Could Renly have stayed neutral?

[Lord Varys]

On 7/9/2022 at 8:42 PM, Hugorfonics said:

Stannis needs Renlys men. Not Renly himself.

In our scenario Renly's men are his men - like they are in the books. And Stannis does not want to murder Renly and steal his men because Renly didn't crown himself.

On 7/9/2022 at 8:42 PM, Hugorfonics said:

And when that fails, Stannis kills him. How would this scenario be different?

The scenario would be different in the sense that Stannis doesn't feel as betrayed by Renly as he does in the books. There he thinks Renly wanting to be king is the ultimate betrayal ... where in our scenario Stannis has to justify his own treason against Joffrey to Renly and convince him why he, Renly, should join Stannis in a war against Robert's son and anointed heir.

On 7/9/2022 at 8:42 PM, Hugorfonics said:

That's true, but he refused to go to Lysa with bowl in hand as well, and she has now crown to speak of

At a point in time when Renly and Robb had already crowned themselves and Selyse was on the verge of convincing him to use foul magic to murder his brother and steal his armies.

In context Stannis would have expected the Vale would join Robb due to the Tully-Stark connection.

On 7/9/2022 at 8:42 PM, Hugorfonics said:

But he can't, because the armies of Dragonstone consist of firshermen. He needs the Stormlands might to march to KL

No, he would need more men to hold KL once he had taken it with his sellswords ... but they don't have to be Stormlanders. As I said - in our scenario Renly doesn't crown himself which might lead to Robb not crowning himself, either, since the deciding factor at Robb's war council is that everybody wants to be king these days (aside from Stannis, apparently, who hadn't declared himself yet), causing them to crown their own king.

If that Renly factor is missing Stannis may have gained the allegiance and support of Robb's armies. And that would have been more than enough. And again as I said - Renly would have ample motivation to side with Stannis in our scenario thanks to his own Lannister hatred.

On 7/9/2022 at 8:42 PM, Hugorfonics said:

It's probable. We never hear of Stannis getting any of Neds letters which isn't a surprise at all because Tyrion discovers Pycelles blatant treachery. It's beyond any reasonable doubt that Pycelle is tampering with the mail.

No, it is not. For one, Ned only sends casual letters to Stannis - 'when you are going to come back to court, my lord?' isn't the kind of thing we would expect Davos to hear about months later.

Pycelle doesn't mess with the mail. He merely handed a copy of a letter to Cersei - who was the Queen Regent at the time - because he felt she should know what Tyrion was writing to Doran Martell. She was the one in charge and Tyrion shouldn't arrange marriages without her consent or knowledge.

To jump from that to 'Pycelle doesn't even send letters' is a monstrous conclusion - especially at a time when Ned was the Hand of the King and King Robert still on the Iron Throne.

To our knowledge Pycelle didn't even know/suspect Stannis knew about the twincest at that time. He only knew about Jon Arryn's investigation.

On 7/9/2022 at 8:42 PM, Hugorfonics said:

Stannis thought they'd get murdered, and he already makes it clear that Robert won't believe him. It may be a sorry excuse but he believes it.

It isn't even an excuse. Stannis never actually says that he left court because he feared for his life. He also never indicates he was afraid of Cersei. Instead, the implication is that Stannis left court because he was pissed that Robert didn't make him Hand and instead turned his better friend/brother, Ned.

On 7/9/2022 at 8:42 PM, Hugorfonics said:

No, that was Renly and Robb.

No, Stannis is the main guy to blame for the war. His information could have prevented everything, including Robert's death.

On 7/9/2022 at 8:42 PM, Hugorfonics said:

Define prevailing? KL is near civil war, Stormlands are at civil war (but KL isn't involved lol) and while the Riverlands and Winterfell is subdued (lol, not really) the rest of the north isn't, let alone Dorne IronIslands and the Vale. 

Joffrey/Tommen prevailed while Renly and Robb died. And Stannis is nothing but a warlord with a ragged army and a weirdo crown.

Of course, Tommen might fall, too, but not because of anything Robb, Renly, or Stannis do.

On 7/9/2022 at 8:42 PM, Hugorfonics said:

I think it's realistic writing, knowing Stannis' paranoia and the lack of his political skill. He's got other areas where his brilliance shines however, notably in battle command 

Stannis is a better politician than military leader. He is no bad general, but he is too cautious. The brilliance of his campaign in ACoK was 'political' in the way that he knew when to make use of his sorceress. How to use his limited diplomatic skills to draw some or Renly's men to his side, etc.

His campaign in the North is also more determined by political agendas - showing the Realm he defends the Wall, showing the Northmen he is fighting the Ironborn, etc. - than militaristic. Although he certainly does know how to properly plan and execute a campaign.

[Lee-Sensei]

On 7/6/2022 at 6:41 AM, frenin said:

Nah he couldn't the Tyrells going to whomever offered them a crown only made his neutrality more impossible.

Yes. He definitely could have. He just wouldn’t be allied with the Tyrells.