Ukraine #17: Is There Life on HIMARS?

[Wilbur]

9 minutes ago, Werthead said:

...Kazakhstan has been building stronger ties with China in recent years, although cautiously. China might not welcome a Russian invasion of Kazakhstan, but it would be hesitant to get too involved.

Come on Putin, open a second front!

[Maithanet]

8 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Kazakhstan has been building stronger ties with China in recent years, although cautiously. China might not welcome a Russian invasion of Kazakhstan, but it would be hesitant to get too involved.

Whether Russia would consider such an invasion and what China's likely response will be are entirely dependent on the manner in which the Ukraine war ends.  Russia is not going to be invading Kazakhstan before the Ukraine war is wrapped up. 

[Werthead]

23 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Whether Russia would consider such an invasion and what China's likely response will be are entirely dependent on the manner in which the Ukraine war ends.  Russia is not going to be invading Kazakhstan before the Ukraine war is wrapped up. 

Indeed.

The whole situation is bizarre. The new President of Kazakhstan is still an ally of Russia's, and called on Russian support to help suppress protests at the start of the year. He's not as full-throttled a supporter of Russia as his predecessor, but if his predecessor was 95% pro-Russian, the new guy is still like 80-85% pro-Russian. However, Russians in the Duma have been ramping up criticism of Kazakhstan, making frequent claims that they need to lookout for the Russian-speaking population along the border etc. They've also said it's too dangerous to allow the Russian space programme to be dependent on Kazakhstan's ongoing goodwill alone, and they should seize the Baikonur Cosmodrome (note that Baikonur is in the south of Kazakhstan and you'd have to take half the country first). Notably one person making statements to this end also started making similar statements about Azerbaijan and was censured and rebuked for talking about Russia's friend and ally Azerbaijan in that way...but not Kazakhstan.

I get the impression that this has only alienated the Kazakh government further away from Russia. They have also declined to send troops to Ukraine and have not recognised the breakaway republics. Invading Kazakhstan would be even crazier terrain-wise than invading Afghanistan (at least Afghanistan is relatively small), and Kazakhstan is fucking gigantic in a way that really boggles the brain (Kazakhstan is four-and-a-half times the size of Ukraine, and Ukraine is not a small country by any means).

[Loge]

Not quite sure that Kazakhstan has been all that pro-Russian of late. After all, they have announced that they'll switch from the Cyrillic to the Latin alphabet by 2025. Apparently, that decision was made in 2015. At least that's what Wikipedia says.

[Corvinus85]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Indeed.

The whole situation is bizarre. The new President of Kazakhstan is still an ally of Russia's, and called on Russian support to help suppress protests at the start of the year. He's not as full-throttled a supporter of Russia as his predecessor, but if his predecessor was 95% pro-Russian, the new guy is still like 80-85% pro-Russian. However, Russians in the Duma have been ramping up criticism of Kazakhstan, making frequent claims that they need to lookout for the Russian-speaking population along the border etc. They've also said it's too dangerous to allow the Russian space programme to be dependent on Kazakhstan's ongoing goodwill alone, and they should seize the Baikonur Cosmodrome (note that Baikonur is in the south of Kazakhstan and you'd have to take half the country first). Notably one person making statements to this end also started making similar statements about Azerbaijan and was censured and rebuked for talking about Russia's friend and ally Azerbaijan in that way...but not Kazakhstan.

I get the impression that this has only alienated the Kazakh government further away from Russia. They have also declined to send troops to Ukraine and have not recognised the breakaway republics. Invading Kazakhstan would be even crazier terrain-wise than invading Afghanistan (at least Afghanistan is relatively small), and Kazakhstan is fucking gigantic in a way that really boggles the brain (Kazakhstan is four-and-a-half times the size of Ukraine, and Ukraine is not a small country by any means).

Not to mention that Kazakhstan being in Asia would make such a move the biggest blunder one could make.

[broken one]

Not so long ago Kazakhstan asked Russia to send troops to protect the government from revolt.

Loss in Ukraine could make Russia even more determined to bring back order in the zone. To keep face etc.

Anyway, I hope Russia falls on face before this happens.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Azerbaijan has agreed to supply Europe with gas, bypassing Russia via the new Turkey-Greece-Albania pipeline. Rumours that Kazakhstan could be on the verge of defecting from the Russian camp as well and selling energy to Europe. Both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan previously agreed not to supply fuel to Europe, but both now seem to be openly defiant of Moscow.

Azerbaijan is kinda weird to read politically.

Apart from it being a corrupt cleptocracy, that has bought significant influence over the conservative parties in the EU parliament (Baku connections), anyway, as for the Baku Russia relations. I think this relationship is rather complicated. Russia has consistently been the protector of Armenia, and made sure the Azeris didn't go all out to liberate Karabakh. 

IIRC last time (2020), Turkey jumped in as Azerbaijan's protector, which signalled sorta break of Baku from Russia, or Russia losing quite a bit of sway in their supposed spere of influence. 

Edit/P.S.

Other former Soviet Republics have traditionally been more sympathetic towards Azerbaijan's position in this conflict. That includes Ukraine and Belarusk. Thus a lot of Ukrainian mercenaries fought in those conflicts for the Azeris. Anyway bottom line is, the Azerbaijan-Russia relationship status: It's complicated. To borrow a phrase.

[Kalnak the Magnificent]

Ooh, that's money

 

 

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, KalVsWade said:

Ooh, that's money

I'm pretty sure this is the second one Ukraine shot down. Another one went down back in April with specialised electronics equipment, worth over $100 million.

If Ukraine wants to really piss them off, they need to shoot down an Su-57. That's real dollars, right there.

ETA: It looks like an S-300 shot it down, which is curious because Russia claims to have destroyed at least three times as many S-300s as Ukraine has ever fielded (with the overseas donations).

[Maithanet]

Russian SU-35 also downed outside Kherson (no word on whether this was also friendly fire or if the Ukrainians got this one). 

From my limited understanding, S-400 anti-air/anti-missile systems are actually capable of shooting down HIMARs.  The problem is you have to be very quick on the trigger (they aren't in the air that long) and the Russian software doesn't understand what it is seeing with a HIMARs missile, so the operator sort of has to quickly identify that this missile is indeed HIMARs and then launch.  So it is quite possible that some of these S-400 operators are being given orders to stop the HIMARs and the result is some friendly fire incidents.  Yes, the Russians have IFF which should solve the problem (they wouldn't be crazy enough skip that step), but mistakes happen in a warzone when you rely on people to make life or death decisions in just a few seconds. 

Once the software update is put into the S-400 systems then the HIMARs will be less effective, but that could take a while (months) because updating software on the fly in a war zone is actually quite hard. 

[Werthead]

10 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Russian SU-35 also downed outside Kherson (no word on whether this was also friendly fire or if the Ukrainians got this one). 

From my limited understanding, S-400 anti-air/anti-missile systems are actually capable of shooting down HIMARs.  The problem is you have to be very quick on the trigger (they aren't in the air that long) and the Russian software doesn't understand what it is seeing with a HIMARs missile, so the operator sort of has to quickly identify that this missile is indeed HIMARs and then launch.  So it is quite possible that some of these S-400 operators are being given orders to stop the HIMARs and the result is some friendly fire incidents.  Yes, the Russians have IFF which should solve the problem (they wouldn't be crazy enough skip that step), but mistakes happen in a warzone when you rely on people to make life or death decisions in just a few seconds. 

Once the software update is put into the S-400 systems then the HIMARs will be less effective, but that could take a while (months) because updating software on the fly in a war zone is actually quite hard. 

Yup, that's why Ukraine is combining HIMARS attacks with local artillery fire and even Tochka U missiles, to overwhelm Russian AA defences.

However, it could be the Russians pushing their air force forward again after months of keeping them well behind the front line. With HIMARS devastating Russian ground artillery and stockpiles, they need airpower to take out the HIMARS or even just suppress Ukrainian forces. But that simply pushes them back into the firing line of Ukrainian AA (now augmented by German and American AA systems). And they're clearly not going to risk Su-57 stealth fighters (they have only have 12-18 depending on who you ask) on these kind of raids. So we could start seeing Russian Air Force losses start ramping up again.

[Werthead]

In 2020 Erdogan and Putin met and Putin kept Erdogan waiting uncomfortably on camera for two minutes.

Yesterday in Iran:

 

[Maithanet]

Also note the comically small table. 

[Corvinus85]

It looks like they met in a small hotel lobby with hastily assembled chairs and a coffee table.

[SeanF]

Lavrov says Russia has expanded its war aims beyond Eastern Ukraine.  Given that it’s nowhere near conquering Eastern Ukraine, that seems pretty ridiculous.

[DanteGabriel]

4 hours ago, Corvinus85 said:

It looks like they met in a small hotel lobby with hastily assembled chairs and a coffee table.

I gather the parking lot of Four Seasons Total Landscaping was unavailable.

[broken one]

4 hours ago, Corvinus85 said:

It looks like they met in a small hotel lobby with hastily assembled chairs and a coffee table.

Looks like a corridor on a sea ferry.

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

Lavrov says Russia has expanded its war aims beyond Eastern Ukraine.  Given that it’s nowhere near conquering Eastern Ukraine, that seems pretty ridiculous.

This was expected for a while. Russia has a sizeable number of forces recuperating outside Belgorod to the north and north-east of Kharkiv, and a new mechanised corps taking shape in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. Between the two forces, that's a pretty large force they could send to attack Kharkiv. Probably still not large enough to get the job done, but enough to pin down Ukrainian forces.

The Russians think a Ukrainian counter-attack is imminent somewhere along the line (probably Kherson) and they're trying to stay on the offensive and not flip over to being reacting to Ukraine's moves, because if they do, regaining the initiative may be tough.

[Wilbur]

These short films about life in Ukraine as the war continues give me hope for the future.

Who prepares and provides vehicles cars for the Ukrainian army? • WarTranslated - Dmitri Masinski

[Werthead]

The US military confirmed this morning that not a single HIMARS has been destroyed or even damaged by Russian forces, and claims to the contrary were ludicrous.

Apparently the US has modelled the survivability of its launchers in all situations based on their own shitty performance in the Gulf War, where even total air superiority failed to take out SCUD launchers in significant numbers, and the only reliable way to get it done was to send in special forces behind the lines (which was fraught with high risk). Russia enjoys neither total air superiority or even enough command of the situation to even risk sending in special forces, and Ukraine has so far deployed HIMARS very intelligently to avoid counter-attack.

Meanwhile, fresh volunteer recruits are being sent to Ukraine after having received just a week's training, maybe less.

Ukraine has resumed bombarding the Antonisvky Bridge in Kherson. About 50% of the bridge is out of action, forcing vehicles to use just one lane. Ukraine has also launched a huge drone strike on Russian forces at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Ukraine seems to be pairing or even trebling attacks on southern front, to keep Russia off-balance where the main thrust is coming. It also looks like partisan attacks around Melitopol are stepping up, and the partisans are feeding information to headquarters to guide HIMARS and drone attacks.

Also looks like Ukraine is pairing or even trebling drones to attack targets of importance, so the Russians have to destroy two or three targets to remove the threat rather than one. In a reasonable number of cases, the Russians fail to destroy any, resulting in either overkill or the Ukrainians then going after targets of opportunity in the area.

Also, the Americans have been assessing the combat capability of Ukraine's Su-25 aircraft and judged them comparable to their mothballed A-10 Warthogs, so there's no logical reason (not counting Moscow whinging) not to supply them with Warthogs. The meme may yet come to life!