Ukraine #17: Is There Life on HIMARS?

[Clueless Northman]

Oh dear...

Quote

Ukraine must now take every possible effort to encourage future disintegration of Russia and affect the arrangement of spin-offs that would be favourable for itself. 

And Russia is trying to do the same to Ukraine right now. It's a bit risky to wish annihilation on countries you don't like, specially when they're nuclear powers.

Then, like Zorral said, I don't see it happening. The bulk of Russian territory is ethnic Russian or some tiny minority of less than 1 mio people, which has no serious way of becoming and staying independent - unless going crazy Chechen level. Most of the Caucasus up to Kalmykia could go, sure, but apart from that, only Tatars would be a significant minority (but would basically be a landlocked enclave inside Russia). And having Russian proper states declaring independence looks like pure lunacy - specially those beyond the Urals, they know they'd become satellites of China the minute they secede. Frankly, these people don't seem to have any grasp of Russian mindset. It didn't happen back in 1996, odds of it happening now are lower. Odds of this happening without a nuclear war are even lower, frighteningly.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Clueless Northman said:

hese people don't seem to have any grasp of Russian mindset. It didn't happen back in 1996, odds of it happening now are lower.

Everything you posted are my "reasons" -- but you are able to put them together far more coherently and specifically than I could.

This thinking that Russia is in danger of breaking up is on the same level that so many kept/keep going on about Putin having cancer, undergoing cancer treatments, so must do this in so many months -- projections without any facts.  He's not sick. Even Central Intelligence is saying he's not sick.

  Moreover if one has read only a little Russian history, as Montifiore's tremendous Romanovs, we know Russia's center has been in worse straits than this and didn't break up -- recall, the acquisition of Crimea, etc., came quite late in the Russian expansionist game, not until Catherine.

[broken one]

19 hours ago, Corvinus85 said:

Speaking of satellites, have the Russians used their own satellites in this war at all? Do they have satellites that go over Ukraine?

According to Jarosław Wolski (weaponry analyst) - about 40 satelites work for Ukraine, Russia uses 5.

Not sure if it would be accurate from technical pov, but it is kinda like Ukrainians see the whole ,,battle map,, in much better resolution.

[SeanF]

Amnesty International have made fools of themselves.  How else are Ukrainians meant to defend urban areas without utilising civilian buildings?

[broken one]

10 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Amnesty International have made fools of themselves.  How else are Ukrainians meant to defend urban areas without utilising civilian buildings?

Or where should they hide ammo depots, in the open steppe? 

I guess AI try to be unbiassed but it could not work well.

[SeanF]

4 minutes ago, broken one said:

Or where should they hide ammo depots, in the open steppe? 

I guess AI try to be unbiassed but it could not work well.

Trying to be even-handed, when there is a clear aggressor, is not a good look on any case.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

11 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

they know they'd become satellites of China the minute they secede.

Question is, how bad a deal they'd consider that to be.

Of the Russian soldiers dying on Ukrainian soil, those ethnic Asian Russians are overrepresented. Those are the poorest regions on top. So to dismiss the prospect of becoming a mere sattelite of China as sheer madness, I dunno if I'd sign up to that.

Luckily for Russia, those regions are not anything the Chinese have laid a claim on (unlike Taiwan) under the One China Policy. So fair chance, the Chinese will lean back and see how this unfolds, rather than encourage breakaway republics.

[Werthead]

15 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Then, like Zorral said, I don't see it happening. The bulk of Russian territory is ethnic Russian or some tiny minority of less than 1 mio people, which has no serious way of becoming and staying independent - unless going crazy Chechen level. Most of the Caucasus up to Kalmykia could go, sure, but apart from that, only Tatars would be a significant minority (but would basically be a landlocked enclave inside Russia). And having Russian proper states declaring independence looks like pure lunacy - specially those beyond the Urals, they know they'd become satellites of China the minute they secede. Frankly, these people don't seem to have any grasp of Russian mindset. It didn't happen back in 1996, odds of it happening now are lower. Odds of this happening without a nuclear war are even lower, frighteningly.

The people who are most heavily arguing that a breakup of the Russian Federation is possible or likely are Russians and Ukrainians, and to a lesser degree people from the Baltic States. It's somewhat arrogant for anyone from a western country to have a greater grasp of the "Russian mindset" then people who've actually lived with or under it for centuries. It's mostly western commentators, who have so far gotten almost everything wrong about this situation, that have been poo-pooing the idea.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

This is disturbing but believable news:

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

54 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

This is disturbing but believable news:

 

I think China would veto this. Also, hiw woukd NKorea/Russia get them there?

And N Korea sure as shit won’t be sending them with food/medical supplies etc, or any weapons worth a damn. So what’s Russia going to equip them with?

And when these N Korean solders find themselves outside N Korea, will they decide ‘fuck this’ and run?

edit: Also, N Korea hasn’t fought in a war in over half a century. No experience and probably little training. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

I think China would veto this. Also, hiw woukd NKorea/Russia get them there?

And N Korea sure as ahit won’t be sending them with food/medical supplies etc, or any weapons worth a damn. So what’s Russia going to equip them with?

And when these N Korean solders find themselves outside N Korea, will they decide ‘fuck this’ and run?

Any large scale reinforcements for Russia is bad news.

[Maithanet]

I'll believe that when I see it.  Sounds similar to the "tens of thousands" of Syrian troops that were going to come and fight in Ukraine (I believe the actual number was something like 200 troops, of questionable quality).  North Korea could not possibly supply 100k (or even 5k) troops across the world.  So they'll be relying on the Russians to do it, which Russia has really struggled with for their own troops, let alone conscripts from Korea. 

It is possible that NK could send a much smaller number of troops. But are North Korean troops going to fight effectively in Ukraine?  I doubt it.  They've never seen combat and their equipment is poor.  They would very quickly suffer the exact same morale problems as Russian troops.  What are they dying for? Russian imperialism?  Yes, they're brainwashed to support the Dear Leader, but he's not exactly in the next foxhole, he's back in Korea where it's safe. 

[broken one]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

The people who are most heavily arguing that a breakup of the Russian Federation is possible or likely are Russians and Ukrainians, and to a lesser degree people from the Baltic States. It's somewhat arrogant for anyone from a western country to have a greater grasp of the "Russian mindset" then people who've actually lived with or under it for centuries. It's mostly western commentators, who have so far gotten almost everything wrong about this situation, that have been poo-pooing the idea.

 

I think the idea of ,,cutting Russia along national seams,, appeared at the turn of XIX and XX century among peoples living under it. Piłsudski believed in it. He even went to Japan at some moment after the Russian - Japanese war to present the concept and get aid. The Japanese seemed to be cautiously interested and supported Polish Military Organisation (it did not cost them much, though). Piłsudski tried to implement the idea after the WW1 but it did not work out, for many reasons.

Some nazis also thought about it as far as I know (Rosenberg?) but Hitler said no. I think it was feasible then, like never before or after.

 Not sure how about now, but I am afraid there will be no long lasting peace until Russia ceases to be empire. Putin or Navalny, all the same. They have to fall as much as Germany after the WW2 to wake up. Just my opinion, hope I am wrong.

I think the main problem is most nations have left the prison already. Those who remained are bunch of tribesmen, poor, dim and indifferent. Xept for the peoples of caucasus maybe, but still there are too few.

Btw there is a Russian guy who lives in Poland, head of an illegal political party from Kaliningrad. He postulates secession from Russia and joining EU. The party consists of three angry men hidden in cellar, though.

[Derfel Cadarn]

4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Any large scale reinforcements for Russia is bad news.

The ‘source’ is apparently an Australian tabloid. I wouldn’t be worrying just yet

[broken one]

100k slave soldiers for grain  At least Russian TV will have something to play with for the next week.

[mormont]

I'm struggling to see what problems Russia have in Ukraine where the solution is 'greater numbers of badly trained badly equipped footsoldiers'. Unless Putin is going full Zapp Brannigan tactics, perhaps.

[Werthead]

Young North Korean men are chronically malnourished, to the point that they had to lower the height requirement to enter the NK army because so many were turning up at recruitment stations stooped and unable to engage in relatively moderate physical tasks. The general consensus for years has been that if North Korea ever fought a conventional war against the South (even without the USA), the South would roll right over them. That's why NK has been so desperate to develop nukes and missiles to dissuade conventional warfare.

I don't see 100,000 half-starved North Korean soldiers being any help whatsoever in Ukraine.

[Clueless Northman]

3 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

And N Korea sure as shit won’t be sending them with food/medical supplies etc, or any weapons worth a damn. So what’s Russia going to equip them with?

And when these N Korean solders find themselves outside N Korea, will they decide ‘fuck this’ and run?

edit: Also, N Korea hasn’t fought in a war in over half a century. No experience and probably little training. 

More importantly, I'd say N. Korean regime has no interest in letting 100K people leave the country, travel abroad and see how better life can be (or was, in the case of Ukrainian frontlines) there.

 

5 hours ago, Werthead said:

The people who are most heavily arguing that a breakup of the Russian Federation is possible or likely are Russians and Ukrainians, and to a lesser degree people from the Baltic States. It's somewhat arrogant for anyone from a western country to have a greater grasp of the "Russian mindset" then people who've actually lived with or under it for centuries. I

Yeah, Russians who hate Putin, I can surely see saying such things. Besides, you tend to assume me or Zorral don't know any Russian - or Ukrainian. The country has been united for more than 4 centuries, that's more than many others, and the last time it truly shattered was when Kievan Rus collapsed and was then mostly occupied by the Mongols. It didn't collapse during the Time of troubles, it didn't even collapse during the civil war back in 1919, it didn't collapse during the 1990s. It could collapse, of course, just like the US, China, India, Spain or whatever else, but that's quite unlikely - a few border provinces with basically no ethnic Russian could try, if not succeed, but having Southern Russia, Urals and Siberia all going their own way is wishful thinking. Actually, Kaliningrad would make the most sense, but even there it's very far-fetched.

As broken one said, it would've worked back in 1941-42, had Hitler had any sense. Many Ukrainians were happy to see the Russians and the Bolsheviks gone. Didn't last, because he had the utterly stupid idea to implement his criminal genocidal plans all at once without having actually won the war, so Ukraine slipped back towards USSR and there was no chance of tying to pick away some Russian provinces to set them up as independent countries.

[Zorral]

Once again you said it all more clearly and better organized than I could have.  

[James Arryn]

1 hour ago, Clueless Northman said:

More importantly, I'd say N. Korean regime has no interest in letting 100K people leave the country, travel abroad and see how better life can be (or was, in the case of Ukrainian frontlines) there.

 

Yeah, Russians who hate Putin, I can surely see saying such things. Besides, you tend to assume me or Zorral don't know any Russian - or Ukrainian. The country has been united for more than 4 centuries, that's more than many others, and the last time it truly shattered was when Kievan Rus collapsed and was then mostly occupied by the Mongols. It didn't collapse during the Time of troubles, it didn't even collapse during the civil war back in 1919, it didn't collapse during the 1990s. It could collapse, of course, just like the US, China, India, Spain or whatever else, but that's quite unlikely - a few border provinces with basically no ethnic Russian could try, if not succeed, but having Southern Russia, Urals and Siberia all going their own way is wishful thinking. Actually, Kaliningrad would make the most sense, but even there it's very far-fetched.

As broken one said, it would've worked back in 1941-42, had Hitler had any sense. Many Ukrainians were happy to see the Russians and the Bolsheviks gone. Didn't last, because he had the utterly stupid idea to implement his criminal genocidal plans all at once without having actually won the war, so Ukraine slipped back towards USSR and there was no chance of tying to pick away some Russian provinces to set them up as independent countries.

I agree that generally, w/e we think of other countries morally, there is no special reason they are bound to fragment any more than any others. Except right now Russia is engaged in a seemingly endless series of military engagements that they cannot sustain or afford indefinitely. Already troops are being pulled from other duties…duties which might help keep a country from fragmenting…to fight in the Ukraine. These are reasons why the risk of fragmentation is heightened. Still improbable, but a lot less so than if they were just maintaining.