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UK Politics: Johnson in a Pinch(er)


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Ed Argar has resigned as a minister at the Department for Health and Social Care. That puts us on 45 resignations total (46 including Gove's sacking, I believe).

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Just now, Werthead said:

Ed Argar has resigned as a minister at the Department for Health and Social Care. That puts us on 45 resignations total (46 including Gove's sacking, I believe).

If Grant Shapps and all his aliases resign, that would be about 49

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Now the Attorney General is calling for Johnson to go.

Also sounds like she's challenging Johnson to fire her because being without an attorney would be chaos.

 

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Question: is there anyone who can actually command a majority in parliament right now? I know the Conservatives have a more comfortable majority than they did before the 2019 election, so they can afford some defectors if necessary. But are the divisions that the party was facing back in 2019 gone, or were they just papered over by Boris Johnson managing to lead them to a decent win in 2019?

Might Johnson be hoping he can hold on by demonstrating that there isn't an alternative Conservative PM available and that the party would get it's clock cleaned if there was an election right now; so their only hope of retaining a Conservative government is by keeping him?

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1 minute ago, Fez said:

Question: is there anyone who can actually command a majority in parliament right now? I know the Conservatives have a more comfortable majority than they did before the 2019 election, so they can afford some defectors if necessary. But are the divisions that the party was facing back in 2019 gone, or were they just papered over by Boris Johnson managing to lead them to a decent win in 2019?

Might Johnson be hoping he can hold on by demonstrating that there isn't an alternative Conservative PM available and that the party would get it's clock cleaned if there was an election right now; so their only hope of retaining a Conservative government is by keeping him?

The Conservative Party holds a still significant majority of 75. The other parties can't do jack against that combined. They'd need 76 Tories to defect to them (permanently or to support a particular vote).

This whole chaotic shitstorm began back in 2015 because Cameron wanted to eliminate the Europe divisions within the party that had dragged it down repeatedly since the 1980s. That has not gone well so far.

I think that is Johnson's argument. Nobody is buying it. With him as PM in 2024 they will get wiped out anyway, a new PM might have two years to turn things around with the electorate.

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1 minute ago, Werthead said:

The Conservative Party holds a still significant majority of 75. The other parties can't do jack against that combined. They'd need 76 Tories to defect to them (permanently or to support a particular vote).

38, not 76.

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1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Apologies… my question wasn’t about time but any official or legal constraints on Parliament holding a vote of no confidence on the government immediately?

Not to my knowledge. It'd be easier to do it before Parliament enters recess on 21 July, but even during recess Parliament can be recalled if the situation is urgent.

Just now, Hereward said:

38, not 76.

Brain fail.

How many Conservative MPs would pull the trigger in that case is questionable even given this chaos. Under the 2011 legislation I believe they could do that, elect a new leader who could then form a new government and win a second confidence vote, but I'm not sure if that's still the case after the repeal.

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42 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Driving home to Newcastle for 4 hours, and missed probably the best 4 hours of the UK politics thread ever. 

We can only imagine what tomorrow might bring.

40 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Now the Attorney General is calling for Johnson to go.

Also sounds like she's challenging Johnson to fire her because being without an attorney would be chaos.

It doesn't appear Boris is too worried by chaos at the moment.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_Kingdom_government_crisis?fbclid=IwAR1Yi1dB3AMPpYAIrYQJC7FgIC-zobDSR1C6TTiYCVu7onQ4_VVj0PfmUv8

 

46 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Driving home to Newcastle for 4 hours, and missed probably the best 4 hours of the UK politics thread ever. 

Working nights and having to sleep during the juicy bits is not fun either.  although the catch up is fun.

 

So what are the odds that this ends in a general election (either cos Boris calls for one, or a no confidence in the government vote)   Verses they manage to remove him and get a viable replacement?    I guess I should add the 3rd option  Boris declares himself dictator and has no need for a government,  [s]activates order 66 [/s] Asks Putin to help and we become a Russian vassal state?

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