UK Politics: the moment of truth, or possibly untruth

[Derfel Cadarn]

Johnson on the way out.

Starmer cleared.

A judge rules that thr Mail on Sunday defamed Prince Harry…

Not that paper’s best week!

https://news.sky.com/story/article-in-the-mail-on-sunday-about-prince-harrys-home-office-legal-claim-was-defamatory-high-court-rules-12648056

[Spockydog]

Meanwhile, Dan Hodges is reduced to tweeting some absolute bollocks about disappearing witnesses to the Kennedy assassination. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

According to the Guardian, support for Brexit is collapsing, and I'm sure if a referendum were to be held today Remain would win. But as to whether it can be reversed if Labour returns to power (or the next PM isnt as committed to it as Johnson), I havent been able to find a clear answer. I think the answer is yes, but it would take some time

[Zorral]

10 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

But as to whether it can be reversed if Labour returns to power (or the next PM isnt as committed to it as Johnson), I havent been able to find a clear answer.

How the EU would feel about allowing the UK back is also to be considered, and under what circumstances, agreements, regs and treaties.  As a while back some EU officials said entering and leaving the EU isn't the same as turning on and off a faucet, and once the UK exited, it can't expect that it can change its mind and return to previous status quo -- or even be accepted, for that matter.  The UK demonstrated very bad faith with the EU after all.

 

[Heartofice]

15 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

According to the Guardian, support for Brexit is collapsing, and I'm sure if a referendum were to be held today Remain would win. But as to whether it can be reversed if Labour returns to power (or the next PM isnt as committed to it as Johnson), I havent been able to find a clear answer. I think the answer is yes, but it would take some time

Not gonna happen

[Spockydog]

Have to agree with old frosty bollocks. It's never gonna happen.

The EU will continue, for quite some period of time, to make an example of us for everybody else. 

[polishgenius]

 

[Pebble thats Stubby]

7 minutes ago, Zorral said:

How the EU would feel about allowing the UK back is also to be considered, and under what circumstances, agreements, regs and treaties.  As a while back some EU officials said entering and leaving the EU isn't the same as turning on and off a faucet, and once the UK exited, it can't expect that it can change its mind and return to previous status quo -- or even be accepted, for that matter.  The UK demonstrated very bad faith with the EU after all.

 

re-joining the EU will take a long time and that's if they let us. It will not be quick or easy anyone demanding fast re-joining is deluded.   

There are several steps to go though and each one will need binding agreements the EU can trust we will keep.

step 1.  closer alignment of standards with the EU.  One agreement at a time.   we start with the most damaging ones we nuked.   this is the task of the next Labour government.

 

step 2  Do what Norway does.  hey the Norway deal was pushed as something desirable once.  Basically we say yes to every EU rule and don't get a say.   this means freedom of movement and goods.   this is going to be a hard sell.   and will be the aim of the "remain/rejoin government after the next one.

 

step 3.  Full re-joining  this means the Euro and no rebate.   sorry leavers fucked us here.   this will not happen until at least the 3rd pro EU government.  and only if we don't take lots of backward steps in-between.

 

 

This is why Stammer does not talk about re-joining the EU but making Brexit work.  Re-alinement is making it Brexit work and the first step to re-joining.

[Heartofice]

Making Brexit work, is not.. align more with Europe. The whole point of Brexit is to return democratic and rule making power to elected governments of the UK. Making Brexit work could well involve diverging more from Europe, but whatever happens the point is to have decisions made here and not somwhere in Brussels by people who were never voted for by people in the UK.

Thats why it’s not just ‘a hard sell’, it’s an almost impossible sell. Once you start saying Freedom of movement is coming back and millions of Eastern Europeans are coming over in a tiny space of time, just like before, you’ll soon see how much appetite there is for rejoining. 
 

That’s not even taking into account that as time goes on, the EU is going to need to integrate more and more to make the Euro work , and will become even less attractive to UK voters who value self determination, and issue with the Euro itself will keep cropping up, the next financial crisis will not be kind to Europe.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

25 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Making Brexit work, is not.. align more with Europe. The whole point of Brexit is to return democratic and rule making power to elected governments of the UK. Making Brexit work could well involve diverging more from Europe, but whatever happens the point is to have decisions made here and not somwhere in Brussels by people who were never voted for by people in the UK.

Thats why it’s not just ‘a hard sell’, it’s an almost impossible sell. Once you start saying Freedom of movement is coming back and millions of Eastern Europeans are coming over in a tiny space of time, just like before, you’ll soon see how much appetite there is for rejoining. 
 

That’s not even taking into account that as time goes on, the EU is going to need to integrate more and more to make the Euro work , and will become even less attractive to UK voters who value self determination, and issue with the Euro itself will keep cropping up, the next financial crisis will not be kind to Europe.

yeah whatever,

 

It might not be what you mean by making Brexit work.  it is however the only way it can work and we can reclaim some kind of decent economy in the next 50 years.   But don't worry your little socks off freedom of movement is not coming back until at least 7 years into a Pro Remain government probably much later and only if the will of the people is with them.    and hey if you are right its never coming back so stop panicking.

 

attitdudes need to firmly change at each step before moving on to the next.  the above I outlined is the quickest it could happen

[Heartofice]

Fortunately none of that is true. Being in the EU is not a requirement of a strong economy. 
 

We won’t be going back in, it’s just not going to happen. The sooner remainers understand that the sooner they can cheer up 

[A wilding]

Forging a "strong economy" is one thing, creating an economy that will satisfy the red wallers scared of "millions of Eastern Europeans are coming over in a tiny space of time" is entirely another.

And if you want to make Remainers "cheer up" then you must show them a plausible path to the sunlit uplands that the Brexiteers promised and that Johnson notably failed to even begin to deliver on (though I note that the official line is still that he was sabotaged by closet Remainers - I wonder how many decades it will be before that particular big lie is abandoned).
 
But, I agree that going back in is never going to happen in my lifetime. I personally am resigned to being a little less comfortable in retirement than I was originally hoping. And I am crossing my fingers that neither Mrs W nor I develop an particularly expensive medical condition towards the end of our lives.

 

[Zorral]

36 minutes ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

yeah whatever,

Yeah, the UK is weathering the current financial crisis so well, particularly the parts that have brought on by the grand success that is BREXIT.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I know I am sorta being petty, but I still very much like to read something from spokcy about Starmer not getting fined.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

57 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Fortunately none of that is true. Being in the EU is not a requirement of a strong economy. 
 

We won’t be going back in, it’s just not going to happen. The sooner remainers understand that the sooner they can cheer up 

Completely back in the EU? Maybe not. Closer aligned to the EU? That is looking likelier, from as best as I can tell, as the hardline Brexit position that was sold to the public is proving pretty incompatible with reality and a major annoyance for politicians. But it will take time for people to be weaned off the Brexiteers' lies because people go great psychological lengths to avoid admitting that they've been conned, scammed, and hoodwinked. 

[Spockydog]

27 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I know I am sorta being petty, but I still very much like to read something from spokcy about Starmer not getting fined.

Good luck to him. I still don't think he can beat the Tories. I hope he proves me wrong. 

And if an election is called next week, I will be out pounding the doorstep with my comrades, towing the party line, and giving Sir Keir my unequivocal support. 

[Werthead]

I think support for Brexit has dropped maybe more because people now consider it done, for better or worse, and are ready to stop talking about it and move on. Even some Remainers are in that camp.

I do believe that British voters are fickle - Johnson has gone from hero to zero in record time - so I can see them swinging back round in favour of rejoining the EU, especially if the future becomes as rough as it could and Britain going it alone as a mid-ranking power in a word with more authoritarian powers dominating instead as part of the economic superpower of the EU. We also have the issue that EU immigration was off-setting Britain's miserably low birth rate. Without that and with no prospect of native British births increasing in the near future (because so many people now consider it financially impossible to have a child), we'll be facing some very tough questions in another generation or so with an aging population leaving the workforce and not enough people replacing them. Most countries are facing that problem, of course. I think rejoining is a very long term possibility though.

One thing I didn't quite expect was some people who voted for Brexit abruptly blaming Brexit for the current economic crisis (Brexit is exacerbating it and helping make Britain one of the worst-hit developed countries, but it didn't cause it) and getting buyer's remorse.

Meanwhile, this is a mildly terrifying slogan and power pose:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CfwaYnDMXut/

[Spockydog]

 

 

[Heartofice]

1 hour ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

Completely back in the EU? Maybe not. Closer aligned to the EU? That is looking likelier, from as best as I can tell, as the hardline Brexit position that was sold to the public is proving pretty incompatible with reality and a major annoyance for politicians. But it will take time for people to be weaned off the Brexiteers' lies because people go great psychological lengths to avoid admitting that they've been conned, scammed, and hoodwinked. 

Possibly, only in so much as there are ways to resolve the NI problem that don’t involve the extreme steps the UK gov were planning. However, where I think we were right is that the EU will generally be forced to negotiate more seriously once they realise the other side are serious. That was a big learning from previous negotiations, it took a very hard line approach to get them to consider compromise. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

4 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Possibly, only in so much as there are ways to resolve the NI problem that don’t involve the extreme steps the UK gov were planning. However, where I think we were right is that the EU will generally be forced to negotiate more seriously once they realise the other side are serious. That was a big learning from previous negotiations, it took a very hard line approach to get them to consider compromise. 

Negotiate more seriously with the people who signed an agreement, told the electorate it was great (which in part led to then winning a big majority) - only to then declare it to be shit and want to change it?