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The Winds of Winter: The Latest Info (updated 10 July 2022)


Werthead
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On 12/10/2022 at 6:10 PM, Werthead said:

The 2015 estimate was different. I think his publishers were really desperate for TWoW and he agreed to get them "something" which would have been a much shorter book...

In hindsight, I think this might have been the best option. :unsure:

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On 12/10/2022 at 5:10 PM, Cas Stark said:

I must be missing something, if it took him 11 years to get to 75%, doesn't that mean the final 25% will take 3-4 more years?  LOL.  Assuming he's even correct about being 75% finished since we already went through this one time when he was going to be finished writing in a matter of a few months and that was years and years ago.

There's a saying in software development: The first 90% of the work takes 90% of the allotted time, and the remaining 10 % also takes 90% of the allotted time.

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On 11/18/2022 at 8:50 PM, Gilbert Green said:

Why do so many feel the need to virtue-signal their dislike of Preston?   Nobody is asking you to attend his birthday party, or vote for him into office.  Surely all of that is a bit off topic.  What he says in his video may be right or wrong, and that may be discussed without getting personal.  Indeed, one could discuss his points without mentioning his name or linking his video at all.

About that; according to Preston’s analysis, GRRM was referring to the leftover chapters from Dance when he said that he was a quarter of the way done with Winds, and likely hadn’t written any new material for the book.

But GRRM himself said around 2012 that he had written a small novel’s worth of Arya chapters even at that point. So what gives?

Edited by Takiedevushkikakzvezdy
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2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

About that; according to Preston’s analysis, GRRM was referring to the leftover chapters from Dance when he said that he was a quarter of the way done with Winds, and likely hadn’t written any new material for the book.

But GRRM himself said around 2012 that he had written a small novel’s worth of Arya chapters even at that point. So what gives?

I think he said he could write a novel's worth of chapter for Arya, not necessarily that he had done so by that point. I like to believe he must have a number of Arya chapters done by now, given how he mentioned working on her chapters several times during the pandemic.

Maybe she's one of the POVs whose storylines he's wrapped for Winds, besides Tyrion? He mentioned working on Jaime/Brienne a few months ago though, and I suspect their storyline will overlap with hers once she gets in the Riverlands, so who knows...

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1 hour ago, The Winged Griffin said:

I think he said he could write a novel's worth of chapter for Arya, not necessarily that he had done so by that point. I like to believe he must have a number of Arya chapters done by now, given how he mentioned working on her chapters several times during the pandemic.

The cartographer for The Lands of Ice and Fire said that he received several Arya chapters from GRRM in order to paint Braavos more accurately.

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6 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

About that; according to Preston’s analysis, GRRM was referring to the leftover chapters from Dance when he said that he was a quarter of the way done with Winds, and likely hadn’t written any new material for the book.

Preston's analysis was that GRRM was two thirds done.  A few month pass and more stuff gets written.  Then GRRM says he's about three quarters done, more or less.  I'm not saying you can't quibble with some of the details of his analysis.  But if Preston is so wrong, then why was he so right?  Looks like two thirds done was roughly in the correct ballpark, at the time.

6 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

But GRRM himself said around 2012 that he had written a small novel’s worth of Arya chapters even at that point. So what gives?

Wishful thinking colors everything.  According to some who were there, he said he COULD write an entire novel of Ayra's adventures in Braavos INSTEAD of writing WINDS.  Since Preston was not there, he was right to treat this as unconfirmed.

Additionally, a man involved in the ASOIAF map project said he had been sent a "set" of Arya chapters from WINDS so he could map out Braavos.  More likely however, in light of the intended purpose of mapping out Braavos, he had been sent a full set of all Arya's Braavos chapters, including one (or two?) from WINDS, which at this point included:

- Arya I (AFFC)

- Arya II (AFFC)

- Cat of the Canals (AFFC)

- Samwell III (AFFC), set in Braavos, and featuring Arya

- The Blind Girl (ADWD)

- The Ugly Little Girl (ADWD)

- Mercy (Wind's Sample Chapter)

- possibly one more chapter, maybe unfinished, bumped from DANCE to WINDS?

Anyhow, quibbling over details is almost beside the point, at this stage.  If GRRM really wrote a small novel's worth of material in 2012, and wrote "hundreds and hundreds" of pages in 2022, and had 200 pages bumped from DANCE, and has only "about 1100" pages done now, then his progress, if any, must have been, on average, absolutely minute during every other year.

Edited by Gilbert Green
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2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

The cartographer for The Lands of Ice and Fire said that he received several Arya chapters from GRRM in order to paint Braavos more accurately.

Do you know how long ago that was?  Thanks. 

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3 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Do you know how long ago that was?  Thanks. 

It would have been in 2012, according to this 2016 article

Game of Thrones Season Six: The fantasy cartographer also hates it when the TV show strays from the book (qz.com)

But the cartographer was probably misremembering if he thinks all the chapters he was sent were WINDS chapters.  More likely, he was sent all chapters set in Braavos, including one Sam chapter, featuring Arya.

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49 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Preston's analysis was that GRRM was two thirds done.  A few month pass and more stuff gets written.  Then GRRM says he's about three quarters done, more or less.  I'm not saying you can't quibble with some of the details of his analysis.  But if Preston is so wrong, then why was he so right?  Looks like two thirds done was roughly in the correct ballpark, at the time.

It can be hard to tell because it all depends on how you interpret GRRM's statements. Him saying that he wrote "hundreds of pages" in 2020 can give the impression that he hasn't written much at all before then, but it could also be that he is just doing constant rewrites.

Edited by Takiedevushkikakzvezdy
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16 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Anyhow, quibbling over details is almost beside the point, at this stage.  If GRRM really wrote a small novel's worth of material in 2012, and wrote "hundreds and hundreds" of pages in 2022, and had 200 pages bumped from DANCE, and has only "about 1100" pages done now, then his progress, if any, must have been, on average, absolutely minute during every other year.

You assume that "working on Winds" automatically means that he's increasing the total number of finalized MPs, which it doesn't. George could be rewriting pages, or laying out the outline of a chapter for example, and he'd still call it "working on the book". We saw during the writing of Dance that he managed to "unwrite" around 100 pages over a year of "working on Dance", but that doesn't mean that he hasn't made progress during that time.

When he says he's working on the book and making progress, I believe him. He wouldn't outright lie to his fans and say he's working when he really isn't. 

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6 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

You assume that "working on Winds" automatically means that he's increasing the total number of finalized MPs, which it doesn't.

WHAT?  I made no such assumption.  I assumed nothing about what "working on Winds" means.   And i never accused him of not "working on Winds".  

I only pointed out the logically unavoidable fact that he has made minimal page count progress in 11 years.  And the more pages you ascribe to some years, the less you can assign to other years. 

6 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

George could be rewriting pages, or laying out the outline of a chapter for example, and he'd still call it "working on the book".

So what?

6 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

When he says he's working on the book and making progress, I believe him. He wouldn't outright lie to his fans and say he's working when he really isn't. 

When did I accuse him of lying? 

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22 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

It can be hard to tell because it all depends on how you interpret GRRM's statements. Him saying that he wrote "hundreds of pages" in 2020 can give the impression that he hasn't written much at all before then, but it could also be that he is just doing constant rewrites.

I try to read GRRM's words narrowly, so i don't delude myself with unrealistic expectations.  But you have outdone me here.

I read GRRM's statement that he had written "hundreds and hundreds" of pages in 2020 as implying at least 400 pages of page-count progress in 2020.  But, you argue, i cannot prove that these 400 pages did not consist of rewriting maybe 150 pages that he had previously written and torn up.  So maybe on the whole he only made 250 pages of progress in 2020.  And maybe he tore up 50 of the pages in 2021 and plans to rewrite them.  So on balance he made only 100 pages of progress.  Okay.  I cannot absolutely disprove that.  But it is considerably less generous than i was being.

Your motive in making this argument seems to be to refute any suggestion that he made minimal progress in other years.  But why does this matter?  The big picture still remains.  And the big picture seems to be only 900 pages of page-count progress in 11 years (200+900=1100).

If anything, I thought it was a good sign that he had made at least 400 pages of progress as recently as 2020.  He is getting old, and it is good to know that he can still write.  But if you want to dash my hopes, go ahead.

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Now there is apparently talk of the Arya chapters from TWOW received by the illustrator of Lands of Ice and Fire (Jonathan Roberts).

I will post his comments on this:

  1. "I got chapters of 'Winds of Winter', which was very nice. Now just to give you an idea, this is 2012. There were finished chapters of 'Winds of Winter' in 2012. I'm not going to say any more. So actual parts of the Braavos map are directly involved with 'Winds of Winters'".
  2. "It was a thrill to detail the city and to get just a hint of what is to come (yes, look at this one carefully – there are locations on here that haven’t appeared in the books … yet)."
    Westeros.org member Ckram spotted in 2018 ten unnamed buildings that stood out from the general landscape (due to the similarity of their features and those of the buildings with names) in the Braavos map, for which there are no references in the earlier books. These are probably locations that will be featured in The Winds of Winter.
  3. "I was sent a set of chapters from The Winds of Winter [the forthcoming sixth book in the series] in 2012, with geographic details about the city of Braavos which were specifically required to be in the maps to support the plot of the upcoming novel. I do not know what those plot points are, just that they are important."
  4. Q: Jon, I have a question about your Braavos map. You said you were sent 'chapters' of Winds of Winter. However, in a Google Talk video about TLOIAF you only shown one chapter of that book in your harddrive, 'Arya I'. I not asking for spoilers or anything, just if you can at least clarify if you received more than one chapther of WOW? Thanks in advance.
    A: it’s actually all the Arya chapters. Not just one.

So Jonathan Roberts has stated several times that he has received several Arya chapters and that the locations in them can be found on the map in The Lands of Ice and Fire. Only I also note that his answers are contradictory. In one interview he states that he has no idea about certain plot points, in another he claims to have received all Arya chapters.

At the 2012 Worldcon George stated that he could write an entire novel about Arya Stark in Braavos as he had plenty of ideas about Arya's adventures in Braavos. This comment was about two months before the release of The Lands of Ice or Fire. So around that time, George was clearly working on the Braavos storyline. However, I don't think all the Arya chapters for The Winds of Winter were ready at that time. 

George later mentioned in 2013 and 2020 that he was still working on Arya. Still, I don't think that is helpful for the question of how much material Jonathan Roberts received for his Braavos map in 2012. After all, we know that George always has a tendency to rewrite and revise chapters (the new finds for FeastDance in the Cushing Library demonstrated this again recently). Arya's storyline in the 2020 version of Winds is unlikely to be the same as that of 2012.

Edited by $erPounce
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10 hours ago, $erPounce said:

Now there is apparently talk of the Arya chapters from TWOW received by the illustrator of Lands of Ice and Fire (Jonathan Roberts).

I will post his comments on this:

"I got chapters of 'Winds of Winter', which was very nice. Now just to give you an idea, this is 2012. There were finished chapters of 'Winds of Winter' in 2012. I'm not going to say any more. So actual parts of the Braavos map are directly involved with 'Winds of Winters'".

This indicates he received multiple chapters of WINDS; at least one of which concerned Braavos.

10 hours ago, $erPounce said:

"It was a thrill to detail the city and to get just a hint of what is to come (yes, look at this one carefully – there are locations on here that haven’t appeared in the books … yet)."

More or less the same objection.  Also, in his Talks at Google, he says that he added the zoo at the Sealord's Palace based on request.  He mistakenly believes this location was never mentioned in the books yet, as shown in his Talks at Google.

10 hours ago, $erPounce said:

Westeros.org member Ckram spotted in 2018 ten unnamed buildings that stood out from the general landscape (due to the similarity of their features and those of the buildings with names) in the Braavos map, for which there are no references in the earlier books. These are probably locations that will be featured in The Winds of Winter.

Sounds to me as though this is not necessarily any different from an artist's eye for variety.  Out of curiosity, can anyone identify any named locations that are not already accounted for in the books we know?

10 hours ago, $erPounce said:
  1. "I was sent a set of chapters from The Winds of Winter [the forthcoming sixth book in the series] in 2012, with geographic details about the city of Braavos which were specifically required to be in the maps to support the plot of the upcoming novel. I do not know what those plot points are, just that they are important."

He was sent a set of chapters from WINDS.  He was also sent a set of geographic details, either as part of those chapters, or separately, or both.  He was told (by who I don't know) that certain details were important.  He says he worked closely with Elio and Linda.

10 hours ago, $erPounce said:
  1. Q: Jon, I have a question about your Braavos map. You said you were sent 'chapters' of Winds of Winter. However, in a Google Talk video about TLOIAF you only shown one chapter of that book in your harddrive, 'Arya I'. I not asking for spoilers or anything, just if you can at least clarify if you received more than one chapther of WOW? Thanks in advance.
    A: it’s actually all the Arya chapters. Not just one.

His answer is ambiguous at best.  I'm not sure he understood the question.  Okay, he recieved more than one Arya chapter.  But were they all from WINDS?

10 hours ago, $erPounce said:

So Jonathan Roberts has stated several times that he has received several Arya chapters and that the locations in them can be found on the map in The Lands of Ice and Fire.

I'm not sure he has clearly stated it even once.  Nor am I sure he clearly remembers which Braavos chapters come from WINDS and which from FEAST or DANCE.

10 hours ago, $erPounce said:

Only I also note that his answers are contradictory. In one interview he states that he has no idea about certain plot points, in another he claims to have received all Arya chapters.

I don't see a contradiction.  He can be aware of a geographical detail, regardless of its source, without understanding its plot importance.

I would guess that, at the very least, he was told to add things to the island off the Sealord's palace, such as the menagerie and an ambiguous greenhouse and a few trees.   Nothing wrong with that, of course. 

These details have an exaggerated importance in some people's minds, due to their connection to contentious argument tied to lemon trees.   And Elio and Linda were among his advisors.

10 hours ago, $erPounce said:

At the 2012 Worldcon George stated that he could write an entire novel about Arya Stark in Braavos as he had plenty of ideas about Arya's adventures in Braavos. This comment was about two months before the release of The Lands of Ice or Fire. So around that time, George was clearly working on the Braavos storyline.

I don't think that follows at all.  But when GRRM finally published the Mercy chapter, and someone criticized it, he said he had rewritten the chapter several times, and was not going to rewrite it again.

10 hours ago, $erPounce said:

However, I don't think all the Arya chapters for The Winds of Winter were ready at that time. 

George later mentioned in 2013 and 2020 that he was still working on Arya.

The "Mercy" sample chapter was not released until early 2014; and he then complained of having rewritten it several times.  That plausibly explains the 2013 reference.

As for the 2020 reference, I hope and believe it is a new chapter he is working on.  Note that, in his 2020 reference, she seems to be still in Braavos.  i would like her to get to Westeros at some point, so I am actually inclined to hope that he is still in 2020 early in her arc.

 

Edited by Gilbert Green
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15 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

For what it's worth, the sequel to Avatar came out 13 years after the first movie. All we can do is hope for the best.

LOL, but James Cameron wasn't promising it every year for those 13 years.  Eh, I'm just over it.  I doubt I will even read Winds when it comes out, especially if it is closer in quality to the last 2 books.  It does look like he will ultimately get Winds completed some time in the next 2-4 years, so that's something.  But, as for the last book or books, no way will that happen even if GRRM lives to 100.

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1 hour ago, Cas Stark said:

 I doubt I will even read Winds when it comes out, especially if it is closer in quality to the last 2 books. 

I'm willing to bet at the worst case scenario you'll read it half way through at first and will go back finishing it after a year or so!:P

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2 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

LOL, but James Cameron wasn't promising it every year for those 13 years.  Eh, I'm just over it.  I doubt I will even read Winds when it comes out, especially if it is closer in quality to the last 2 books.  It does look like he will ultimately get Winds completed some time in the next 2-4 years, so that's something.  But, as for the last book or books, no way will that happen even if GRRM lives to 100.

GRRM never promised it every year. The only time he promised anything was back in 2015, and made a lengthy post explaining why it didn't happen.

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