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US politics: Red Tide Rising


IheartIheartTesla

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2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Ron Fucking DeSantis everyone… Ron Fucking Desantis:

 

Good grief! What will the Shriners and so many fraternal organizations do now?  Going drag is their favorite go-to for any public celebration like parades and so on -- at least they certainly were where I grew up!  

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A very tiny petty part of me hopes de Satan goes totally off the rails in one of the GOP primaries against Graham. Just for the the look on Graham's face, and him then showing as much of a backbone as Ted Cruz, when the orange one went after his wife.

Pathetic creatures, the whole lot of them, not just Josh Hawley running away from masculinity, or whatever sales pitch he will try for this run.

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So as I mentioned when it was posted, this thread is very poorly titled.  In spite of inflation, now technically a recession, and Biden having a (slightly) worse approval than even Trump at this time in their presidencies, the red tide is certainly not rising right now - at all:

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For one, Democrats are outpacing President Joe Biden’s abysmal approval ratings in generic ballots: Slightly more than 43 percent of voters say that, if the election were held today, they would support Democrats in Congress, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Just over 44 percent said they would support Republicans.

Even influential Republican polls — including Americans for Prosperity, Echelon Insights, Chamber of Commerce, and Winning The Issues — recently found that Democrats were leading by between 3 and percentage 6 points. Democrats are also now favored to maintain control of the Senate, according to Decision Desk HQ. [...]

Democrats have a fundraising advantage heading into the fall in key Senate races, including in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and Ohio. They’re also outpacing the GOP among small-dollar donors: through their platform ActBlue, Democrats amassed $64 million in small donations in June, compared to Republicans’ $26.6 million through their platform, WinRed.

The GOP's lead in the generic ballot has dropped to 0.9% with RCP as well. 

In the Senate, it looks like the NRSC is already almost ready to pull the plug on the good Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, Mark Kelly has a huge war chest and a solid advantage over whomever comes out of the GOP primary in Arizona, Warnock holds a slight but consistent lead against Walker in Georgia, Mandela Barnes is a serious threat to Ron Johnson in Wisconsin - and his primary competitors literally cleared the field for him this month, plus even Beasley is competitive in North Carolina while -- surprise! -- JD Vance is concerning GOP operatives in Ohio.

Similar story with key governor races.  While, frustratingly, Kemp looks to have a solid lead against Abrams in Georgia, Mastriano is very unlikely to be the next governor of Pennsylvania, Whitmer looks like she'll cruise to reelection in Michigan because of the absolute shitshow that is the GOP primary there, and even Evers looks like a slight but consistent favorite in Wisconsin.

We're still three months out and plenty can change of course.  But this is quite extraordinary incompetence on behalf of the GOP.  Most of these problems are directly caused by nominating horrible candidates, and this isn't anything new - they shot themselves in the foot in 2012 and, to a lesser but still significant extent, 2010.  The Democratic Party catches a lot of shit for being incompetent - much of it deserved, to be sure.  But all of it pales in comparison to the GOP's now common tendency to self-sabotage favorable to very favorable electoral environments.  This is a big part of why I laugh (a lot) any time somebody tries to pretend the GOP is the more competent party.

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49 minutes ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

Man, SO much scary shit is happening right now with abortion laws--are we still not allowed to talk about it because @mormont is tired of hearing about people's struggles?

As I understand it Mormont objected to the posts in this thread that had shifted to a discussion on people's personal views about whether abortion should be legal. when "life begins", etc., that were not immediately related to political impact.  I do not think he would object to posts specifically about things like the election in Kansas tomorrow or how much the issue will directly impact the midterms.  

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33 minutes ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

I appreciate it Scot, it just seems so interconnected with our politics, I think there will be overlap. But if we must, we must.

We do not need a separate thread for abortion.  Again, oops, woman stuff, separate it out from what matters to men, what interests men.  No.  Just.  No.

Anyway, how does one separate out women dying from this shyte from the effect on the midterms, on surveillance, on travel, on mail. Gimme a break.

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Manchin was on Meet The Press on Sunday and refused to answer whether he wanted the Dems to win. "Look, I think people are tired of politics... It's not m,y decision...  I can work with Dems and Republicans..."

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1 hour ago, Zorral said:

We do not need a separate thread for abortion.  Again, oops, woman stuff, separate it out from what matters to men, what interests men.  No.  Just.  No.

Anyway, how does one separate out women dying from this shyte from the effect on the midterms, on surveillance, on travel, on mail. Gimme a break.

Thread is locked already.  Good call. 

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Wait a minute, they’re burying Ivana at a golf course for tax purposes? I’ve heard of goats being on golf courses for farm subsidies, but that’s next level.

Don't be silly. I'm sure it's also because the golf course now can't be seized by authorities.

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