Could Renly have stayed neutral?

[Victor Newman]

Renly would have to negotiate in detail with Stannis.  He needs to cover his butt against revenge from his brother and his followers.  Stannis is a man who will break his word if he sees the need though. 

[Hugorfonics]

4 hours ago, frenin said:

And yet Tywin was talking about destroying the Baratheons anyway and so were his daughter and grandkid.

Lannisters like to talk

4 hours ago, frenin said:

At any point of the story do either the Baratheon brothers or the Lannisters want to negotiate.

Well Stannis doesn't negotiate and Renly dies like three minutes into the story, but theres talk of negotiations nonetheless 

Quote

"Not treason. Never treason. I love His Grace as much as any man. My own niece is his queen, and I remained loyal to him when wiser men fled. I am his Hand, the Hand of the King, how can I be a traitor? I only meant to save our lives, and . . . honor . . . yes." He licked his lips. "I penned a letter. Salladhor Saan swore that he had a man who could get it to King's Landing, to Lord Tywin. His lordship is a . . . a man of reason, and my terms . . . the terms were fair . . . more than fair."

 

4 hours ago, frenin said:

The Lannisters are making their statement perfectly clear, they were willing to negotiate with anyone but Robert's brothers, this is not debatable

Lol that's not clear at all man. Lannister has not special hatred for Baratheon, if anything it's the other way 

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Stannis is a different ballgame. (I don't see what more he could have compromised with Renly about, he reaffirmed Renly as lord of Stormsend and heir. Did he want to be hand or something?) Renly must submit or be destroyed, and the only option of not being destroyed (without giving in to Stannis) is to give his men something to fight about.

Dragonstone is not enough to conquer seven kingdoms, he needs one of the og kingdoms for that. His natural destination must be the Stormlands, to fight with his ancestors subjects like a proper Baratheon. Plus it's close.

I really just find it impossible for Stannis to assault Kingslanding while the storm knights simply pass around the popcorn

I our scenario Stannis would have approached Renly because Renly wouldn't have crowned himself, and then Renly would have made a decision. If he had made the wrong call Stannis may haven't been *that* forgiving if he had won, but chances are not that bad that a Renly in this scenario would have supported Stannis.

Chances would actually be pretty good for this, considering Renly did loathe the Lannister, and supporting Stannis could have made him king himself one day, as Stannis' presumptive heir. And if Renly had predeceased Stannis then, well, Renly's son may have succeeded Stannis. Chances that Stannis would have named Shireen his heir are not that likely ... nor that she does live long enough to succeed her father if Stannis were to rule for decades. She is a sickly child, after all.

In context, George completely dropped the ball by having Stannis not tell Renly about the twincest immediately after he learned of Robert's death. I mean, he should have told everyone as early as possible, but keeping his own brother in the dark about this was a grievous and completely stupid mistake. No person in his position would act like that.

By not telling Renly Stannis was making it possible, likely even, that Renly would do homage and swear fealty to a false king - and hundreds of lords and knights as well. Stannis' goal should have been to undermine and stop Joffrey's coronation, not to challenge the boy king after had taken possession of the Iron Throne.

And with the twincest story Stannis had the means to do that even while Robert was still alive. Even if he had not wanted to approach Robert directly after Jon's death ... not telling other key players clandestinely and undermine the legitimacy of Cersei's children through rumors was a stupid error.

Aegon IV was able to cause the Blackfyre rebellion with such rumors ... if Stannis had spread rumors during the last year of Robert's reign Joffrey may have never been crowned.

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Lannisters like to talk

Their actions and their talking match.

 

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Well Stannis doesn't negotiate and Renly dies like three minutes into the story, but theres talk of negotiations nonetheless 

We have no confirmation that Tywin even received/read/cared for the letter, that letter isn't discussed in Knig's Landing at all. It seems like a desperate hail mary.

 

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Lol that's not clear at all man. Lannister has not special hatred for Baratheon, if anything it's the other way 

You don't need to have a special hatred for someone to decide that they don't fit in your plans. And neither the Baratheons nor the Lannisters fitted in each other's plans.

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I our scenario Stannis would have approached Renly because Renly wouldn't have crowned himself, and then Renly would have made a decision.

But that scenario doesn't make sense. Stannis didn't negotiate with Lysa or Robb either, I'm sure that Renlys crown exacerbated the whole situation, but in this scenario, Stannis would still not go to his little brother in homage, asking him to be kingmaker.

Renly read the letter, according to Stannis he should drop to one knee now. (Or both, who cares? Stannis isn't about to beg to be proclaimed Aegons successor first day on the job)

Besides, Stannis isn't just demanding Renlys fealty, he's demanding his men's too

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

In context, George completely dropped the ball by having Stannis not tell Renly about the twincest immediately after he learned of Robert's death. I mean, he should have told everyone as early as possible, but keeping his own brother in the dark about this was a grievous and completely stupid mistake. No person in his position would act like that.

Renly would be the one dropping the ball, not GRRM. Worst case scenario, Renly uses this info to become king himself, usurping bugger he is. Most likely case is he overplays his hand and everyone dies. Jon's death certainly freaked Stannis the fuck out enough to just run to homebase and prepare for war. (Which I'm sure Pete knew) 

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Their actions and their talking match

Lannisters lie

1 hour ago, frenin said:

We have no confirmation that Tywin even received/read/cared for the letter, that letter isn't discussed in Knig's Landing at all. It seems like a desperate hail mary

That'd be in keeping with character, do nothing. He did it with Mance, every other king but Robb, and kind of Robb

Quote

What else would you call it? Father sits in one castle, and Robb Stark sits in another, and no one does anything."

"There is sitting and there is sitting," Tyrion suggested. "Each one waits for the other to move, but the lion is still, poised, his tail twitching, while the fawn is frozen by fear, bowels turned to jelly. No matter which way he bounds, the lion will have him, and he knows it."

(Which of course is not what happens)

2 hours ago, frenin said:

You don't need to have a special hatred for someone to decide that they don't fit in your plans. And neither the Baratheons nor the Lannisters fitted in each other's plans

They make vague threats about each other, never more and certainly nothing resembling combat. I mean, Tywin famously says when they btk don't go Aerys, of course it was possible for Tywin to make peace. (Somebody else should do it though, because he does nothing. Like how Tyrion was the one to bring Tyrell arms to Tywins diminished army)

[Lord Lannister]

On 7/5/2022 at 3:21 PM, frenin said:

Eh, at least he's honest with himself.

So was Joffrey.

[frenin]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Lannisters lie

Tywin was not lying to Tyrion, Joff wasn't lying to Sansa and certainly Cersei wasn't lying to herself.

 

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

That'd be in keeping with character, do nothing. He did it with Mance, every other king but Robb, and kind of Robb

He didn't do that with every other king but Robb, he could not reach Renly and then he died, he orchestrated Robb murder and he went to face him in  the Westerlands till he was notified of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance and he smashed Stannis.

He didn't do nothing about Balon and Mance because he was hoping they and the northeners killed themselves. 

Even Tywin discussed such offers, he didn't acknowledge at all Florent's letter, we can't even say that he actually received it.

 

 

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

They make vague threats about each other, never more and certainly nothing resembling combat. I mean, Tywin famously says when they btk don't go Aerys, of course it was possible for Tywin to make peace. (Somebody else should do it though, because he does nothing. Like how Tyrion was the one to bring Tyrell arms to Tywins diminished army)

You're dismissing Tywin's own words to put forward your headcanon, Tywin shows willingness to make peace with everyone but Robert's brothers, ditto with the other Lannisters.  

 

9 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

So was Joffrey.

Nah, Joffrey wasn't honest to himself a lot. 

 

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Jon's death certainly freaked Stannis the fuck out enough to just run to homebase and prepare for war.

Nah, he would have stayed just fine had Robert made him Hand of the King, he only leaves after that.

[Hugorfonics]

19 hours ago, frenin said:

Tywin was not lying to Tyrion, Joff wasn't lying to Sansa and certainly Cersei wasn't lying to herself.

All of them lie all the time

19 hours ago, frenin said:

He didn't do that with every other king but Robb,

Totally ignored Stannis till Mace picked up Tywin on the side of the road on his way to Blackwater 

20 hours ago, frenin said:

he could not reach Renly and then he died,

What if he stood on his tippy toes? What do you mean he couldn't reach him?

20 hours ago, frenin said:

he orchestrated Robb murder

He approved it, didn't orchestrate.

20 hours ago, frenin said:

and he went to face him in  the Westerlands

He also didn't. Here, even if he stood on a bar stool he couldn't reach. Edumre smacked the hell outta Gregor when they tried. (Unfortunately for the war)

20 hours ago, frenin said:

was notified of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance and he smashed Stannis.

Ok, but that's really looking at the scene with rose tints

 

20 hours ago, frenin said:

You're dismissing Tywin's own words to put forward your headcanon, Tywin shows willingness to make peace with everyone but Robert's brothers, ditto with the other Lannisters.  

My head canon? Nah bro yours. And of course this shits debatable.

Dude Tywin says when they btk let em rise. If he was cool with Robb rejoining the kings peace then he'd be cool with Stannis too

20 hours ago, frenin said:

Nah, he would have stayed just fine had Robert made him Hand of the King, he only leaves after that.

Only as Hand could Stannis take the measurements that won't result in Roberts (and Neds) death

[Lord Varys]

23 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

But that scenario doesn't make sense. Stannis didn't negotiate with Lysa or Robb either, I'm sure that Renlys crown exacerbated the whole situation, but in this scenario, Stannis would still not go to his little brother in homage, asking him to be kingmaker.

Stannis sent Davos as an envoy to the Stormlords after Renly declared himself. Do you think he wouldn't have not sent any envoys to the Stormlords (Renly included) if Renly had not crowned himself?

Stannis needs and wants the support of the Stormlords.

23 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Renly read the letter, according to Stannis he should drop to one knee now. (Or both, who cares? Stannis isn't about to beg to be proclaimed Aegons successor first day on the job)

Our scenario is that Renly reads the letter and learns about other developments and then he and his allies make a choice - back this or that pretender, stay neutral even longer, etc.

23 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Besides, Stannis isn't just demanding Renlys fealty, he's demanding his men's too

In our scenario Renly controls a certain number of levies and is going to offer them to the highest bidder ... or the pretender he wants to support for some other reason.

23 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Renly would be the one dropping the ball, not GRRM. Worst case scenario, Renly uses this info to become king himself, usurping bugger he is. Most likely case is he overplays his hand and everyone dies. Jon's death certainly freaked Stannis the fuck out enough to just run to homebase and prepare for war. (Which I'm sure Pete knew)

The point is that not telling anyone about the twincest means Joffrey can ascend the Iron Throne without any meaningful or timely opposition. It would be quite different if half the Realm had heard or even started to believe that Cersei's children were not Robert's.

Of course Renly or others could use the twincest story as pretext to crown themselves or do all sorts of things ... but telling as late as he did clearly weakened Stannis' position. And he didn't expect that Renly would crown himself in any case. Else Stannis himself would have acted sooner, telling everybody that he was 'the rightful king'.

[Hugorfonics]

34 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Stannis sent Davos as an envoy to the Stormlords after Renly declared himself. Do you think he wouldn't have not sent any envoys to the Stormlords (Renly included) if Renly had not crowned himself?

Stannis needs and wants the support of the Stormlords.

Definitely sending Davos. And then what? Either Renly submits or not.

36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

In our scenario Renly controls a certain number of levies and is going to offer them to the highest bidder

In theory, and in practice, Renly controls the Stormlands, true. But legally, and in Stannis' mind, theyre all the kings men. All men must stay loyal to the trueborn king is one of those fun and hypocritical Stannis quotes.

41 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The point is that not telling anyone about the twincest means Joffrey can ascend the Iron Throne without any meaningful or timely opposition. It would be quite different if half the Realm had heard or even started to believe that Cersei's children were not Robert's.

He told Jon, the most powerful man these past 20 years. He didnt expect Jon to get murdered (let alone a framed murder)

43 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Of course Renly or others could use the twincest story as pretext to crown themselves or do all sorts of things ... but telling as late as he did clearly weakened Stannis' position. And he didn't expect that Renly would crown himself in any case. Else Stannis himself would have acted sooner, telling everybody that he was 'the rightful king'.

Word, theres no doubt that the OP is on to something, Renly acted prematurely. And while Stannis acted too late it was because of unforeseen events like the murder of Jon, ascension of Renly and I think the biggest game changer/curve ball, the execution of Ned and consequently The Young Wolfs campaign. 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Definitely sending Davos. And then what? Either Renly submits or not.

And if he doesn't submit then Stannis would either have to make a better offer ... or pardon his brother later if he wins. Stannis has no moral right to force Renly (or anyone) to believe his twincest story without proof. And he knows that.

3 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

In theory, and in practice, Renly controls the Stormlands, true. But legally, and in Stannis' mind, theyre all the kings men. All men must stay loyal to the trueborn king is one of those fun and hypocritical Stannis quotes.

Stannis didn't punish any of the Stormlords who first fought for Renly and then joined him ... he would thus also not punish his brother if his help came late(r) or not at all.

3 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

He told Jon, the most powerful man these past 20 years. He didnt expect Jon to get murdered (let alone a framed murder)

That's a non-issue. Stannis should have talked to somebody outside his own household about this after Jon's death.

Stannis effectively triggered the entire succession war by not enabling Robert to rule on the twincest story and his own success. If Robert had removed Cersei's children from the succession there wouldn't have been a succession war.

3 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Word, theres no doubt that the OP is on to something, Renly acted prematurely. And while Stannis acted too late it was because of unforeseen events like the murder of Jon, ascension of Renly and I think the biggest game changer/curve ball, the execution of Ned and consequently The Young Wolfs campaign. 

No, Stannis failed to make his intentions known - and that doesn't make any sense. Joff was longed crowned king in KL ... while all of Westeros had still no clue that Stannis was contesting this and intending to take the throne for himself.

Even if Renly and Robb had done nothing in all those months - Joff would have been crowned and Stannis would have to challenge a crowned king. If he had opened his mouth sooner Joff's coronation may have been prevented.

[frenin]

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

All of them lie all the time

They are not lying there, they are not lying in private conversations while discussing strategy, they are not lying in their private thoughts, come on pal, that's the lamest excuse there is.

 

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Totally ignored Stannis till Mace picked up Tywin on the side of the road on his way to Blackwater 

He did not ignore Stannis, he didn't have strenght at sea first to go to Dragonstone and then he believed Stannis would be locked in Storm's End for months.

 

 

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

What if he stood on his tippy toes? What do you mean he couldn't reach him?

He was fighting Robb when Renly died. 

 

 

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

He approved it, didn't orchestrate.

Fair enough, the same thing tho.

 

 

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

He also didn't. Here, even if he stood on a bar stool he couldn't reach. Edumre smacked the hell outta Gregor when they tried. (Unfortunately for the war)

He went to face Robb, he could not reach him but that was his intent.

 

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

My head canon? Nah bro yours. And of course this shits debatable.

Dude Tywin says when they btk let em rise. If he was cool with Robb rejoining the kings peace then he'd be cool with Stannis too

No, it's yours. Tywin and the rest of the Lannsters make clear that they are ready to negotiate with every party bar Robert's brothers. That's not headcanon, that's their words.

It's inmaterial thus if Tywin would accept other rebels, those rebels are not the Baratheon brothers.

 

 

 

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Only as Hand could Stannis take the measurements that won't result in Roberts (and Neds) death

Says who? He only had to tell them the truth, he didn't need to be Hand for that. Anyway, it's not Arryn's death what freaks Stannis out, it's Robert's insult.

 

 

[Trigger Warning]

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Only as Hand could Stannis take the measurements that won't result in Roberts (and Neds) death

Do you reckon Stannis would accept that excuse from one of his retainers had they known that his life had been in jeopardy? 

[sifth]

Cersei would never let Renly live. Just being alive and looking more like Robert than Joff did, would make him a threat in Cersei’s eyes. 

[Hugorfonics]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And if he doesn't submit then Stannis would either have to make a better offer

Like what? All I can think of is becoming Hand

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

or pardon his brother later if he wins. Stannis has no moral right to force Renly (or anyone) to believe his twincest story without proof. And he knows that

There is no later, if Renly says no then he's an enemy.

I don't think he knows that, whatever, it's not about moral right it's about steel. If Stannis takes the throne it'll be because of war, he does know that.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Stannis didn't punish any of the Stormlords who first fought for Renly and then joined him ... he would thus also not punish his brother if his help came late(r) or not at all.

Maybe. But we're still time skipping stuff. Stannis' first step is to the Stormlands, if they're neutral today there's a war tomorrow 

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That's a non-issue. Stannis should have talked to somebody outside his own household about this after Jon's death.

Stannis effectively triggered the entire succession war by not enabling Robert to rule on the twincest story and his own success. If Robert had removed Cersei's children from the succession there wouldn't have been a succession war

Like, this is all in the book. Stannis was paranoid and every letter he would send like all that Ned sent would have been intercepted by Pycelle. He also knew this was a hard sell because he'd magically become heir and everyone already hates him.

Wars is inevitable, this is Tywin we're talking about

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, Stannis failed to make his intentions known - and that doesn't make any sense. Joff was longed crowned king in KL ... while all of Westeros had still no clue that Stannis was contesting this and intending to take the throne for himself.

Even if Renly and Robb had done nothing in all those months - Joff would have been crowned and Stannis would have to challenge a crowned king. If he had opened his mouth sooner Joff's coronation may have been prevented.

Doesn't matter. Hardly anyone showed up to the coronation, short a Summer Island Prince and Sansa.

 

2 hours ago, frenin said:

They are not lying there, they are not lying in private conversations while discussing strategy, they are not lying in their private thoughts, come on pal, that's the lamest excuse there is.

I don't believe anything they say. Besides they never say that they'll refuse to ever make peace with Baratheon.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

He did not ignore Stannis, he didn't have strenght at sea first to go to Dragonstone and then he believed Stannis would be locked in Storm's End for months

Stannis wasn't nearly the threat Robb was, for sure. Sometimes there's good reasons to ignore stuff till later, not saying it's the worst strategy 

2 hours ago, frenin said:

He was fighting Robb when Renly died. 

Because Renly was hardly a threat, totally perceptible to negotiations.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

He went to face Robb, he could not reach him but that was his intent.

Eventually, after Robb ran circles around him. Much unlike Tyrions prediction 

2 hours ago, frenin said:

No, it's yours. Tywin and the rest of the Lannsters make clear that they are ready to negotiate with every party bar Robert's brothers. That's not headcanon, that's their words

No it it's not man! What words? That Tywin wishes he had more time before dealing with Stannis? Obviously, it's fucking Stannis. But just because they expect the probable doesn't mean they're going to chase every windmill they see.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Says who? He only had to tell them the truth, he didn't need to be Hand for that. Anyway, it's not Arryn's death what freaks Stannis out, it's Robert's insult.

No one would believe him.

 

1 hour ago, Trigger Warning said:

Do you reckon Stannis would accept that excuse from one of his retainers had they known that his life had been in jeopardy? 

I reckon. If it was like Davos, he's a good talker. Stannis is able to see reason, especially after the fact 

[frenin]

10 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I don't believe anything they say. Besides they never say that they'll refuse to ever make peace with Baratheon.

No, just that whereas they hope to make peace with the other regions the want to deal with Robert's brothers.

 

 

10 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Because Renly was hardly a threat, totally perceptible to negotiations.

The man who marshalled the greatest army Westeros had ever seen with the sole intent of ending the threat the Lannisters posed to him was "hardly a threat and totally perceptible to negotiations"?

 

 

10 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

No it it's not man! What words? That Tywin wishes he had more time before dealing with Stannis? Obviously, it's fucking Stannis. But just because they expect the probable doesn't mean they're going to chase every windmill they see.

Yeah those words, not just Stannis, both of the brothes.

And Tywin isn't choosing to chase every windmill he sees, he's choosing to specifically destroy two of them.

 

 

10 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

No one would believe him.

 

Wonder how Arryn did then, besides if they do not him, the Handship would not change anything, Robert or whomever would consider his actions treason regardless.

 

[Hugorfonics]

4 hours ago, frenin said:

No, just that whereas they hope to make peace with the other regions the want to deal with Robert's brothers.

Right, because they correctly summarize that the Baratheons will war till they win or lose, not because they like swore an oath to never share the same sky

4 hours ago, frenin said:

The man who marshalled the greatest army Westeros had ever seen with the sole intent of ending the threat the Lannisters posed to him was "hardly a threat and totally perceptible to negotiations"?

Yes, which is why Robb and Stannis try. Also Renly never says his intent is to destroy house Lannister, and lastly I'm pretty sure JonA had the biggest army marshalled in Westeros history. (Mance too, but he's slightly outside the 7 kingdoms so maybe doesn't count)

4 hours ago, frenin said:

And Tywin isn't choosing to chase every windmill he sees, he's choosing to specifically destroy two of them.

But he's not, right? He's fighting Robb.

4 hours ago, frenin said:

Wonder how Arryn did then,

Gendry. And that book about different hairstyles or something 

4 hours ago, frenin said:

Robert or whomever would consider his actions treason regardless.

After the fact, like Stannis and Davos. King may be pissed he was circumvented, but the jobs complete now and the king has been saved

[Lord Varys]

15 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Like what? All I can think of is becoming Hand

I don't know - money, land, marriage, more titles, more of everything. Stannis needs Renly in all of this, not the other way around as the books we read aptly show.

15 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

There is no later, if Renly says no then he's an enemy.

Obviously not. Stannis cannot afford to make Renly an enemy ... and even in the books we know he tries to (kind of) compromise with him first.

And to be clear - in our scenario where Renly doesn't want to to be king himself but still loathes the Lannisters and intended to supplant Queen Cersei with Queen Margaery chances are pretty high that Renly would side with Stannis rather than the Lannisters after the twincest story is out.

Stannis is his brother and he doesn't hate him ... but he does hate the Lannisters. They would have to offer him a lot for him to overcome his distrust and side with them. Stannis ... not so much. He is Renly's brother and Renly doesn't hate him. He just doesn't like him all that much.

15 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I don't think he knows that, whatever, it's not about moral right it's about steel. If Stannis takes the throne it'll be because of war, he does know that.

And he would like to want Renly's steel in our scenario. He says it himself in the book - he won't talk with Renly as long as he calls himself king. If Renly never called himself king the relationship of the brothers wouldn't have been that fucked up.

15 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Maybe. But we're still time skipping stuff. Stannis' first step is to the Stormlands, if they're neutral today there's a war tomorrow 

If Renly and his lords are neutral then they are neutral. Stannis could march through the lands or around them on his way to KL and there would be no danger to him.

15 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Like, this is all in the book. Stannis was paranoid and every letter he would send like all that Ned sent would have been intercepted by Pycelle. He also knew this was a hard sell because he'd magically become heir and everyone already hates him.

That's just a stupid excuse. We don't have any proof that Pycelle would steal any such letters or that Stannis did believe he would. More importantly - Stannis can move. He can move his ass on a ship, go to KL in person, and talk to Ned or Robert. He could also send an envoy like Davos to talk to them in his stead if he didn't feel like going himself.

15 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Wars is inevitable, this is Tywin we're talking about

A war, perhaps - like in a Lannister rebellion that would be quickly crushed by all the loyal lords and knights. But no succession war where a King Joffrey is pitted against the pretender King Stannis. That scenario was Stannis' own doing.

15 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Doesn't matter. Hardly anyone showed up to the coronation, short a Summer Island Prince and Sansa.

It matters very much. Joff is still the legitimate, rightful king. He sits on the Iron Throne, not at poor Dragonstone in an ugly castle nor is he some warlord with an army. The reason Joff and Tommen prevailed so far is that they do have the advantage of controlling the capital.

Had Stannis acted sooner and like a competent realistic character, there wouldn't have been a succession war. George didn't really write this well. Either the plot makes little sense or Stannis is a complete moron as a character. I lean to the former, since Stannis doesn't strike one as a moron when he actually shows up in the story.

[Hugorfonics]

57 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't know - money, land, marriage, more titles, more of everything. Stannis needs Renly in all of this, not the other way around as the books we read aptly show.

Stannis needs Renlys men. Not Renly himself.

58 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Obviously not. Stannis cannot afford to make Renly an enemy ... and even in the books we know he tries to (kind of) compromise with him first.

And when that fails, Stannis kills him. How would this scenario be different?

59 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And he would like to want Renly's steel in our scenario. He says it himself in the book - he won't talk with Renly as long as he calls himself king. If Renly never called himself king the relationship of the brothers wouldn't have been that fucked up.

That's true, but he refused to go to Lysa with bowl in hand as well, and she has now crown to speak of 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

If Renly and his lords are neutral then they are neutral. Stannis could march through the lands or around them on his way to KL and there would be no danger to him.

But he can't, because the armies of Dragonstone consist of firshermen. He needs the Stormlands might to march to KL

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That's just a stupid excuse. We don't have any proof that Pycelle would steal any such letters or that Stannis did believe he would. More importantly - Stannis can move. He can move his ass on a ship, go to KL in person, and talk to Ned or Robert. He could also send an envoy like Davos to talk to them in his stead if he didn't feel like going himself.

It's probable. We never hear of Stannis getting any of Neds letters which isn't a surprise at all because Tyrion discovers Pycelles blatant treachery. It's beyond any reasonable doubt that Pycelle is tampering with the mail.

Stannis thought they'd get murdered, and he already makes it clear that Robert won't believe him. It may be a sorry excuse but he believes it.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

A war, perhaps - like in a Lannister rebellion that would be quickly crushed by all the loyal lords and knights. But no succession war where a King Joffrey is pitted against the pretender King Stannis. That scenario was Stannis' own doing.

No, that was Renly and Robb.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

It matters very much. Joff is still the legitimate, rightful king. He sits on the Iron Throne, not at poor Dragonstone in an ugly castle nor is he some warlord with an army. The reason Joff and Tommen prevailed so far is that they do have the advantage of controlling the capital

Define prevailing? KL is near civil war, Stormlands are at civil war (but KL isn't involved lol) and while the Riverlands and Winterfell is subdued (lol, not really) the rest of the north isn't, let alone Dorne IronIslands and the Vale. 

Davos tells his king in so many words, Westeros is bigger then the red keep

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Had Stannis acted sooner and like a competent realistic character, there wouldn't have been a succession war. George didn't really write this well. Either the plot makes little sense or Stannis is a complete moron as a character. I lean to the former, since Stannis doesn't strike one as a moron when he actually shows up in the story.

I think it's realistic writing, knowing Stannis' paranoia and the lack of his political skill. He's got other areas where his brilliance shines however, notably in battle command 

[frenin]

23 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Right, because they correctly summarize that the Baratheons will war till they win or lose, not because they like swore an oath to never share the same sky

And the Baratheons correctly summarize the Lannisters want them dead, anyway, they were not planning on negottiting with the Baratheons.

 

23 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Yes, which is why Robb and Stannis try. Also Renly never says his intent is to destroy house Lannister, and lastly I'm pretty sure JonA had the biggest army marshalled in Westeros history. (Mance too, but he's slightly outside the 7 kingdoms so maybe doesn't count)

No, he just wants them out of power, destroying them if he must to. And no, Renly's army was the biggest at the time marshalled in the realm, no mance doesn't really count, besides his was a super huge refugee camp with many soldiers.

 

 

23 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

But he's not, right? He's fighting Robb.

Robb was the more inmediate threat, then it was Stannis then it was Robb again. Even them, he wishes he could have made peace with Robb.

 

23 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Gendry. And that book about different hairstyles or something 

And Gendry would suddenly vanish then?

 

23 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

After the fact, like Stannis and Davos. King may be pissed he was circumvented, but the jobs complete now and the king has been saved

How? Is Stannis going to kill Cersei? He can't hardly do that without Robert's approval.