Jump to content

The Winds of Winter: The Latest Info (updated 10 July 2022)


Werthead
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Magic might not work like you intend it, true

That was my point. Not that it would necessarily benefit Jon.

I can’t imagine given the scale and scope and heart of Martin’s writing that magic always works how it is intended. He work is full of unintended consequences, and I don’t see how magic is any different.

Edited by Lady Rhodes
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/12/2022 at 8:41 AM, Werthead said:

I suspect this is how GRRM arrived at his "might need 300 more pages" conclusion, he's looking at the finalised, ready-to-go stuff and how much more stuff he has in fragments, partials and drafts, and also where he wants the book to finish. He can't necessarily shove stuff from TWoW into ADoS if that's going to make ADoS too big, so he has to finish the book where he's planning, even if that makes TWoW ludicrously huge (and it has to be split later on).

Seven hells, I mean it's just supposition what you say, but you sure know how to make one optimistic. Even if that wasn't your intention.

I mean if he's looking at his finished Winds stuff and what he's thinking is already in the bag, and says he still needs 300 more pages from fragments, partials, drafts and still not written.. then it cannot be that terrible as in "5 years to never". And that is coming from one who's always thinking that it will definitely be published next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Shireen belongs to Stannis.

It is a kind of understandable desire to shorten the story by trying to come up with ideas how certain plot points could be merged so the plot takes up speed ... but that's not going to happen with the Shireen sacrifice. That will have nothing to do with Jon Snow.

Ha, so sure of yourself, are you?! Let's bet Lord Varys! Are you a betting person? :D I mean of course if bets are allowed on the forum. 

I say I'll start all my posts with "Lord Varys is never wrong" for 10 posts after we see for whom Shireen burns to paraphrase Hemingway if I lose. And you can say "TW is never wrong!" for 10 posts if I'm right (which as you can probably tell, is totally true :p)

Just to be clear: I agree with the ones who say Shireen will most likely be sacrificed to benefit a Jon resurrection by Mel because it makes a lot more sense bookwise where characters are located and how Stannis as a character is written as of right now. 

Of course, now I'll go and say a prayer to the Lord of Light...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, TormundsWoman said:

Just to be clear: I agree with the ones who say Shireen will most likely be sacrificed to benefit a Jon resurrection by Mel because it makes a lot more sense bookwise where characters are located and how Stannis as a character is written as of right now. 

No that makes actually no sense at all since there is literally no reason to assume that Princess Shireen is going to die in the near future. Nor is there any reason to assume that Jon's resurrection involves a sacrifice or any kind of big magical ritual.

Even more so literally no character would consider such a sacrifice at this moment. Stannis supposed to be dead, so Shireen is the queen now. Nobody will want to sacrifice the queen, least of all Stannis' followers. Melisandre won't believe that Stannis is dead because he is the savior which means he won't die. And nobody would ever want to resurrect Jon Snow.

People just came up with this bad fan fiction nonsense because of the show. Which is especially weird in light of the fact that George could have easily have Stannis take Shireen on his campaign so she be sacrificed like she was in the show ... just as the show could have killed Shireen in the manner you think it will happen in the books.

The show moved around Stannis killing Shireen ... it did not invent the notion that Stannis will kill Shireen. That comes straight from George. And it is most likely the reason why the show included Shireen in the show in the first place. She only showed up in season 3, after all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

I don’t think it’s far fetched to see Selyse & Shireen flee Castle Black headed for Stannis after Jon’s attack.  As someone that also thinks Stannis could potentially be the author of the pink letter (in the hopes of getting Jon to rally the wildlings to his cause), I still think Theon’s sacrifice could be orchestrated by Bloodraven with the goal of resurrecting Jon or helping Jon in some way.  Maybe the sacrifice somehow costs Stannis the battle and Jon will be the one who will come down from Castle Black and liberate Winterfell.
 

I also initially thought Lady Stoneheart was gonna resurrect Jon via the Red God magic but I think it will have more impact if the person she ends up breathing life into is Jaime.  The guy who jump started Bran’s 3EC arc by pushing him out of the window.  He also has been tied to Catelyn throughout the story.  She had opportunities to kill him but maybe his end game is ironically gonna be to protect Bran?

 

I know the changing hair color & funeral pyre are fan fiction.  It wasn’t something I expected George to do but I still hope Jon isn’t just gone be another Red God zombie.  I’d like to see some Northern Magic play a role in his resurrection. We’ve read about Bran having a vision of a sacrifice in front of a Weirwood tree.  Whether it’s to resurrect Jon or enhance Bran’s powers, I’d like to see the Magic of the Old Gods play a bigger part in the narrative.  Maybe it’ll be the warging into Ghost that will differentiate Jon from Beric & LSH?  And when Jon is resurrected, he’ll have full Warging powers?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Even more so literally no character would consider such a sacrifice at this moment. 

Eh, Melisandre literally would if she thought it’s important for the Lord of Light regardless of someone’s status. Totally would burn Shireen. Let’s not forget she’s the one who pushed for the burning of Edric Storm because there’s power in a kings blood, according to her.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Stannis supposed to be dead, so Shireen is the queen now. Nobody will want to sacrifice the queen, least of all Stannis' followers. Melisandre won't believe that Stannis is dead because he is the savior which means he won't die.

Melisandre unfortunately no longer sees Stannis in the flames and that’s a problem. She may eventually think he’s actually dead now that the letter has arrived. And I’m not even counting the fact that Mel now only sees Jon Snow every time she asks for Azor Ahai. She also famously remarks that  winter is here and she’s his last hope. That’s especially interesting when put together with the rest of the skull and death she sees in his future and his potential warging “man, wolf, man”.
To quote show Sansa: I think she may be a slow learner but that she eventually does learn.

I’m sure I’m not the first or the last person who mentions all these clues.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nor is there any reason to assume that Jon's resurrection involves a sacrifice or any kind of big magical ritual.

Mel herself says she’s much stronger magically at the wall and soon she’ll have no needs of props or weak magic. Such terrible magic she will do! It suggests and paves the way for a big magic moment. Martins no fool, if he builds up to something he won’t shy from doing it. And it’s difficult to believe Jon will just warg into a wolf and then warg into what body (?) if he’s physically dead? A resurrection by blood sacrifice (which Mel knows) seems a perfectly logical choice given the fact Mel has no idea of the Beric and Lady Stoneheart type of resurrection set up - which you favor.
 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

People just came up with this bad fan fiction nonsense because of the show.

Well… that’s just rude. It’s not bad fanfic nonsense. It’s simply speculation based on the books and foreshadowing and such while trying to reconcile the idea that Shireen’s death was confirmed according to Benioff and Weiss by Martin. By the way, you are doing too and no one tells you your “Patchface being important to the story because Mel feels ominous about him” for example is a silly or bad fanfic. I personally find that idea interesting because I don’t think he’s important at all and now I’ll probably try to reread some of the chapters and see if I missed something.

It looks like you feel strongly about your opinions but man, be more forgiving. It’s not like it’s a world problem situation here and we cannot speculate.

That said, this is way more than I wanted to engage in the topic of Shireen. It just seemed funny you seem to be so sure of yourself when Martin has just acknowledged once again that some things may be different than the show. Or become different.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Smoke317 said:

I don’t think it’s far fetched to see Selyse & Shireen flee Castle Black headed for Stannis after Jon’s attack.  As someone that also thinks Stannis could potentially be the author of the pink letter (in the hopes of getting Jon to rally the wildlings to his cause), I still think Theon’s sacrifice could be orchestrated by Bloodraven with the goal of resurrecting Jon or helping Jon in some way.  Maybe the sacrifice somehow costs Stannis the battle and Jon will be the one who will come down from Castle Black and liberate Winterfell.

I think that is quite far-fetched. The idea that Stannis could have written the Pink Letter is ludicrous. Nobody is going to rally to the cause of a king who is allegedly dead.

And, of course, a dead guy will come down and liberate Winterfell with an army of wildlings who will most definitely unite the North under Bolton rule against this turncloak freak.

Stannis left the wildlings at the Wall because he could not possibly use wildling soldiers against the Northmen.

11 hours ago, Smoke317 said:

I also initially thought Lady Stoneheart was gonna resurrect Jon via the Red God magic but I think it will have more impact if the person she ends up breathing life into is Jaime.  The guy who jump started Bran’s 3EC arc by pushing him out of the window.  He also has been tied to Catelyn throughout the story.  She had opportunities to kill him but maybe his end game is ironically gonna be to protect Bran?

I'm pretty sure Catelyn is not going to resurrect anyone. Instead, she will continue killing people. Although most likely not Jaime for some reason.

11 hours ago, Smoke317 said:

I know the changing hair color & funeral pyre are fan fiction.  It wasn’t something I expected George to do but I still hope Jon isn’t just gone be another Red God zombie.  I’d like to see some Northern Magic play a role in his resurrection. We’ve read about Bran having a vision of a sacrifice in front of a Weirwood tree.  Whether it’s to resurrect Jon or enhance Bran’s powers, I’d like to see the Magic of the Old Gods play a bigger part in the narrative.  Maybe it’ll be the warging into Ghost that will differentiate Jon from Beric & LSH?  And when Jon is resurrected, he’ll have full Warging powers?

Jon will be 'a zombie' in any kind of scenario. There are no spells that can bring back people from the dead unchanged. However, Jon's soul won't be diminished in the same way as Beric's or Cat's because it won't 'die' like theirs. It will be stuck in Ghost. And from there it can return to a changed, resurrected body. But of course that body won't be normal or unchanged.

10 hours ago, TormundsWoman said:

Eh, Melisandre literally would if she thought it’s important for the Lord of Light regardless of someone’s status. Totally would burn Shireen. Let’s not forget she’s the one who pushed for the burning of Edric Storm because there’s power in a kings blood, according to her.

LOL, yes, of course, Mel has no problem with blood sacrifices. But Edric was a bastard loathed by Selyse and Stannis, not Stannis' only child and heir. In what world would it make sense to murder the only heir of King Stannis?

Literally in none.

Most definitely not because Stannis is 'allegedly dead' nor to 'resurrect some dude you don't think is the savior of the world'.

Hell, even if Mel was suddenly in burning mode for some reason, there are many people she would burn first before even considering Shireen. Gerric Kingsblood, his three daughters, Fake Arya (once she arrives at the Wall), Theon Greyjoy, Rickon Stark (should he get to the Wall), Axell and Selyse Florent, etc.

10 hours ago, TormundsWoman said:

Melisandre unfortunately no longer sees Stannis in the flames and that’s a problem. She may eventually think he’s actually dead now that the letter has arrived. And I’m not even counting the fact that Mel now only sees Jon Snow every time she asks for Azor Ahai. She also famously remarks that  winter is here and she’s his last hope. That’s especially interesting when put together with the rest of the skull and death she sees in his future and his potential warging “man, wolf, man”.
To quote show Sansa: I think she may be a slow learner but that she eventually does learn.

Sorry, but Stannis merely may be dead. Jon Snow is dead. How does a dead Jon Snow cause anyone to think he is still important? Mel would think she misunderstood certain Jon-related visions.

10 hours ago, TormundsWoman said:

I’m sure I’m not the first or the last person who mentions all these clues.

Those aren't clues for a scenario where Mel sacrifices Shireen to bring back Jon Snow. They are clues that Mel is going to play a crucial role in the future, in connection with Jon's return from the dead.

10 hours ago, TormundsWoman said:

Mel herself says she’s much stronger magically at the wall and soon she’ll have no needs of props or weak magic. Such terrible magic she will do! It suggests and paves the way for a big magic moment. Martins no fool, if he builds up to something he won’t shy from doing it. And it’s difficult to believe Jon will just warg into a wolf and then warg into what body (?) if he’s physically dead? A resurrection by blood sacrifice (which Mel knows) seems a perfectly logical choice given the fact Mel has no idea of the Beric and Lady Stoneheart type of resurrection set up - which you favor.

Nothing indicates that Mel knows blood magic spells that can resurrect people. Mel is so far good at killing people, not at bringing them back from the dead. And we actually don't know whether Drogo was resurrected by Mirri's spell or if she merely was able to heal him from a wound that was about to kill him.

The obvious clues here are that Jon is a warg and thus will survive his own dead ... and the standard red priest funerals rites to occasionally bring people back from the dead. It stands to reason that folks will want to cremate Jon's body, and it would make sense for Mel to conduct the funeral rites. So we can expect Jon's body to suddenly come back to life amidst his own pyre which is about to be ignited.

Although we don't know if he will be able to return to his body as easily.

10 hours ago, TormundsWoman said:

Well… that’s just rude. It’s not bad fanfic nonsense. It’s simply speculation based on the books and foreshadowing and such while trying to reconcile the idea that Shireen’s death was confirmed according to Benioff and Weiss by Martin.

Well, if you want I can also call it bad speculation. I mean, sorry, that I don't find those ideas great, but I won't write that those are great ideas when I don't think that.

There is no need for reconciliation here. In the show Stannis burns his daughter, so we should expect that to happen in the books as well ... because it is the best narrative. There is no reason at all to connect the Shireen plot to the Jon Snow resurrection plot.

10 hours ago, TormundsWoman said:

By the way, you are doing too and no one tells you your “Patchface being important to the story because Mel feels ominous about him” for example is a silly or bad fanfic. I personally find that idea interesting because I don’t think he’s important at all and now I’ll probably try to reread some of the chapters and see if I missed something.

I also didn't think Patches was particularly important ... until Mel had that thought. But in light of Hodor's crucial importance for the plot it must strike as very careless to assume that the other strange lackwit who also happens to have prophetic powers of some kind won't play a crucial role.

In context to Shireen we also have Val rambling on about Shireen's greyscale being only dormant, indicating it might return and infect other people. That indicates that this plot will have to play out before Shireen can die. A bunch of ashes is not particularly likely to infect anyone.

The bad aspect of this speculation is the idea that because Shireen died during Stannis' campaign in the North she must also die roughly around that time in the books. And that's just a false conclusion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon will be 'a zombie' in any kind of scenario. There are no spells that can bring back people from the dead unchanged. However, Jon's soul won't be diminished in the same way as Beric's or Cat's because it won't 'die' like theirs. It will be stuck in Ghost. And from there it can return to a changed, resurrected body. But of course that body won't be normal or unchanged.

I actually agree with this wholeheartedly.

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, yes, of course, Mel has no problem with blood sacrifices. But Edric was a bastard loathed by Selyse and Stannis, not Stannis' only child and heir. In what world would it make sense to murder the only heir of King Stannis?

I am so confused in your logic here. You seem to agree in previous comments that Shireen will burn. I don’t understand how that can be reconciled with your above statement, especially when later on you agree that Stannis burning Shireen makes narrative sense (which I agree). Are you just in disagreement with the idea that the Shireen’s burning is connected with Job’s resurrection?
 

24 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But in light of Hodor's crucial importance for the plot it must strike as very careless to assume that the other strange lackwit who also happens to have prophetic powers of some kind won't play a crucial role.

I agree. If Hodor can be a crucial plot, anything seemingly innocuous could be open for speculation.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I am so confused in your logic here. You seem to agree in previous comments that Shireen will burn. I don’t understand how that can be reconciled with your above statement, especially when later on you agree that Stannis burning Shireen makes narrative sense (which I agree). Are you just in disagreement with the idea that the Shireen’s burning is connected with Job’s resurrection?

I think that was obvious. Stannis isn't there. So any follower/friend of Stannis' murdering his daughter without his knowledge or permission would do a completely unforgivable thing.

More importantly, while Stannis is presumed dead Shireen will succeed her father as queen. She will be the glue/symbol/person who keeps his movement together and alive.

If those people were to kill her they could just as well kill Stannis. It would be more or less the same thing.

This goes expecially for Selyse and Axell Florent. With Davos and Stannis presumed dead Shireen will be the new queen ... and they will rule in her name. Neither will have any inclination to murder the girl.

In context, it would also make little sense to have Shireen as a sacrifice in anything not connected to something Stannis wants to accomplish (for himself). Sacrifices have to hurt and/or be personal (think about Dany's sacrifices or Euron planning to sacrifice a brother, a lover, and an unborn child of his).

Shireen is nothing to Melisandre or Jon Snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I do not want covid, not even a mild case, so please be advised, I will be doing all I can to prevent that.   I will be masked almost all the time.   I will not be shaking hands, sorry.   Or even bumping fists.    You can take my picture when I am signing your book, but stay on your side of the table, please.   No selfies.   No hugs.   In past years, I was always glad to do all that, to make myself available to my readers, but these are not normal times.    Once covid goes away for good — if it ever does — perhaps I will be able to do all that again.   But not now.   I cannot get sick.   I have too much work to do.

I ask for your understanding.

And I hope all of us have a great time in San Diego, regardless of these challenges.

Current Mood: anxious 

 

this is kind of sweet (and completely rational of course) that he is this anxious about covid at comic con .... maybe (hopefully) he does live till 100 yrs old :) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sacrifices have to hurt and/or be personal (think about Dany's sacrifices or Euron planning to sacrifice a brother, a lover, and an unborn child of his).

I get your general premise here, but I think you are reaching to say that Euron “loves” anyone. 
 

thank you for clarifying your point, though. I do see what you mean. I guess my feeling is that Mel is obsessed with King’s blood and her main goal is not Stannis, nor has it ever been. Her main goal is defeating the Great Other. The only reason she is with Stannis is because she thinks he is Azor Ahai. If she believes someone else is, her allegiance is going to shift. I am not saying that her burning Shireen is in order to resurrect Jon, but for another reason she believes furthers her purpose against the Great Other. Now, about your point about sacrifice in blood magic requiring pain/loss/love, a few thoughts. 1)it is not clear how much of a sacrifice Edric would have been. Stannis was going to sacrifice him without much pushback. Stannis seemed to view him as expendable. Like a “oh, I guess that is unfortunate but oh well” and 2) Mel did blood magic with the leeches that possibly led to the deaths of Robb, Joffrey, and Balon. That power/magic did not require a substantial sacrifice. (Which also makes you wonder - if three leeches with kings blood did that, what can a whole body do?)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I get your general premise here, but I think you are reaching to say that Euron “loves” anyone.

I meant that he intends to sacrifice a woman he impregnated, i.e. fucked with. 'Lover' in that sense, not the other.

1 minute ago, Lady Rhodes said:

thank you for clarifying your point, though. I do see what you mean. I guess my feeling is that Mel is obsessed with King’s blood and her main goal is not Stannis, nor has it ever been. Her main goal is defeating the Great Other. The only reason she is with Stannis is because she thinks he is Azor Ahai. If she believes someone else is, her allegiance is going to shift.

Perhaps. But so far her allegiance doesn't change. She is mildly confused about seeing Jon Snow in the flames ... but she doesn't even suspect he could be the savior instead of Stannis. In fact, I don't think Mel of all people is going to see the error of her ways until they are obvious ... meaning only after Stannis has failed and is dead for good.

Mel is not obsessed with 'king's blood' - she just knows that there is magic in there and she can use it for spells.

1 minute ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I am not saying that her burning Shireen is in order to resurrect Jon, but for another reason she believes furthers her purpose against the Great Other.

There is no chance that she would do that in the position she is in while Stannis is presumed dead. It just makes no sense.

1 minute ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Now, about your point about sacrifice in blood magic requiring pain/loss/love, a few thoughts. 1)it is not clear how much of a sacrifice Edric would have been. Stannis was going to sacrifice him without much pushback. Stannis seemed to view him as expendable. Like a “oh, I guess that is unfortunate but oh well”

Edric wouldn't have been a big personal sacrifice, true. But still a close relation. The idea clearly is that a sacrifice has to have some connection to you, personally. And Edric was still Stannis' nephew.

1 minute ago, Lady Rhodes said:

and 2) Mel did blood magic with the leeches that possibly led to the deaths of Robb, Joffrey, and Balon. That power/magic did not require a substantial sacrifice. (Which also makes you wonder - if three leeches with kings blood did that, what can a whole body do?)

That was just a charade. I mean, it is so obvious. Do you actually think those leeches had anything to do with the death of the kings? Mel foresaw the deaths of Balon, Robb, and Joffrey ... and then staged that shitshow to convince Stannis that her magic works, that it can cause such things to happen. She wanted to convince him to allow her to burn Edric to work some real magic.

And, honestly, the softer side of Melisandre we see in her chapter makes it very unlikely she will ever be keen to sacrifice Stannis' only child and heir. She even kept Devan at the Wall to protect him for Davos' sake.

George has said that Melisandre is one of the most misunderstood characters in the entire series. This take many people have as this evil demoness who jumps on any chance to murder an innocent child ... is just wrong.

You can see how strange this view is when you ask yourself what exactly would be Mel's motivation at this point to sacrifice Shireen. There is no reason why she would consider something like that at this point.

If she wanted a blood sacrifice she would turn to Gerrick Kingsblood and his daughters first, then to Mance's child. Then she would go through the Starks and Florents she can lay her hands on ... before turning to Stannis' child and heir.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I meant that he intends to sacrifice a woman he impregnated, i.e. fucked with. 'Lover' in that sense, not the other.

Perhaps. But so far her allegiance doesn't change. She is mildly confused about seeing Jon Snow in the flames ... but she doesn't even suspect he could be the savior instead of Stannis. In fact, I don't think Mel of all people is going to see the error of her ways until they are obvious ... meaning only after Stannis has failed and is dead for good.

Mel is not obsessed with 'king's blood' - she just knows that there is magic in there and she can use it for spells.

There is no chance that she would do that in the position she is in while Stannis is presumed dead. It just makes no sense.

Edric wouldn't have been a big personal sacrifice, true. But still a close relation. The idea clearly is that a sacrifice has to have some connection to you, personally. And Edric was still Stannis' nephew.

That was just a charade. I mean, it is so obvious. Do you actually think those leeches had anything to do with the death of the kings? Mel foresaw the deaths of Balon, Robb, and Joffrey ... and then staged that shitshow to convince Stannis that her magic works, that it can cause such things to happen. She wanted to convince him to allow her to burn Edric to work some real magic.

And, honestly, the softer side of Melisandre we see in her chapter makes it very unlikely she will ever be keen to sacrifice Stannis' only child and heir. She even kept Devan at the Wall to protect him for Davos' sake.

George has said that Melisandre is one of the most misunderstood characters in the entire series. This take many people have as this evil demoness who jumps on any chance to murder an innocent child ... is just wrong.

You can see how strange this view is when you ask yourself what exactly would be Mel's motivation at this point to sacrifice Shireen. There is no reason why she would consider something like that at this point.

If she wanted a blood sacrifice she would turn to Gerrick Kingsblood and his daughters first, then to Mance's child. Then she would go through the Starks and Florents she can lay her hands on ... before turning to Stannis' child and heir.

Re: Euron - fair point.

RE: king’s blood - so there has to be a relationship. Would you entertain the thought that perhaps the potency of the magic is correlated to the potency of the relationship?

re: leeches - well…I suppose it depends on how you view things. I can see your argument against and you provide good points- if Mel foresaw the deaths and wanted to create an illusion of power. She certainly explains she is not above illusions during her chapter. However, the leeches are part of the whole “power of king’s blood” arc. The arc falls apart without that but of foreshadowing. Now, if your argument is that it is supposed to fall apart because there is no power in king’s blood, fair. But if you do believe there is power in king’s blood, I think we have to admit that the leeches in someway affected/influenced the chain of events. Perhaps made the plans for the assasinations “worked” in the bad luck sense - put Balon on the bridge at the right time, ensured that the correct poison got to Olenna, ensured Robb’s men really wanted to get drunk. You get the idea. 
 

re: Mel’s intentions - I don’t think she is inherently evil. As I said before, she is deeply concerned with the Great Other - and if the Great Other is related/affiliated with the Others, then she is right to be concerned! When faced with an existential threat such as the Others, though, what methods and measures is she going to deem necessary? I think GRRM’s arc or part of the arc he intends for Mel is the question “do the ends justify the means?”

Edited by Lady Rhodes
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

RE: king’s blood - so there has to be a relationship. Would you entertain the thought that perhaps the potency of the magic is correlated to the potency of the relationship?

That might play a role there.

But the Shireen sacrifice for Stannis will clearly and obviously mimic Azor Ahai sacrifice of Nissa Nissa. Perhaps not to create a weirdo magic sword but to accomplish something they will believe the savior can only do via such a sacrifice modelled on the legendary hero.

So far Stannis didn't do such a sacrifice.

32 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

re: leeches - well…I suppose it depends on how you view things. I can see your argument against and you provide good points- if Mel foresaw the deaths and wanted to create an illusion of power. She certainly explains she is not above illusions during her chapter. However, the leeches are part of the whole “power of king’s blood” arc. The arc falls apart without that but of foreshadowing. Now, if your argument is that it is supposed to fall apart because there is no power in king’s blood, fair.

Well, there is no power in 'king's blood' as such but in the Targaryen blood, the blood of the dragon. Mel thinks Stannis is the savior because he has a Targaryen grandmother.

But sacrifices also work if you don't have this special blood - as Alester Florent's sacrifice showed. And Mirri's sacrifice. And presumably also Euron's big spell.

32 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

But if you do believe there is power in king’s blood, I think we have to admit that the leeches in someway affected/influenced the chain of events. Perhaps made the plans for the assasinations “worked” in the bad luck sense - put Balon on the bridge at the right time, ensured that the correct poison got to Olenna, ensured Robb’s men really wanted to get drunk. You get the idea.

No, the idea there just is that Mel staged this charade to set up the actual sacrifice she wanted to do. Edric's sacrifice would have accomplished something (in her mind, at least). The leeches didn't do anything.

32 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

re: Mel’s intentions - I don’t think she is inherently evil. As I said before, she is deeply concerned with the Great Other - and if the Great Other is related/affiliated with the Others, then she is right to be concerned! When faced with an existential threat such as the Others, though, what methods and measures is she going to deem necessary? I think GRRM’s arc or part of the arc he intends for Mel is the question “do the ends justify the means?”

Sure, but that's something for a much later time. So far the Others aren't knocking at the door of the Wall, right? And even if they did - she would first try something else before turning the Stannis' daughter. And not without his permission.

In fact, that sacrifice only makes sense in a context where Shireen is very likely to die in any case, i.e. when the situation is very dire, the Others are about to break through, etc.

Or perhaps when Shireen is already dying of resurfaced greyscale. Not arbitrarily at this point in the story.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, there is no power in 'king's blood' as such but in the Targaryen blood, the blood of the dragon. Mel thinks Stannis is the savior because he has a Targaryen grandmother.

Then what is the purpose of switching Gilly and Mance’s baby? Wasn’t it to avoid such a thing?

 

24 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But the Shireen sacrifice for Stannis will clearly and obviously mimic Azor Ahai sacrifice of Nissa Nissa

I agree that it mimics it but I don’t in any way, shape, or form think Stannis is Azor Ahai.

 

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The leeches didn't do anything.

Time will tell with this, I suppose but I am inclined to disagree.

 

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but that's something for a much later time. So far the Others aren't knocking at the door of the Wall, right?

I would argue that after the Fist and what they heard at Hardhome, they are definitely closing in. BUT I will say this - I don’t think Shireen burning has to happen soon. I am willing to entertain the possibility her resurrection is affiliated with Jon, but I am not married to the idea. It could happen far closer to the end of the book or the whole series. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Then what is the purpose of switching Gilly and Mance’s baby? Wasn’t it to avoid such a thing?

That was Jon and Aemon developing the weird notion that Stannis and Mel would burn Aemon and Mance's son based on beliefs about their blood. They are not Melisandre, though, so they don't know how she picks the folks she likes to burn.

It is actually pretty noteworthy that not once in ADwD do Mel or her followers at the Wall raise the point of burning somebody.

50 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I agree that it mimics it but I don’t in any way, shape, or form think Stannis is Azor Ahai.

That doesn't really matter. Melisandre thinks he is, and Stannis himself may eventually believe it, too. And the mythical figure did some weirdo blood sacrifice to get a magical weapon, so Stannis might as well. In fact, everybody who believes he or she is the prophesied savior might do something like that (Dany excluded, of course, since she already did that back at the end of AGoT).

50 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Time will tell with this, I suppose but I am inclined to disagree.

Reread the passage in Mel's chapter where she thinks about the powders in her chest. One of those is can change the colors of flame ... and then reread the leeches ritual. It is blatantly obvious that this thing was no genuine magic.

50 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I would argue that after the Fist and what they heard at Hardhome, they are definitely closing in. BUT I will say this - I don’t think Shireen burning has to happen soon. I am willing to entertain the possibility her resurrection is affiliated with Jon, but I am not married to the idea. It could happen far closer to the end of the book or the whole series. 

Sure, they did stuff. But no attack of the Wall so far, not even a gigantic wight army assembling north of the Wall. Right now there is literally no pressure to try something extreme.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

It is actually pretty noteworthy that not once in ADwD do Mel or her followers at the Wall raise the point of burning somebody.

They burn Lord of Bones, disguised as Mance

I don’t see how you can justify re:Gilly baby and Aemon as Jon and Aemon being paranoid. We know that they have no reason to be paranoid because Melisandre DID do it with the leeches. Regardless of whether it was a charade or not, she is spouting off about king’s blood and THEY think she has the power and inclination, so I wouldn’t characterize them as paranoid, but cautious.

And for the record, again I am stating that I don’t think Melisandre is evil. I think she is focused on what she perceives as the greater harm and that the means - however tragic and terrible they may be - justify the ends if it stops humanity from being eradicated. Isn’t that the whole point of the Edric/Davos/Melisandre arc? Stannis says to Davos what is the life one boy against a kingdom and Davos says “Everything.” It is the push pull of ends justifying means.

also, while you are correct about a lot of Melisandre’s charades, she did birth two shadow demons to kill the person holding Storms End (name escapes me) and Renly, so it is not all charade.

Edited by Lady Rhodes
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The leeches didn't do anything.

They killed the kings. But they did not interrupt the lines of succession, leaving Stannis politically pretty much in the same place as before.

Quote

“You swore it would work.” The king looked angry.

“It will … and it will not.”

“Which?”

“Both.”

The ritual accomplished precisely what it was for, but close to nothing to improve Stannis’ cause. Presumably, a stronger spell could have eradicated all three kingships with lasting effect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

They burn Lord of Bones, disguised as Mance

Yes, but not as a sacrifice but to conceal that the guy they burn isn't Mance. Ashes don't have a face.

And Mel is pretty relieved that they guy didn't burn alive, after all.

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I don’t see how you can justify re:Gilly baby and Aemon as Jon and Aemon being paranoid. We know that they have no reason to be paranoid because Melisandre DID do it with the leeches. Regardless of whether it was a charade or not, she is spouting off about king’s blood and THEY think she has the power and inclination, so I wouldn’t characterize them as paranoid, but cautious.

They are paranoid in the sense that, so far, nobody wanted to burn anyone as a sacrifice at the Wall, most definitely not Aemon or Mance's son. In fact, Mel repeatedly says that the baby is their hostage against Mance's good behavior who they use as an operative in the whole Arya scheme.

Jon effectively killed Maester Aemon when he sent him to Oldtown. And not for a good reason.

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

And for the record, again I am stating that I don’t think Melisandre is evil. I think she is focused on what she perceives as the greater harm and that the means - however tragic and terrible they may be - justify the ends if it stops humanity from being eradicated. Isn’t that the whole point of the Edric/Davos/Melisandre arc? Stannis says to Davos what is the life one boy against a kingdom and Davos says “Everything.” It is the push pull of ends justifying means.

Well, the Edric sacrifice was pointless and evil because Stannis is just an ambitious prick who thinks he is entitled to a throne. Gaining that by murdering your own nephew (be it Edric or Cersei's children) is just monstrous ... ditto murdering your own brother with foul sorcery.

The Shireen sacrifice will likely be a more ambiguous thing since the stakes will be higher. Nobody is going to do that for an ugly throne but to try to save mankind from the zombie and ice demon army.

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

also, while you are correct about a lot of Melisandre’s charades, she did birth two shadow demons to kill the person holding Storms End (name escapes me) and Renly, so it is not all charade.

Sure. Melisandre is a genuine sorceress. But she is not above using trickery and charlatanry if it helps her cause. That's actual part of her brilliance ... why go through all the pain and grief of actual magics (which are very painful as Mel herself remarks on) if some special effects can do the trick just as well?

I mean, seriously, I don't doubt that curses might work in this world. But no leeches are going to cause the Red Wedding, ensure the Faceless Men do their job right, or provide an old schemer with the correct poison retroactively (Olenna decided to murder Joff long before the leeches thing).

42 minutes ago, Roughspun said:

They killed the kings. But they did not interrupt the lines of succession, leaving Stannis politically pretty much in the same place as before.

The ritual accomplished precisely what it was for, but close to nothing to improve Stannis’ cause. Presumably, a stronger spell could have eradicated all three kingships with lasting effect.

LOL, no. Mel just foresaw the deaths of those kings and convinced Stannis that they were her doing. There is nothing magical in the deaths of those kings, and no spell could ever eradicate those kingships because magic doesn't really control the minds of people to that level. Nobody would ever make Stannis their king ... not even if all of Cersei's children were dead. They would find some other pretender.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...