Ukraine #17: Is There Life on HIMARS?

[Werthead]

The OSINT sources are posting more and more shots of Russian equipment malfunctioning. Several Iskander-M missiles have exploded shortly after takeoff, and an S-300 AA system launched a missile that almost did a 180 and very nearly destroyed the launcher.

Some reports of Russian forces retreating in Zaporizhzhia. In particular, Russian soldiers are reportedly refusing to guard warehouses in HIMARS range. Russian warehouses have been targeted in that region and also in Donetsk, with Ukrainian forces looking to forestall a Russian advance through Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces attacked Dobryanka in Kherson Oblast and were defeated, with five Russian soldiers killed. Reportedly the attack was under-equipped, and the only tanks they had were T-62s which were easy targets.

Also highly significant: July 6th was the first day since 23 February when Russian forces made no advances at all on Ukrainian soil.

The Ukrainian flag has been hoisted over Snake Island.

 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Werthead

[Toth]

Meanwhile the German defense minister shot down a demand to send 200 Fuchs APCs to Ukraine saying we need them ourselves and the chancellor is saying that sending old Marder IFVs would be too much of an escalation.

I can't anymore with this SPD... what the hell are we doing...

[Luzifer's right hand]

1 hour ago, Toth said:

Meanwhile the German defense minister shot down a demand to send 200 Fuchs APCs to Ukraine saying we need them ourselves and the chancellor is saying that sending old Marder IFVs would be too much of an escalation.

I can't anymore with this SPD... what the hell are we doing...

Hoping that Ukraine is defeated and that they can get back to sucking Putins dick. Same as Austria. 

[Toth]

38 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Hoping that Ukraine is defeated and that they can get back to sucking Putins dick. Same as Austria. 

Well, in the forums I frequent the name Marsalek gets dropped occasionally when someone raises the question what Putin has against Scholz... -.-

For the most part I suspect crippling fear and responsibility avoidance instead of ill intent, but having listened yesterday to a speech of his where he's repeating the same "We act in accordance with what our allies say" mantra to every question in the same way he already did three months ago, I feel like he has really given up on even pretending like he stands for anything.

Also frustrated that the Greens look fairly burned out by now as the only ones who have consistently petitioned for more overt support and now it's only the CDU left sniping at the SPD at this point.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Toth

[Luzifer's right hand]

16 minutes ago, Toth said:

Well, in the forums I frequent the name Marsalek gets dropped occasionally when someone raises the question what Putin has against Scholz... -.-

For the most part I suspect crippling fear and responsibility avoidance instead of ill intent, but having listened yesterday to a speech of his where he's repeating the same "We act in accordance with what our allies say" mantra to every question in the same way he already did three months ago, I feel like he has really given up on even pretending like he stands for anything.

Also frustrated that the Greens look fairly burned out by now as the only ones who have consistently petitioned for more overt support and now it's only the CDU left sniping at the SPD at this point.

He delayed forming a goverment in the hopes that the pandemic would be over. Doing as little as possible while hoping that a crisis solves itself seems to be his style.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Luzifer's right hand

[Toth]

12 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

He delayed forming a goverment in the hopes that the pandemic would be over. Doing as little as possible while hoping that a crisis solves itself seems to be his style.

Who? Scholz? That... doesn't ring any bells. You sure about that?

[Maithanet]

Zelensky sounded more optimistic about upcoming counterattacks than he has in the past.  Perhaps Ukraine has finally been able to generate and equip the necessary reserve troops for a big counterpunch.  I certainly hope so.  I'm not military strategist, but everything I'm reading indicates that if the next big battle if fought outside Kherson, then Russia will have significantly more difficulties than they have in the Donbas. 

[Maithanet]

 

[Luzifer's right hand]

2 hours ago, Toth said:

Who? Scholz? That... doesn't ring any bells. You sure about that?

I remember that it took forever for them to form a government when the delta wave was ramping up. At least in the forums I frequent people assumed it was because nobody wanted to govern while COVID was still a thing.

[Werthead]

The Ukrainians have bombed a Russian outpost on the border of Kursk Oblast, a considerable distance behind the lines. Looks like they used small drones rigged with explosives.

Ukraine has also recaptured one of their own T-72B tanks which the Russians had captured near Izium in April.

As an addendum to that thread posted a few days ago, quite a few videos of Russian artillery and mortars "hugging" railway lines and depots, with the Russians developing a new tactic of firing next to railway lines and then using trains to scoot and shoot. However, Russia doesn't seem to have many railway guns, so the deployment and packing up is quite time-consuming, leading to some artillery and trains and track being destroyed by counter-fire.

Ukrainian artillery, after being effectively silent on a large scale for most of June, now seems to be coming back online as fresh ammunition and weapons arrive in large numbers.

Ukrainian forces are also salvaging more and more destroyed Russian tanks. Apparently they are finding many of them were destroyed with full crews.

From a couple of days ago, a really big Russian ammo depot in Kamaz was destroyed with pinpoint accuracy by Ukrainian HIMARS systems (the depot is in a fairly urban area and no surrounding civilian buildings seem to have been hit,but some were damaged by explosions from the depot).

That's also a key point worth noting: the Russians have been indiscriminately hitting civilian targets, but the Ukrainians have been constrained (in part by their international partners) from targeting civilian areas, which the Russians are aware of and have been using human shields and urban camouflage. The advent of HIMARS means that Ukraine can now hit targets inside towns and cities from huge distances away. This will be key if they want to retake lost towns and cities.

Reportedly these ammo dumps and equipment warehouses behind the lines have been hit in the last few days:

 

[Maithanet]

There is hope that this war is entering a new phase.  More accurate artillery will require Russia to store its ammo further away, which will reduce the amount of artillery they can bring to bear at any given point.  In contrast, Ukraine is getting more artillery and ammo from the west, which will allow their artillery use to increase. 

You can't expect Ukrainian artillery use to match Russia's in sheer numbers, but more accurate NATO guns should allow a smaller amount of artillery to pack more of a punch.  It's possible that if Russia's purported 15 or 20 to 1 superiority in artillery fire in the Donbas will be reduced to something more like 5 to 1, that might actually be a fairly even duel.  Reports were that Russia was being wasteful with artillery towards the end of their Luhansk offensive, attempting to target individual soldiers with artillery.  Even without a bunch of ammo dumps blowing up, there were plenty of military observers who didn't think Russia could keep that rate of consumption up for much longer. 

Obviously artillery will continue to play an important role in the war, but if there are generally fewer shells flying around due to destroyed ammo dumps and effective counterbattery fire, that is clearly advantage Ukraine.  Superiority in massed artillery has probably been Russia's biggest advantage in the entire war.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Maithanet

[Werthead]

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

There is hope that this war is entering a new phase.  More accurate artillery will require Russia to store its ammo further away, which will reduce the amount of artillery they can bring to bear at any given point.  In contrast, Ukraine is getting more artillery and ammo from the west, which will allow their artillery use to increase. 

You can't expect Ukrainian artillery use to match Russia's in sheer numbers, but more accurate NATO guns should allow a smaller amount of artillery to pack more of a punch.  It's possible that if Russia's purported 15 or 20 to 1 superiority in artillery fire in the Donbas will be reduced to something more like 5 to 1, that might actually be a fairly even duel.  Reports were that Russia was being wasteful with artillery towards the end of their Luhansk offensive, attempting to target individual soldiers with artillery.  Even without a bunch of ammo dumps blowing up, there were plenty of military observers who didn't think Russia could keep that rate of consumption up for much longer. 

Obviously artillery will continue to play an important role in the war, but if there are generally fewer shells flying around due to destroyed ammo dumps and effective counterbattery fire, that is clearly advantage Ukraine.  Superiority in massed artillery has probably been Russia's biggest advantage in the entire war.

Russian air superiority has also been a factor, but the US has now agreed to supply Ukraine with some of its more advanced AA systems. Whether those include the ones which have been specifically upgraded to deal with the likes of the Su-57 remains to be seen.

There's also speculation that Russia is literally running out of trucks, which is also why they've been deploying directly from the railways, which limits what they can do.

Widespread reports of a planned "operational pause" whilst Russia adjusts and reinforces for an offensive into Donetsk, some counter-claims that Russia has paused because of sheer necessity, and whilst they are paused the Ukrainians can go to town on them.

The tank thing is also important: it takes 9-12 months to train a Russian tank crewman, possibly more on the older tanks which don't have modern QOL improvements. Losing potentially 3-5,000 tank crew by themselves is absolutely horrendous and they cannot be replaced quickly.

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Russian air superiority has also been a factor, but the US has now agreed to supply Ukraine with some of its more advanced AA systems. Whether those include the ones which have been specifically upgraded to deal with the likes of the Su-57 remains to be seen.

Air superiority is definitely a factor, but it has been much less decisive in this war than expected because of the strength of Ukrainian air defenses.  Most people (myself included) thought that Russia would be able to destroy Ukraine's air force and gradually degrade its air defenses to the point where Russia can regularly operate jets at high altitude over all of Ukraine (or at least the eastern half).  That has absolutely not happened, and the fact that it didn't is a big part of why Russia is struggling to take territory. 

What Russia has instead is the ability to fly its planes over occupied territory with relative safety and to make bombing runs on the front.  But using planes to attack targets in Ukrainian held territory is still too dangerous, which has allowed Ukrainian artillery and logistics to operate relatively unhindered.  Difficult to overstate how important that is. 

Quote

 

There's also speculation that Russia is literally running out of trucks, which is also why they've been deploying directly from the railways, which limits what they can do.

Widespread reports of a planned "operational pause" whilst Russia adjusts and reinforces for an offensive into Donetsk, some counter-claims that Russia has paused because of sheer necessity, and whilst they are paused the Ukrainians can go to town on them.

 

It seems clear that Russia does not have the truck capacity to effectively run logistics for them away from railheads.  This is a big part of why the Russian advance is always so plodding.  It is very difficult to trap the UAF in a cauldron if you run out of supplies after a 5 mile advance. 

[Gorn]

Russian priest used the Holy Cleaning Bucket item from his inventory to cast the Armor spell on the bridge.

However, HIMARS is a +5 weapon.

[Werthead]

Any odds on how long it will take a Ukrainian band to make a HIMARS song?

In another splendid tribute to Russian military competence, they accidentally (cough) hit a Moldovan-registered tanker in the early days of the war. The crew abandoned ship, but the tanker was left adrift and has been floating around the Black Sea ever since, moving from Romanian waters to near Crimea. The Russian air force apparently attacked the tanker today to sink it for good and remove it as a navigational hazard. It remains defiantly afloat.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Werthead

[Wilbur]

LPR's main internet commentary man, "Murz", has an opinion about the Russian and separatist forces: "Our military can’t be satisfied with a second place at the mental disability contest."

Between the reports that the Russians have begun recruiting convicts into the infantry and this viewpoint on recent Russian/separatist force actions, the outlook for invaders in Ukraine seems...gloomy.

LPR Blogger Murz on Ammunition Stockpile Explosions • WarTranslated - Dmitri Masinski

[horangi]

4 hours ago, Gorn said:

Russian priest used the Holy Cleaning Bucket item from his inventory to cast the Armor spell on the bridge.

However, HIMARS is a +5 weapon.

Made worse by the fact that since Russia already killed all the HIMARS 10x over (along with the 1000 TB-2s), it must have been an undead HIMARS with a CR rating above their priest's Turn Undead channeling ability.  A chilling turn, and truly proof that the Ukrainian Nazis are following the Occult practices of their Wolfenstein namesakes. 

[broken one]

10 hours ago, Werthead said:

Russian air superiority has also been a factor, but the US has now agreed to supply Ukraine with some of its more advanced AA systems. Whether those include the ones which have been specifically upgraded to deal with the likes of the Su-57 remains to be seen.

I've read that Ukrainians are running out of Buk missles. The NASAMS systems that have been given to them are said to be inferior as they are semi-stationary. Probably they will put them near Kiyv and release a few mobile systems to move them to the frontline.

The AMRAAM rockets are NATO standard and there are plenty of them in stores, so hope the two given kits are just for a good start.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

17 hours ago, Toth said:

Also frustrated that the Greens look fairly burned out by now as the only ones who have consistently petitioned for more overt support and now it's only the CDU left sniping at the SPD at this point.

As much as I hate to say it, but this is the one field of politics the FDP has not been a total disaster. Strack-Zimmermann has also kept some pressure on the SPD consistently. 

Edited July 8, 2022 by A Horse Named Stranger

[SeanF]

55 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

As much as I hate to say it, but this is the one field of politics the FDP has not been a total disaster. Strack-Zimmermann has also kept some pressure on the SPD consistently. 

I read the reason the SPD are weak is because their supporters are older, and not confronting Russia is ingrained in them. Is that correct?