House of the Dragon Flood Gates Open

[C.T. Phipps]

I mean, as I mentioned, I assumed Martin was going to have Cersei burn it down.

It's ALL THERE.

* Jaime is the younger brother who kills Cersei

* Cersei is becoming more and more Aerys like

* All the wildfire scattered around the city

* Cersei trapped like a fornered rat like Aerys

* Cersei will make the order to burn the city

* Jaime will strangle her

I mean...I can't be the only one who sees this set up.

[C.T. Phipps]

1 minute ago, SeanF said:

The two D's had not the slightest clue about military affairs.  No general at any point in history would have hesitated to make straight for the capital, and to storm it, in the event that no surrender was given.

That's the thing.

There's also no reason for Daenerys to begin randomly burning peasants either. She does it solely to make her a "bad guy."

Not even a "Daenerys hears the peasants praying for the death of the incest queen" or something.

[Vaith]

2 minutes ago, SeanF said:

The two D's had not the slightest clue about military affairs.  No general at any point in history would have hesitated to make straight for the capital, and to storm it, in the event that no surrender was given.

Dany has an advantage to be way more humane than most by focusing on the defences and the residence of the commander-in-chief as the sole participant with an aerial advantage, and pretty much did achieve surrender even when she'd lost two dragons and more than half her forcess.

She has more of an advantage than Aegon the Conqueror ever did too by taking down a recent usurper who just dodged a trial for regicide by purging all the Faith from the city and still apparently being able to spawn some court of lickspittles. There was nothing stopping Dany from taking Drogon to the Red Keep in early Season 7 and going 'alright, surrender or your queen will be dragon dinner'

[Angel Eyes]

12 minutes ago, SeanF said:

The two D's had not the slightest clue about military affairs.  No general at any point in history would have hesitated to make straight for the capital, and to storm it, in the event that no surrender was given.

I guess that would make me look just as wimpy as Tyrion; my thought would have been to land in friendly territory, get the Westerosi allies to mobilize; either start with the Dornish at Sunspear or from Oldtown, spread like a virus northward, cutting Cersei off from reinforcements in the Westerlands, stuff like that.

Speaking of which, why didn't Daenerys land in Dorne of all places where she'd have allies right off the bat and wouldn't have to reckon too much at sea with Euron? Landing in Dragonstone at near spitting distance means that she's landing in hostile territory. She lands in Dorne, she wouldn't have to deal with Euron as much since she would have had to pass Dorne to reach Dragonstone.

[SeanF]

2 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

I guess that would make me look just as wimpy as Tyrion; my thought would have been to land in friendly territory, get the Westerosi allies to mobilize; either start with the Dornish at Sunspear or from Oldtown, spread like a virus northward, cutting Cersei off from reinforcements in the Westerlands, stuff like that.

Speaking of which, why didn't Daenerys land in Dorne of all places where she'd have allies right off the bat and wouldn't have to reckon too much at sea with Euron? Landing in Dragonstone at near spitting distance means that she's landing in hostile territory.

While it was never spelled out, and there's no way that an island the size of Dragonstone could support 100,000 soldiers, one would expect a Targaryen to get a lot of support in the Crownlands, and seizing Dragonstone would basically cut off all traffic by sea, to and from the capital.

In reality, any commander would have to land their forces at multiple ports, and islands, in order to feed them. 

[Angel Eyes]

1 minute ago, SeanF said:

While it was never spelled out, and there's no way that an island the size of Dragonstone could support 100,000 soldiers, one would expect a Targaryen to get a lot of support in the Crownlands, and seizing Dragonstone would basically cut off all traffic by sea, to and from the capital.

In reality, any commander would have to land their forces at multiple ports, and islands, in order to feed them. 

But it didn't cut off traffic since Euron was able to intercept Yara at sea.

 

[SeanF]

2 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

But it didn't cut off traffic since Euron was able to intercept Yara at sea.

 

What ought to have happened is once Dany burned a few ships from the air, no one would want to sail past Dragonstone.

[The Bard of Banefort]

I expect that Dany will be attacking Aegon in the books, not Cersei.

To continue with the WWII example, the war didn’t made the US and Soviet Union best friends. They went back to publicly hating each other the second Japan surrendered (and privately long before then). I expect the war against the Others will be similar in that respect.

There is another option that I haven’t seen considered though: perhaps Daenerys doesn’t help the North fight the Others. Maybe she continues the war with Aegon/Cersei/Euron instead. If dragon fire worked on the Others, it would be too easy, narratively speaking, to defeat them. No matter what happens to Dany, that’s one part of the show I’m willing to bet will be the same in the books. The dragons will not be effective against them.

[SeanF]

4 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I expect that Dany will be attacking Aegon in the books, not Cersei.

To continue with the WWII example, the war didn’t made the US and Soviet Union best friends. They went back to publicly hating each other the second Japan surrendered (and privately long before then). I expect the war against the Others will be similar in that respect.

There is another option that I haven’t seen considered though: perhaps Daenerys doesn’t help the North fight the Others. Maybe she continues the war with Aegon/Cersei/Euron instead. If dragon fire worked on the Others, it would be too easy, narratively speaking, to defeat them. No matter what happens to Dany, that’s one part of the show I’m willing to bet will be the same in the books. The dragons will not be effective against them.

If Cersei is still in power, after the defeat of the Others, people are going to be pretty united in wanting to get rid of her, whatever happens next.

The dragons were almost invincible/ineffective, entirely at the whim of the show runners.  Rather like the scorpions.

We do have Dany's dream of fighting the Others, before Astapor (even though she doesn't know what they are), so I expect she'll play a part.  The dragons aren't actually very big, in the books, and will only have had  a year or two more growth, by the time Dany gets to Westeros. They're probably effective enough against wights, which burn, but other tactics will be needed against the Others .  But, they could transport Dany (and other riders) North of the Wall, if that's where a blow against the Others has to be struck.

[Lord Varys]

37 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Do you really think D&D, who still refuse to answer any questions about RamSan seven years later, would have the balls to turn Daenerys—a pop culture feminist icon with a cult following—into a villain who gets shanked by her boyfriend if it wasn’t George’s idea? (Hell, Sansa was still a fairly unpopular/divisive character at that point, and that still didn’t quell the backlash). Dany combing through the streets burning everyone row by row was probably an exaggeration done to make Jon more morally unambiguous for killing her, but I do not believe that they would have had the guts to do something like that if they didn’t believe there was going to be the same heel-turn in the books.

Who cares about that? They also completely gutted Jaime's story, turned Tyrion into a super hero, Bran into a laughingstock, Sansa into rape victim, etc.

It is certainly conceivable that Jon murders Daenerys ... but I don't think that's very likely. (Honestly, I don't think Zombie Jon will be around to do anything once the Others are dealt with.) But this is something that's done for shock value. If she is murdered, I find Tyrion killing her out of jealousy for more likely. And there is no chance that this is done 'to stop further atrocities' ... and most certainly not to avenge 'innocent townspeople' because they would be viewed as foul traitors by anyone in camp 'We fight the Others together' would view the guys who refused to help as people who deserve mercy.

Especially not after what these people will have gone through at this point. Everybody is a villain already. Tyrion is a foul murderer, Sansa helps to poison her own cousin, Bran is an abominable mind rapist and cannibal, Arya is a serial killer, Jon Snow is becoming a kind of zombie. So far Daenerys is actually relatively mild, merely commanding or authorizing brutal things, but not losing her humanity by actually doing horrible things with her own hands.

43 minutes ago, C.T. Phipps said:

I am envisioning Game of Thrones as basically having a Fire and Blood treatment. George R.R. Martin writing 20-50 pages of the rough number of events that are supposed to happen in the books (before he started expanding things left and right). So I fully expect Bran to be King, Daenerys to die at Jon's hands (the prophecy of AA and his wife), and Jon to be exiled beyond the wall afterward.

That is kind of naive. Whatever treatment or plans George has involve much more plots and stories that made it into the show. Best example would be the Shireen burning which most likely will be done by Stannis and, perhaps, at Mel's behest, but not to get good weather to fight the Boltons ... but to do something much more important at a completely different place. Ditto with the 'Hold the Door' moment. That should play out very differently, too. And as the chapters are written and rewritten the story actually plays out, ever changing and expanding, never mind what George may have intended to write ten years ago.

Ditto with Bran at the end. I can see him as the de facto god of Westeros - a nearly immortal guardian who watches over the people to ensure they behave properly, prepared to intervene if they start to ruin things. But as an actual king doing tax policies and the like? Sitting in council, presiding over tourneys, throwing golden coins to the smallfolk? Not bloody likely. He is still a preteen child and a cripple. Whatever he becomes, he cannot be a mundane king in this world. People would be terrified by him and his abilities - his servants would smother him in his sleep the first moment they got the chance.

The books have the potential for Aegon and Arianne to have a child or even for a miracle child of Jon and Dany to survive them - the show cut and rushed things, so there was no potential for a less ridiculous ending, but George does have time for that. Just as he will also likely continue the male line of House Stark through Rickon.

The show completely cut the whole 'the dragon has to heads' thing - whatever that means - and the Ahor Ahai thing already happened in AGoT when Dany birthed the dragons. Azor Ahai killed his Nissa Nissa for his burning sword - to become a hero, basically, not to do his heroic acts or finish the big bad. If Jon had to do something similar he would have done it already, like Dany, or he would likely have to do it before he even meets Daenerys.

However, the heroine, hero, heroes might still have to give up their own life/lives in the last battle. They might (all) die. But not to provide somebody else with a magical tool.

36 minutes ago, Vaith said:

I honestly see no logical reason why King's Landing would be the 'scouring of the Shire'. Dany will have enough troops to try to curbstomp whoever's on the throne when she get there. The reason why she didn't simply decimate Cersei in Season 7 Episode 2 with all her Dothraki, Unsullied, dragons, vs one city with no mass produced scorpions was Tyrion giving her bad advice as D&D wanted to drag out that conflict. It seems like Benioff and Weiss were the ones who wanted to make the battle for the throne the big final battle.

That is true. There is no chance that Daenerys, if she actually wants the Iron Throne when she arrives in Westeros, is not going to just land outside the gates with her armada and take it. And then she will have it. Case closed.

If she were not to take it after her landing because she wants to focus on the Others first, they defeat them (in part) with her help and the help of her armies, and she survives the fighting ... then whoever held KL when she landed would be in no position to resist her rise to the throne if she wants it then.

The finale of the book series won't be about the stupid iron chair.

The factions who might sack or storm KL at this point are more likely those led by Aegon and Euron since they are still very much after the Iron Throne. But Daenerys is less likely to come to Westeros because of the throne ... nor very likely to be obsessed with it once she learns about the Others, etc.

37 minutes ago, SeanF said:

The two D's had not the slightest clue about military affairs.  No general at any point in history would have hesitated to make straight for the capital, and to storm it, in the event that no surrender was given.

They take on dragon warfare was equally nonsensical. I'm sure HotD will face massive problems because of their magical anti-dragon crossbows because the audience won't consider dragons that big of a deal. In George's world Meraxes' death was literally a once in a severel lifetimes lucky shot. A miracle, basically. And Dany dragons are still very young and thus much faster than the huge elder dragons. To hit them with anything while in the air will be virtually impossible.

[Lord Varys]

41 minutes ago, C.T. Phipps said:

I mean, as I mentioned, I assumed Martin was going to have Cersei burn it down.

It's ALL THERE.

* Jaime is the younger brother who kills Cersei

* Cersei is becoming more and more Aerys like

* All the wildfire scattered around the city

* Cersei trapped like a fornered rat like Aerys

* Cersei will make the order to burn the city

* Jaime will strangle her

I mean...I can't be the only one who sees this set up.

Cersei is very likely going to be killed by Jaime. But most likely not in KL because there is no way she can take over the city, not with Aegon and Euron and eventually Daenerys wanting to take it.

She has no troops, no supporters, and she will never gain either because she has no claim to the throne. All she can hope for is to cling to power in the West and cause more trouble if she can raise another host of Westermen.

If something like that were to happen it might happen if she ends up marrying Euron and they are able to take KL from whoever holds it at that point - Aegon or perhaps even Daenerys after she marches against the Others.

But in context I don't think this kind of thing is fitting for Cersei. She will never be a ruler in her own right, never be in a position whether it will be 'her throne' or 'death'. Could be more fitting to see Rhaegar's golden boy end up at that place, emulating his grandfather.

21 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

To continue with the WWII example, the war didn’t made the US and Soviet Union best friends. They went back to publicly hating each other the second Japan surrendered (and privately long before then). I expect the war against the Others will be similar in that respect.

That is a very bad comparison, since there were ideological and geopolitical differences there ... whereas the Westerosi are pretty much a single people living in a feudal monarchy, and the only people who matter politically are the heavily interrelated scions of the ruling dynasty.

21 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

There is another option that I haven’t seen considered though: perhaps Daenerys doesn’t help the North fight the Others. Maybe she continues the war with Aegon/Cersei/Euron instead. If dragon fire worked on the Others, it would be too easy, narratively speaking, to defeat them. No matter what happens to Dany, that’s one part of the show I’m willing to bet will be the same in the books. The dragons will not be effective against them.

The dragons will play a big role in the fight against the Others, but most likely not the decisive role. The dragonriders will be the leaders of the mortal armies, the focal points around which people can gather, and the means to cross great distances to help beleaguered allies. But while the dragons should have great trouble burning structures caked in snow ... the Others and their wights are magical creatures, imbued with ice magic. And the dragons are fire made flesh. Dragonfire is going to make short work out of Others and wights both. It cannot be any different. They will be greatly effective against them. Which is why we can assume that the Children eradicated the native dragons of Westeros around the time or shortly after they came up with the Others plan (or they came up with the plan after the First Men had already eradicated the Westerosi dragons). But the Others and their wights are not the heart of the problem. That's at the Heart of Winter.

If anyone were to have to get there to do something there ... they would have to fly there. Nobody can walk up there, nor ride an elk there. As things start, this seems to be territory where human life is (no longer) possible because it is that cold there.

Which is why I think it is pretty much a given that the fire-imbued, Melisandre-like Jon Snow will have to mount his dragon to fly up there, do what he has to do there ... and never return.

[The Bard of Banefort]

On a different note, given the current state of Warner Bros., I’m starting to think the Yi Ti spin-off isn’t going to see the light of day.

[C.T. Phipps]

Quote

Cersei is very likely going to be killed by Jaime. But most likely not in KL because there is no way she can take over the city, not with Aegon and Euron and eventually Daenerys wanting to take it.

Aegon will never sit on the Iron Throne. He's going to be exposed as a pretender well before this, I'm sure. I wouldn't be surprised if he's killed by Jon once this happens right before his greyscale gets him.

The biggest revelation that I took from D&D's treatment is that Aegon is a miniboss not a final boss.

[The Dragon Demands]

On 8/1/2022 at 11:52 PM, The Bard of Banefort said:

Did they say why they weren't interested? Was it because of how GOT ended?

Yeah, I think that sort of thing is based on demand. If the show takes off, media outlets will be looking to capitalize on it. But it's very rare for a show to have as many character analyses or fun "fluff" pieces (i.e. "What type of music would these characters listen to in real life?") as GOT had. I also suspect that whatever HBO puts out between now and the premiere is going to be a reconfiguration of what we've already seen. They're not going to want to give too much away. As it is, they're only begrudgingly admitting that Alicent is Viserys' wife in interviews. 

Well…we can only hope (shrug)

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, C.T. Phipps said:

Aegon will never sit on the Iron Throne. He's going to be exposed as a pretender well before this, I'm sure. I wouldn't be surprised if he's killed by Jon once this happens right before his greyscale gets him.

Nope, no way that this is just a pointless filler. Even if George hadn't hinted at 'the Second Dance of the Dragons' years ago, it would make no sense to build up all the Dornish and Ironborn and Aegon plotlines ... to just continue things with bloody Cersei. Then we would have gotten a plot where Cersei had to slowly overcome any obstacles in her path, pushing aside and ousting rivals, defeating enemies, to eventually become the leader of a coalition of loyal supporters with sufficient strength and determination to challenge a Targaryen restoration. That way she would have slowly deveopled into Dany's big rival.

But that she is not. She is a joke. Still dangerous, not never the leader of a broader anti-Targaryen coalition.

At this point it is pretty clear that Dany's big Westerosi rivals will be Aegon and, perhaps especially, Arianne.

But, of course, this doesn't mean Aegon is going to be the final big bad. That's the Others and whatever power is behind them. Not some mortal guy. The mortal big bad likely will be Euron in any case, considering who and what he seems to be. This guy is no small distraction, either, but the most dangerous man yet alive. And a bloody sorcerer whose powers might only increase overtime.

4 minutes ago, C.T. Phipps said:

The biggest revelation that I took from D&D's treatment is that Aegon is a miniboss not a final boss.

That is a big error on your part. They took aspects of the Aegon story and moved them to other characters. Cersei got the Golden Company and the Iron Throne and Jon Aegon's blood claim.

Whatever story Cersei has left in the books didn't make it into the show ... aside from the Euron link. But that will go very different in the books - we will likely see Cersei fleeing KL right before Aegon can take it, to meet and marry Euron on the Arbor after he has taken the island. And from there they will plan a two-pronged attack against their enemies on the continent. Cersei will return to Casterly Rock to raise another army, and Euron will move his armada to take KL from the sea ... or against Daenerys if she is going to come west before Euron can move his ships to KL.

It is still possible that Cersei may end up in the Red Keep again before the end ... if she and Euron can take KL. But she won't remain there in a position of power now. That is impossible. George did everything in his power to make it so.

But depending how the Euron plot goes ... book Cersei is more a possible ally of Dany's than her enemy. Dany won't kill any of Cersei's surviving children. Dany won't take the Iron Throne from her. Dany didn't murder Joffrey (and Cersei will learn the truth about that eventually). That's something Aegon and the Dornish and the bloody Tyrells did to Cersei. And if the same people will also oppose Dany's rise to the throne ... then Cersei Lannister might end up offering Daenerys Targaryen her help if that means she will get her revenge.

(Of course, that's a theoretical prospect considering Dany is also very likely to ally with Tyrion. But if Cersei eventually learns the truth about Joff's murder her hatred of the dwarf might cool down somewhat. Cersei is in for a big surprise which is likely chilling her to the core, turning her unhinged paranoia into an icy, methodical desire for vengeance. Once she realizes how Olenna and her allies have played her like a fiddle, how they turned her against her own family ... she is going to be more angry than ever before.)

[C.T. Phipps]

Yeah, I completely disagree this is the way the books will go and Cersei is still endgame beacuse of the Mad King parallels but we'll have to see.

[Lord Varys]

35 minutes ago, C.T. Phipps said:

Yeah, I completely disagree this is the way the books will go and Cersei is still endgame beacuse of the Mad King parallels but we'll have to see.

Those parallels are superficial at best ... and merely there for Jaime's benefit to get an uneasy feeling around Cersei. He is remembered of Aerys' madness when he watches her burn the tower. But she has literally nothing in common with the Mad King. Doesn't get aroused by watching something burn. And she only burned the Tower of the Hand to celebrate her victory over the men who dominated her all her life. And so far she never actually wanted to or did burn a living person.

Cersei isn't a character set up for dominance and rule ... but rather to become a force of vengeance and destruction, kind of a living version of Lady Stoneheart.

[SeanF]

Yes, if Cersei is chased out of the city by Aegon/Arianne, and their supporters murder Tommen and Myrcella, she might well decide that my enemy’s enemy is my friend.  And, I think she’d be intrigued to meet Rhaegar’s sister.   Had she married Rhaegar, she might even have ended up raising Dany with her own children.

[C.T. Phipps]

While I'm already questioning whether Darkstar will kill Aegon and or Myrcella, I'm going to move back to House of the Dragon.

Anyone think after the Dance of the Dragons the show will move to new time periods?

 

[Vaith]

3 hours ago, C.T. Phipps said:

While I'm already questioning whether Darkstar will kill Aegon and or Myrcella, I'm going to move back to House of the Dragon.

Anyone think after the Dance of the Dragons the show will move to new time periods?

 

Maybe the regency, but a show becoming an anthology after about five seasons would be rather unprecedented. If this happens, there'll probably be a new title.