The Winds of Winter: The Latest Info (updated 10 July 2022)

[Cas Stark]

3 minutes ago, Farerb said:

GRRM never promised it every year. The only time he promised anything was back in 2015, and made a lengthy post explaining why it didn't happen.

He said multiple times over multiple years that the show would not outpace the books.   But, whatever, in a literalist interpretation then yes it is true he has not said every year since Dance came out that Winds would be out, so thank you for the correction.  

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

2 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

He said multiple times over multiple years that the show would not outpace the books.   But, whatever, in a literalist interpretation then yes it is true he has not said every year since Dance came out that Winds would be out, so thank you for the correction.  

We always knew that GRRM is bad at estimates, though. He once thought that he would finish the ASOIAF trilogy by 1998.

[Werthead]

On 12/17/2022 at 1:27 PM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

About that; according to Preston’s analysis, GRRM was referring to the leftover chapters from Dance when he said that he was a quarter of the way done with Winds, and likely hadn’t written any new material for the book.

But GRRM himself said around 2012 that he had written a small novel’s worth of Arya chapters even at that point. So what gives?

All of the number-crunching for TWoW has indicated that the chapters that slipped from ADWD to TWoW could not number more than 180-200 manuscript pages that were completed (not counting chapters that GRRM had planned for ADWD but not written when he realised he could not fit them in). That makes sense as GRRM and Bantam treated 1500 MS pages for ADWD as a very hard limit, so when George went over that, he pretty much knew that material would be cut so he curtailed that as much as possible as it was time wasted (for the purposes of getting ADWD out, anyway).

There is no planet where TWoW was only planned to be 800 MS pages in length (less than half the current estimation), unlike ADWD where for some years he planned it only to be as big as AFFC (just under 1100 MS pages) and then allowed it to increase dramatically in size.

Brynden BFish had an excellent analysis a few years ago working on the basis of 180 MS pages completed at the time of ADWD's delivery, and then a further ~180 to 200 pages were written in a relatively short time early on (possibly after ADWD was completed but before GRRM devoted 2012 to Lands and World/Fire & Blood) to get to the 25% figure, and George may have taken that "25% done" figure by 2012/13 as a sign of excellent progress, leading to his over-estimations for delivery in 2015-16 which, as we know, did not happen.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Werthead

[Cas Stark]

20 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

We always knew that GRRM is bad at estimates, though. He once thought that he would finish the ASOIAF trilogy by 1998.

Well, "I" did not always know that.  I only read the books the first year of GOT, so as the sweet summer child I was, I believed [what I now know was BS] that the trouble with Dance was the 'Meereen knot' and that once that huge [largely imaginary] logistical and story issue was 'solved' that the rest of the story would flow like water.  HA.  I mean, really, HA.  

But, yes, I have ultimately understood that for whatever reasons GRRM is bad at estimates.  This is why I no longer care about the book series and despite D&D turning out to be poor custodians of his story & plots & characters & themes, they at least finished it.   [yeah, yeah, I know people wish to believe they changed everything about the ending, and GRRM ending that will never come will be totes different..... but that's the same pipe dream as the Meereen knot and getting at least Winds out before the show wrapped and on and on it goes].  I made my personal peace with it.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

11 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I believed [what I now know was BS] that the trouble with Dance was the 'Meereen knot' and that once that huge [largely imaginary] logistical and story issue was 'solved' that the rest of the story would flow like water. 

Oh, the Meereenese Knot was very much an issue for Dance. The thing is that it was naive of GRRM to think that he wouldn't encounter such problems again in the future. I'm sure he has several Mereeneese Knot-type issues with Winds, since the scope of that book is even bigger than Dance.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Takiedevushkikakzvezdy

[Cas Stark]

35 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Oh, the Meereenese Knot was very much an issue for Dance. The thing is that it was naive of GRRM to think that he wouldn't encounter such problems again in the future. I'm sure he has several Mereeneese Knot-type issues with Winds, since the scope of that book is even bigger than Dance.

I don't want to derail or relitigate this stuff, so I'll just say the 'Meereen knot' was kind of like how when I don't want to exercise and I find all kinds of made up reasons why I can't do it or fill in the blank for any task that I procrastinate on, using excuses that don't really withstand much scrutiny.  That's my opinion.  

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

13 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I don't want to derail or relitigate this stuff, so I'll just say the 'Meereen knot' was kind of like how when I don't want to exercise and I find all kinds of made up reasons why I can't do it or fill in the blank for any task that I procrastinate on, using excuses that don't really withstand much scrutiny.  That's my opinion.  

I mean, GRRM has talked about his writing process for Dance a lot, including the Meereenese Knot, and I wouldn't say that it doesn't withstand scrutiny. 

I think the issue is much deeper; GRRM had a very clear vision of the War of the Five Kings and a much more vague vision of what comes after it, which is why difficulties arose when it came to putting it on paper.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Takiedevushkikakzvezdy

[The Bard of Banefort]

I’m sure that, whatever happens, George’s publishers/estate will publish what he’s written for TWOW so far. So we do have that to look forward to. But as far as the finished project, I’ll only be able to get excited about it once the publication date is announced. We’ve been let down too many times.

If TWOW is still unpublished by the time HOTD S2 comes out and GRRM starts talking up TWOW in the months leading up to it though, that will be extremely lame. He did that this past summer and as you can see, there’s no book in sight.

[SeanF]

4 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

Well, "I" did not always know that.  I only read the books the first year of GOT, so as the sweet summer child I was, I believed [what I now know was BS] that the trouble with Dance was the 'Meereen knot' and that once that huge [largely imaginary] logistical and story issue was 'solved' that the rest of the story would flow like water.  HA.  I mean, really, HA.  

But, yes, I have ultimately understood that for whatever reasons GRRM is bad at estimates.  This is why I no longer care about the book series and despite D&D turning out to be poor custodians of his story & plots & characters & themes, they at least finished it.   [yeah, yeah, I know people wish to believe they changed everything about the ending, and GRRM ending that will never come will be totes different..... but that's the same pipe dream as the Meereen knot and getting at least Winds out before the show wrapped and on and on it goes].  I made my personal peace with it.

If the show ending matches the books’ ending, I could see why Martin would never want to finish.

Better to have an unfinished ending than one that sucks donkey balls.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

If the show ending matches the books’ ending, I could see why Martin would never want to finish.

Better to have an unfinished ending than one that sucks donkey balls.

As I understand it, GRRM had this ending in mind for years and years, so he definitely seems happy with it. 

[Gilbert Green]

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

Better to have an unfinished ending than one that sucks donkey balls.

Disagree.  If, in spite of his best efforts, an ending that sucks donkey balls is all he can do, he should just give it to us, and let us move on. 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Gilbert Green

[Mithras]

8 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

I don't want to derail or relitigate this stuff, so I'll just say the 'Meereen knot' was kind of like how when I don't want to exercise and I find all kinds of made up reasons why I can't do it or fill in the blank for any task that I procrastinate on, using excuses that don't really withstand much scrutiny.  That's my opinion.  

"Kicking the can down the road" is what GRRM did with AFfC and ADwD. He simply avoided facing the hard problems related to having the plot advance and converge.

[EggBlue]

7 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

As I understand it, GRRM had this ending in mind for years and years, so he definitely seems happy with it. 

does he though?

doesn't even matter if you're a "gardener" or an "architect" , most often when you have an idea for years , at some point it doesn't seem as good as it was when it first occurred to you . maybe that's one of George's problems with these series . I mean, he himself keeps saying that his characters are going in unexpected ways that even affects some of the things he had told D&D . and that's the point , if he has too many unexpected turns in the journey , the conclusion has to change .

[a black swan]

45 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

does he though?

doesn't even matter if you're a "gardener" or an "architect" , most often when you have an idea for years , at some point it doesn't seem as good as it was when it first occurred to you . maybe that's one of George's problems with these series . I mean, he himself keeps saying that his characters are going in unexpected ways that even affects some of the things he had told D&D . and that's the point , if he has too many unexpected turns in the journey , the conclusion has to change .

He has invested a lot of time in building foreshadowing in 5 books already that will ultimately lead to his endgame which isn't the the show version by his own admission. 

Quote

 

"What I have noticed more and more of late, however, is my gardening is taking me further and further away from the television series.   Yes, some of the things you saw on HBO in GAME OF THRONES you will also see in THE WINDS OF WINTER (though maybe not in quite the same ways)… but much of the rest will be quite different. [...]

Some characters you saw in the show are quite different than the versions in the novels.   Yarra Greyjoy is not Asha Greyjoy, and HBO’s Euron Greyjoy is way, way, way, way different from mine.   Quaithe still has a part to play.  So does Rickon Stark.   And poor Jeyne Poole.   And… well, the list is long.    (And all this is part of why WINDS is taking so long.   This is hard, guys).

Oh, and there will be new characters as well.   No new viewpoints, I promise you that, but with all these journeys and battles and scheming to come, inevitably our major players will be encountering new people in lands far and near.

One thing I can say,  in general enough terms that I will not be spoiling anything:  not all of the characters who survived until the end of GAME OF THRONES will survive until the end of A SONG OF ICE & FIRE, and not all of the characters who died on GAME OF THRONES will die in A SONG OF ICE & FIRE. 

And the ending?   You will need to wait until I get there.   Some things will be the same.   A lot will not. No doubt, once I am done, there will be huge debate about which version of the story is better.   Some people will like my book, others will prefer the television show.  - GRRM, Not a Blog, July 2022. 

 

He seems set on his ending. It's just the journey getting there that's taking him down uncertain paths. He described his gardening style to a car journey where he takes the oddest scenic routes and countless detours but ultimately ending up at his chosen destination. 

 

[LynnS]

13 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I’m sure that, whatever happens, George’s publishers/estate will publish what he’s written for TWOW so far. So we do have that to look forward to. But as far as the finished project, I’ll only be able to get excited about it once the publication date is announced. We’ve been let down too many times.

I predict the  freak-out of the century; followed by the biggest geek-out you've ever seen.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

7 hours ago, Mithras said:

"Kicking the can down the road" is what GRRM did with AFfC and ADwD. He simply avoided facing the hard problems related to having the plot advance and converge.

At this point, I'll happily take 1000 pages of Dany daydreaming about Daario as long as we get another book.

[Cas Stark]

4 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

At this point, I'll happily take 1000 pages of Dany daydreaming about Daario as long as we get another book.

That's why I said I didn't intend to read Winds.  I don't want to read another 1000 pages of Dany complaining and daydreaming, Tyrion bitching and moaning and so on.  I had sufficient in Dance. Of course if it is universally hailed as the best book of the series I might relent, but I think odds of that happening are slim.  I also realized with the final season of the show, that I've had enough of terrible sad outcomes for the characters.  

[LynnS]

41 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

That's why I said I didn't intend to read Winds.

Oh!  I'm going to pre-order it on the day it's announced and then I'm going to pester my local bookstore to make sure they have copies on hand on release day.  Then, I'll be first in line.  I may not make it to a Dream of Spring but I'm sure as hell going to read tWoW and woe to anybody who interrupts me.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

49 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I don't want to read another 1000 pages of Dany complaining and daydreaming, Tyrion bitching and moaning and so on.  I had sufficient in Dance.

A couple of years ago, I would have said the same thing. But here we are.

[The Bard of Banefort]

On 12/20/2022 at 12:14 AM, Mithras said:

"Kicking the can down the road" is what GRRM did with AFfC and ADwD. He simply avoided facing the hard problems related to having the plot advance and converge.

Sadly, I’ve come to accept this too. I think it could be overlooked if AFFC/ADWD at least fixed other issues, like half of the characters being way too young, but instead it exacerbated them. 2,000 pages of text that covered less than a year in-universe. 

I know it’s unpopular, but I’d rather he focused on Dunk and Egg and FnB instead. I think he knows how to write those through to the end.