Who would become king after Baelor the Blessed if prince Viserys died during the Dance?

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, WolfgangII said:

Really interesting scenario. I would like to see how a Targaryen cadet branch would have faired in the Dance. We kind of have this scenario with Orys Baratheon and the Blackfyres, but still seems like the Targaryen could be one huge family.

Well, even as 'a huge family' they would have been smaller than many others, since sisters would marry brothers, and in the absence of either we would see first cousins marrying each other or avuncular marriages between aunts-nephews and uncles-nieces close enough in age.

If we imagines that Alysanne's thirteen children had been, say, seven sons and six daughters and they all had lived and married, we might still have gotten only seven branches due to incestuous marriages.

There was actually no need to kill most of them prematurely, since there could have been some cousin marriages among the grandchildren (like with Viserys-Aemma) and great-grandchildren.

4 hours ago, WolfgangII said:

That's another interesting point, its a little surprising that only (if I remember correctly) one dragonrider (Daemon) decided to have his/her own kingdom. Given the advantage of a dragon, it seems pausibly that one disgrunted Targaryen could think of building their own kingdom away from the Iron Throne. If I remember correctly, Hugh the Hammer aimed for the Iron Throne.

Yes, that certainly could also have been an option, and we kind of get semblances of that with Queen Rhaena. She is de iure a subject of Jaehaerys I, but de facto she does what she wants.

My idea was more that as the dragons and dragonriders multiplied it would have been very hard for a king to control them if they had wanted to test or challenge his authority. It is already kind of far-fetched to assume that a dragonless Viserys I could have kept the dragonrider Daemon in line ... much less the Velaryons who in the later 100s and 110s controlled three dragons between them, one of which was mighty Vhagar.

That Viserys I could control his children and grandchildren does make sense - he would have had a natural authority over them as father, grandfather, and king - but it would have been much more difficult with siblings and cousins.

In that sense I think a more realistic scenario would have been that, as the dragons multiplied and the number of dragonriders increased, the power of the king would have eroded (which should have been even in Aegon's days more a joint rule of him and his sister-wives) as the power of House Targaryen as collective increased. The later Jaehaerys I and especially Viserys I should have more been first among equals in House Targaryen, ruling the other dragonriders with moderation and persuasion rather than steel.

One would imagine regular meetings of the dragonriding Targaryens were they discussed everything that concerned them - the politics of the Realm as well as their own personal needs and desires, and like, say, Aegon V later has to make many concessions to his lords, a Targaryen king of that era should have been forced to keep the dragonriders in the family sweet and happy if he wanted to count on the support of their dragons in a crisis.

Not to mention that in a realistic scenario the fact that Viserys' children all were dragonriders would have inevitably moved the real power to them and away from the king's person as the king grew ever sicker later in life. Even if he had been a dragonrider - as I think he should have been - as soon as he lost the physical ability to mount and fly his dragon (as Alysanne did years before her death) his authority as a leader should have declined.

That could also have helped with the vexing 'How could the guy not foresee/prevent the Dance?' question. After all, if the king actually had lost the power/authority to command his children, then he would have been powerless to stop the succession war even if he had clearly foreseen it.

[BlackLightning]

It all depends on when Viserys died.

If he died before having children, then things get ridiculously complicated.

If Viserys dies simply before Baelor did (which is very likely as Viserys only reigned for two years after Baelor...he was old and in failing health), then it would have come down to either Daena or Aegon. And it almost surely would've gone to Aegon. But would he have married Daena instead of Naerys?

Going the Alyn/Baela route was way too convoluted. 

 

[WolfgangII]

40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There was actually no need to kill most of them prematurely, since there could have been some cousin marriages among the grandchildren (like with Viserys-Aemma) and great-grandchildren.

Great point. The incestuos Targaryen can only expand their family tree a bit. It also helps explain why so many stillborns. I understand it was common on the Medieval times the story is set, but I've been always curious of the need of GRRM to write so many pregnancies and stillborns (and named them) just for them to not have a role in the plot (I know it helps to illustrate how women were treated as mere birthing machines and that, in some cases, the stillborns did move the plot forward. But still, I found it fascinating. It makes me think on why the Targaryen announced either child since birth, giving the possibilities of not living many years. (I remember a costume that a Chinese person told me: He said that when a baby was born in the family, they didn't count it as a member up until he or she turned 2 years old. On the day of his/her second birthday, the will give it a name and gift him/her a token guardian. Sorry for the disgression).

 

51 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

One would imagine regular meetings of the dragonriding Targaryens were they discussed everything that concerned them - the politics of the Realm as well as their own personal needs and desires, and like, say, Aegon V later has to make many concessions to his lords, a Targaryen king of that era should have been forced to keep the dragonriders in the family sweet and happy if he wanted to count on the support of their dragons in a crisis.

Aw man, how do you please a disgrunted relative, raised in the court with what is essentially a weapon of mass destruction at its command. Maybe it was a blessing, at least for the Realm, that the dragons died off. They are really a gamechanger. 

[WolfgangII]

43 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Going the Alyn/Baela route was way too convoluted. 

I'm sure that's why Alyn paid the king's ransom for Viserys. Thinking about who of ther children would be king or queen was too much for him.

(I started typing this as a tongue-in-cheek, but could that be the real reason Alyn paid he hefty price to the Rogares? He remember the last time a convulted line of succesion produced a conflict between siblings. Maybe he thought that his family would be tore apart (again) if Aegon III died without issue. In 134 AC, when he brought Viserys, Aegon didn't have any children).

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

It all depends on when Viserys died.

If he died before having children, then things get ridiculously complicated.

If Viserys dies simply before Baelor did (which is very likely as Viserys only reigned for two years after Baelor...he was old and in failing health), then it would have come down to either Daena or Aegon. And it almost surely would've gone to Aegon. But would he have married Daena instead of Naerys?

Aegon and Naerys married in 153 AC, so no chance that Aegon would ever marry Daena.

If Viserys dies during the reign of Baelor there would be a considerable succession conundrum. Aegon was clearly not suited to rule, and Baelor didn't get along with his cousin, apparently, effectively exiling him to Braavos for a time.

Seeing as pious and zealous a king as Baelor naming an heir as lecherous and corrupt as Aegon is very hard to see. If Aegon had been Baelor's son it would have been very hard to pass him over ... but he was merely his first cousin, so there could have been ways around that.

That said, though, the alternative would have then been one of his sisters. I kind of could see Baelor settling on Rhaena if he had to choose an heir from among his sisters, since she was apparently as pious as he was, meaning she might continue his policies. Daena is a no-go if she has her bastard in our scenario.

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

Going the Alyn/Baela route was way too convoluted.

If there is a male Velaryon down that route it wouldn't be that convoluted. Especially if he could be married to one of the sisters. But as I said above - Alyn's own mother was just a commoner, and we do know that later Jenny of Oldstones costs Duncan the Iron Throne. A son of Alyn and Baela may have faced similar difficulties, although I guess if he was married to one of Aegon III's daughters they may have been able to overcome them. Mostly because there wouldn't have been any viable alternative ... unless one of the Targaryen-Hightower girls had made a very prestigious match and her great lord husband had the necessary resources and support launch a campaign to put her or their son on the throne. I'm sure a Lannister or Tyrell could have tried to do that.

In fact, I've long argued that since Daeron I was apparently not betrothed to Daena, chances are pretty good that he may have been betrothed to a younger daughter of Baela and Alyn because both they and Daenaera Velaryon did not want that branch of the family to not be considered in the dynastic marriages. Baela and Alyn successfully gave Aegon III a Velaryon queen, so that should have paid off for them in the marriage game as well.

But it is still kind of strange that Daeron I married Baelor and Daena to each other while he had not yet married himself. I'd really like to see George changing that in FaB II, having Daeron I marry in the last year of his reign or so, with a posthumous daughter being born half a year or more after his death, at a time when Baelor is long crowned and anointed. Such a girl could be married off to a younger son of House Baratheon who would eventually inherit Storm's End, to help make more sense of Renly's ACoK talk about 'second sons and elder daughters' explaining the strength of the Baratheon claim to the Iron Throne.

And thinking about that ... the most obvious and natural bride for Alyn and Baela's heir would be one of Rhaena's daughters by Garmund Hightower. They had six daughters, so one of them could certainly have been married to Baela's son in absence of a royal princess for a bride (if we assume that Baela's second pregnancy leads to the birth of a son, Aegon III's daughters would all be too young for him and Viserys clearly reserved his only daughter for one of his sons.

[BlackLightning]

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But it is still kind of strange that Daeron I married Baelor and Daena to each other while he had not yet married himself. I'd really like to see George changing that in FaB II, having Daeron I marry in the last year of his reign or so, with a posthumous daughter being born half a year or more after his death, at a time when Baelor is long crowned and anointed.

Given Daeron I's preoccupation with Dorne, I think Daeron might have been gunning for a Dornish marriage so as to further consolidate his conquest.

It didn't work, needless to say.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

Given Daeron I's preoccupation with Dorne, I think Daeron might have been gunning for a Dornish marriage so as to further consolidate his conquest.

It didn't work, needless to say.

He would have been able to secure such a marriage at the end of the original fighting. He collected lots of hostages and returned back home, celebrated Baelor's wedding and was organizing Rhaena's marriage to the Sealord of Braavos when rebellions brought him back to Dorne and death.

If he was aiming at a Martell match he could have already had that after his original victory.

[BlackLightning]

On 7/26/2022 at 9:17 PM, Lord Varys said:

Aegon and Naerys married in 153 AC, so no chance that Aegon would ever marry Daena.

Ahh okay

Why did Viserys force Aegon and Naerys to marry each other? It was completely unnecessary as Aegon had five other unwed children, Baela and Rhaena had children of their own and there were (presumably) plenty of other Baratheons, Velaryons and Arryns to choose from. Or, he could've pulled a page out of his own book by wedding them to a child of a different Westerosi high lord or another Valyrian-descendant Essosi nobleman.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

Ahh okay

Why did Viserys force Aegon and Naerys to marry each other?

That is an interesting question. One we will likely get answer to in the next volume of FaB. The general reason would have been to continue the dynasty, especially Viserys' own branch of the family. As you say, Aegon III already had five children at that time, although they were still young. The succession was definitely secured already.

Why Viserys insisted that Naerys must marry Aegon needs a proper explanation - after all, Daeron married his younger brother Baelor to his eldest sister, he didn't marry Daena himself (although it might be that Aegon III or Daenaera had already arranged that match) and that happened in the same generation.

I guess it might make sense if Aemon's decision to join the KG was actually independent of the Naerys marriage. If the guy never intended to marry and merely wanted to save Naerys from a marriage to Aegon (or any marriage, considering her piety and frail health) then it would make sense why their father never considered to marry Aemon to Naerys.

It is also rather obvious that Aemon could have never joined the KG without Aegon III and Viserys' permission. His uncle was the king and his father (most likely) the Hand at that time.

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

It was completely unnecessary as Aegon had five other unwed children, Baela and Rhaena had children of their own and there were (presumably) plenty of other Baratheons, Velaryons and Arryns to choose from. Or, he could've pulled a page out of his own book by wedding them to a child of a different Westerosi high lord or another Valyrian-descendant Essosi nobleman.

I guess dynastically Aegon III and Viserys both wanted to continue the male line of the family. Baela's and Rhaena's children were emergency heirs, but to keep the dynasty stable the ideal scenario would be that the two guess continued the royal line.

Although in context of Aegon-Naerys marrying at a pretty young age (Naerys only turned fifteen in 153 AC) it is quite striking that no plans were apparently made for Daeron I's marriage. Aegon III didn't die suddenly, apparently suffering from consumption, which would indicate a decline of health over months and years ... which means that Aegon and Viserys could and should have made plans for a smooth succession (there being no regency certainly indicates such a plan), including a royal wedding to continue the dynasty.

But I'm still pretty confident that Daeron I was betrothed to a Velaryon girl. We do not only have a Velaryon queen with Daenaera but also Alyn Velaryon as a fixture at court ... who happens to be married to the old king's half-sister and the new king's aunt. If a Velaryon girl is available - a younger daughter of Alyn and Baela, say - then she would have been the future queen of Daeron I. And if such a girl was, say, 2-3 years younger than Daeron I then it makes sense that the marriage might have been postponed.

[StarksInTheNorth]

Family tree wise, the living Targaryen-descendants would be, in order of proximity to the king:

• Daena
• Rhaena
• Elaena
• Baela Targaryen
• Any son(s) Velaryon
• Laena Velaryon and any sister(s)
• Rhaena Targaryen
• Any son(s) Hightower
• Any daughter(s) Hightower
• Alyn Velaryon (legitimized son of Laenor, questionable)

Presumably a Great Council would be called to solve the question of succession. If Daena hasn’t found a lover like she originally found Aegon IV, she might be married to a male cousin to unite claims and prevent a war. The best option would be a son Velaryon, as he has two claims (Alyn’s murky and Baela’s claim).

 

BUT the earliest Velaryon son would be born in 136 and Daena wasn’t born until 145, so there’s also a good chance he was already married. 

[BlackLightning]

On 7/26/2022 at 9:17 PM, Lord Varys said:

If there is a male Velaryon down that route it wouldn't be that convoluted. Especially if he could be married to one of the sisters.

True.

But then we'd be back to square one with a Velaryon male (a bastard born of a commoner no less) being wed to a Targaryen female who would be heir to the Iron Throne.

It'd be a claim that would get a lot of resistance.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

True.

But then we'd be back to square one with a Velaryon male (a bastard born of a commoner no less) being wed to a Targaryen female who would be heir to the Iron Throne.

It'd be a claim that would get a lot of resistance.

Sure, Alyn's son all by himself would likely face a challenge. But it could be smoothened if he was married to one of Aegon III's daughters. Without such a precaution folks resisting the rise of a 'trader king with bastard roots' might put forth the female claim of the daughters against Alyn's son. And if they were married to great lords with ambitions of their own the Velaryons could be pushed aside in a succession war.

I'm thinking about Duncan Targaryen losing his claim due to his marriage to Jenny - who isn't even a confirmed commoner but may have been a scion of ancient First Men nobility. Alyn's son is the confirmed son of a legitimized bastard with confirmed commoner roots on his mother's side, so that certainly could be a problem for his claim.

[BlackLightning]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I guess dynastically Aegon III and Viserys both wanted to continue the male line of the family. Baela's and Rhaena's children were emergency heirs, but to keep the dynasty stable the ideal scenario would be that the two guess continued the royal line.

Although in context of Aegon-Naerys marrying at a pretty young age (Naerys only turned fifteen in 153 AC) it is quite striking that no plans were apparently made for Daeron I's marriage. Aegon III didn't die suddenly, apparently suffering from consumption, which would indicate a decline of health over months and years ... which means that Aegon and Viserys could and should have made plans for a smooth succession (there being no regency certainly indicates such a plan), including a royal wedding to continue the dynasty.

But I'm still pretty confident that Daeron I was betrothed to a Velaryon girl. We do not only have a Velaryon queen with Daenaera but also Alyn Velaryon as a fixture at court ... who happens to be married to the old king's half-sister and the new king's aunt. If a Velaryon girl is available - a younger daughter of Alyn and Baela, say - then she would have been the future queen of Daeron I. And if such a girl was, say, 2-3 years younger than Daeron I then it makes sense that the marriage might have been postponed.

Well then GRRM has a lot of explaining to do in Fire and Blood, Vol. 2 because it's just not cutting it for me.

If Aegon III and Viserys II wanted to continue the male line of the family that badly, then the Dragonknight should have never become a Kingsguard and the Young Dragon should have been betrothed before the age of 12.

And marrying Prince Aegon to Princess Naerys was, again, unnecessary especially seeing that they didn't even like each other as regular siblings. Prince Aegon could've had any distinguished noblewoman and still sire Targaryen children.

Marry Naerys to either Baelor (of similar temperament and outlook) or Daeron, marry Daena to one of Alyn's son and marry Aegon to a noblewoman of a worthy house that was loyal to Rhaenyra during the Dance.

 

[Lord Varys]

14 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

If Aegon III and Viserys II wanted to continue the male line of the family that badly, then the Dragonknight should have never become a Kingsguard and the Young Dragon should have been betrothed before the age of 12.

At that time they had Aegon's children and Viserys and his children as heirs. Aemon was at the far end of the line of succession, so him joining the KG wouldn't have been that big of a problem. Keep in mind that at that time Aegon and Daenera may have still wanted to have more children. And if Aegon III wasn't sick yet in 153 AC then he could have ruled for decades still, passing the throne to his grandchildren or great-grandchildren.

14 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

And marrying Prince Aegon to Princess Naerys was, again, unnecessary especially seeing that they didn't even like each other as regular siblings. Prince Aegon could've had any distinguished noblewoman and still sire Targaryen children.

True enough. There I think Viserys must also have a desire for a incestuous union in his family, or else this match wouldn't have been arranged. In fact, I imagine it was the deciding factor that Naerys was forced into a marriage.

14 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Marry Naerys to either Baelor (of similar temperament and outlook) or Daeron, marry Daena to one of Alyn's son and marry Aegon to a noblewoman of a worthy house that was loyal to Rhaenyra during the Dance.

There is too big of an age gap betwen Naerys and Baelor. She was five years older than Daeron I and six years older than Baelor.

And while it is imaginable that Alyn and Baelor have younger children who could be paired with Aegon III's children we don't know if that happened. But we can reasonably assume that some Rhaena-Garmund's daughters could have been married to either Daeron or Baelor. They are not even married yet in 136 AC, but they could marry in the early 140s, around the time Daenaera starts to have children, too. While I favor a betrothal between Daeron and one of the hypothetical Velaryon girls, he could also be betrothed to the eldest or second eldest daughter of Rhaena and Garmund.

The second Laena Velaryon could have been married to Aegon or Aemon ... but not to any of Aegon III's sons. She is way too old for that. But I think she is going to end up marrying into House Penrose.

[Red_star99]

On 7/23/2022 at 2:56 AM, Lord Varys said:

That seems to be speculation/hope on part of the wiki writers. The TWoIaF family tree granted Baela and Alyn 'issue', but didn't confirm they actually continued House Velaryon (FaB didn't make it more concrete, only specifying that the second Laena was born at the end of the book). It is pretty likely that they did that, but don't forget how many cousins there were. If Alyn died without legitimate descendants, there would have been more than enough Velaryons to continue the house. And it could actually reflect the decline of the house pretty well if Monford and Monterys Velaryon are not directly descended from Alyn Oakenfist, Laena and Laenor Velaryon, or the famous Sea Snake ... but merely from a distant cousin of those famous people. That could perhaps even work better if Alyn's branch of the family only died out with grandsons or great-grandsons (say, the Great Spring Sickness carried all of them away).

I doubt that because of the many parallels aurune waters have with daemon targeryan