UK Politics: The Tory leadership (disg)race to the bottom and beyond - not worth a Penny.

[Werthead]

It's interesting that so many Sunak supporters are still kicking Truss even as the campaign seems a done deal.

One possibility is that they think the current confluence of crises is unique, and that a lot of people, particularly Tory party members, have only woken up to how bad the situation is and will continue to get in the last few days. That could cause a late-stage upset.

The alternative is that they believe Truss will catastrophically lose the election in 2024, paving the way for Sunak to become leader that point and plan a comeback in 2029.

[Spockydog]

There are whispers that Truss might consider a snap election, in order to capitalize on the expected Tory bounce.

That's her only realistic chance of winning an election. There's no way she wins after two catastrophic years of Downing Street fuck ups and u-turns.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her try and start a war with someone. The Bahamas maybe. They've been getting a bit uppity lately, wanting a head of state who isn't The Queen.

[The Anti-Targ]

17 minutes ago, Werthead said:

It's interesting that so many Sunak supporters are still kicking Truss even as the campaign seems a done deal.

One possibility is that they think the current confluence of crises is unique, and that a lot of people, particularly Tory party members, have only woken up to how bad the situation is and will continue to get in the last few days. That could cause a late-stage upset.

The alternative is that they believe Truss will catastrophically lose the election in 2024, paving the way for Sunak to become leader that point and plan a comeback in 2029.

It probably doesn't stretch credulity to think that Truss may well tank within a matter of months and a new new PM will be needed, Boris might well re-emerge as a contender, so Sunak needs to shore up support for that possibility by having as close a contest with Truss as can be managed. If the towel is thrown in now it will be an absolute thrashing rather than a normal thrashing. The alternative would be to pre-empt a hugely embarrassing vote by pulling out "for the sake of party unity, even though we remained competitive" and give Truss even more time to prove her uselessness before the election.

[Spockydog]

15 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It probably doesn't stretch credulity to think that Truss may well tank within a matter of months and a new new PM will be needed, Boris might well re-emerge as a contender,

It is not certain he survives the Privileges Committee process, which could ultimately see him recalled to his constituents and forced into a by election.

That's unlikely though. I can't see enough Tories having the stomach to bring him to account. Although, if Truss actively tries to block the committee process in any way, it could spark all kinds of trouble for her. 

[The Anti-Targ]

24 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

It is not certain he survives the Privileges Committee process, which could ultimately see him recalled to his constituents and forced into a by election.

That's unlikely though. I can't see enough Tories having the stomach to bring him to account. Although, if Truss actively tries to block the committee process in any way, it could spark all kinds of trouble for her. 

Is it better for Truss to throw him under the bus and end his political career completely, or to let him stick around in parliament and possibly try to undermine her from within? Electorally it might be better for her to help the privileges committee to find him guilty, than to block it, it might not go over so well in the party, but if it would help her to win an election, the party would soon forgive and forget.

The other reason to call a snap election is if Truss is not at batshit crazy as she needs to seem to keep the ERG onside. She campaigns on seeking a mandate more in line with the centre of the party and if she wins she gets to purge the ERG from the front bench since they are not aligned with the new mandate. If that's possible?

[Which Tyler]

5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Is it better for Truss to throw him under the bus and end his political career completely, or to let him stick around in parliament and possibly try to undermine her from within? Electorally it might be better for her to help the privileges committee to find him guilty, than to block it, it might not go over so well in the party, but if it would help her to win an election, the party would soon forgive and forget.

No-one cares what's best for Truss - least of all, Truss.

It's what's best for JRM, Redwood, Francois and Farage that matters.

 

 

5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The other reason to call a snap election is if Truss is not at batshit crazy as she needs to seem to keep the ERG onside. She campaigns on seeking a mandate more in line with the centre of the party and if she wins she gets to purge the ERG from the front bench since they are not aligned with the new mandate. If that's possible?

[Spockydog]

 

[A wilding]

9 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Is it better for Truss to throw him under the bus and end his political career completely, or to let him stick around in parliament and possibly try to undermine her from within? Electorally it might be better for her to help the privileges committee to find him guilty, than to block it, it might not go over so well in the party, but if it would help her to win an election, the party would soon forgive and forget.

It would be easy to let the privileges committee do its stuff, and hope that it dishes Johnson. She can still condemn their actions to keep the Johnson supporters onside. Trying to block them would be a Johnsonian like breach of the UK's unwritten constitution. It would burn her political capital amongst the wider electorate, by her being seen to both be endorsing Johnson's behaviour and demonstrating his contempt for rules.

On the other hand elements in the Tory party might well block the privileges committee anyway. And even if they don't, it is still a long road to a recall petition and a by election kicking Johnson out of parliament. Even then, he would doubtless once more once more become a right wing media personality wielding a lot of influence. He might even stand for parliament again at the next election if he can find a sufficiently safe seat.

[Spockydog]

1 hour ago, A wilding said:

On the other hand elements in the Tory party might well block the privileges committee anyway. 

The committee has a Labour chair. So in order to block it, the Tories will have to change the rules. And I'm pretty sure they haven't forgotten how that went down last time when they tried save Owen Paterson.

 

 

[mormont]

Truss is being a bit too much credit for thinking in this thread, in my opinion.

She doesn't think or plan or consider. She's an empty suit. Like her predecessor, she wants to be PM purely so she can be PM. It's an end in itself. In answer to what she'll do, on any question, the response is that she'll do whatever keeps her in office for another five minutes. 

This is what we're down to: the dregs of the party system. It's depressing.

[Spockydog]

Imagine being so miserable and bigoted and sour that you feel the need to write to the police to complain about this:

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

20 minutes ago, mormont said:

This is what we're down to: the dregs of the party system. It's depressing.

Blame the people. They're getting the government they deserve. 

[Spockydog]

14 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Blame the people. They're getting the government they deserve. 

It's true. They've been voting these cunts in over and over and over again. And now people like my mum are wondering why the country is literally going to shit.

She was properly going off on one yesterday because my sister and niece couldn't go holiday swimming in the Norfolk sea because it is currently full of human shit.

She just wasn't having the fact that this is a direct result of the Brexit she voted for. She actually tried to blame the Blair government for the sewage, refusing to accept that this would not be happening if we were still in the EU and subject to all those pesky laws designed to protect people from rogue governments and corporations.

[Which Tyler]

21 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

It's true. They've been voting these cunts in over and over and over again. And now people like my mum are wondering why the country is literally going to shit.

She was properly going off on one yesterday because my sister and niece couldn't go holiday swimming in the Norfolk sea because it is currently full of human shit.

She just wasn't having the fact that this is a direct result of the Brexit she voted for. She actually tried to blame the Blair government for the sewage, refusing to accept that this would not be happening if we were still in the EU and subject to all those pesky laws designed to protect people from rogue governments and corporations.

Does she realise that Blair hasn't had a say in anything for 15 years - at which point, our beaches were pretty clean?

 

Could she name the Blairite policy that allowed water companies to dump raw sewage into our rivers and seafronts?

[Heartofice]

25 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

It's true. They've been voting these cunts in over and over and over again. And now people like my mum are wondering why the country is literally going to shit.

She was properly going off on one yesterday because my sister and niece couldn't go holiday swimming in the Norfolk sea because it is currently full of human shit.

She just wasn't having the fact that this is a direct result of the Brexit she voted for. She actually tried to blame the Blair government for the sewage, refusing to accept that this would not be happening if we were still in the EU and subject to all those pesky laws designed to protect people from rogue governments and corporations.

As usual blaming Brexit for this is pretty bizarre. It has almost nothing to do with Brexit except in some very minor way:

 

Quote

The Environment Agency says that “permits contain conditions that control the quality of the effluent you can discharge”, but that companies may not be able to comply with these conditions if they cannot get water treatment chemicals due to a number of reasons, including the pandemic, supply chain failure and “the UK’s new relationship with the EU.”

So as usual, blame Brexit.. except don't take into account a massive world wide pandemic, enormous global supply chain failures etc. BLAME BREXIT!! WAAAH!!

https://fullfact.org/environment/murky-claims-about-sewage-bill-fact-checked/

Even the idea that the government is actively voting to dump sewage into the sea is of course not true either. They voted against an uncosted proposal that wasn't intended to prevent companies dumping sewage into the sea and any effort to do so would have had little legal effect.

It's weird how you keep going on about how your mum is so often wrong, except when she says stuff you agree with.

[mormont]

44 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Blame the people. They're getting the government they deserve. 

We get a lot of stick in Scotland because we have a better government and people down South often point out that it's flawed, as if we don't know that. The SNP are not perfect, for sure. They've messed up. Their reform of secondary education qualifications is my personal bugbear - as a parent at the time, it was an impenetrable mess. 

But when you put the Scottish government next to the UK government... well, you can see why people keep voting them in. Bare minimum competence seems beyond Westminster at the moment. Deranged, half-baked notions about trivial nonsense appear instead of well considered public policy. Labour and the Lib Dems are ineffectual and the Tories are only interested in personal power - who's got it, who can give me some, what do I have to say to get it. 

I am grumpy today for various reasons but at the same time, it's no word of a lie. 

[Spockydog]

21 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Does she realise that Blair hasn't had a say in anything for 15 years - at which point, our beaches were pretty clean?

 

Could she name the Blairite policy that allowed water companies to dump raw sewage into our rivers and seafronts?

She probably heard some gammon moron spouting this shit unchallenged on GB News.

 

[BigFatCoward]

59 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Imagine being so miserable and bigoted and sour that you feel the need to write to the police to complain about this:

 

 

I wouldn't complain. But most of us fucking hate it, it's cringe inducing. It's not that it's pride, any time police dance, a small part of me dies inside. 

[Spockydog]

21 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

I wouldn't complain. But most of us fucking hate it, it's cringe inducing. It's not that it's pride, any time police dance, a small part of me dies inside. 

Why?

Frankly, If I was a copper, I think I would welcome anything that deflects from the image of everyday corrupt, violent, racist bullies, as well as the odd rapist and murderer.

[Spockydog]

42 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

So as usual, blame Brexit.. except don't take into account a massive world wide pandemic, enormous global supply chain failures

Ah, the ever-dependable supply chain crisis. The same supply chain crisis that was entirely responsible for emptying our supermarket shelves and closing our petrol forecourts, eh? So let's not even start on how Brexit exacerbated that whole thing.

And you can't just ignore the fact (well, you probably will, but quelle surprise) that UK water cleanliness has been driven by the EU over the past thirty or forty years. We used to be known as the Dirty Man of Europe before we joined. Water and air pollution was off the fucking charts. Now it seems we are looking to reclaim that title.

With the bill passed by the Tories last year, water companies have been given the green light to just pump sewage into our rivers and seas instead of treating it. No checks, no oversight. Nothing. They have been told that they can just do whatever the fuck they like. Had we been in the EU that bill wouldn't even have seen light of day. 

Also, if this isn't Brexit related, why is the same thing not currently happening all across the EU? Why aren't French and German beaches covered in mountains of shit right now?

Eh? Eh? Eh?