Illyrio discussing an upcoming war which might be upset by trouble at court - and then Illyrio gives Danaerys the dragon eggs.

Were the two of them speaking of the war for the Dawn ?

Illyrio had already given Dany her dragon eggs, when Arya overhears their conversation.  The crux of the matter, was that whatever plot Illyrio and Varys had conspired, Illyrio needed more time to put in effect.  Varys is getting very impatient about Drogo's inaction towards Westeros.  The principle problem for Varys seems to be the war that seems about to spark between the Lannisters and the Starks.  He very much wants Drogo to make his move before that happens.

The immediate outcome of their conversation appears to be Varys informing the Small Council that Dany was with child and agreeing that they needed to have her and the unborn child killed.

My guess is that Varys thinks perhaps an assassination attempt on Dany might be the impetus to finally get Drogo to invade Westeros.

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