The Winds of Winter: The Latest Info (updated 10 July 2022)

[Werthead]

11 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Plus, the only thing that really matters now is time. If releasing it in two volumes means that he will finish it faster, then Random House should be all-in on the idea.

Releasing it in two volumes will have zero bearing on the writing speed. He's finishing the whole thing before delivering it and they can make that determination.

As noted many times, George writes non-linearly by character more than by chapter, so it's entirely possible for him to have Chapters 50-70 complete but not even started Chapters 5-10, so releasing "what he has done already" is also always not possible.

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

As noted many times, George writes non-linearly by character more than by chapter, so it's entirely possible for him to have Chapters 50-70 complete but not even started Chapters 5-10, so releasing "what he has done already" is also always not possible.

I think he said he was about 75% complete.  That seems like a lot finished to me.  With one quarter remaining, I like to think he is in the home stretch, and it becomes easier and faster to write the rest.  What will we say when he says he has about 300 pages to go?  Then 200, then 100.  I haven't given up.    It's just a matter of filling in the time with something enjoyable while we wait.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Releasing it in two volumes will have zero bearing on the writing speed.

I would imagine that figuring out how to fit the story into one volume is quite time-consuming. He did say that he wanted an extra year (!) to incorporate the battles of Winterfell and Meereen into ADWD, but his publishers said no.

Edit: It might have been Anne Groell who said it.

Edited December 10, 2022 by Takiedevushkikakzvezdy

[Cas Stark]

I must be missing something, if it took him 11 years to get to 75%, doesn't that mean the final 25% will take 3-4 more years?  LOL.  Assuming he's even correct about being 75% finished since we already went through this one time when he was going to be finished writing in a matter of a few months and that was years and years ago.

[Nathan Stark]

On 12/9/2022 at 3:59 AM, EggBlue said:

so he's written 1100-1200 pages in over 11yrs and there's just about 400-500 pages to go? should we clap?

Maybe just a semi-enthusiastic confused shrug will do?

[Nathan Stark]

44 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I would imagine that figuring out how to fit the story into one volume is quite time-consuming. He did say that he wanted an extra year (!) to incorporate the battles of Winterfell and Meereen into ADWD, but his publishers said no.

Edit: It might have been Anne Groell who said it.

That's a problem for the publishers, but George is already writing this thing as an intended single volume. Figuring out how to split the completed book up into two volumes is not the same as writing it in the first place.

Edited December 10, 2022 by Nathan Stark

[Werthead]

55 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I must be missing something, if it took him 11 years to get to 75%, doesn't that mean the final 25% will take 3-4 more years?  LOL.  Assuming he's even correct about being 75% finished since we already went through this one time when he was going to be finished writing in a matter of a few months and that was years and years ago.

George only counts completed chapters in his counts. He usually has more material in fragments, drafts and partials, and finalising that material is much faster than writing it from scratch. On ADWD he "wrote" the final 25% of the book in under one year, because he wasn't writing it, he was finishing off material that had existed in a rough draft form for years before that.

Of course, that depends on how much rough material he has in TWoW. We don't know, so it might be relatively quick to finish the book or several years away.

The 2015 estimate was different. I think his publishers were really desperate for TWoW and he agreed to get them "something" which would have been a much shorter book and he had dramatically underestimated how much work was needed in terms of rewriting (in 2014 he even said he'd done zero rewriting of material for TWoW at all, which was an immediate red flag). Once the publishers made their peace with the fact this was just going to take a while, that pressure went away and he went in the opposite direction of deciding TWoW was going to be a much larger book than the previous ones. He certainly wasn't giving out page counts (completed and estimated) in the way he has been for the last few months.

[Farerb]

1 hour ago, Cas Stark said:

I must be missing something, if it took him 11 years to get to 75%, doesn't that mean the final 25% will take 3-4 more years?  LOL.  Assuming he's even correct about being 75% finished since we already went through this one time when he was going to be finished writing in a matter of a few months and that was years and years ago.

Writing novels is not science.

[Gilbert Green]

3 hours ago, LynnS said:

I think he said he was about 75% complete.  That seems like a lot finished to me. 

Seems like alot to me too.  But I long ago gave up on wishful thinking.  I read everything GRRM says as true, but read it narrowly.  Previously, I could not prove that GRRM had written more than 600 pages.  Now, his words seem to add about 500 pages to that total.  It's a major progress update for me.

[BlackLightning]

6 hours ago, Werthead said:

When he said it would be 300 pages longer than ASoS and ADWD, which are 1520 manuscript pages.

1520 + 300 = 1820

ETA: It was his Game of Owns interview, not the History of Westeros one.

Whoa.

So, we really are looking at a book approaching 90 chapters.

2 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

I must be missing something, if it took him 11 years to get to 75%, doesn't that mean the final 25% will take 3-4 more years?  LOL.  Assuming he's even correct about being 75% finished since we already went through this one time when he was going to be finished writing in a matter of a few months and that was years and years ago.

Not necessarily

If you've been diligent and did a good job, writing the end of something is much easier and much faster than writing the beginning and the middle.

It doesn't matter if it's a doctoral thesis, a novel, a speech or an e-mail. Things move quicker and get a little easier when you are at the end. Starting something takes a lot and the middle is always the hardest part.

Barring rewrites of course...

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

14 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

If you've been diligent and did a good job, writing the end of something is much easier and much faster than writing the beginning and the middle.

If you have a clear roadmap and know where you're going, which is not how GRRM works.

[butterweedstrover]

On 12/9/2022 at 3:59 AM, EggBlue said:

so he's written 1100-1200 pages in over 11yrs and there's just about 400-500 pages to go? should we clap?

It wasn’t a serious number. He was in a comedic framing where the author’s gag was that he didn’t know who Martin was. 

Martin had to give a number for the joke to work, so he just said something. Probably not accurate.

[Gilbert Green]

17 hours ago, Werthead said:

When he said it would be 300 pages longer than ASoS and ADWD, which are 1520 manuscript pages.

1520 + 300 = 1820

ETA: It was his Game of Owns interview, not the History of Westeros one.

You were mistaken, then.  He did not say that that it would be 300 pages longer.  He was discussing a hypothetical.

Edited December 11, 2022 by Gilbert Green

[Gilbert Green]

23 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

So, we really are looking at a book approaching 90 chapters.

He seems to expect about 1600 pages.  He never mentioned the number of chapters.  If we allot 20 pages per chapter, that might be 80 chapters or something.  Of course, the tale could still grow in the telling.

Edited December 11, 2022 by Gilbert Green

[Werthead]

6 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

You were mistaken, then.  He did not say that that it would be 300 pages longer.  He was discussing a hypothetical.

I am afraid not. He said the book would be significantly longer than ADWD, "not 30 pages longer but more like 300 pages longer."

Does this mean the book will be exactly 1820 manuscript pages long? No. It could be 1750 or 1900 or even 2000. But certainly it is in that ballpark figure.

[EggBlue]

On 12/9/2022 at 9:32 PM, LynnS said:

Have you given up on George then?

to be honest,  I'm not sure.  I don't think I have given up on him completely.  personally I think the last parts of the story would be easier for an author like George to write. still,  I don't feel as excited about his updates as before. 

[Jekse]

23 hours ago, Nathan Stark said:

That's a problem for the publishers, but George is already writing this thing as an intended single volume. Figuring out how to split the completed book up into two volumes is not the same as writing it in the first place.

It's not a problem at all, both Storm and Dance were split in two for foreign paperback releases. I don't see why Winds would be a different case. 

[Cas Stark]

On 12/9/2022 at 1:02 PM, LynnS said:

Have you given up on George then?

Yes.  I have. 

[LynnS]

2 hours ago, EggBlue said:

to be honest,  I'm not sure.  I don't think I have given up on him completely.  personally I think the last parts of the story would be easier for an author like George to write. still,  I don't feel as excited about his updates as before. 

I try not to get too excited about the updates myself.   Now I think in terms of it being 2 years down the road; rather than I've been waiting for 10 years.   Oddly, House of Dragons seems to have satisfied my craving for something.  I spend some time listening to content creators like History of Westeros and In Deep Geek.  They are always fun and entertaining.  Also I haven't had cable for 7 years and now that I do; Netflix and Prime are a feast!  Diversions are good for the soul.  I highly recommend Phil Dragash's reading of LOTR.  His voice acting and soundscape are the best I've heard.  Also, David Lightbringer seems to be branching off into some other TV series.  It's good to keep the mind sharp.  In Deep Geek covers LOTR and other shows as well.   All this stops me from pining for Winds of Winter.  

[Gilbert Green]

6 hours ago, Werthead said:

I am afraid not. He said the book would be significantly longer than ADWD, "not 30 pages longer but more like 300 pages longer."

Does this mean the book will be exactly 1820 manuscript pages long? No. It could be 1750 or 1900 or even 2000. But certainly it is in that ballpark figure.

I listened to the podcast.  I know the context.  He was discussing a hypothetical. 

In order to consider splitting WINDS into two books, it would have to be "not 10 pages longer but more like 300 pages longer".  And even then there would be other options, like editing it down.  But he never predicted this would happen.  It was merely a hypothetical situation.