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The Winds of Winter: The Latest Info (updated 10 July 2022)


Werthead
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I’m not sure why the need of a literal definition for “sacrifice” is part of this discussion. You can’t claim a relationship is necessary, then list all the other options at the wall that will come logically before Shireen. There are any number of reasons Mel could have for burning the girl, and the fact that Jon’s resurrection is low on the list does not rule out that his resurrection could very well be high on the list of possible effects. 
 

I think desperation is the key here. And there could be any number of desperation moments coming soon. 
 

Now, that said, I believe you are correct in assuming Mel does not burn Shireen without Stannis stamp of approval, and that Jon’s rebirth will be unrelated. But I refuse to be so callous and dismissive of the idea. 

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14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, but not as a sacrifice but to conceal that the guy they burn isn't Mance. Ashes don't have a face.

And Mel is pretty relieved that they guy didn't burn alive, after all.

I think you are reaching. I don’t think Mel rejoices in burning but feels it necessary. And whether it is Mance or Lord of Bones, it was still burning someone.

 

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, the Edric sacrifice was pointless and evil because Stannis is just an ambitious prick who thinks he is entitled to a throne. Gaining that by murdering your own nephew (be it Edric or Cersei's children) is just monstrous ... ditto murdering your own brother with foul sorcery.

The Shireen sacrifice will likely be a more ambiguous thing since the stakes will be higher. Nobody is going to do that for an ugly throne but to try to save mankind from the zombie and ice demon army.

Completely agree with your sentiment that Stannis is a prick and the sorcery to murder Renly to get the iron throne shows the depths of his depravity. His ambition - that he disguises as simply fighting for his rights - is sending him further into depths of hell. Not necessarily directed at you, @Lord Varys, but to others who don’t see the difference between Stannis’ motivations versus Melisandre’s: Stannis was pissed about Robert giving Storms End to Renly after the rebellion, he lives Shireen but is angry he doesn’t have a son, he wants to be the fabled Last Hero to save mankind so he will finally get the praise he is due…there is more to his quest that simply “wanting his rights”.  There is a selfish bent to them, which I do not think is in Melisandre. She earnestly feels she is doing the right thing to protect humanity. 
 

Also, Final thought re: Stannis. We keep hearing how he will break before he bends. I think that foreshadows how sacrificing Shireen is going to cause him to ultimately fail and realize the depths he has sunk, hence “breaking”.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Melisandre is a genuine sorceress. But she is not above using trickery and charlatanry if it helps her cause

I don’t doubt it either, but I hesitate to say that it did not play a roll at all.

 

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45 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I think you are reaching. I don’t think Mel rejoices in burning but feels it necessary. And whether it is Mance or Lord of Bones, it was still burning someone.

Sure, but not as a sacrifice. It was an execution and the method was obviously chosen to ensure that nobody realized they didn't burn Mance, after all.

45 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Completely agree with your sentiment that Stannis is a prick and the sorcery to murder Renly to get the iron throne shows the depths of his depravity. His ambition - that he disguises as simply fighting for his rights - is sending him further into depths of hell. Not necessarily directed at you, @Lord Varys, but to others who don’t see the difference between Stannis’ motivations versus Melisandre’s: Stannis was pissed about Robert giving Storms End to Renly after the rebellion, he lives Shireen but is angry he doesn’t have a son, he wants to be the fabled Last Hero to save mankind so he will finally get the praise he is due…there is more to his quest that simply “wanting his rights”.  There is a selfish bent to them, which I do not think is in Melisandre. She earnestly feels she is doing the right thing to protect humanity.

Actually in the books there is no indication that Stannis loves Shireen. So far they never once interacted nor did Stannis ever talk about his daughter in a meaningful way. She is the only heir left he has, of course ... but only because he murdered Renly. And back when he made him his offer he intended to name Renly his heir, so he didn't care much about Shireen then.

But then - Stannis is also not obsessed with having a son. If he was, he and Selyse would still have sex.

And while Stannis certainly wants the throne very much ... he doesn't want to be the savior of mankind. But he may end up believing that he is. So far he doesn't really buy that narrative, either - but he does believe that somebody has to fight the Others. He had that one vision in the flames and that convinced him that this was important.

45 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Also, Final thought re: Stannis. We keep hearing how he will break before he bends. I think that foreshadows how sacrificing Shireen is going to cause him to ultimately fail and realize the depths he has sunk, hence “breaking”.

Sure enough. That's another reason why Stannis will be the one to sacrifice Shireen. I expect the show did get one thing right about that - namely, that Stannis but an empty broken shell after the deed. He will basically die with Shireen.

But the circumstances will be completely different.

45 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I don’t doubt it either, but I hesitate to say that it did not play a roll at all.

The leeches were not genuine sorcery. That was just a show with special effects.

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48 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

while Stannis certainly wants the throne very much ... he doesn't want to be the savior of mankind

That’s my point - he isn’t doing it altruistically. He is doing it as a way to gain support for the throne.

 

49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I expect the show did get one thing right about that - namely, that Stannis but an empty broken shell after the deed. He will basically die with Shireen.

But the circumstances will be completely different.

Agree. I don’t expect him to die in battle or at the hands of Brienne of Tarth.

and we will see with time who is right with the leeches :)

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On 7/17/2022 at 10:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

I think that is quite far-fetched. The idea that Stannis could have written the Pink Letter is ludicrous. Nobody is going to rally to the cause of a king who is allegedly dead.

And, of course, a dead guy will come down and liberate Winterfell with an army of wildlings who will most definitely unite the North under Bolton rule against this turncloak freak.

Stannis left the wildlings at the Wall because he could not possibly use wildling soldiers against the Northmen.

 

First, you  rule out the wildlings & Mel sacrificing Shireen but then call my idea of Selyse & Shireen fleeing the chaos at Castle Black far fetched.  Well Shireen has to get to Stannis in order to be sacrificed right?  Maybe it won’t happen that way but I don’t think it’s far fetched at all.

And maybe only them escaping, and not Mel, is what leads to Stannis sacrificing Shireen in some last ditch effort because he doesn’t have his spiritual advisor and all he know’s is “king’s blood” works and those damn crows will probably be squawking “King” in his ear.

I also think the pink letter fits into Stannis’ storyline very well.  If he sent the pink letter in the hopes of getting Jon & the wildlings off the sidelines and into the fight, then in a way he would be indirectly responsible for Jon’s murder by sending him the bogus letter.  It could be very karmic that the pink letter, if written by Stannis, ends up being the thing that caused his wife and daughter to flee to him in the middle of his desperate military situation and ultimately placing her on site to be a sacrificial candidate.  Justin Massey will probably hide Asha (his 1st choice) and he’ll turn to Shireen out of desperation  

I’m gonna re-read Theon & Asha’s chapters from Winds.  I feel like Theon being sacrificed is gonna coincide with Jon’s resurrection or his spirit and body reuniting.  Or it could likely happen at the same time or cause something bad happening for Stannis’ cause.  Like maybe the Karstarks escaping while he’s out on the island sacrificing Theon?   Then maybe Stannis, frustrated by the Old Gods not helping his cause with Theon’s sacrifice, returns later and burns Shireen along with the Weirwood.  
 

I could see all of this happening in the first 3rd of Winds.  Basically, showing Stannis’ situation spiraling downward from the pink letter to him burning his daughter.  The Weirwoods have eyes and the North Remembers.  They remember Stannis & Mel burning weirwood trees.  Plus they know he’s not the real promised one.  It’s time for the Old Gods & the North to put this false Southern pretender down and make way for the truly promised King in the North who gonna lead mankind’s defense against the Others.

 

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55 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

First, you  rule out the wildlings & Mel sacrificing Shireen but then call my idea of Selyse & Shireen fleeing the chaos at Castle Black far fetched.  Well Shireen has to get to Stannis in order to be sacrificed right?  Maybe it won’t happen that way but I don’t think it’s far fetched at all.

Wasn't the basis for the speculation the idea that Stannis wrote the Pink Letter as some kind of code to cause Jon to do something? That is something I must call waaay out there. The very idea is ridiculous. The letter was written by Ramsay, and nobody else would have had a motive to write such filth. Anybody else could have done better.

And the idea that Selyse would take her daughter into what's either the thick of an uncertain battle or her lord husband's final, utter defeat is indeed very far-fetched. You don't take royal women into the battle, and you don't take royal children there, either.

Stannis has to get to his daughter to sacrifice her, not the other way around.

Also keep in mind that Selyse is actually on her way to Stannis' new royal seat, the Nightfort, and is merely making an extended stop at Castle Black. If things get hairy in Castle Black she might press on to that place, to surround herself with what men she has left.

But, more likely, Selyse is going to jump on the chance to accompany Tycho Nestoris to Braavos, taking her daughter with her. If Stannis is dead then the contract about the loans passes to Queen Shireen, and Selyse will collect the money and the sellswords to avenge her late husband and king.

If that was the plot then Stannis and his family might be reunited late in TWoW, after Stannis' return to the Wall and Selyse's return from Braavos with a couple of thousand sellswords in her employ.

55 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

And maybe only them escaping, and not Mel, is what leads to Stannis sacrificing Shireen in some last ditch effort because he doesn’t have his spiritual advisor and all he know’s is “king’s blood” works and those damn crows will probably be squawking “King” in his ear.

Stannis is not going to murder his own daughter on a weird whim. He doesn't believe that sacrifices work all that well, anyway, as his take on the treatment of the cannibals show. He does it to placate the morons following him ... and to punish severe crimes.

55 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

I also think the pink letter fits into Stannis’ storyline very well.  If he sent the pink letter in the hopes of getting Jon & the wildlings off the sidelines and into the fight, then in a way he would be indirectly responsible for Jon’s murder by sending him the bogus letter.  It could be very karmic that the pink letter, if written by Stannis, ends up being the thing that caused his wife and daughter to flee to him in the middle of his desperate military situation and ultimately placing her on site to be a sacrificial candidate.  Justin Massey will probably hide Asha (his 1st choice) and he’ll turn to Shireen out of desperation

Go reread the stuff. Justin Massey has already been commanded to take 'Arya' and the banker back to the Wall. He won't be at the village for the Theon sacrifice scene ... which is not likely to include an actual Theon sacrifice, anyway.

No need to discuss the idea that Stannis may have written the letter ... but what we should consider is that Bran is not particularly likely to want Stannis to sacrifice anyone, least of all Theon. Rather he may want them to go the weirwood on the island to speak through the heart tree and/or work some other magic or miracle to make himself known. Bran's powers might play a crucial role in the upcoming battle(s).

55 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

I’m gonna re-read Theon & Asha’s chapters from Winds.  I feel like Theon being sacrificed is gonna coincide with Jon’s resurrection or his spirit and body reuniting.  Or it could likely happen at the same time or cause something bad happening for Stannis’ cause.  Like maybe the Karstarks escaping while he’s out on the island sacrificing Theon?   Then maybe Stannis, frustrated by the Old Gods not helping his cause with Theon’s sacrifice, returns later and burns Shireen along with the Weirwood. 

I think you should also think about the distances - there is no chance that Theon's non-sacrifice will coincide with Jon's resurrection - nor is there the slightest chance that the battle(s) are not fought and done once Selyse and Shireen were to show up at Winterfell if they went there - not that they ever would.

55 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

I could see all of this happening in the first 3rd of Winds.  Basically, showing Stannis’ situation spiraling downward from the pink letter to him burning his daughter.  The Weirwoods have eyes and the North Remembers.  They remember Stannis & M el burning weirwood trees.  Plus they know he’s not the real promised one.  It’s time for the Old Gods & the North to put this false Southern pretender down and make way for the truly promised King in the North who gonna lead mankind’s defense against the Others.

Bloodraven and Bran could likely care less about nonsense like 'the North' or 'this false southron pretender'. If they want to help organize mankind in the fight against the Others they cannot think or act in such petty and childlish categories.

Yes, the whole burning of weirwood stuff is not something they would like all that much about Stannis ... but the fact that he did show up and saved the NW they will like.

We can also assume that Bloodraven knows who and what Jon Snow is ... yet he seems to have still intervened in the choosing of the Lord Commander with the raven business to ensure that Jon is elected. That means he doesn't care for Jon Snow becoming some kind of petty mundane pretender ... but focus exclusively on the true enemy beyond the Wall.

Fueling a conflict between the Northmen and Stannis would be utter nonsense. Not that they even could do that if they wanted to.

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On 7/18/2022 at 7:15 PM, Lord Varys said:

 

You seem to be more in tune with the books (been some years since my last reading).  So if not Stannis, who do you think wrote the pink letter?  And if Ramsey, you feel it was clearly a fake and he was lying, since you still feel Stannis will sacrifice Shireen.  So, in your opinion, what was Ramsey hoping to accomplish?  
 

I’m sure you’ll provide factual evidence from the text to dispute my idea, but my other option besides Stannis being the author was Mance.  Mance knows all the details contained within the letter as well.  And he also has motivation of getting Jon to rally the wildlings and bring them to Winterfell (where he could reveal himself to still be alive and hoping to reclaim his position as wildling leader).  But the problem will be they’ve found a new leader…

Remember Mance glamoured as Rattleshirt gave Jon a good thrashing while they were practicing at Castle Black.  I can see them having a rematch with Mance expecting a repeat performance, but this changed more wolf like Jon will win the duel and solidify his place as the wildlings new leader.  

I guess I’m clearly having a hard time figuring out Ramsay’s motivation behind the pink letter if he is indeed the author.  Who are some other candidates or do you just feel it truly is Ramsey?
 

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25 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

You seem to be more in tune with the books (been some years since my last reading).  So if not Stannis, who do you think wrote the pink letter?  And if Ramsey, you feel it was clearly a fake and he was lying, since you still feel Stannis will sacrifice Shireen.  So, in your opinion, what was Ramsey hoping to accomplish? 

Well, of course it was Ramsay. What he wanted to accomplish depends on the situation when he was writing the letter - and we don't know that.

However, the general motivation seems to be more or less clear. The Boltons know that Jon Snow and Stannis' red witch banded together and sent a disguised Mance Rayder with his wildling women to Winterfell to abduct 'Arya Stark'. And as we know ... they succeeded at that.

In context, the biggest problem the Boltons have at that point is that Stannis learns that Jeyne isn't Arya after all, and they have thus no legal claim to Winterfell or the North. Which is a serious problem for their cause since they also happen to know that the Stark boys are still alive.

If the letter was written before a decisive battle took place then the general motivation would be to cause confusion at the Wall, prevent Jon Snow from revealing Jeyne's true identity, and, in an ideal scenario, cause the Lord Commander to do something stupid. And Jon delivered on that front.

If Stannis were actually defeated already there would be little to no reason to write such a letter. Stannis' defeat would mean the anti-Bolton Northmen were crushed, too, so the truth about Jeyne Poole - or even the revelation about Bran and Rickon - could no longer cause big problems for them. Instead, the Boltons would just sent a small host to Castle Black to take what they want and deal with Jon the way they saw fit.

25 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

I’m sure you’ll provide factual evidence from the text to dispute my idea, but my other option besides Stannis being the author was Mance.  Mance knows all the details contained within the letter as well.  And he also has motivation of getting Jon to rally the wildlings and bring them to Winterfell (where he could reveal himself to still be alive and hoping to reclaim his position as wildling leader).  But the problem will be they’ve found a new leader…

Mance would have even less of a motivation to write a silly letter in which features as a guy in cage clad in the skins of his women. I mean ... that's not just sick as hell, it is also humiliating as hell for a man like Mance.

Both Stannis and Mance would write Jon a proper letter, not some nonsense like that. And most likely both of them wouldn't send a letter to Jon at all but rather to Melisandre. And Mance may not even be literate ... most importantly not to the degree to fake Ramsay's handwriting. And if the handwriting was different then Jon would have noticed that immediately and commented on it. He doesn't mention the huge spikey hand ... but that doesn't mean it wasn't there.

Mance has no reason to goad the wildlings into marching against Winterfell. That can only lead to their death because it would unite the North against them. The wildlings are hated in the North, and they have no experience in proper warfare much less siegecraft. Roose or Ramsay could hold Winterfell against the wildlings with ten old men. They would never get through or above the walls.

25 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

Remember Mance glamoured as Rattleshirt gave Jon a good thrashing while they were practicing at Castle Black.  I can see them having a rematch with Mance expecting a repeat performance, but this changed more wolf like Jon will win the duel and solidify his place as the wildlings new leader.  

Considering that very little time would have passed between these two events and considering that swordfighting isn't some kind of weirdo magic you can get better at while hanging around in a wolf I think that's increasingly unlikely.

Also the general idea that Mance still wants to be a king of sorts. He submitted, and he serves Stannis and Melisandre now, in the hope to save his people. He has given up all ambition to be their king ... and he wouldn't really support Jon against Melisandre/Stannis is some kind of weird power struggle but rather insist they all band together and fight the Others.

Which is basically what he is doing when he agrees to save Arya's sister for Jon Snow at Melisandre's behest. He wants them all to work together and puts his own life on the line.

25 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

I guess I’m clearly having a hard time figuring out Ramsay’s motivation behind the pink letter if he is indeed the author.  Who are some other candidates or do you just feel it truly is Ramsey?
 

I don't think there is any reason to doubt that it was written by Ramsay.

The question about the Pink Letter isn't who wrote it ... but which parts are true and what the point of it was.

And, to a lesser extent, who read it before Jon Snow. Because there is clearly a hint that Clydas showed it to Marsh before handing it over to Jon and that is what allowed Marsh sufficient time to prepare the assassination.

The clue there is the smear of pink wax on the letter, apparently lacking the proper Bolton seal. That indicates the letter may have been opened early to be resealed with lesser quantity of wax and lacking the proper Bolton seal.

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If you want to engage in detailed debates of the plot of TWoW and what may or may not happen in the book, there's basically two entire topics (and the rest of this subtopic) for that. This thread was for discussion of GRRM's latest news and updates on the book.

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On 7/18/2022 at 7:15 PM, Lord Varys said:

The letter was written by Ramsay, and nobody else would have had a motive to write such filth.

I had originally thought it was written by Ramsey as well, but I am growing less inclined to believe it. At this point, I’m sure you have heard all the points to the contrary, so can I ask why you don’t find them persuasive? The biggest IMO are the discrepancies between this letter and other letters Ramsey is known to have sent (ink, lack of skin) and the knowledge of Val. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 7/20/2022 at 1:14 PM, Lady Rhodes said:

I had originally thought it was written by Ramsey as well, but I am growing less inclined to believe it. At this point, I’m sure you have heard all the points to the contrary, so can I ask why you don’t find them persuasive? The biggest IMO are the discrepancies between this letter and other letters Ramsey is known to have sent (ink, lack of skin) and the knowledge of Val. 

more and more i start believing in Mance as an author. which makes me happy, he is great charachter and it seems we will see much more of him in final books

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On 7/24/2022 at 10:48 AM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

GRRM said that he will do a cameo for HotD if he finishes Winds while the show is still running. So I guess he isn't as close to finishing as the recent blog post and GoO interview made it seem?

They've indicated the show might only run for three seasons. Season 1 filmed in 2021, Season 2 will probably not shoot until early 2023 and Season 3 until mid-to-late 2024, so it's more of an acknowledgement that he might not finish soon enough, get the books out etc all in that timeframe (though he also might). If the show was envisaged as going 10 seasons, filmed over 15 years, and he still didn't thank he was going to have time to film a cameo, I'd be more concerned.

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13 hours ago, Werthead said:

They've indicated the show might only run for three seasons. Season 1 filmed in 2021, Season 2 will probably not shoot until early 2023 and Season 3 until mid-to-late 2024, so it's more of an acknowledgement that he might not finish soon enough

Had no idea they had it set for 3 already. Must have missed that piece of news. Wonder if success with the 1st season will change their minds and alter the course of the next two. 

 

 

 

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On 8/11/2022 at 5:43 AM, Werthead said:

They've indicated the show might only run for three seasons. Season 1 filmed in 2021, Season 2 will probably not shoot until early 2023 and Season 3 until mid-to-late 2024, so it's more of an acknowledgement that he might not finish soon enough, get the books out etc all in that timeframe (though he also might). If the show was envisaged as going 10 seasons, filmed over 15 years, and he still didn't thank he was going to have time to film a cameo, I'd be more concerned.

Has the show even been picked up for a second season yet, let alone a third one?

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31 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I  hope he is talking about some main POVs (pre-AFFC) being wrapped up soon.  If not, it's going to be a long wait.

I wonder if the 2 arcs he’s “maybe” speaking of are connected by location?  Like Dany & Tyrion or Brienne & Jaime?  Arianne & Jon Con?

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