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US politics: Red Tide Rising


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Dems making gains in the Senate is optimistic, but not ridiculous.  The map and matchups are favorable (the democrats have the better candidate in virtually every race).  It would take a big over-performance for the Dems to hold the House.  The last time that polls/expectations whiffed that badly was 1998, when Republicans were expected to make big gains but didn't because people were sick of hearing about the Lewinsky affair and the Republican circus accompanying it.  

However, the national environment in 1998 was generally positive, when today it is very much not. 

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WaPo (limited clicks) opinion article about the proposed reforms to the Electoral Count Act. 

 

Quote

 

Here’s the basic principle at play: The aim is to close off manipulation of the process at both the state and congressional ends. In the proposal, Congress bars state legislatures and governors at the front end from breaking their own laws (or the Constitution) dictating the appointment of electors. If they do so anyway, it triggers automatic judicial review and then requires Congress to count the correct electors at the back end...

The process of writing this bill has revealed that if enough actors are determinedly corrupt and dominate all corners of the system, there’s no bulletproof set of protections. In the end, making this as difficult as possible may be the only option.

The bill does that, according to Adav Noti, vice president and legal director of the Campaign Legal Center. But, Noti cautions, if all those actors “conspire to subvert an election, there’s not a whole lot you can put on paper that will stop that.”

 

I hope this passes (not terribly optimistic, but it's not impossible).  Yes, in the end the Supreme Court is still the ultimate arbiter over whether a slate of electors is valid or not.  But that's fairly unavoidable, and this does throw up roadblocks to prevent a lot of the kind of end-arounds that Trump was attempting in 2020. 

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On morning TV today there was discussion of a poll showing Republicans and Independents rank inflation as the biggest issue, while Democrats rank abortion as the biggest issue. Meanwhile Paul Krugman was saying that inflation is almost surely on its way down.  So perhaps if he's right and Independents move abortion and January 6 higher on their list of importance than inflation, Democratic candidates can do a lot better than expected. But I don't think anyone really can make a good prediction at this point. I wonder if all of the major shocks to the body politic over the last few years have shook things up enough so that past indicators will be less reliable predictors than they used to be. 

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Dems making gains in the Senate is optimistic, but not ridiculous.  The map and matchups are favorable (the democrats have the better candidate in virtually every race).  It would take a big over-performance for the Dems to hold the House.  The last time that polls/expectations whiffed that badly was 1998, when Republicans were expected to make big gains but didn't because people were sick of hearing about the Lewinsky affair and the Republican circus accompanying it.  

However, the national environment in 1998 was generally positive, when today it is very much not. 

After being repeatedly Manchined, Democratic voters are also hugely disillusioned.  Why should they turn out? 

I am hopeful the Dems can pick up the PA seat and, maybe, WI, and hold AZ, GA and NV.  NC is a big stretch.  Ohio, we need a miracle.  Forget about Florida and Iowa.  What's left? 

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15 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

After being repeatedly Manchined, Democratic voters are also hugely disillusioned.  Why should they turn out? 

I am hopeful the Dems can pick up the PA seat and, maybe, WI, and hold AZ, GA and NV.  NC is a big stretch.  Ohio, we need a miracle.  Forget about Florida and Iowa.  What's left? 

Democrats could nominate a ham sandwich for the Senate seat in Wisconsin and I'd be voting for it. 

Didn't Demmings take in more campaign money recently than Marco?  I know it's Florida, but for some reason Marco seems vulnerable...

Nothing is ever a given in this climate, but picking up PA and retaining the seat in GA should be no brainers.  Should be.  Can't rely on it, but watching the Oz and Walker campaigns...no reasonable human being should be casting a vote for either...so hopefully there are enough non MAGA crowd voting to offset the vote...

Same goes for Ohio, as Vance is another terrible human candidate.  I'd like to think Ohio knows better, but it's Ohio...

And what about Utah? If Evan McMullin said he'd at least caucus with Dems on some things?  Mike Lee likely holds on, but this is the sleeper upset, if there is one...other than Florida...

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32 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

After being repeatedly Manchined, Democratic voters are also hugely disillusioned.  Why should they turn out? 

I am hopeful the Dems can pick up the PA seat and, maybe, WI, and hold AZ, GA and NV.  NC is a big stretch.  Ohio, we need a miracle.  Forget about Florida and Iowa.  What's left? 

To take out Manchin’s lever of control?  His control and power exists only because of the current make up of the US Senate.  If Republicans gain control or if Democrats have a larger majority… Manchin’s catbird seat disappears.

Do, people not understand that?

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4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

To take out Manchin’s lever of control?  His control and power exists only because of the current make up of the US Senate.  If Republicans gain control or if Democrats have a larger majority… Manchin’s catbird seat disappears.

Do, people not understand that?

In all seriousness, no, I don't think they do.  Democratic voters expect the president to deliver, and are disappointed when he doesn't.  They didn't vote for Manchin after all.   And, in fairness, Biden did campaign on his long senate record and his ability to work with Republicans and DINOs to get things done. 

The reality is more messy than the Dems picking up 1 or 2 seats and abolishing the filibuster and getting their agenda enacted.  First off, the Dems will almost certainly lose the House.  The last time that happened, it took 8 years to win it back.  Second,  this is actually the best cycle for the Dems to pick up Senate seats for a while.  2024/2026, there are almost twice as many Dems up for reelection as Republicans if I remember correctly.  I doubt the Dems have much hope of recovering the Senate for 4 years. 

Third, even if the Dems do acquire unified government at some point in the future, there are many Dem Senators who softly support the filibuster and will try to save it.  

Of course, US politics will be transformed when the legislative filibuster falls.  But I think it will be less Berlin Wall and more death by a thousand cuts.  And I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that the first cut is delivered by President Ron DeSantis and a new Senate Majority leader in 2025.  For example, to enact a national abortion ban.  

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8 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

To take out Manchin’s lever of control?  His control and power exists only because of the current make up of the US Senate.  If Republicans gain control or if Democrats have a larger majority… Manchin’s catbird seat disappears.

Do, people not understand that?

People don't care for the most part. 

They know that they voted in dems who have control over everything and are still not getting anything done that they said they would. And now, with losing abortion access they're being asked to vote harder and that will somehow work?

In addition to that, they're also getting hit by very bad inflation, a shitty end to a shitty war, an invasion of a European country with no end in sight, global warming causing major disasters across the country, a pandemic with no end, and a guy who fistbumps someone he declared a pariah. The best hope is that they are still not following the news and the gas prices that much, because being informed about Manchin also means being informed about all the shitty other things going on.

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30 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Democrats could nominate a ham sandwich for the Senate seat in Wisconsin and I'd be voting for it. 

Didn't Demmings take in more campaign money recently than Marco?  I know it's Florida, but for some reason Marco seems vulnerable...

Nothing is ever a given in this climate, but picking up PA and retaining the seat in GA should be no brainers.  Should be.  Can't rely on it, but watching the Oz and Walker campaigns...no reasonable human being should be casting a vote for either...so hopefully there are enough non MAGA crowd voting to offset the vote...

Same goes for Ohio, as Vance is another terrible human candidate.  I'd like to think Ohio knows better, but it's Ohio...

And what about Utah? If Evan McMullin said he'd at least caucus with Dems on some things?  Mike Lee likely holds on, but this is the sleeper upset, if there is one...other than Florida...

Ending Mike Lee would be a dream come true.  Walker is dumb, and Oz is sleazy, but Mike Lee has that combination of sanctimoniousness and unctuousness that makes me shudder.   Is there anything worse than those who publicly profess their reverence for the US Constitution, and secretly try to overthrow it?

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54 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

People don't care for the most part. 

They know that they voted in dems who have control over everything and are still not getting anything done that they said they would. And now, with losing abortion access they're being asked to vote harder and that will somehow work?

In addition to that, they're also getting hit by very bad inflation, a shitty end to a shitty war, an invasion of a European country with no end in sight, global warming causing major disasters across the country, a pandemic with no end, and a guy who fistbumps someone he declared a pariah. The best hope is that they are still not following the news and the gas prices that much, because being informed about Manchin also means being informed about all the shitty other things going on.

That’s ridiculous.  That seems like saying “you won the White House and I want a Hippogriff.  If you can’t… with all your power… provide me a Hippogriff I refuse to support you in the midterms!”

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1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

To take out Manchin’s lever of control?  His control and power exists only because of the current make up of the US Senate.  If Republicans gain control or if Democrats have a larger majority… Manchin’s catbird seat disappears.

Do, people not understand that?

There are other senators that Manchema give cover to who would rotate into that seat.  Not saying there a ton of voters out there looking at it that way but I'd guess a nonzero number of progressive voters are skeptical that it's only the two of them who are roadblocks.  And combined with what Kal said above it's not that difficult to see why people are somewhat apathetic about turning up to pull a blue lever for the midterms.  In a normal midterm year incumbent turnout is low.  This isn't a normal year.  

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38 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That’s ridiculous.  That seems like saying “you won the White House and I want a Hippogriff.  If you can’t… with all your power… provide me a Hippogriff I refuse to support you in the midterms!”

It's not ridiculous if Biden had said he ran on a platform of giving people hippogriffs and a return to general ungulate normalcy, and bidens party all said they supported hippogriff friendly policies.

Even worse, they campaigned on being able to reach across the aisle and convince the anti hippogriff Republicans that they could find common ground.

 

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6 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

It's not ridiculous if Biden had said he ran on a platform of giving people hippogriffs and a return to general ungulate normalcy, and bidens party all said they supported hippogriff friendly policies.

Even worse, they campaigned on being able to reach across the aisle and convince the anti hippogriff Republicans that they could find common ground.

 

The circumstances giving Manchin the power he has are… very… unusual.  Even if Hippogriffs were promised they would have been contingent upon all circumstances making Hippogriffs possible.  

If people don’t see that they are behaving like 5 year olds.  Everything in politics is contingent.

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38 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The circumstances giving Manchin the power he has are… very… unusual.  Even if Hippogriffs were promised they would have been contingent upon all circumstances making Hippogriffs possible.  

If people don’t see that they are behaving like 5 year olds.  Everything in politics is contingent.

That's not how this works. Biden and Democrats made a lot of promises and they're failing to deliver. That's where the conversation begins and ends. Most people don't follow politics day to day and probably a majority of those who do more read headlines than articles. The public is wildly uninformed and rarely applies the level of nuance you described. 

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48 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The circumstances giving Manchin the power he has are… very… unusual.  Even if Hippogriffs were promised they would have been contingent upon all circumstances making Hippogriffs possible.  

If people don’t see that they are behaving like 5 year olds.  Everything in politics is contingent.

I agree with you about how people should be seeing Manchin and that it should really motivate them to turn out to vote for Democrats, especially in the Senate.

But I don't see the fact of many other people not understanding that is them "behaving like 5 year olds." Scot, you are a lawyer, for Pete's sake. You of course have an understanding of these things. How can you expect average voters, many of whom have only a high school diploma, to have the same sort of understanding of this that you do? I would think that most blue collar people, and even most lower level white collar people in this country, don't have the education to understand this and are focused on their day-to-day work and family responsibilities in a way that makes it difficult for them to be interested in how the details of the Senate work. I think we should be finding ways to help them understand rather than assume they have a personality flaw that prevents them from doing it. 

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22 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I agree with you about how people should be seeing Manchin and that it should really motivate them to turn out to vote for Democrats, especially in the Senate.

But I don't see the fact of many other people not understanding that is them "behaving like 5 year olds." Scot, you are a lawyer, for Pete's sake. You of course have an understanding of these things. How can you expect average voters, many of whom have only a high school diploma, to have the same sort of understanding of this that you do? I would think that most blue collar people, and even most lower level white collar people in this country, don't have the education to understand this and are focused on their day-to-day work and family responsibilities in a way that makes it difficult for them to be interested in how the details of the Senate work. I think we should be finding ways to help them understand rather than assume they have a personality flaw that prevents them from doing it. 

Mea Culpa.  

Of course you are correct.  It simply pisses me off when I see people blaming X when X has absolutely no control over Y.  Politics rewarding those who over promise… has always pissed me off.  That people don’t see that pisses me off… even more.

:grumble:

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