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Could Renly have stayed neutral?


DominusNovus

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It has been a long time since I've been active on here (a delay between new material will do that), but I've been musing on this idea lately. I've been thinking of one of the classic 'what ifs' of ASOIAF (as I remember, some people here really dislike 'what if' discussions, so my apologies to them): what if Renly and Stannis had gotten along, or Renly agreed to Stannis' terms at Storm's End, or anything along those lines. Discussions of that topic tend to really revolve around what the Tyrells would do if they couldn't get Margaery wed to a direct claimant to the Iron Throne, whether or not Loras' affection for Renly would overcome Mace's ambitions for his daughter, and what Olenna thought was the best path forward. To me, the most compelling argument is that the Tyrells would have done their best to stay neutral, and, if Renly doesn't consummate the marriage with Margaery, have it annulled so they can wait for a better offer.

It strikes me that Renly, himself, could have done that strategy just fine. Maybe he marries Margaery, or maybe he still tries to play matchmaker for her. Either way, he and the Tyrells can keep the Stormlands and Reach out of the war for the time being, and wait until someone gives them a good enough offer. There's siding with Stannis, Tywin, or Cat's suggestion of convening a council to resolve the claims. Whatever the case may be, Renly could have played the exact same game as the Tyrells, either together or separately (my gut says together would make more sense). Renly and the Tyrells can play the honorable card of saying that they can't be convinced of either side's legitimacy just yet, and can't in good faith risk fighting for the less legitimate side. Its a paper shield, of course, but it does mean that they look far less hypocritical when they finally do pick a side.

This would have one immediate wrinkle of strengthening Stannis's position, because Robb would be far more likely to declare for Stannis. However, both Stannis and Tywin would be accutely aware of this giant threat to the south that could be on their enemy's side in an instant. I could see Stannis being the bolder of the two, simply because he doesn't really have much in the way of mainland territory to defend, and he can link up with Robb's forces or threaten King's Landing. However, give Tywin and Tyrion enough time to prepare their position, and I don't want to underestimate what they could pull off.

Of course, all of these options leave out that Renly could just declare himself king afterward. The easiest path is if Stannis happens to die, in which case it falls on poor Renly to avenge both his brothers' deaths. Or maybe both Stannis and Tywin wear each other down and Renly can just revert to the shameless 'I have the bigger army' opportunist he naturally was.

So, aside from being mildly out of character - but not entirely so, he was willing to be a power behind the throne if Robert hadn't died - is there anything about this scenario that doesn't just work out better for Renly's position? And what concessions do you think Renly and the Tyrells could have gotten beyond what Stannis offered at Storm's End or Tywin offered through Littlefinger?

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Tywin could get away with playing neutral because Robert had just gone though a civil war and badly needed peace and support.  Lord Walder could get away with playing neutral because Lord Tully is a patient man. Stannis and Joffrey are a different kettle of fish entirely. Either of them would have Renly's head on a spike asap after victory, and who could blame them?

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Not really, he is not only one of the important lords of the realm he is also in the direct line of succession, either second for people who believe what we know or third for the people who think Cersei's brood is of Robert. Im staying neutral in a dispute of close family would be a disaster move, whoever wins is going to hate him for not doing anything to help them, and see him as a threat du to is claim so not a good position for Renly. On top of that he would most likely be seen as a coward and/or a untrustworthy man for edging is bets wich would isolate him, wich would be a big blow since is power of attraction is Renly's greatest weapon.

So no he would not be realistically be able to stay neutral because that would be the worst choice he could make. Is only real options where to support Stannis, declare for himself or like it often happened in our own world, rebel for the regency not the throne, with that option he could potentially ally with the North since they dont know what to do once Ned is executed. Destroy the Lannister regime and maybe making sure a accident arrives to Joffrey and then becoming regent for Tommen could content almost everyone, exept Stannis but with out is ex machina he would be dealt with rather fast, the Starks would likely go back home once vengeace for Ned would be done, leaving Renly as heir and regent for a young Tommen.

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1 hour ago, Springwatch said:

Tywin could get away with playing neutral because Robert had just gone though a civil war and badly needed peace and support.  Lord Walder could get away with playing neutral because Lord Tully is a patient man. Stannis and Joffrey are a different kettle of fish entirely. Either of them would have Renly's head on a spike asap after victory, and who could blame them?

Agreed, except the part about Hoster being patient.  Hoster is one of the evil men in the kingdom.  He burned the Goodbrooks for doing what they should have all done.  Stayed loyal to their king.  Hoster was a nasty piece of work. 

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King Joff included Renly in the round of summons to come and pay homage. It's widely accepted (I'd say both in-world and by readers) that to obey the summons would have been dumb and would probably have gotten him imprisoned if not worse.

 

So if wasn't going to pay fealty to Joff then he was going to be attainted, and lost neutrality by default.

 

I think at that point he had a few options: 

1) Take himself off into exile - it would have lost him his land and titles, but he would not have had to take a side for our against Joffrey.

2) Sit in his castle without responding to Joffrey's summons or calling an army. But Storms End is not on an island and could have been besieged by Lannister forces, so Renly would have been risking defeat by Lannisters even if he had tried to stay 'neutral' in this manner.

 

3) Summon an army of this liegemen and friends to help protect him. Which is what Renly did! 

 

I no longer believe Renly summoned his banners with the intent to become King. I think he did it to protect himself / to overthrow Cersei as Joff's regent. His conversation with Cat overlooking his army makes he think that he only got it into his head that he was worthy to be king when he saw the size of the army that was already obeying his orders.

 

I don't think Stannis factored into Renly's thinking because Renly had no idea that Joff wasn't Robert's trueborn son when he (Renly) crowned himself. Maybe if Stannis had sent the word out earlier then Renly would have backed his brother or held out for a Great Council.

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As others have said I just don't think Renly could have stayed neutral, at least not for very long - he is one of the nobles required to come to King's Landing and swear fealty or be declared a traitor to the Lannister regime, so even if he sits in the Stormlands and does nothing he can't really be neutral. And he doesn't have an heir, so if he dies the Stormlands would likely go to Joffrey or Tommen, which makes his death desirable for the Lannisters. I believe Cersei had been planning to kill him for some time for a number of reasons, possibly including this.

Letting him live is also risky for the Lannister regime. He could be used as a figurehead for anti-Lannister factions to place on the throne. He also doesn't like the Lannisters, and with Cersei and Joffrey the feeling is mutual. Like with Robert's bastards, his appearance could be used to undermine the legitimacy of Joffrey and co. 

Finally, the Stormlands do not possess the advantages that could let the Reach and Dorne stay neutral. The Stormlands have a smaller army than the Reach and don't have the natural barriers like Dorne. Admittedly I'm not sure if the Lannisters would attack a neutral Renly/Stormlands just for the sake of it as it would still be a fair amount of men to fight against, but not the overwhelming numbers of the Reach which act as a deterrent.

If he's already going against the Crown then to be honest I don't see why he wouldn't crown himself king. None of the other factions really bring any benefits that outweigh this. Siding with Stannis gives him relatively little and would probably alienate the Tyrells. Also he is already going against the perceived 'legitimate' authority in the realm, so why would he back his dislikable brother instead of himself? If I remember correctly at this point Stannis has not sent any communications and has been isolated on Dragonstone for around a year. He wasn't around to help Robert and Renly in their hour of need, I don't think it would be too far-fetched to suppose that Renly felt Stannis had abandoned them at that point.

He could form an anti-Lannister coalition with Robb? Declare himself Storm King and ally with the King in the North to fight for independence and kill the Lannisters?

The problem I see with all of these scenarios is that they still don't benefit him as much as the 'Declare Self King of All Westeros' strategy, which also got him the biggest army allowing him to better defend himself. The other options are more of a risk and less of a reward. I agree with Buried Treasure in that self-preservation was an important factor in Renly crowning himself. He knew that Cersei wanted him dead and Cersei's own thoughts confirm this.

Overall, Renly just wasn't in a position to remain neutral.

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Of course he could have stayed neutral if he wanted to.

He could also have offered his help as a kingmaker to any faction putting forth claims - Cersei/Joffrey, Stannis, Robb Stark, even Balon Greyjoy. Renly had enough standing with and influence over his own bannermen, the Tyrells, and many Lords of the Reach to get all of them in line and support his own bid for the throne - not only against Robert's son but also against his elder brother Stannis.

Renly could have used his influence over those people just as well to form a neutral power bloc - like Lysa or the Dornish did - and from that position of strength he could have asked the pretenders what they would give him if he were to support them.

The books do not support he weird idea that great nobility - royalty even - are routinely murdered by a victorious pretender for the crime of 'staying neutral'. That's just nonsense. Not even the worst tyrants in Westerosi history did that. Maegor didn't persecute the folks who declared neither for him nor Aegon the Uncrowned, nor did he just murder his nephews for the crimes of simply existing. Ditto the Tyrells during the Dance, the various neutral lords during the Blackfyre rebellions or Robert's Rebellion. If you can get a pardon when you were an open rebel then staying neutral should be no problem at all.

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I agree with the points raised by @Lord Varys as to why Renly could theoretically pull this off. I don't mean to suggest that he sit the whole war out. But he could stall long enough for either Stannis or Tywin to make him a reasonable offer for him to say 'well, of course Joffrey/Stannis is the true king!' Raising an army takes quite awhile, after all, even if you're in a rush. He and the Tyrells could just take their time, and make excuses. 'Why of course we're doing all we can, but you have to understand the challenges we're facing here. I suppose I could convince our banners to muster their men faster, but it'll be a horrendous strain on them and their small folk. Is there any thing you can to do help sweeten the pot?'

I like the point raised by @Buried Treasure that Renly might have raised his banners in order to protect himself before getting it into his head that he could be king. But I'm not sure if that timing works out with the Tyrells - they wouldn't rally their entire region in order to protect him, unless he was their king.

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1 hour ago, DominusNovus said:

I agree with the points raised by @Lord Varys as to why Renly could theoretically pull this off. I don't mean to suggest that he sit the whole war out. But he could stall long enough for either Stannis or Tywin to make him a reasonable offer for him to say 'well, of course Joffrey/Stannis is the true king!' Raising an army takes quite awhile, after all, even if you're in a rush. He and the Tyrells could just take their time, and make excuses. 'Why of course we're doing all we can, but you have to understand the challenges we're facing here. I suppose I could convince our banners to muster their men faster, but it'll be a horrendous strain on them and their small folk. Is there any thing you can to do help sweeten the pot?'

 

Renly couldn't pull this off, neither side would ever forgive that stunt and either side was ever to ready to murder him anyway. Family mebers who sit on their thumbs during vicious family squabbles aren't well welcomed.

Besides when Renly raised his banner, Stannis wasn't even a factor and the Lannisters were trying to get him killed already, he had no choice but to rebel.

 

7 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

Renly could've done all kinds of things differently. But that would've required him to be another person better than grabbing for the throne for shits and giggles.

 

Eh, at least he's honest with himself.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The books do not support he weird idea that great nobility - royalty even - are routinely murdered by a victorious pretender for the crime of 'staying neutral'. That's just nonsense. Not even the worst tyrants in Westerosi history did that. Maegor didn't persecute the folks who declared neither for him nor Aegon the Uncrowned, [snip]

Stannis rewarded the saviour of Storm's End with lands and a knighthood - but also cut his fingers off. Is that supported in the books? Or is it a weird idea, just nonsense? In fact, it is weird, because Stannis is weird.

Using the logic of 'the books do not support...' fails because it assumes nothing new can happen. It ignores the individuality of current players which (because we know them) is a major factor. Like, Joffrey notoriously does not read history books, equally notoriously does not take advice on who to execute or not. And Stannis is weird.

That's enough for me.

Ducking back to the conversation on Renly's kingship bid, does anyone know why he was so scared of Cersei? The night before the coup?

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28 minutes ago, frenin said:

Renly couldn't pull this off, neither side would ever forgive that stunt and either side was ever to ready to murder him anyway. Family mebers who sit on their thumbs during vicious family squabbles aren't well welcomed.

People say this, repeatedly, but on what basis? Stannis is one to hold a grudge, sure, but if Renly's initially neutral, thats a hell of a lot better than Renly declaring himself king, which Stannis was still willing to forgive on generous terms if Renly surrendered (generous because Stannis knew he could kill Renly at his pleasure - he didn't even have to bother with their parley). If Renly stays neutral through the whole war, then there's an argument to be made that he'll be a pariah (as much as any Lord Paramoutn can be), but I doubt he'd do that in this scenario. At some point, there will be a serious advantage in siding with either claimant.

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2 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

. But he could stall long enough for either Stannis or Tywin to make him a reasonable offer for him to say 'well, of course Joffrey/Stannis is the true king!'

But he can't. Davos is out in Renlys Stormlands attempting to poach his knights. This was unsuccessful because they already had a king, Renly, but if your what if was a thing, no king Renly, no Stormknights to stay neutral woth

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33 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Ducking back to the conversation on Renly's kingship bid, does anyone know why he was so scared of Cersei? The night before the coup?

I think he was acting up a bit, probably scared of the whole situation. But idk, she got those green eyes...

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35 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

does anyone know why he was so scared of Cersei? The night before the coup?


Just knowing what kind of people Cersei and Joffrey are is enough but beyond that Renly represents what is basically the only power left at court not tied to the Lannister faction and he's never be shy about showing this. Conflict is already bubbling up with general anti Lannister sentiment and he knows he'll be a target under Lannister hegemony, beyond his anti-Lannister stance he's a target anyway because he has no children and with his demise Storm's End would likely pass back to Robert's children. 

 

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32 minutes ago, DominusNovus said:

People say this, repeatedly, but on what basis? Stannis is one to hold a grudge, sure, but if Renly's initially neutral, thats a hell of a lot better than Renly declaring himself king, which Stannis was still willing to forgive on generous terms if Renly surrendered (generous because Stannis knew he could kill Renly at his pleasure - he didn't even have to bother with their parley). If Renly stays neutral through the whole war, then there's an argument to be made that he'll be a pariah (as much as any Lord Paramoutn can be), but I doubt he'd do that in this scenario. At some point, there will be a serious advantage in siding with either claimant.

The Lannisters were openly gunning for his head and Stannis's only choice of winning the throne was Renly's stormlords and he was going to get them one way or the other, as he ended up doing anyway, so it's literally impossible for Renly to stay neutral. Either he declares for one side, i repeat myself Stannis wasn't a factor till after Renly's coronation or he takes the throne for himself or he chooses exile.

Neutrality is the pipest of pipe dreams.

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21 minutes ago, DominusNovus said:

People say this, repeatedly, but on what basis? Stannis is one to hold a grudge, sure, but if Renly's initially neutral, thats a hell of a lot better than Renly declaring himself king, which Stannis was still willing to forgive on generous terms if Renly surrendered (generous because Stannis knew he could kill Renly at his pleasure - he didn't even have to bother with their parley). If Renly stays neutral through the whole war, then there's an argument to be made that he'll be a pariah (as much as any Lord Paramoutn can be), but I doubt he'd do that in this scenario. At some point, there will be a serious advantage in siding with either claimant.


Why wait out the war hoping for "a serious advantage" when you can just claim the crown and gather one of the largest armies the continent has ever known while you enemies are embroiled in a bloody struggle already? Stannis made no claim before Renly was crowned and I don't see why Renly would be waiting for him to make one. Renly has also always been in opposition to the Lannister domination of the court so why wait for an offer from Tywin who would be bargaining from a position of weakness anyway. 
 

Renly made the mistake of not knowing Stannis had an assassin made of shadow, he knew how strong his influence was in the Reach as Penrose says some of his greatest friends were the great lords of the Reach and not just the Tyrells, he knew he was in a position to not only be a player but to dominate the field... besides magical assassins. 

Sure he could wait but there aren't many compelling reasons why he should. 

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56 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Ducking back to the conversation on Renly's kingship bid, does anyone know why he was so scared of Cersei? The night before the coup?

Because he knew that Cersei wanted to kill him.

 

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7 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

It has been a long time since I've been active on here (a delay between new material will do that), but I've been musing on this idea lately. I've been thinking of one of the classic 'what ifs' of ASOIAF (as I remember, some people here really dislike 'what if' discussions, so my apologies to them): what if Renly and Stannis had gotten along, or Renly agreed to Stannis' terms at Storm's End, or anything along those lines. Discussions of that topic tend to really revolve around what the Tyrells would do if they couldn't get Margaery wed to a direct claimant to the Iron Throne, whether or not Loras' affection for Renly would overcome Mace's ambitions for his daughter, and what Olenna thought was the best path forward. To me, the most compelling argument is that the Tyrells would have done their best to stay neutral, and, if Renly doesn't consummate the marriage with Margaery, have it annulled so they can wait for a better offer.

It strikes me that Renly, himself, could have done that strategy just fine. Maybe he marries Margaery, or maybe he still tries to play matchmaker for her. Either way, he and the Tyrells can keep the Stormlands and Reach out of the war for the time being, and wait until someone gives them a good enough offer. There's siding with Stannis, Tywin, or Cat's suggestion of convening a council to resolve the claims. Whatever the case may be, Renly could have played the exact same game as the Tyrells, either together or separately (my gut says together would make more sense). Renly and the Tyrells can play the honorable card of saying that they can't be convinced of either side's legitimacy just yet, and can't in good faith risk fighting for the less legitimate side. Its a paper shield, of course, but it does mean that they look far less hypocritical when they finally do pick a side.

This would have one immediate wrinkle of strengthening Stannis's position, because Robb would be far more likely to declare for Stannis. However, both Stannis and Tywin would be accutely aware of this giant threat to the south that could be on their enemy's side in an instant. I could see Stannis being the bolder of the two, simply because he doesn't really have much in the way of mainland territory to defend, and he can link up with Robb's forces or threaten King's Landing. However, give Tywin and Tyrion enough time to prepare their position, and I don't want to underestimate what they could pull off.

Of course, all of these options leave out that Renly could just declare himself king afterward. The easiest path is if Stannis happens to die, in which case it falls on poor Renly to avenge both his brothers' deaths. Or maybe both Stannis and Tywin wear each other down and Renly can just revert to the shameless 'I have the bigger army' opportunist he naturally was.

So, aside from being mildly out of character - but not entirely so, he was willing to be a power behind the throne if Robert hadn't died - is there anything about this scenario that doesn't just work out better for Renly's position? And what concessions do you think Renly and the Tyrells could have gotten beyond what Stannis offered at Storm's End or Tywin offered through Littlefinger?

Really could have stayed neutral personally, but the Tyrells wanted a Queen.

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4 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

I agree with the points raised by @Lord Varys as to why Renly could theoretically pull this off. I don't mean to suggest that he sit the whole war out. But he could stall long enough for either Stannis or Tywin to make him a reasonable offer for him to say 'well, of course Joffrey/Stannis is the true king!' Raising an army takes quite awhile, after all, even if you're in a rush. He and the Tyrells could just take their time, and make excuses. 'Why of course we're doing all we can, but you have to understand the challenges we're facing here. I suppose I could convince our banners to muster their men faster, but it'll be a horrendous strain on them and their small folk. Is there any thing you can to do help sweeten the pot?'

Even more so, since both Stannis and Cersei/Tywin were in desperate need of more swords. If Renly hadn't proclaimed himself king he would have been the first great lord who was approached by both sides. Stannis would have demanded that his little brother support his claim because of the twincest, and some Lannister (Tywin, Tyrion) would have decided that, at this point, they couldn't really risk turning Renly into their enemy ... if Renly had been gracious enough to not take up arms against them.

Renly would have gotten as good - or better - a deal as Doran Martell, Mace Tyrell, and Lysa Arryn. Hell, if he hadn't married Margaery himself, he could have ended up marrying Myrcella while arranging a marriage between Margaery and Joffrey. Cersei certainly may have resisted something like that, but Tywin and Tyrion could have pushed it through. Especially if the war effort was starting to go to hell thanks to Renly not suddenly disappearing and the Westermen insisting on negotiations and peace, expecting that they couldn't stand all by themselves against Stannis and the Tully-Stark power bloc.

Keep in mind, that Robb's coronation is in no small part inspired by Renly's coronation. So if Renly never proclaims himself, we might not get a King in the North/of the Trident, meaning once the twincest letters arrive we would get an alliance between Robb's forces and Stannis.

4 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

I like the point raised by @Buried Treasure that Renly might have raised his banners in order to protect himself before getting it into his head that he could be king. But I'm not sure if that timing works out with the Tyrells - they wouldn't rally their entire region in order to protect him, unless he was their king.

I don't think the self-defense narrative works. Renly could have defended himself without making himself king. Or he could at least have tried to do this. He crowned himself because he wanted to, not because 'he had no other choice'. But it certainly makes sense that he does try to justify his attempted usurpation that way. He also rationalizes his flight from the capital in that manner.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

The Lannisters were openly gunning for his head and Stannis's only choice of winning the throne was Renly's stormlords and he was going to get them one way or the other, as he ended up doing anyway, so it's literally impossible for Renly to stay neutral. Either he declares for one side, i repeat myself Stannis wasn't a factor till after Renly's coronation or he takes the throne for himself or he chooses exile.

Neutrality is the pipest of pipe dreams.

Some Lannisters (mainly Cersei) had severe issues with Renly (nor reason why). If Renly had approached Tywin with an offer the man wouldn't have refused. Not after the Whispering Wood, and especially not after Ned's execution.

2 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Stannis rewarded the saviour of Storm's End with lands and a knighthood - but also cut his fingers off. Is that supported in the books? Or is it a weird idea, just nonsense? In fact, it is weird, because Stannis is weird.

Stannis also offers Renly to name him his heir if he renounces his kingship. He doesn't expect him to go do this, of course, but he doesn't insist on killing his brother just because he can with the help of his sorceress. He does it, because Renly doesn't yield.

If Renly hadn't taken up arms against Stannis - hell, even if he had risen to the defense of Robert's children, believing them to the rightful heirs - Stannis wouldn't have tried to kill him. At least not for this 'crime'.

2 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Using the logic of 'the books do not support...' fails because it assumes nothing new can happen. It ignores the individuality of current players which (because we know them) is a major factor. Like, Joffrey notoriously does not read history books, equally notoriously does not take advice on who to execute or not. And Stannis is weird.

Stannis isn't that weird ... and Joff isn't running the show. His regent and Hand(s) are. Joff didn't want to marry Margaery, either, yet he did. Joff didn't stop the Myrcella betrothal nor the reconciliation betwen the Iron Throne and the Tyrells, the Arryns, etc.

We shouldn't assume that Renly and the Lannisters would have ever become best buddies. But if Renly had been willing to work with them they would have worked with him. Just as they later worked with the Tyrells. And, one imagines, there would have been about as much trust between them and Renly as there is between the Lannisters and the Tyrells.

2 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Ducking back to the conversation on Renly's kingship bid, does anyone know why he was so scared of Cersei? The night before the coup?

He didn't like Cersei - but I don't think he was afraid. He just correctly deduced that Cersei would do anything to seize the regency and stop Ned from taking it. He was correct in his assessment that acting before Robert was actually dead would have made Ned's installation as Lord Regent only a formality. He is addressing Ned there, trying to tell him that if you are not as ruthless as Cersei you are not going to win. That the Lannisters would not have any mercy in a power struggle could easily be deduced from the Kingslayer's actions, the murder of Elia and the children, etc.

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