Heresy 242 Jon Stark

[Brad Stark]

Neither version had an ending, except the show runners and actors want to move on without another season, so we got 'almost everybody dies' as quickly as we could. 

I don't think GRRM intends to end the story in 1 book.  I think he's lying to himself about doing it in 2, but really needs 5 if he lives that long.

Winds should have far more content than the show gave us on events after Dance, so even with only half the rest of the story, we should see big differences. 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Brad Stark

[Black Crow]

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I’m probably reading too much into this, but in his “Winter Garden” SSM, does GRRM accidentally reveal that WOW will be his last book?

He seems to be implying that once WOW is finished the story is finished and fans will start to debate whether his story or HBO’s story was better.

It does rather sound that way and if so he's probably being realistic. While I've no desire or expectation that he will pop his clogs any time soon, another year for WoW and then 10 or 12 more after that to wrap up  ADoS does seem unrealistic. After all having written this he deserves to sir back and enjoy the acclamation

[Black Crow]

 

Passing comment in NotABlog which may be significant...

Speaking of a re-issue of Fire and Blood

GRRM "(And yes, this is the first of two volumes.   The second will follow… through not till the WINDS have blown)."

 

[LynnS]

Recent interview:

http://gameofowns.com/488#

[Frey family reunion]

On 7/12/2022 at 3:58 PM, Black Crow said:

It does rather sound that way and if so he's probably being realistic. While I've no desire or expectation that he will pop his clogs any time soon, another year for WoW and then 10 or 12 more after that to wrap up  ADoS does seem unrealistic. After all having written this he deserves to sir back and enjoy the acclamation

In the Winds of Winter Forum someone indicated that on a podcast he’s indicated that he has written chapters for ADOS as a rebuttal to my suggestion that WOW will be his last book.  Of course that seems to beg the question as to why he would be writing chapters for ADOS if he hasn’t finished WOW.  I still think his plan is to finish the story before sending out WOW.  It just may be that the story needs to be divided into two books.  

I think that there is still an assumption that he’s going to bring all of his storylines together for the end of the series.  And I agree if he’s planning on doing that it would probably take longer than two books to finish the story.

I just have a feeling that’s not the direction he’s taking.  If you think about it, the show had two apocalyptic scenarios in the last season.  The “Long” Night in Winterfell and Dany’s burning of King’s Landing.  The show however, made the Long Night happen before the burning of King’s Landing.  Presumably so they could include Dany and Jon in both storylines.

I don’t think that’s how the books will end.  I think these two apocalypses are probably going to occur somewhat simultaneously.  Jon’s story will stay up North while Dany’s story will probably culminate in King’s Landing.  Both scenarios contributing to death by ice and fire that GRRM has repeatedly hinted.

Now perhaps both events will have some common link, but I think the series ends shortly after these two events.  And the title A Dream of Spring seems to suggest that the series may end during a Long Night but with some glimmer of hope that whoever survives these events can one day resurface and try to restart a civilization.

[Black Crow]

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

In the Winds of Winter Forum someone indicated that on a podcast he’s indicated that he has written chapters for ADOS as a rebuttal to my suggestion that WOW will be his last book.  Of course that seems to beg the question as to why he would be writing chapters for ADOS if he hasn’t finished WOW.  I still think his plan is to finish the story before sending out WOW.  It just may be that the story needs to be divided into two books.  

I think that there is still an assumption that he’s going to bring all of his storylines together for the end of the series.  And I agree if he’s planning on doing that it would probably take longer than two books to finish the story.

 

It rather depends on how he's viewing the end of the story, or rather how he's getting to it  He reaffirmed in that recent NotABlog post that he's got a good idea of where he's going, but the detail can be wayward.

He works pretty solidly on the basis of POVs - working on several chapters at a time before wandering off to catch up with someone else. This may in turn require revision and rewriting of the original POV, but it may well [legitimately] mean that a particular POV may well have been written all the way up to and into WoW while other POVs are still battling through against the Winds. That would both help to account for the slowness of Winds while offering hope that Dream will be quicker

And yes, as I recall the late Ned Stark and his brother Benjen did have a conversation in which a project [rebuilding some holdfasts] was admitted to be a dream of spring, ie something for the future rather than the present 

[Black Crow]

Absolutely essential reading 

[Brad Stark]

Assuming he does finish WoW, with his style, there will be lots of material leftover - both written and unwritten.  With the possible exception of AGoT, I don't think he's had a firm idea where each book would end.  He just writes until he has too much material to keep writing and all the POVs are at good stopping places.  He went over with AFoC/aDoD, as there was no good stopping point in the middle and he had to split by POV.  I believe he initially intended even more story to go into these first two books, but ended as early as he possibly could to avoid splitting the story in 3 books instead of in 2.  Look how fast he started releasing WoW samples after aDoD came out - my bet is much of that was written before aDoD was published.

So he may have 10 Tyrion chapters written before he decides that 7 belong in WoW and 3 in aDoS.   That doesn't mean those 3 are frozen and won't change later.

Of course he will die at some point.  If that's before WoW, I think we will get a mostly finished WoW novel with just the editor making changes, and have to live with our own imagination and the show for how everything ends.  If that's after WoW but before aDoS, we might not get more, but might be lucky and get his unpublished work and notes, but nowhere near another novel.  This is by far the most likely, as each book has taken longer than the previous.  Optimistically he spends 12 years on each WoW and aDoS, which puts him around 85, which is just at the end of what Social Security's Actuarial tables give him.  But more likely we are looking at 15 and 20 making him 96.  Of course, I'd like him around well past 100, but making it to 94, means you've outlived over 99% of people your age.

 

[EggBlue]

37 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

Assuming he does finish WoW, with his style, there will be lots of material leftover - both written and unwritten.  With the possible exception of AGoT, I don't think he's had a firm idea where each book would end.  He just writes until he has too much material to keep writing and all the POVs are at good stopping places.  He went over with AFoC/aDoD, as there was no good stopping point in the middle and he had to split by POV.  I believe he initially intended even more story to go into these first two books, but ended as early as he possibly could to avoid splitting the story in 3 books instead of in 2.  Look how fast he started releasing WoW samples after aDoD came out - my bet is much of that was written before aDoD was published.

So he may have 10 Tyrion chapters written before he decides that 7 belong in WoW and 3 in aDoS.   That doesn't mean those 3 are frozen and won't change later.

Of course he will die at some point.  If that's before WoW, I think we will get a mostly finished WoW novel with just the editor making changes, and have to live with our own imagination and the show for how everything ends.  If that's after WoW but before aDoS, we might not get more, but might be lucky and get his unpublished work and notes, but nowhere near another novel.  This is by far the most likely, as each book has taken longer than the previous.  Optimistically he spends 12 years on each WoW and aDoS, which puts him around 85, which is just at the end of what Social Security's Actuarial tables give him.  But more likely we are looking at 15 and 20 making him 96.  Of course, I'd like him around well past 100, but making it to 94, means you've outlived over 99% of people your age.

 

well.. prince Philip  died at around 100 . let's assume George is just as healthy  and lives till he is 100 yrs old! which would also give him at least 4 sweet years of retirement ... good for both us and him:) 

[Black Crow]

All true, but I'd rather we kept to the real point and discussed where Jon Snow is going, since he clearly isn't going to be sitting on the Iron Throne with a made-up Targaryen name and riding dragons to victory as Azor Ahai 

[LynnS]

16 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

All true, but I'd rather we kept to the real point and discussed where Jon Snow is going, since he clearly isn't going to be sitting on the Iron Throne with a made-up Targaryen name and riding dragons to victory as Azor Ahai 

Starting where he ended off:  he has to be sheltered in Ghost for now.  That means Bran may contact him since that has already been set-up with Tree-Bran at the Skirling Pass.  How long he remains warged in Ghost depends on the actions and motivations of Mel and perhaps opposition from Val, Borroq, Morna and Tormun to whatever she has planned, if anything.  And of course whatever Bran has planned for him.

The question is how or in what form with he be resurrected.  I don't think it will be fire that does the trick at this stage but perhaps later down the road.  

I'm not sure what kind of revenant he will make.  Colder, wolfish, more ruthless but not bereft of his humanity.  He has an appointment in the crypts of Winterfell.

[TheLastWolf]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

He has an appointment in the crypts of Winterfell.

Confused unga bunga

Long time since the last reread for me ig

[Black Crow]

On 7/17/2022 at 11:53 AM, LynnS said:

Starting where he ended off:  he has to be sheltered in Ghost for now.  That means Bran may contact him since that has already been set-up with Tree-Bran at the Skirling Pass.  How long he remains warged in Ghost depends on the actions and motivations of Mel and perhaps opposition from Val, Borroq, Morna and Tormun to whatever she has planned, if anything.  And of course whatever Bran has planned for him.

The question is how or in what form with he be resurrected.  I don't think it will be fire that does the trick at this stage but perhaps later down the road.  

I'm not sure what kind of revenant he will make.  Colder, wolfish, more ruthless but not bereft of his humanity.  He has an appointment in the crypts of Winterfell.

 

if we're keeping this simple and involving Ghost, then the obvious outcome is for him to return as a White Walker

We saw in the Varamyr prologue to ADwD how Varamyr's body died, cutting his consciousness [or if you prefer Soul] loose to fly on the wind

Jon, from what we've seen, having been is going through the same process, except that his soul is likely to go into Ghost rather than fly loose until captured by one of his own wolves

Being a very powerful warg and paired with a direwolf rather than an ordinary beast of the field [something Varamyr never managed], not to mention of course being a major character, Jon is going to return, but as his original human body is a bit hacked about, the obvious course will be to form a new body from ice crystals.

Thus Jon comes back and reveals what's on the other side

Edited July 18, 2022 by Black Crow

[Brad Stark]

On 7/17/2022 at 6:27 AM, Black Crow said:

All true, but I'd rather we kept to the real point and discussed where Jon Snow is going, since he clearly isn't going to be sitting on the Iron Throne with a made-up Targaryen name and riding dragons to victory as Azor Ahai 

aGoT gives us the prophesy of "The Stallion that Mounts the World".  Dany's son Rhaego was going to be a great leader of the Dothraki to conquer many nations.  Mirri Maz Duur intervenes causing his death before he's born, completely changing history.  I thought this was included to foreshadow how prophesy works in asoiaf, specifically Jon as Azor Ahai riding dragons to victory.  

[Black Crow]

24 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

aGoT gives us the prophesy of "The Stallion that Mounts the World".  Dany's son Rhaego was going to be a great leader of the Dothraki to conquer many nations.  Mirri Maz Duur intervenes causing his death before he's born, completely changing history.  I thought this was included to foreshadow how prophesy works in asoiaf, specifically Jon as Azor Ahai riding dragons to victory.  

Perhaps its more sinister. As soon as a potential Hero is identified, somebody out there performs the public service of knocking him [or her] off their perch before they can start waving the damn sword about

[LongRider]

Quote

Mel tells Jon:  "I am seeing skulls. And you. I see your face every time I look into the flames. The danger that I warned you of grows very close now."

Mel sees two things in the above visions: skulls, and Jon.  I'm thinking the CoF cave with all the bones and skulls.  

Quote

She also says this about Patchface: Melisandre's face darkened. "That creature is dangerous. Many a time I have glimpsed him in my flames. Sometimes there are skulls about him, and his lips are red with blood."  

A reference to BR and CoF cave filled with skulls, and red lips = WW paste? 

Seems like Mel is seeing the CoF cave, why would Patchface be associated with them?  Has he been warged by BR, even before going to the Wall.  Will he have a roll in saving Jon?

[Matthew.]

21 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

aGoT gives us the prophesy of "The Stallion that Mounts the World".  Dany's son Rhaego was going to be a great leader of the Dothraki to conquer many nations.  Mirri Maz Duur intervenes causing his death before he's born, completely changing history.  I thought this was included to foreshadow how prophesy works in asoiaf, specifically Jon as Azor Ahai riding dragons to victory.  

I always took the Stallion that Mounts the World as an example of someone trying to foil a prophesy, only to end up accidentally fulfilling it--kind of like how Cersei's Maggy the Frog paranoia is causing her to take actions that will contribute to her own downfall.

In the case of the Stallion, her ritual is meant to pay Rhaego's life to 'heal' Drogo, but also inadvertently heals/resurrects the stone eggs; in essence, the 'Stallion' still lives in Drogon, and Dany and Drogon are primed to be at the front of a unified khalasar. 

[Black Crow]

20 hours ago, LongRider said:

Seems like Mel is seeing the CoF cave, why would Patchface be associated with them?  Has he been warged by BR, even before going to the Wall.  Will he have a roll in saving Jon?

I don't know whether we need to regard Patchface as a significant individual, but at the same time he looks as he might be another example of a dead man walking on the dark side - say another Coldhands/Russian

[Brad Stark]

Patchface was on a ship that wrecked and killed everyone.   Did he cause it, either by accident or on purpose?

Is he the same person?  He was clever and nimble and now seems the opposite.   He might fake being stupid, but faking clumsy is harder and less useful. 

He knows things he should not, such as the red wedding.   Where does he get this information?  Does he understand it?

[Brad Stark]

We probably have not seen Coldhands alive, but he seems to be mostly the same person he was before.   He is coherent, logical and a skilled fighter.   Beric is mostly coherent but changed, Stoneheart is far more different, but patchface even more so.  Why?