Who would become king after Baelor the Blessed if prince Viserys died during the Dance?

[The Merling King]

Who would become king after Baelor the blessed in 172AC if Prince Viserys died in the shipwreck during the dance of the dragons? Would we get an earlier Baratheon dynasty or would the Velaryons have the better claim at this point? What about the daughters of Aegon III?

[EggBlue]

well, even with Viserys alive and 10 yrs of Daena's isolation from public life , some thought she should inherit the throne. so , without Viserys on her way , she'd definitely become queen.

[The hairy bear]

Yeah, it would seem that Daena would be the most logical candidate. Particularly considering that, since Baelor himself had no intention of producing offspring, she would be the heir apparent. She would need to be married and produce heirs asap, and chosing her husband woud be probably the most important concern of whoever Baelor had chosen as his Hand.

[Ran]

Who says Baelor the Blessed would exist if Viserys died in the Dance? It's not entirely clear to me that Aegon would necessarily have survived Lord Peake's machinations without, at least to some degree, Viserys bolstering his brother's courage in the face of the siege of Maegor's Holdfast.

And for that matter, even if he had, would Daenaera Velaryon have survived? Or would she have conveniently died so that Peake's daughter could marry the king instead? I doubt we'd get a Baelor the Blessed then.

[Lord Varys]

George really has to settle Baelor's succession in the next volume of FaB at the point in time when it is decided that he won't father (legitimate) children. Baelor either must name an heir when he annuls his marriage to Daena ... or, at the latest, when he takes a septon's vows and thus makes it crystal clear for the entire world that he has no intention to take another wife.

In context it seems clear that Viserys would have then been the chosen and anointed Heir Apparent and Prince of Dragonstone.

One could still have Daena and the other girls challenging their uncle's rise upon Baelor's death ... but that would then be very hard if Viserys actually was the named heir of King Baelor.

George could also have Baelor refuse to name an heir ... or he could switch back and forth between his sisters and his uncle, ruling on his succession multiple times. But it wouldn't make sense to assume that court and council and Realm and Faith never pushed the king to rule on his own succession in absence of a child of his own body.

Although in light of the fact that Baelor imprisoned his sisters for nearly his entire reign the idea that he actually thought one of them could succeed him is, well, somewhat far-fetched.

1 hour ago, The Merling King said:

Who would become king after Baelor the blessed in 172AC if Prince Viserys died in the shipwreck during the dance of the dragons? Would we get an earlier Baratheon dynasty or would the Velaryons have the better claim at this point? What about the daughters of Aegon III?

If we had such a scenario then I think there would be more pressure on Baelor to marry and remain marry, which means he could have produced a child with Daena. If not, then it would have been mandatory that at least one - but better all three - of Baelor's sisters would marry. To ensure that the boat isn't rocked by competing claims one would imagine that one of the sisters would have been married to a son or grandson or Alyn and Baela (if available), so that a son of Daena/Rhaena/Elaena would have the blood of the dragon on both sides and would then face little to no resistance upon his ascension.

If Baelor could not name a nephew his heir then the throne would likely have to go to one of the sisters since all the other relations were pretty distant relations. I guess Alyn Velaryon and Baela (if still alive) could try to seize the throne for themselves, or a forceful son of theirs could try to pull that off.

The Baratheons of that era don't have strong ties to House Targaryen that we know of, so they would be out of the game. Although some other great houses could push claims of their own if they ended up marrying one of the six daughters of Rhaena Targaryen and Garmund Hightower.

[The Bard of Banefort]

Daena, although I get the impression that house Targaryen wouldn’t have survived Aegon/Daeron/Baelor without Viserys.

[WolfgangII]

If we look at this, ignoring the changes that the Realm and the Targaryen relatives will suffer because Baelor's lack of heirs (as Lord Varys just eloquently put), the line of sucession after Baelor is quite murky. Without Viserys (and his lot) the only living Targaryens in 171 AC (when Baelor died) were women: her sisters Daena, Rhaena, and Elaena, and her aunt Baela.

If we consider the precedents of Rhaenys and Rhaenyra and the reluctance of the Realm and Lords to have a Queen, we can presume either of them claim to the Iron Throne is anything but a sure thing. If the Lords are set in having a male successor, the next closest male kin of Baelor are: his third cousins once removed, children of Saera (whom I don't think they´ll be seriously consider because they're foreigners), his bastard nephew Jon Waters (whom, even though he can be legitimized, he's either a baby or hasn't born yet in 171), and his cousin Unnamed Velaryon (son of Baela Targaryen and Alyn Velaryon). If no women are to be elected, I think he's the heir, probably with a change of surname. Either way, to preserve the Targaryen line, the line of succession will have to pass through a Targaryen mother (and it'll probably be Alyn's son).

[Ran]

8 minutes ago, WolfgangII said:

Either way, to preserve the Targaryen line, the line of succession will have to pass through a Targaryen mother (and it'll probably be Alyn's son).

Yes, taking the presented scenario at face value, I think this is in fact the right answer. Alyn and Baela's son would be seen as the appropriate heir. (I rather suspect Alyn would name his son Addam, but only time will tell.)

[Lord Varys]

33 minutes ago, Ran said:

Yes, taking the presented scenario at face value, I think this is in fact the right answer. Alyn and Baela's son would be seen as the appropriate heir. (I rather suspect Alyn would name his son Addam, but only time will tell.)

Could be ... but we should keep in mind that Alyn Velaryon was only a legitimized bastard and common on his mother's side. Would Westeros be ready for a king whose grandmother was a trader?

Alyn's fame could counter that to a point ... but if Corlys couldn't make Laenor king, Oakenfist's fame may not have been enough for his son.

But I think if Viserys' branch was completely missing we would have a scenario where Baelor would have multiple nephews and nieces around the time of his death, meaning he could have named a nephew his Heir Apparent at that time.

For a presumptive heir I imagine one of the sisters would have been chosen in absence of a nephew - like it effectively was prior to Viserys' return from Lys. Baela and Rhaena were the only Targaryens left, so one of them would have succeeded Aegon III if he had died untimely.

If Baelor had felt inclined to favor a son of Baela and Alyn then that son would have also been married to one of his sisters to keep the family better together.

But at this point we actually have no clue whether Baela and Alyn actually do continue the male branch of House Velaryon. It is very likely, but not confirmed as of yet. With their eldest child being a Laena, I'd not be surprised if we got another Laenor, although I'd agree that there should also be an Addam, possibly the eldest son. If there are more girls, then we could also get a Marilda.

[Thomaerys Velaryon]

39 minutes ago, Ran said:

(I rather suspect Alyn would name his son Addam, but only time will tell.)

Didn't Alyn wanted to name his first son Corlys ? Though I like Alyn having a second or third son named Addam (if Alyn and Baela had that many children).
 

Quote

The Lord of the Tides made a gift of his elephant to King Aegon III as he took his leave of King’s Landing. Returning to Hull to gather his fleet and take on provisions for the long journey, he said his farewells to his wife, the Lady Baela, who sent him on his way with a kiss, and the news that she was with child. “Name him Corlys, after my grandsire,” Lord Alyn told her. “One day he may sit the Iron Throne.” Baela laughed at that. “I will name her Laena, after my mother. One day she may ride a dragon.”

-Fire & Blood, Under the Regents - War and Peace and Cattle Shows

[Ran]

Just now, Thomaerys Velaryon said:

Didn't Alyn wanted to name his first son Corlys ? Though I like Alyn having a second or third son named Addam (if Alyn and Baela had that many children).
 

Good recollection there. Yes, and really in dynastic terms it makes sense to solidify the fact that he was Corlys's heir by naming his own heir after him. An Addam would wait.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Good recollection there. Yes, and really in dynastic terms it makes sense to solidify the fact that he was Corlys's heir by naming his own heir after him. An Addam would wait.

Yeah, I forgot that Alyn already had suggested a name for a son.

I guess if George wants to give them multiple children we can expect Baela to give Alyn a child after every great voyage ... so they could have six in the end, depending when exactly Baela dies in childbirth...

[WolfgangII]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But I think if Viserys' branch was completely missing we would have a scenario where Baelor would have multiple nephews and nieces around the time of his death, meaning he could have named a nephew his Heir Apparent at that time.

Absolutely, if Viserys' branch is missing, I'm sure Baelor's sisters wouldn't have been locked away for so many years and they would be married and with issue. What I find interesting, is how important Viserys II is for the continuation of the Targaryen tree. If he wouldn't been found by Alyn Velaryon, the latter could be the father of the king of Westeros.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But at this point we actually have no clue whether Baela and Alyn actually do continue the male branch of House Velaryon. It is very likely, but not confirmed as of yet. With their eldest child being a Laena, I'd not be surprised if we got another Laenor, although I'd agree that there should also be an Addam, possibly the eldest son. If there are more girls, then we could also get a Marilda.

According to A Wiki of Ice and Fire, Baela and Alyn did have, at least, a son who continued House Velaryon.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, WolfgangII said:

Absolutely, if Viserys' branch is missing, I'm sure Baelor's sisters wouldn't have been locked away for so many years and they would be married and with issue. What I find interesting, is how important Viserys II is for the continuation of the Targaryen tree. If he wouldn't been found by Alyn

Well, originally Viserys II was the fourth son of Aegon III (and we have no idea what happened to the third), so he wasn't always that important (the third son could have had issue that was passed over), but in the final/corrected setting he is pretty crucial.

2 minutes ago, WolfgangII said:

According to A Wiki of Ice and Fire, Baela and Alyn did have, at least, a son who continued House Velaryon.

That seems to be speculation/hope on part of the wiki writers. The TWoIaF family tree granted Baela and Alyn 'issue', but didn't confirm they actually continued House Velaryon (FaB didn't make it more concrete, only specifying that the second Laena was born at the end of the book). It is pretty likely that they did that, but don't forget how many cousins there were. If Alyn died without legitimate descendants, there would have been more than enough Velaryons to continue the house. And it could actually reflect the decline of the house pretty well if Monford and Monterys Velaryon are not directly descended from Alyn Oakenfist, Laena and Laenor Velaryon, or the famous Sea Snake ... but merely from a distant cousin of those famous people. That could perhaps even work better if Alyn's branch of the family only died out with grandsons or great-grandsons (say, the Great Spring Sickness carried all of them away).

I'm pretty positive that the second Laena Velaryon will marry and have children, since it seems she might be the Targaryen ancestor of Aelinor Penrose ... but this doesn't mean that Driftmark would have gone to her or any of her descendants, especially not in light of Alyn's long life and his (apparent) death at sea.

[WolfgangII]

49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That seems to be speculation/hope on part of the wiki writers. The TWoIaF family tree granted Baela and Alyn 'issue', but didn't confirm they actually continued House Velaryon (FaB didn't make it more concrete, only specifying that the second Laena was born at the end of the book).

Great point, I was using the wiki to check the Targaryen family tree. It seems pausible that, at some point, the head of House Valeryon came from a "lesser" branch. As you said, it could explain their decline in importance regarding Westerosi politics.

It's actually hard to believe that all the Targaryen kings were sons (or grandsons through his father, like Viserys I) of the previous kings. The only exception are Aegon III and Viserys II (grandsons of Viserys I through their mother, who you could argue was the Queen for a while). 

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, WolfgangII said:

Great point, I was using the wiki to check the Targaryen family tree. It seems pausible that, at some point, the head of House Valeryon came from a "lesser" branch. As you said, it could explain their decline in importance regarding Westerosi politics.

It is just an idea. I'm reasonably confident that Alyn and Baela at least will have a number of children. Although it would not surprise me if Alyn's heir died in Dorne during Daeron's Conquest. It is kind of noteworthy that ancient Alyn is apparently still a prominent figure at court when Elaena is freed from her cage, possibly indicating that he didn't have a son who could take over for him as Master of Ships. Although he could have a number of grandsons at that time.

14 hours ago, WolfgangII said:

It's actually hard to believe that all the Targaryen kings were sons (or grandsons through his father, like Viserys I) of the previous kings. The only exception are Aegon III and Viserys II (grandsons of Viserys I through their mother, who you could argue was the Queen for a while). 

Well, the Targaryens in Westeros aren't that old a dynasty, but it is pretty convenient that it went as smoothly. And the Dragonstonians seem to be pretty straightforward, too.

I'd have liked it if we had seen more cadet branches which didn't survive the Dance and perhaps other civil wars (there could also be some fool Targaryen cousin ending up siding with Daemon Blackfyre), but it might have also been interesting to see the throne pass to a distant cousin once in a while.

[The Merling King]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd have liked it if we had seen more cadet branches which didn't survive the Dance and perhaps other civil wars (there could also be some fool Targaryen cousin ending up siding with Daemon Blackfyre), but it might have also been interesting to see the throne pass to a distant cousin once in a while.

Well it would not be unrealistic if Jaehaerys had more than 4 grandchildren from his 13 children and one of them strarted a cadet branch. Any ideas for these hypothetical pre-dance Targaryen cadets branches?

[The Merling King]

On 7/22/2022 at 4:20 PM, WolfgangII said:

Either way, to preserve the Targaryen line, the line of succession will have to pass through a Targaryen mother (and it'll probably be Alyn's son).

I agree, it’s most likely the son of Alyn and Baela unless Baelor had a nephew, assuming his sisters were released and allowed to marry and it would probably have to be someone more prestigious then there OTL husbands like a Baratheon.

[Lord Varys]

On 7/23/2022 at 11:13 PM, The Merling King said:

Well it would not be unrealistic if Jaehaerys had more than 4 grandchildren from his 13 children and one of them strarted a cadet branch. Any ideas for these hypothetical pre-dance Targaryen cadets branches?

Well, I certainly expected more than four grandchildren from thirteen children, too, as did George in his first manuscript version. The literal lack of Targaryens during the reign of Viserys I which could have easily been a huge court with a king surrounded by brothers, sisters, uncles, aunts, first and second and third cousins ... just includes two Targaryen men, a young girl, with one female cadet branch living on Driftmark. That is kind of sad.

I assumed that the Conqueror, having two wives, would have had more than two children. I also assumed that Jaehaerys and Alysanne may have had younger brothers. It was pretty good that they had elder siblings, but making Alysanne the youngest who survived was kind of a letdown. Any such children could have established lasting male and female cadet branches. A reasonably approach could have been to see how the incestuous marriage policies reduced the number of such cadet branches over time.

Then Maegor could have had a posthumous child which was passed over. A son could have ended taking the black, making amends for the deeds of his monstrous father and becoming the first Targaryen Lord Commander of the Night's Watch (or perhaps he could have joined the Faith to eventually become High Septon). A daughter could have ended up as the wife of Boremund Baratheon.

In addition there could have been royal bastards, men and women with interesting careers at court. We kind of see a semblance of how this could have gone with Aegon III's companion Gaemon Palehair. It also wouldn't have hurt if later on during the Sowing one or two of the bastard dragonriders had been actually recognized Targaryen bastards - say, a natural children of Daemon, Viserys I, Baelon, Aemon, or Vaegon.

My personal pet idea for the Dance was that there could have been an established lesser cadet branch of House Targaryen, going back to a younger son of the Conqueror or perhaps even to a male cousin from before the Conquest, whose members had a kind of hereditary position as court officials - say, as the royal stewards, similarly to the office the Tyrells held under the Gardeners - who played a crucial role in the politicking during the Dance, playing one side against the other, with the secret desire/hope to claim the throne for themselves should Rhaenyra and Aegon II and their allies take each other out. Such a branch could have been dragonless since the days of King Jaehaerys, loathing the fact that they had been pressed into or reduced to the role of servants, something that could have also excluded their daughters from the Targaryen marriage game (possibly because an earlier heir of that line married beneath his station, i.e. a minor noble or even a commoner).

I also had expected that the dragonriders would have had a much more active role in the government of the Realm, with the Small Council as we know it a later creation while the kings of the dragon age basically ruled being surrounded, advised, and controlled by the dragonriders. This should have been especially prominent during Viserys' reign since then there would have been the most dragonriders, meaning it should have been very difficult to control them.

[WolfgangII]

Really interesting scenario. I would like to see how a Targaryen cadet branch would have faired in the Dance. We kind of have this scenario with Orys Baratheon and the Blackfyres, but still seems like the Targaryen could be one huge family.

On 7/23/2022 at 4:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

I also had expected that the dragonriders would have had a much more active role in government of the Realm, with the Small Council as we know it a later creation while the kings of the dragon age basically ruled being surrounded, advised, and controlled by the dragonriders of the Realm. This should have been especially prominent during Viserys' reign since then there would have been the most dragonriders, meaning it should have been very difficult to control them.

That's another interesting point, its a little surprising that only (if I remember correctly) one dragonrider (Daemon) decided to have his/her own kingdom. Given the advantage of a dragon, it seems pausibly that one disgrunted Targaryen could think of building their own kingdom away from the Iron Throne. If I remember correctly, Hugh the Hammer aimed for the Iron Throne.