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US politics: Red Tide Rising


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Thought Eric Holder's take on potential Trump prosecutions was worth sharing:

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Holder added that the state investigation is more straightforward, pointing to Trump’s infamous call to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger on Jan. 2, 2021, asking him to “find 11,780 votes.”

“My eyes are on Fulton County first. Look at the Justice Department in 2023,” Holder told the radio show.

Holder said the Justice Department’s criminal charges will likely come after the midterms given the long-standing precedent not to announce criminal charges during an election year.

Still, Holder told Sirius XM he believes Trump will “ultimately” be charged by the DOJ.

“My guess is that by the end of this process, you’re going to see indictments involving high-level people in the White House, you’re going to see indictments against people outside the White House who were advising them with regard to the attempt to steal the election,” Holder said.

 

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Pharma group leader says Dems who vote for reconciliation bill 'won't get a free pass'
PhRMA CEO Steve Ubl says the group is still fighting hard against the drug pricing provisions, but is making contingency plans — and promises — should reconciliation become law.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/04/head-of-top-pharma-group-says-dems-who-vote-for-bill-wont-get-a-free-pass-00049898

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Steve Ubl, who leads the nation’s top industry group for drugmakers, is offering a final salvo to Congress as Democratic lawmakers inch closer to passing their sweeping reconciliation package that includes drug pricing measures — and threatening swift retaliation if they don’t listen, he told POLITICO.

Ubl’s group, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, or PhRMA, and its 31 board members sent a letter to every member of Congress on Thursday afternoon, urging them to vote against the package.

PhRMA, not accustomed to losing legislative fights, has waged a multimillion-dollar advocacy campaign against the drug pricing measures, and is crafting contingency plans if they fail. In addition to hinting at running campaign ads against Democrats in tough races this fall, the industry is assessing its legal options and pondering future regulatory or legislative fixes.

“Regardless of the outcome in the coming weeks, this fight isn’t over,” Ubl said in an interview. “Few associations have all the tools of modern political advocacy at their disposal in the way that PhRMA does.”

 

 

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14 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

DeSantis being DeSantis - suspending a prosecutor who declined to enforce the abortion law. 

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on Thursday suspended an elected state attorney without pay, accusing him of neglecting his duties and incompetence for saying he would not prosecute anyone who sought or provided abortions. suspends Florida prosecutor for refusing to enforce abortion law (msn.com)

The scariest thing is Republicans are seeming to like him more than Trump. He's a true fascist--well, "true" in the sense that Trump was too impulsive to get his fascist worldview to stick. Desantis is much more disciplined. 

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33 minutes ago, DMC said:

Thought Eric Holder's take on potential Trump prosecutions was worth sharing:

 

I just don't see Trump ever getting any meaningful consequences. We've been waiting since...2016-17 when the first waves of criminal behavior started happening? 

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4 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

4M for Alex Jones. Not that it really matters, with all the bankruptcies, but seems compatively low to me.

 

Looks like I was right after all. More trials to come though.

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46 minutes ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

I just don't see Trump ever getting any meaningful consequences. We've been waiting since...2016-17 when the first waves of criminal behavior started happening? 

His criminal behaviors began long, long, long before that.  But he's always wiggled out of actually ever having a trial.

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48 minutes ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

The scariest thing is Republicans are seeming to like him more than Trump. He's a true fascist--well, "true" in the sense that Trump was too impulsive to get his fascist worldview to stick. Desantis is much more disciplined. 

The best case scenario for Republicans (and thus probably the worst case scenario for the country) is that Trump doesn't run in 2024 (for whatever reason), he and Desantis make nice and Desantis wins the nomination fairly easily.  I doubt old man Biden would come across very well in a campaign against Desantis. 

In contrast, I think that Biden can probably defeat Trump.  And if Trump runs and loses to Desantis in the primary, he is going to burn down the Republican party as much as he can.  Which would probably still work out terribly for the country, but might prevent Republicans from winning in 2024.  Although at that point who knows what happens, it will be violent and awful. 

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57 minutes ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

I just don't see Trump ever getting any meaningful consequences.

As I've said since Garland was nominated, neither do I.  But few have a more qualified opinion than Holder.  I do think he may be right about the DOJ ramping up investigations on those around Trump after the midterms.

5 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The best case scenario for Republicans (and thus probably the worst case scenario for the country) is that Trump doesn't run in 2024 (for whatever reason), he and Desantis make nice and Desantis wins the nomination fairly easily.  I doubt old man Biden would come across very well in a campaign against Desantis. 

An important variable of this BCS/WCS is Biden deciding to run for reelection.

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We don't know what the political landscape will look like in 2024 either.

We can make more or less qualified guesses. A few variables.

Midterm results. Will the Democrats be able to narrowly hold onto the House and the Senate?

Yes, that means, then Manchema is still a problem, but Republicans (other than Manchin) have very little means to block any legislation.

And just maybe, Democrats get a lucky break with Clarence kicking the proverbial bucket for another Supreme Court pick, to make it somewhat less crazy. But that's probably a bit too much to hope for.

Economic outlook. Looks bleak, but who knows. Maybe things look a lit gloomy in two years.

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5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

 will be going to prison. 

Hey, I am one of the less cynical people who read this thread, but I'd wait until Jones is actually charged with a criminal offense before making that statement. I can find articles saying he "could" be charged with perjury for his statements during the civil trial, but I'm not sure the authorities in  Texas will care enough to do it. Would be nice, but I'm somewhat skeptical. 

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3 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

Pharma group leader says Dems who vote for reconciliation bill 'won't get a free pass'
PhRMA CEO Steve Ubl says the group is still fighting hard against the drug pricing provisions, but is making contingency plans — and promises — should reconciliation become law.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/04/head-of-top-pharma-group-says-dems-who-vote-for-bill-wont-get-a-free-pass-00049898

 

I don't believe in hell but if there is one I hope this whole pharma group burns there.

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1 minute ago, Larry of the Lake said:

I don't believe in hell but if there is one I hope this whole pharma group burns there.

I feel like not enough is made of the fact that Manchin's daughter was the pharma CEO who lobbied to make EpiPens available in public places, while raising the price from $100 to $600 in ten years.

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

We don't know what the political landscape will look like in 2024 either.

We can make more or less qualified guesses. A few variables.

Midterm results. Will the Democrats be able to narrowly hold onto the House and the Senate?

Yes, that means, then Manchema is still a problem, but Republicans (other than Manchin) have very little means to block any legislation.

And just maybe, Democrats get a lucky break with Clarence kicking the proverbial bucket for another Supreme Court pick, to make it somewhat less crazy. But that's probably a bit too much to hope for.

Economic outlook. Looks bleak, but who knows. Maybe things look a lit gloomy in two years.

I'd say the upper end of realistic midterm outcomes is Democrats have 52 senate seats. That means holding all their incumbents, taking PA, and then taking one of WI/OH/NC (and it'd probably be WI). If they do that, both Manchin and Sinema can be ignored. However, I think that outcome is quite a bit more likely than Democrats holding the House; which seems unrealistic at this point. And no House means no more legislation anyway.

Bigger picture, yeah there's far too many unknown variables to make any accurate predictions about 2024 yet. Including just how many Republicans willing to subvert the election results get elected Governor or Secretary of State of swing states.

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The best case scenario for Republicans (and thus probably the worst case scenario for the country) is that Trump doesn't run in 2024 (for whatever reason), he and Desantis make nice and Desantis wins the nomination fairly easily.  I doubt old man Biden would come across very well in a campaign against Desantis. 

In contrast, I think that Biden can probably defeat Trump.  And if Trump runs and loses to Desantis in the primary, he is going to burn down the Republican party as much as he can.  Which would probably still work out terribly for the country, but might prevent Republicans from winning in 2024.  Although at that point who knows what happens, it will be violent and awful. 

In light of the prospect of heightened violence due to Republican Party machinations and Trump followers and whatever the else QAnon and those ilk and the other fascists who make up the Republican base these days...we received word today at work that they'll be announcing the Milwaukee is going to host the 2024 RNC.  I'm already trying to figure out how to get out of working that month.  Alternatively, I don't know if I've ever wanted a pandemic to break out again cancelling everything...

 

8 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'd say the upper end of realistic midterm outcomes is Democrats have 52 senate seats. That means holding all their incumbents, taking PA, and then taking one of WI/OH/NC (and it'd probably be WI). If they do that, both Manchin and Sinema can be ignored. However, I think that outcome is quite a bit more likely than Democrats holding the House; which seems unrealistic at this point. And no House means no more legislation anyway.

Bigger picture, yeah there's far too many unknown variables to make any accurate predictions about 2024 yet. Including just how many Republicans willing to subvert the election results get elected Governor or Secretary of State of swing states.

I really really hope you're right about Wisconsin.  I cannot stand Johnson and cannot wait to vote against him.  And I really really hope you're wrong about Ohio, and Vance is an absolute garbage candidate and worthy of vying for the worst candidate put forward by Republicans this cycle, along with Walker and Oz...

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13 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

I really really hope you're right about Wisconsin.  I cannot stand Johnson and cannot wait to vote against him.  And I really really hope you're wrong about Ohio, and Vance is an absolute garbage candidate and worthy of vying for the worst candidate put forward by Republicans this cycle, along with Walker and Oz...

Vance is awful, but Ohio is much redder than Wisconsin at this point. Johnson can lose in a slightly-better-than-neutral political environment for Democrats, which is not out of the question for this November thanks to anger over Dobbs. But it'd take a massive wave for Vance to lose, and I just don't see that. His awfulness means that Tim Ryan can probably do much better than statewide Democrats have done in a long time in Ohio; but getting the win is an extremely tall order. And I wouldn't trust any polls yet, when Ryan has been airing aids for weeks and Vance hasn't started yet (but thanks to cash from McConnell he will be soon).

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Yeah Ohio was 12.5 points redder than the nation in 2020.  That's more than double the lean of North Carolina, itself a very red state.  Vance just needs to improve from astonishingly bad to merely miserable and he'll win. 

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I think Ryan has a better chance in Ohio than the partisan lean and environment suggest.  Granted, they were favorable cycles, but Brown has won somewhat comfortably three times.  Even their Republican governors the last twelve years are distinctly anti-crazy.  And Ryan is running an emphatically centrist campaign - much more so than Brown.

Despite their respective partisan makeups, I'd say Ryan has a considerably better chance than Beasley in NC (but, yes, Barnes has the clear best shot in Wisconsin).

The other thing to note is this is all interconnected.  The NRSC is going to have to invest heavily to make up for Vance, and that's a zero sum game.

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2 hours ago, Ormond said:

Hey, I am one of the less cynical people who read this thread, but I'd wait until Jones is actually charged with a criminal offense before making that statement. I can find articles saying he "could" be charged with perjury for his statements during the civil trial, but I'm not sure the authorities in  Texas will care enough to do it. Would be nice, but I'm somewhat skeptical. 

Idk, they got their hands on a mountain of evidence and there’s a real chance he could also go down for fraud.

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