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UK Politics: Johnson in a Pinch(er)


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Sunak was a busted flush a while back, but seems to have crept back into contention recently, maybe due to the pool of potential Tory leaders being about two inches deep. Truss's fortunes, which seemed to be riding high a few months back, also seem to have dipped.

So yup, I expect that Sunak and Javid are either planning a joint run in some fashion or are eyeing up another, less tainted candidate. Anyone from the current Johnson cabinet is going to have a hard time running without being tainted themselves by recent events, which is why someone like Hunt might be fancying their chances.

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Either Sunak or Javid would be a continuing disaster for the country. There's no Tory with a serious chance of winning that would be any significant improvement in policy terms and precious few who haven't made misjudgements that in any serious party would have ended their political career.

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2 minutes ago, mormont said:

Either Sunak or Javid would be a continuing disaster for the country. There's no Tory with a serious chance of winning that would be any significant improvement in policy terms and precious few who haven't made misjudgements that in any serious party would have ended their political career.

Yup. It makes you wonder if a new leader would be stupid enough to try to call a snap election because they're also going to get hammered on that.

Liz Truss has unequivocally said she's backing Johnson, which I'm sure will come as a great relief.

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8 minutes ago, dog-days said:

Sunak and Javid obviously coordinated their resignations - does this mean they've got someone lined up, or they're going to back each other as PM (Sunak) and  Chancellor (Javid)? 

Sunak's letter sounds as if he does still think he might have a chance at the top job. 

Peston reckons they weren’t coordinated but he’s a muppet so who knows.

Sunak was the last bastion of any semblance of competence in the cabinet , his letter really spells out that he really doesn’t agree with Boris on a personal or policy level

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Pay attention to the wording of Sunak's letter.

He's saying he didn't want to give us even the paltry amount of help with the cost of living that we got. He doesn't think the country can afford it, or more accurately the country can't afford that and tax cuts too and he has made his choice. That's what to expect from Sunak as PM. Let them eat cake.

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Just now, mormont said:

Pay attention to the wording of Sunak's letter.

He's saying he didn't want to give us even the paltry amount of help with the cost of living that we got. He doesn't think the country can afford it, or more accurately the country can't afford that and tax cuts too and he has made his choice. That's what to expect from Sunak as PM. Let them eat cake.

He is probably right 

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2 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

I for one welcome the next chancellor of the United Kingdom, Nadine Dorries.

I place the blackest curse of hell upon my great-grandmother Mrs O' Toole. One generation closer, and I could apply for Irish citizenship. 

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Heseltine on Johnson on the BBC: "He's easy to get on with if you can live with the complete absence of integrity."

ETA: Some reports that Raab is about to announce his support for Johnson, likely triggering further panic in BoJo's camp.

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5 minutes ago, dog-days said:

I place the blackest curse of hell upon my great-grandmother Mrs O' Toole. One generation closer, and I could apply for Irish citizenship. 

Blame the generations in between, who felt it unnecessary.

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The problem for anyone inclined to continue supporting Johnson is that you just know, there will be another scandal or pratfall that you have to go out and defend.  So, why not just end the agony now?

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1 minute ago, SeanF said:

The problem for anyone inclined to continue supporting Johnson is that you just know, there will be another scandal or pratfall that you have to go out and defend.  So, why not just end the agony now?

Oh, that's easy.

None of this lot will get close to a cabinet position, and all the bribes and sinecures that go with it, ever again.

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Thought experiment:

What are the chances that BJ calls an early election?
Too soon to replace him beforehand, IF he wins, he'll be safe; if he loses, he'll take out some of his rats with him, which might salve his ego a little. "If I can't have it, no-one (on this side) can!" would seem to appeal to a narcissist who can't be bothered with actually governing.

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Andrew Bridgen not holding back on the BBC.

According to him, the party at large now expects him to resign. If he doesn't, the 1922 committee already has enough backing to elect a new committee to change the rules and then call a second voice of no-confidence, which Johnson will now lose and possibly by a huge amount.

8 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Thought experiment:

What are the chances that BJ calls an early election?
Too soon to replace him beforehand, IF he wins, he'll be safe; if he loses, he'll take out some of his rats with him, which might salve his ego a little. "If I can't have it, no-one (on this side) can!" would seem to appeal to a narcissist who can't be bothered with actually governing.

Calling an election when you are seven points behind in the polls with the current mood in the country would be suicide. Under normal circumstances the race would tighten up and flip over, but that seems implausible at the moment.

Who's going to resign next is an interesting one. Gove probably wants to, but didn't want to be the first to wield the knife. He has to be considering the possibility. Zahawi is holding his tongue and Shapps is being unusually quiet.

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Did I miss something that happened in the weeks since the last vote of no confidence?  It seems very strange that both Sunak and Javid supported Johnson on the vote, but now suddenly need to resign in disgust.  Why didn't they just throw their weight behind ousting Johnson in June, when that almost assuredly would have been enough to sink him? 

Were they hoping/expecting some outswelling of support for him after the vote?  Because that seems...fanciful. 

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2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Did I miss something that happened in the weeks since the last vote of no confidence?  It seems very strange that both Sunak and Javid supported Johnson on the vote, but now suddenly need to resign in disgust.  Why didn't they just throw their weight behind ousting Johnson in June, when that almost assuredly would have been enough to sink him? 

Were they hoping/expecting some outswelling of support for him after the vote?  Because that seems...fanciful. 

I think it was a civil servant saying he'd seen Johnson being briefed on the Pincher scandal before he gave Pincher a job, and then Johnson flat-out denied it. That's the Prime Minister of the country outright lying (again).

And I suspect there's also a weight of power to it: cabinet ministers may have even told Johnson during the vote that they had his support but one more big scandal and they were done, and this was it.

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