Jump to content

Ukraine #17: Is There Life on HIMARS?


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

On a side note.

Zelenska is that one of the differences between Ukrainian and Russian? I would've thought her married name to be Zelenskaya.

 I think it would be Zelenska in both. Zelenskaya sounds like adjective or name of, for example, vodka in Russian, but rather not female last name. ,,Aya,, suffix in Russian female names may happen, though. But rather not in Ukrainian. It is complicated. In general, Ukrainian resembles Polish to some extent, especially vocabulary. And their ,,g,, is spelled like ,,h,,, it is very distinctive.

And no, Jarosław will not betray Viktor, I am afraid. There may (and should) be a prison cell at the end of the road for several prominent PiS members, so the guys will do what they can to stay afloat.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Maithanet said:

According to multiple credible people on Twitter this is a real video that the Russian govt produced and is actually promoting.  It really feels like satire.

Notice the "beautiful women" are 8 year old girls.  :ack: Did no one...notice that? 

EDIT:  This is safe for work, and is not gruesome or anything.  Just extremely bad propaganda.

Surely there is no way that is the original voiceover, right?  That has to be a satire.

<Checks...>

Holy smokes, that is real.  Whoever approved that voice talent has no ability to understand how native English speakers are going to hear that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Wilbur said:

Surely there is no way that is the original voiceover, right?  That has to be a satire.

<Checks...>

Holy smokes, that is real.  Whoever approved that voice talent has no ability to understand how native English speakers are going to hear that.

perhaps the Russian 'brain drain' is worse than commonly believed?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

According to aleksey arestovych, Russia moved hundreds of vehicles (5-7 btgs) into Kherson last night.  Russia is stripping forces from the Donbas.  He says Russia may even be planning an offensive in Kherson to push back the recent Ukrainian gains.  He says that Ukraine would welcome a Russian attack in Kherson, it would make the offensive easier if Russia wasted it's reserves.

So it sounds like the Russians are doubling down on Kherson.  Rather than retreating, shortening thier lines and daring the Ukrainians to attack them in Zaporozhye, they are putting more and more troops across the dnipro.  Obviously the Russians think they can effectively supply those forces.  I hope they are wrong.  But there's are signs that this coming campaign in kherson may be the final one of the war.  If Ukraine achieves nothing substantial, both sides may be too exhausted to do much of anything else this year.  And if Ukraine wins in kherson, after Russia has reinforced, that would be a bad sign for thier ability to control territory anywhere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, broken one said:

 I think it would be Zelenska in both. Zelenskaya sounds like adjective or name of, for example, vodka in Russian, but rather not female last name. ,,Aya,, suffix in Russian female names may happen, though. But rather not in Ukrainian. It is complicated. In general, Ukrainian resembles Polish to some extent, especially vocabulary. And their ,,g,, is spelled like ,,h,,, it is very distinctive.

And no, Jarosław will not betray Viktor, I am afraid. There may (and should) be a prison cell at the end of the road for several prominent PiS members, so the guys will do what they can to stay afloat.

 

 

Well, according to Wikipedia it is indeed a difference between Ukrainian and Russian. And Zelenskaya/Zelenskaia would be the Russian version.

Quote

Zelensky is a Slavic masculine surname.

Its Russian version (Russian: Зеленский) is romanized Zelenski, Zelenskii, Zelenskiy, or Zelensky, and originates from the toponym Zelyonoe,[1] meaning “green”; its feminine counterpart is Zelenskaya or Zelenskaia.

Its Ukrainian version (Ukrainian: Зеленський) is romanized Zelenskyi, Zelensky, Zelenskiy, or Zelenskyy. The feminine (Ukrainian: Зеленська) is Zelenska.

Its Lithuanian version is Zelenskis.

Notable people with the surname include:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy (born 1978), President of Ukraine

Olena Zelenska (born 1978), First Lady of Ukraine

Aleksei Zelensky (born 1971), Russian luger

Elena Zelenskaya (born 1961), Russian opera soprano

Igor Zelensky, Russian ballet dancer

Isaak Zelensky (1890–1938), Russian politician

Varvara Zelenskaya (born 1972), Russian alpine ski racer

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Well, according to Wikipedia it is indeed a difference between Ukrainian and Russian. And Zelenskaya/Zelenskaia would be the Russian version.

 

Ok, I stand corrected. In Polish it would be Zieliński and Zielińska, like in Ukrainian. The ,,ski,, suffix is not very often found in Russian surnames, more in Ukrainian and most in Polish o.c. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

According to aleksey arestovych, Russia moved hundreds of vehicles (5-7 btgs) into Kherson last night.  Russia is stripping forces from the Donbas.  He says Russia may even be planning an offensive in Kherson to push back the recent Ukrainian gains.  He says that Ukraine would welcome a Russian attack in Kherson, it would make the offensive easier if Russia wasted it's reserves.

So it sounds like the Russians are doubling down on Kherson.  Rather than retreating, shortening thier lines and daring the Ukrainians to attack them in Zaporozhye, they are putting more and more troops across the dnipro.  Obviously the Russians think they can effectively supply those forces.  I hope they are wrong.  But there's are signs that this coming campaign in kherson may be the final one of the war.  If Ukraine achieves nothing substantial, both sides may be too exhausted to do much of anything else this year.  And if Ukraine wins in kherson, after Russia has reinforced, that would be a bad sign for thier ability to control territory anywhere.

Pushing reinforcements into a city that is now very hard to supply would seem like stupidity to me, the kind of thing Hitler would have ordered, after 1943.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

According to aleksey arestovych, Russia moved hundreds of vehicles (5-7 btgs) into Kherson last night.  Russia is stripping forces from the Donbas.  He says Russia may even be planning an offensive in Kherson to push back the recent Ukrainian gains.  He says that Ukraine would welcome a Russian attack in Kherson, it would make the offensive easier if Russia wasted it's reserves.

So it sounds like the Russians are doubling down on Kherson.  Rather than retreating, shortening thier lines and daring the Ukrainians to attack them in Zaporozhye, they are putting more and more troops across the dnipro.  Obviously the Russians think they can effectively supply those forces.  I hope they are wrong.  But there's are signs that this coming campaign in kherson may be the final one of the war.  If Ukraine achieves nothing substantial, both sides may be too exhausted to do much of anything else this year.  And if Ukraine wins in kherson, after Russia has reinforced, that would be a bad sign for thier ability to control territory anywhere.

Apparently the last rail link over the Dnipro was cut last night, so if so, Russia is going to struggle to reinforce Kherson by rail. Supplies will have to stop on the other side of the river and be ferried across.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

Pushing reinforcements into a city that is now very hard to supply would seem like stupidity to me, the kind of thing Hitler would have ordered, after 1943.

This Kherson offensive has the potential to go very, very wrong for Russia.  Lots of troops packed into an area that is difficult to supply, difficult to retreat from and easy to break into isolated chunks... What could go wrong?

I would also note that Russian soldiers are on contract, and technically (if they're determined enough) they can quit and leave at any time.  If the supply situation gets bad enough, that army might just melt away in the summer sun.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

This Kherson offensive has the potential to go very, very wrong for Russia.  Lots of troops packed into an area that is difficult to supply, difficult to retreat from and easy to break into isolated chunks... What could go wrong?

I would also note that Russian soldiers are on contract, and technically (if they're determined enough) they can quit and leave at any time.  If the supply situation gets bad enough, that army might just melt away in the summer sun.

From your fingers to God’s ears.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Maithanet said:

This Kherson offensive has the potential to go very, very wrong for Russia.  Lots of troops packed into an area that is difficult to supply, difficult to retreat from and easy to break into isolated chunks... What could go wrong?

I would also note that Russian soldiers are on contract, and technically (if they're determined enough) they can quit and leave at any time.  If the supply situation gets bad enough, that army might just melt away in the summer sun.

This Kherson reinforcement movement sounds like orders came from on high to hold the territory no matter what, regardless of the reality in the field.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Corvinus85 said:

This Kherson reinforcement movement sounds like orders came from on high to hold the territory no matter what, regardless of the reality in the field.

Yeah, I'm guessing that Putin (having no military background) has no idea what the damage to bridges over Dnipro means, and that no one felt inclined to explain to him that it's not as simple as sending in more troops.

The recent failed Russian frontal attack on Avdiivka, the best-fortified Ukrainian stronghold in the Donbas, also looks like Putin's micromanagement to me ("why don't you just bomb it and charge at it?"). I doubt any Russian generals are stupid enough to order such an attack.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Otoh, a lot of people told, also in this forum, how hard it would be to storm a fortified and defended city while the Ukrainians were doing the defending. Isn't that even more true now? The Russians even have the advantage that Ukraine can't indiscriminately shell everything. From that point it could make sense for the Russians to try and hold this important city.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, kiko said:

Otoh, a lot of people told, also in this forum, how hard it would be to storm a fortified and defended city while the Ukrainians were doing the defending. Isn't that even more true now? The Russians even have the advantage that Ukraine can't indiscriminately shell everything. From that point it could make sense for the Russians to try and hold this important city.

True, but Russian morale will be lower, they’re not defending their home, and they’ll have to deal with a hostile population 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, kiko said:

Otoh, a lot of people told, also in this forum, how hard it would be to storm a fortified and defended city while the Ukrainians were doing the defending. Isn't that even more true now? The Russians even have the advantage that Ukraine can't indiscriminately shell everything. From that point it could make sense for the Russians to try and hold this important city.

Once the bridges across the Dnieper and Inhulets rivers are destroyed, Kherson is effectively isolated. The Russians can try to ferry some supplies across the rivers but that's a poor replacement for the road and railway connections they had before. And let's not forget that Ukraine has more boots on the ground. The Russians had more artillery fire power until recently but their "special operation" has suffered from a lack of infantry from day one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Russia launched an attack on Mykolaiv overnight but without decent artillery or cruise missiles, they had to use S-300 AA missiles in ground attack mode. They did zero damage to any military targets (they are not designed for armour or ground penetration), but they did do a lot of damage to civilian houses and infrastructure.

3 hours ago, kiko said:

Otoh, a lot of people told, also in this forum, how hard it would be to storm a fortified and defended city while the Ukrainians were doing the defending. Isn't that even more true now? The Russians even have the advantage that Ukraine can't indiscriminately shell everything. From that point it could make sense for the Russians to try and hold this important city.

The Ukrainians have HIMARS, which is so accurate that they blew up a military warehouse in Kherson in the middle of a housing area and didn't hurt a single civilian, reportedly. That can't carry on, but it shows they can be far more discriminate in targeting than the Russians.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Russia launched an attack on Mykolaiv overnight but without decent artillery or cruise missiles, they had to use S-300 AA missiles in ground attack mode. They did zero damage to any military targets (they are not designed for armour or ground penetration), but they did do a lot of damage to civilian houses and infrastructure.

The Ukrainians have HIMARS, which is so accurate that they blew up a military warehouse in Kherson in the middle of a housing area and didn't hurt a single civilian, reportedly. That can't carry on, but it shows they can be far more discriminate in targeting than the Russians.

It's not just HIMARS, it's all the modern artillery Ukraine got from Western countries, especially in combination with guided munitions like the M982 Excalibur. The Russians just don't have anything to counter that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Gorn said:

Yeah, I'm guessing that Putin (having no military background) has no idea what the damage to bridges over Dnipro means, and that no one felt inclined to explain to him that it's not as simple as sending in more troops.

I'm imagining many of the reinforcements milling around on the wrong bank of the Dnipro trying to look like they're doing something useful.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...