Jump to content

The Winds of Winter: The Latest Info (updated 10 July 2022)


Recommended Posts

35 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

You're all grossly overestimating the amount of time left in Essos. The arc is done, she was tired and wanted to rest and plant some trees and watch them grow, but she's learnt now that's not who she is, she can't wear the floppy ears, the dragon does not plant trees, it's fire and blood all the way. Her players and forces are all assembling themselves in Meereen without her having to be there, all that's left to do is gather up the Dothraki and pick off the city states on the way West. 

Conquest takes time.  It took Genghis Khan two years to overrun Khwarazm;  Alexander three years to overthrow Darius.  And those were lightning fast conquests.

Edited by SeanF
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:
20 hours ago, Morte said:

So I think we will at best see her ships arrive in Westeros in the Epilogue of TWoW, [snip]

That is all very optimistic considering the size of the story.

That's why I said it's the earliest moment. Imho it could be doable if the chapters in Essos were as fast paced as in the first two books, but even than it would cut heavily into the page count, leaving less space for the other characters. That's why I find it more likely to happen in the Prologue or one of the first chapters in ADoS (something like: the first ships are seen emerging on the horizons by a POV on Dragonstone).

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think the fall of the Wall cannot be some kind of surprise. So far the Others did nothing to indicate they even want to overrun the Wall. This kind of danger has to be build up. TWoW should do this ... but I'm not sure it can reach the climax.

Oh, it will not be a surprise for the reader, and maybe not even all the characters, but if it comes down because of something stupid (like a sacrifice or something), it will hit some of the characters like a truck.

I think we will have a lot of build up for whatever has to happen on the Wall, reaching it climax in either the last chapter of TWoW, it's Epilogue or the Prologue of ADoS (or else we would really need another book ;)).

58 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

You're all grossly overestimating the amount of time left in Essos. The arc is done, she was tired and wanted to rest and plant some trees and watch them grow, but she's learnt now that's not who she is, she can't wear the floppy ears, the dragon does not plant trees, it's fire and blood all the way. Her players and forces are all assembling themselves in Meereen without her having to be there, all that's left to do is gather up the Dothraki and pick off the city states on the way West. 

GRRM could do something like this, ignoring everyone and every plot built up in Essos, or solving it all with one chapter of deus ex machina, but it would not be... how to put it? ... the best writing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I usually like to talk about my 2023-2024 theory which now seems more likely than ever to be proven a fact . but does anyone fear that this winter garden is nothing more than an advertisement for snow show? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

This has happened before, though. In AGoT, there is foreshadowing of Jaime becoming king and Robb maiming Joffrey in battle, both of which were originally supposed to happen. I'm sure there are other examples that people have missed.

Yes, okay ... but those were very subtle things. And I still don't see the foreshadowing for Robb maiming Joffrey. You mean their training in the yard there?

Quite a few people are compared to kings or commented on their kingly appearance ... most importantly Tywin (by Stannis, Pycelle, etc.) ... yet that was never meant as foreshadowing the prick would ever become king.

Jaime looking like a king works perfectly as Jon having the wrong priorities/expectations.

I don't think George is going to treat real clues like prophecies or visions in the same way.

4 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Maybe the Wall will fall while Jon is dead, as a direct consequence of his assasination. I just came up with that, and I'm not even a fan of the idea, but tell me there'll be a better time for the Wall to fall. 

Maybe Jon and the Wall are magically connected, and the death of Jon will bring the slow (and magical) crumble of the Wall.

Now that would be real pressure. A gate you're unable to close, not knowing when someone passes, but know someone bad really wants to the whole time. It would give time to people as well, as I assume, the Others wouldn't think of the Wall magically crumbling just like that, and would hence not be ready and need time to 'assemble'.

That would be just weird as hell. No buildup for that 'connection' at all.

2 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

You're all grossly overestimating the amount of time left in Essos. The arc is done, she was tired and wanted to rest and plant some trees and watch them grow, but she's learnt now that's not who she is, she can't wear the floppy ears, the dragon does not plant trees, it's fire and blood all the way. Her players and forces are all assembling themselves in Meereen without her having to be there, all that's left to do is gather up the Dothraki and pick off the city states on the way West. 

That's just plain wrong. Dany decided she would not plant trees in Meereen. But this doesn't mean she is off to Westeros now. She could have mounted Drogon to fly west. Instead she took him to the Dothraki. They are retracing her steps now, to go forward Dany goes backwards, like Quaithe wants her to. At the very end of that journey may lie Westeros. But it isn't the place where she is headed now and once she takes over the Dothraki there will be another, much bigger temptation to never go to that silly place ... because she is now the most powerful Dothraki leader ever.

I mean, it is silly. She is like some English settler becoming President of the US who has now to consider whether he wants actually topple the British king. Why would you want to rule a small island when you can have a vast continent?

And the Meereenese arc isn't done, either. The characters there have to figure out what they want to do in Dany's absence. Whatever dragonriders rise in Dany's absence won't wait for the orders of a fifteen-year-old girl to decide what to do with the prestige and power that comes with that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Morte said:

That's why I said it's the earliest moment. Imho it could be doable if the chapters in Essos were as fast paced as in the first two books, but even than it would cut heavily into the page count, leaving less space for the other characters. That's why I find it more likely to happen in the Prologue or one of the first chapters in ADoS (something like: the first ships are seen emerging on the horizons by a POV on Dragonstone).

I don't think it is just the pacing but also the events that unfold and the time it takes to travel. Ships cannot teleport. Think about how many chapters there were between Aegon deciding to move to Westeros and their landing in the Stormlands. Daenerys would have to have her people mount ships - or at least have the ships right there in the harbor and make her decision to go - and then we would need, say, at least half a novel or more for them to move to Westeros (if we imagine they depart from Meereen).

But more importantly - if we have Dany's arrival coincide with the fall of the Wall then there won't be a Second Dance ... perhaps not even a conflict between Dany and Aegon. This cannot unfold on the background of a North invaded by a zombie army. It just wouldn't fly. The size of Westeros makes it literally impossible that news about that could be suppressed by the Others. And sane people (i.e. folks who aren't Cersei or Euron) would neither ignore that danger nor try to exploit it for their own petty ambitions.

54 minutes ago, Morte said:

Oh, it will not be a surprise for the reader, and maybe not even all the characters, but if it comes down because of something stupid (like a sacrifice or something), it will hit some of the characters like a truck.

I guess it is theoretically possible that George will take such a route. But the implication is that he won't. He has that buildup for the Horn of Joramun and originally the script in the show had the Lich King guy bring down the Wall through an earthquake.

I've no idea who the guy will be to blow it or why ... it could be an Other or, more likely, some moron who makes a big mistaking not knowing what he or she is doing.

54 minutes ago, Morte said:

I think we will have a lot of build up for whatever has to happen on the Wall, reaching it climax in either the last chapter of TWoW, it's Epilogue or the Prologue of ADoS (or else we would really need another book ;)).

In ADwD George went out of his to not advance the Others plot at all. Sure, okay, they attacked Hardhome, but that's at the end of the world. No interaction with any of the characters we know aside from some wights in front of the cave and Varamyr seeing a wightified Thistle.

Mance's attack was first hinted at in AGoT and confirmed as a plan in ACoK to finally unfold in ASoS. Whether the Others actually do want to attack the Wall and the lands down south we so far not even know.

I also think it would be a considerable letdown if the Wall were to fall just like that. I think we should see the Others assemble there, to attack in full force with their wights and ice spiders and what not ... to first actually being repelled by the magic of the Wall. Only the second step should be the fall of the Wall via the earthquake.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But more importantly - if we have Dany's arrival coincide with the fall of the Wall then there won't be a Second Dance ... perhaps not even a conflict between Dany and Aegon. This cannot unfold on the background of a North invaded by a zombie army. It just wouldn't fly. The size of Westeros makes it literally impossible that news about that could be suppressed by the Others. And sane people (i.e. folks who aren't Cersei or Euron) would neither ignore that danger nor try to exploit it for their own petty ambitions.

Yes, but as you might remember (it's been some time, since we last talked about this), I'm not sure the Dance of the Dragons Part Two will ever take place in the sense of a real conflict. We already had a Dance with Dragons, and a lot of characters are still dancing it, some not even started to join, so: :dunno:

If Martin is not making people sit on their hands for a whole book while at the same time a lot of things is happening in other POVs, I think that Dany will "miss" most of the game of thrones played in Westeros, seeing how much she has to do in Essos before moving West. I would find it very plausible if she would even only come because of the Others and the role she and the dragons have to play in that conflict according to the things Marwyn & Co. will tell her.

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I also think it would be a considerable letdown if the Wall were to fall just like that. I think we should see the Others assemble there, to attack in full force with their wights and ice spiders and what not ... to first actually being repelled by the magic of the Wall. Only the second step should be the fall of the Wall via the earthquake.

Yes, of course. It's just that we will see this in TWoW or the very beginning of ADoS - or we would need another book, because else we are running out of pages for solving the conflict. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Morte said:

Yes, but as you might remember (it's been some time, since we last talked about this), I'm not sure the Dance of the Dragons Part Two will ever take place in the sense of a real conflict. We already had a Dance with Dragons, and a lot of characters are still dancing it, some not even started to join, so: :dunno:

Sure, but then it would be very odd that George didn't decide in ADwD to have Aegon go to Meereen, marry Daenerys, and have a united Targaryen power bloc in Westeros eventually.

I agree that we cannot have any long Dance scenario - basically just one big, decisive battle or perhaps only an ambush deciding the matter - but on the background of the Others thing this would be very difficult to happen.

I think there is a chance that the Others thing (prior to the fall of the Wall which is going to force everybody's hand to fall in line/work with each other) becomes an important piece of the political ideology in the fracturing Realm in winter. Rhaegar believed his son was the savior, Euron is a powerful sorcerer king, Stannis already believes he is the savior, and Daenerys will be told that she is and all others are mistaken.

While the threat of the Others is seen as real but not yet a mortal danger for the peoples south of the Wall people might bicker and fight about who is destined to save the world ... but even that should die down when the Wall falls. Or be only done in the more subtle manner of assassinations, backstabbing, and the like. Not open defiance/warfare.

19 minutes ago, Morte said:

If Martin is not making people sit on their hands for a whole book while at the same time a lot of things is happening in other POVs, I think that Dany will "miss" most of the game of thrones played in Westeros, seeing how much she has to do in Essos before moving West. I would find it very plausible if she would even only come because of the Others and the role she and the dragons have to play in that conflict according to the things Marwyn & Co. will tell her.

I'm sure she will only come because of the Others. It will be the deciding factor to convince her to go in winter rather than next spring. It will also be the factor which causes her to make haste rather than organize a thorough campaign which would insure total success.

19 minutes ago, Morte said:

Yes, of course. It's just that we will see this in TWoW or the very beginning of ADoS - or we would need another book, because else we are running out of pages for solving the conflict. ;)

We'll most definitely need another book - or two. This story can't just be wrapped up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but then it would be very odd that George didn't decide in ADwD to have Aegon go to Meereen, marry Daenerys, and have a united Targaryen power bloc in Westeros eventually.

The easiest answer would be, that he wanted to deconstruct the topos of the perfect promised prince, groomed to rule and oh so perfect.

But beside that:

47 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I think there is a chance that the Others thing (prior to the fall of the Wall which is going to force everybody's hand to fall in line/work with each other) becomes an important piece of the political ideology in the fracturing Realm in winter. Rhaegar believed his son was the savior, Euron is a powerful sorcerer king, Stannis already believes he is the savior, and Daenerys will be told that she is and all others are mistaken.

While the threat of the Others is seen as real but not yet a mortal danger for the peoples south of the Wall people might bicker and fight about who is destined to save the world ... but even that should die down when the Wall falls. Or be only done in the more subtle manner of assassinations, backstabbing, and the like. Not open defiance/warfare.

I agree. One could even hypothesise that with the threat of the Others (solved or not) they might even end the dance the way it should have been done the last time: the hard way, by negotiations.

50 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We'll most definitely need another book - or two. This story can't just be wrapped up.

I'm afraid we will not get another (eighth) book, or if, than just because he messed up and kept the pace of ADwD. I don't know if he can wrap things up well enough to not make it look cheap.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/11/2022 at 12:34 AM, SeanF said:

I think you’re correct about that, if not in detail, certainly in general.  I think it’s very much a theme of Arianne’s story that she’s a more or less decent person who’s in over her head, and does not appreciate how savage and bloodthirsty her cousins and her allies are. Arianne is not a murderer of children, and perhaps not Aegon.  But Jon Con and the rest are.

Catherine de Medici intended to kill a handful of Hugenot leaders in a surgical strike.  What she actually got was a complete bloodbath, as the Paris mob ran out of control, and I would foresee something similar at Kings Landing, as anyone associated with the Tyrells/Lannisters/Baratheons is just strung up.  I think that would leave Arianne completely broken.

That would make Arianne an interesting foil for Cersei as well, as Cersei is not a decent who is also in over her head (the reinvigoratation of the Faith Militant still makes me smack my head) They both think themselves savvy players, but they lack the judgment and the ability to put aside personal grievances in order to rule effectively. 
 

Also, given Martin’s affinity for dialing up historical events, the Medici comparison could be apt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

That would make Arianne an interesting foil for Cersei as well, as Cersei is not a decent who is also in over her head (the reinvigoratation of the Faith Militant still makes me smack my head) They both think themselves savvy players, but they lack the judgment and the ability to put aside personal grievances in order to rule effectively. 
 

Also, given Martin’s affinity for dialing up historical events, the Medici comparison could be apt.

There are similarities, but Arianne lacks Cersei’s cruelty.  I can’t imagine Arianne sending people to be vivisected in cells underneath Sunspear, or ordering the murder of infants. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, SeanF said:

There are similarities, but Arianne lacks Cersei’s cruelty.  I can’t imagine Arianne sending people to be vivisected in cells underneath Sunspear, or ordering the murder of infants. 

Oh, I agree. That was my point, though perhaps I did not explain well. Her lack of cruelty is what I think makes her an interesting foul. That is the quality they do not share.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

I've always thought it possible to likely that Victarion would blow the horn (or a minion would) and that would take over one or both dragons still in Meereen, then they'd leave for Westeros. Drogon is not affected (far too far away) and it's the theft of the two dragons that makes Dany feel she has no choice but to return to Westeros immediately.

There are logistics to consider there. Maybe the two other dragons go nuts first and destroy the besieging army or Drogon is slightly affected by the horn even from hundreds of miles away and that convinces Daenerys to make for Meereen ASAP.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean, it is silly. She is like some English settler becoming President of the US who has now to consider whether he wants actually topple the British king. Why would you want to rule a small island when you can have a vast continent?

Westeros is a vast, rich, unified continent that has already been under a single authority for three centuries. That's a much more tempting target than the barren Dothraki Sea or some sort of elaborate scheme to use the siege-incapable Dothraki to try to conquer all of Essos when she's abjectly failed to hold onto just three city-states in Essos with her dragons already. I don't think there'll be any real argument for Dany to stay in Essos much past her opening chapter or two in TWoW.

Edited by Werthead
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My husband mentioned years ago that he found it a distinct possibility that Danerys ends up with NO dragons (at least at some point) in Winds or Dream. He logic was the horn, but he also thought Bran would warg into one and Melisandre may take one. Interesting to posit how she would react if she lost them all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

I've always thought it possible to likely that Victarion would blow the horn (or a minion would) and that would take over one or both dragons still in Meereen, then they'd leave for Westeros. Drogon is not affected (far too far away) and it's the theft of the two dragons that makes Dany feel she has no choice but to return to Westeros immediately.

There are logistics to consider there. Maybe the two other dragons go nuts first and destroy the besieging army or Drogon is slightly affected by the horn even from hundreds of miles away and that convinces Daenerys to make for Meereen ASAP.

Westeros is a vast, rich, unified continent that has already been under a single authority for three centuries. That's a much more tempting target than the barren Dothraki Sea or some sort of elaborate scheme to use the siege-incapable Dothraki to try to conquer all of Essos when she's abjectly failed to hold onto just three city-states in Essos with her dragons already. I don't think there'll be any real argument for Dany to stay in Essos much past her opening chapter or two in TWoW.

I expect she’ll want to settle accounts with the Ghiscari slavers permanently, before leaving.  Even if (as I expect ) they are kerb-stomped in the Battle of Meereen, she won’t want to make the mistake of leaving Yunkai in a position to cause trouble once again.  I’d expect that city to be sacked, and the remaining Wise Masters to be put to death.

Nor do I see any route West that doesn’t involve the conquest of Volantis, and the cities in between that city and Meereen.  She’d need massive naval resources to reach Westeros, and only Volantis could supply them.  And a slave uprising in Volantis seems pretty well-seeded. There are plenty of people among her followers who understand sieges, even if the Dothraki don’t.  And even then, I’d expect her ships to hug the coast as much as possible, which makes Pentos a valuable target (and one which the Tattered Prince wants, in return for changing sides).  

That’s all going to keep her in Essos well past a couple of chapters, even if she’s moving West.

Edited by SeanF
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

I've always thought it possible to likely that Victarion would blow the horn (or a minion would) and that would take over one or both dragons still in Meereen, then they'd leave for Westeros. Drogon is not affected (far too far away) and it's the theft of the two dragons that makes Dany feel she has no choice but to return to Westeros immediately.

Nah, that's an idea that made some sense back before ADwD when we heard about Euron's original plan. But with Moqorro there messing with those plans - and with Vic himself making it clear he wants to sail the Dothraki Sea to find his dragon queen - there is little chance that this is a likely scenario.

And Dany chasing dragon thieves...? Why? She knows that she cannot ride all of them and she is now bonded to Drogon.

Even more so the crux really is to tell Daenerys about this dragon theft. Who would do that and how if she is going to Vaes Dothrak which is the likeliest destination at that point. There isn't any indication she went to Jhaqo so she can lead a khalasar to Meereen.

I'm sure the horn will create at least one new dragonrider, perhaps even two ... but that is not going to speed up the political plot. Especially not if the moron Victarion were to become a dragonrider. Brown Ben Plumm would still remain cautious, perhaps dream about setting himself up as king somewhere in Essos where he likes to spend time. And Tyrion would ... well, he would have want to find that dragon queen knowing that, dragon or not, without Dany he couldn't possibly take and hold on to the Iron Throne.

If Dany wanted to punish dragon thieves she wouldn't send a fleet after them. She would mount Drogon and fly after them. Ships do burn, after all.

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

There are logistics to consider there. Maybe the two other dragons go nuts first and destroy the besieging army or Drogon is slightly affected by the horn even from hundreds of miles away and that convinces Daenerys to make for Meereen ASAP.

No chance that Drogon is affected at all. If the horn worked like that then the dragon should have been affected by the blow back on Old Wyk.

The dragon might go nuts, but if they go nuts then they are more likely to attack everybody not just the attacking army. And Vic's fleet would be most vulnerable, considering the material the ships are made of.

As it stands, we should imagine that only Rhaegal will be effected anyway. He is out there, flying over the harbor and the ships when the horn is about to be blown. Viserion has flown back to his lair in the city. And depending how the horn is going to affect the dragons ... I'd be very surprised if it could be sounded more than once.

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Westeros is a vast, rich, unified continent that has already been under a single authority for three centuries. That's a much more tempting target than the barren Dothraki Sea or some sort of elaborate scheme to use the siege-incapable Dothraki to try to conquer all of Essos when she's abjectly failed to hold onto just three city-states in Essos with her dragons already. I don't think there'll be any real argument for Dany to stay in Essos much past her opening chapter or two in TWoW.

Daenerys Targaryen has never seen Westeros. All she knows about it come from her demented brother, an exiled knight with an agenda of his own, and some books. Everything that shaped her into the person she is right now happened in Essos. And what riches are in Westeros? Okay, there is gold in Casterly Rock, but most luxury goods come from Essos, not Westeros. The Dothraki know how to destroy cities in Essos. They proved that in the past. Taking them against the knights of Westeros in winter and forcing them to figure out a way to crack open all those castles is something nobody might want to do. At least not among the Dothraki who are going to surround and serve their Stallion savior.

There is no chance that George can present the Dothraki as mindless drones who gladly want to follow Dany over the sea to a land which pretty much none of them were interested in before.

And her family, House Targaryen, are Essosi as well, just as the Freehold of Valyria was. The dragon is not a beast of Westeros (aside from some wild dragons from ages past). Daenerys Targaryen could rebuild the Freehold of Valyria somewhere in Essos. A better version of it, without slavery and more democracy. I mean, the red priests do have a plan for their savior. Benerro has some kind of agenda for her in mind, and it has nothing to do with distant Westeros.

Dany might never let go of the idea to finally avenge her family and take possession of her birthright. But so far that's little more than a pipe dream. And the more responsibilities and causes are laden upon her the less this Westeros is going to matter.

In fact, it seems pretty clear that the news about Aegon are not going to trigger her wrath ... but rather be a welcome relief that she doesn't have to avenge her family now. More than Meereen this could rekindle her desire to settle down somewhere and not pursue any big destiny nonsense.

She only took on that burden because she was the last of her line.

4 hours ago, Morte said:

The easiest answer would be, that he wanted to deconstruct the topos of the perfect promised prince, groomed to rule and oh so perfect.

Yes ... but to be sure there were other ways to do that. And in a sense we already had that with Robb and Joffrey, even Renly.

But even a story about Aegon's rise and fall needs time to breathe. It cannot happen too quickly. So far he is neither perfect nor a prince (much less a king). If Euron or somebody else casts him down or he fucks up things hard then we need to see this. We really have to see how a perfect prince surrounded by a capable and devoted advisers and supporters ends up making the wrong call again and again.

4 hours ago, Morte said:

I agree. One could even hypothesise that with the threat of the Others (solved or not) they might even end the dance the way it should have been done the last time: the hard way, by negotiations.

Yes, I don't expect that Aegon must die even if he and Dany are going to dance. They could be at each other's throat and then see reason. Sort of a reverse of the Rhaenyra-Aegon scene on Dragonstone where everybody expects Dany is going to feed the pretender to Drogon ... and then she offers him his hand in friendship.

4 hours ago, Morte said:

I'm afraid we will not get another (eighth) book, or if, than just because he messed up and kept the pace of ADwD. I don't know if he can wrap things up well enough to not make it look cheap.

I'm always taking the perspective of the story and its scope, not the possibility of it actually being written. But this book series would be an utter joke if everything were wrapped up too quickly.

It is the complexity that makes it compelling and that has to play out.

1 hour ago, sifth said:

To be honest what effect the dragon horn has on Dany’s dragons, is probably the question I’m most looking forward to being answered.

Sure enough. That's one of the biggest mysteries at this point and our inability to answer it greatly affects our ability to predict the future story. Nearly everything could happen there because it is magic and we don't understand the rules at all.

I must say, though, that the one reference to the hell-horns of Valyria in FaB doesn't make me look to Victarion's plan with confidence (ditto with Moqorro talking about the glory that's awaiting him). Dany isn't there. She won't hear the horn. It isn't going to be her doom. But Vic is there. He certainly will hear the horn. And it could very well be the last thing he hears in his life.

36 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I expect she’ll want to settle accounts with the Ghiscari slavers permanently, before leaving.  Nor do I see any route West that doesn’t involve the conquest of Volantis, and the cities in between that city and Meereen.  She’d need massive naval resources to reach Westeros, and only Volantis could supply them.  And a slave uprising in Volantis seems pretty well-seeded. There are plenty of people among her followers who understand sieges, even if the Dothraki don’t.  That’s all going to keep her in Essos well past a couple of chapters, even if she’s moving West.

All that could only happen once she has returned to Meereen - she will spend at least half her chapters in the book with the Dothraki and her plans to take them over. This cannot be rushed or it is going to be the cheapest, silliest plot imaginable. All the Dothraki are not a bunch of decadent slavers selling warrior slaves who can be turned against their masters. Dany has no means at all to force the Dothraki to bend to her rule.

And while there are hints about a hidden or underground matriarchal rule in the religious sphere ... the dosh khaleen do not command the khals. She can take them over, but it won't be easily done and not quickly written.

The pace can take up if we see a parallel story development. Dany in Vaes Dothrak taking over the Dothraki while her people deal with the Ghiscari first and then continue her agenda in her name and bring freedom to the slaves in Volantis and the other Free Cities. The tiger soldiers will certainly push for a revolution in Volantis and they and (presumably) Moqorro will call the shots in Slaver's Bay once they arrive. They have the largest fleet and the largest army.

But even then they will need effort and persuasion to convince Daenerys to join them in all that - and to go to Westeros of all places. That's where Tyrion and Marwyn and Quaithe and Moqorro and whoever else is going to visit her will have to deliver.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SeanF said:

@Lord Varysi guess her supporters in Meereen (as well as people like Tyrion, Victarion, Moqorro, Tatters) might carry out a purge of the Great Masters and their supporters, and destroy Yunkai before she returns.

Most definitely. I expect if the coalition there holds together we'll first see the destruction of Yunkai and the punishment/cleansing of New Ghis, followed by the journey to Volantis on the insistence of the Volantene slave soldiers. Because, again - once they are there and rebel they will call the shots, not any of the others.

They outnumber all the other forces combined.

And if there are dragonriders they will search for Daenerys ... they won't wait for her return. I mean - keep in mind that none of them even know that she is still alive. Moqorro might tell folks that she lives, claiming he has seen her in visions but not everybody has to believe this.

Overall, I think Tyrion might suggest a campaign like this - to keep alive the spirit of Dany's cause and to distract the people from the thought that she might never return. But they do have to find her if they want to save this movement unless nobody else ends up usurping it - which a dragonrider certainly could (try to) do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, SeanF said:

Conquest takes time.  It took Genghis Khan two years to overrun Khwarazm;  Alexander three years to overthrow Darius.  And those were lightning fast conquests.

The conquest of Westeros? Sure, and that'll happen in Westeros. Each city state in Essos doesn't need more than a single chapter or much of a co-ordinated strategy. It's "ok this city is taken, we'll meet at the next to discuss how we are going to take that one." It's designed that way, for Dany to steam roll and seem like (and think herself) an irresistible force. We'll get more than a chapter each, but probably not much more.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

GRRM could do something like this, ignoring everyone and every plot built up in Essos, or solving it all with one chapter of deus ex machina, but it would not be... how to put it? ... the best writing.

It won't be a single chapter but things will move like ASOS Dany IV and there will be nothing wrong with it. We were in the turn to fire and blood stage, and that's done, now it's the conquest of Essos.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Emphatically, I disagree about Dany's ability to command the Dothraki. Take Jorah in Game:

Quote
"A khal who cannot ride is no khal," said Jhogo.
"The Dothraki follow only the strong," Ser Jorah said. "I am sorry, my princess. There was no way to hold them."

 

Precisely because the Dothraki are not mindless followers is why they are going to follow Dany. Simply seeing her with Drogon is going to give them pause, but it depends on how long Drogon stays with her, i.e. does he fly away again? If she keeps Drogon at her side, she will have a lot easier time persuading the Dothraki to follow her. They aren't going to be able to deny her strength, or what they view as strength.

This may be a Dream thought rather than a Winds thought but:

Spoiler

As I read and think about the books and show, especially in the light of GRRM's recent blog post, I tend to think about the general "feel" of what the show writers were going for, regardless of its success, and how that may apply to the book.  I know not everyone agrees with that approach and that's fine.  However, something that I thought of with the final season and the "Bells" episode where Dany burns King's Landing was that the show never showcased how the Dothraki put bells in their hair so that their enemies hear them when they ride into battle. For that reason, I feel like the bells are foreshadowing King's Landing ringing the bells in surrender, but what will be interesting is that the Dothraki are not going to view the Bells as a sign of surrender, but a sign of war and that very well may force Dany's hand. Just a thought.

On Winds as a whole, of particular interest to me is Martin's "throwaway" lines that at first glance don't appear to mean anything, only for them to be pregnant with meaning later on. I have been trying to find some of these rich lines to see if I can catch things that I may have missed. Here are some things that I found over time.

1. I believe Euron Greyjoy is Urrathon Nightwalker from Qarth.  We know glass candles were burning in Urrathon Nightwalker's house, and we have strong reason to suspect that Euron has a glass candle. We know that Euron captured Pyat Pree within a fortnight of Dany leaving Qarth, which puts him in relative proximity to her and to Qarth.  If he has been exiled from the Iron Islands for years and has been sailing on the silence, it makes sense that he does have some homebase, so to speak. In the World of Ice and Fire book, there is a legend of Urrathon Goodbrother, an Iron Island king whose first act was to order the old king's sons to be put to death, which is oddly similar to Euron. I tend to not use the World book as textual backing, but I think it does add a tidbit that isn't needed but certainly hints at Euron being Urrathon.

2. In Melisandre's chapter in Dance, she mentions that the strongest glamors are built of things from the person who is being imitated. She specifically notes a bag of finger bones. Davos lost his bag of finger bones at Blackwater, but something about her bringing this little tidbit up made me wonder - does she have someone moving about, impersonating Davos? I will be the first to admit this is a little tinfoily, but I would welcome thoughts on this in particular.

3. Something that started bothering me more after I read Fire and Blood was that the Hightowers are oddly nonpresent given how much they used to figure into Westerosi politics. So I started looking up references to the Hightowers. We know that Gerold/the White Bull was Lord Commander of Aerys' Kingsguard. We know that Jorah was married to Lord Leyton's youngest daughter Lynesse. But the part that gets me is when we learn that Lord Leyton has not descended the Hightower in almost a decade and is locked up there with the Mad Maid reading spell books. Then there is the throwaway line about the myth you can see the Wall from the top of the Hightower. Maybe that is not a myth? Or maybe they are connected? I have wondered if the Wall falling may have to do with Euron's attack on Oldtown. Perhaps if the Hightower falls, so does the Wall?  Who is the Mad Maid?

4. Marwyn - We know he has been to Asshai and knew Mirri Maz Duur. There are frequent references to him with Qyburn, which is unsettling. There is also a throwaway line when Asha returns to the Iron Islands for the Kingsmoot. She is talking to Rodrik and he mentions he is reading a book that Marwyn wrote after having found some pages from Signs and Portents, prophecies from before the Doom. A final one is that there were rumors he killed a man with his bare hands - oddly specific. Not just killed a man, but with his hands. Is it just a descriptor or is it hinting at something else?

5. Archmaester Walgrave - he thinks Pate is Cressen, who died in the prologue to Clash. Then there is his lock box: 

Quote

 

The hardest part had been getting down on his hands and knees to pull the strongbox from underneath Archmaester Walgrave's bed. Though the box was stoutly made and bound with iron, its lock was broken. Maester Gormon had suspected Pate of breaking it, but that wasn't true. Walgrave had broken the lock himself, after losing the key that opened it.
Inside, Pate had found a bag of silver stags, a lock of yellow hair tied up in a ribbon, a painted miniature of a woman who resembled Walgrave (even to her mustache), and a knight's gauntlet made of lobstered steel. The gauntlet had belonged to a prince, Walgrave claimed, though he could no longer seem to recall which one. When Pate shook it, the key fell out onto the floor.

 

I am sure I will think of more, but these are just a few thoughts that have been filling my mind. I wonder how they may apply to Winds or the future.

4. 


 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...