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NBA 2022 off-season: the Durant Decision


DanteGabriel

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44 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Interesting that you say that because I actually feel like playoff basketball is weirdly predictable at times.  Like if one team has a slight edge over another and goes up 2-0 in the series, then it's like an 75% chance that the other team wins game 3.  Or conversely if two teams seem really evenly matched and then one takes game 3 on the road to go up 2-1, you can be pretty confident that the other team will win and tie it up. 

Obviously it's not ironclad, but I feel like there are a LOT of games in the playoffs where I just feel like we know who "wants it more" and then they get the hustle plays, the refs give them a little home cooking, and they get the W.  I've actually considered tracking my impression of this "feeling" compared to betting odds to see if I'm just imagining it or not. 

Picking winners isn’t that hard, but betting the spread is, and as mentioned, I would not trust an NBA ref to watch my dog for a night. You’re kidding yourself if you think Donaghy was an isolated incident.

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Wembayana looked amazing last week. Fluidity and grace are not terms one would associate with a 7-4" human. That said, just as with Holmgren's disastrous injury, I think drafting Victor guarantees you a max of four or five healthy seasons through his 20s, and likely not much after.

I'm sure he'll go #1 barring injury before then, but I'd bet my rent that ten years down the line, one of the 2-4 picks will have a more productive career.

(I'd dearly love to be wrong and see him emerge as a world-beater)

 

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16 minutes ago, Argonath Diver said:

I'm sure he'll go #1 barring injury before then, but I'd bet my rent that ten years down the line, one of the 2-4 picks will have a more productive career.

I think Wembanyama looks much more projectable as a Kareem-like freak than Holmgren ever has.

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15 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think Wembanyama looks much more projectable as a Kareem-like freak than Holmgren ever has.

100% this. Chet's movements were unathletic by NBA standards, both in transition and around the rim. Victor moves like a wing. And more importantly, his frame suggests he can add the weight and strength necessary to have a long career if he can avoid foot and knee issues. There's always a risk with super tall guys, but concerns about VW are not anything like what they were with Chet. 

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Agreed with both of you regarding Holmgren. I was quite surprised how much hype he got while being scarily thin. Wambayana has a stronger looking base and frame, definitely. He's still an absolute extreme of genetic variance, towering over Holmgren and Gobert.

Wembayana is fun as hell to watch, but every inch over seven feet is like an exponential risk for lower body injury. There are only a handful of men over 7'2" in the first place and even Yao and his absolute tree trunks of thighs limited his long term success in a very physical league. 

He's the sure pick, I get it. Far better projection than Chet, to me. I will remain resolute that at such a great height, it's almost a guarantee he'll play fewer than 60 games a season on average through his 20s as opposed to, say, Scoot Henderson who looks amazing as well and is orders of magnitude less likely to suffer season- or career-ending injury.

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12 minutes ago, Argonath Diver said:

Wembayana is fun as hell to watch, but every inch over seven feet is like an exponential risk for lower body injury. There are only a handful of men over 7'2" in the first place and even Yao and his absolute tree trunks of thighs limited his long term success in a very physical league. 

I've met Kareem on multiple occasions.  He's definitely over 7'2", no matter what he's listed at.  (He's also a piece of shit, but that's neither here nor there.)  Is he an outlier?  Sure, of course.  But we're obviously talking about potential outliers, right?

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Hah, that's great to hear he's a dick. Most of the Beautiful People I've served or met through the bar world have been approximately the same ratio as the general population when it comes to dickheadedness - namely,  we're mostly all pieces of shit, and so are they. Some real keepers, though, right?

I definitely agree that of all the wildly tall prospects the last decade or two (I wildly missed on thinking Mo Bomba was going to be a HOFer), Wembayana could be Yao if he came to the NBA earlier - and in an era of outside shooting that could make Victor an unmatched talent.

I'm just a terribly pessimistic sports fan scarred by constant career-altering injuries to my favorite players. I loved Holmgren's smooth play, but man losing his rookie year was completely unsurprising. I think Wembayana is a huge injury risk as well. 

 

Edit: he and Yao are not comparable at all regarding their game. If Yao had come to the NBA at Victor's age they'd have had perhaps similar fanfare as impossibly tall guys who still had handles and dexterity.

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38 minutes ago, Relic said:

Uhhhh, here's video of Draymond punching Poole and...id fucking trade Green ASAP after this. That's fucking NUTS.

 

https://www.tmz.com/2022/10/07/draymond-green-video-punch-jordan-poole-practice-golden-state-warriors/

I love how the bald guy in the gray shirt is standing right there and doesn't even flinch and then just stands there while other people break it up.  :stunned: 

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1 hour ago, Relic said:

Uhhhh, here's video of Draymond punching Poole and...id fucking trade Green ASAP after this. That's fucking NUTS.

https://www.tmz.com/2022/10/07/draymond-green-video-punch-jordan-poole-practice-golden-state-warriors/

Wow, that is like something from a high school practice in the 70s or 80s, when you could see that action once a month every school year.  And the punishment would be to run some laps.

But times have changed, and these guys are in the NBA.  Now I want to know what would spark a shot like that, and from a veteran.

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1 hour ago, Relic said:

Uhhhh, here's video of Draymond punching Poole and...id fucking trade Green ASAP after this. That's fucking NUTS.

 

https://www.tmz.com/2022/10/07/draymond-green-video-punch-jordan-poole-practice-golden-state-warriors/

You would, but who'd take him and match salaries? 

Regardless, hopefully he gets an appropriate punishment. Surely they can't sweep it under the rug with the video out? 

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Ugly situation and Green needs to be suspended by the team, but I'd be shocked if he's traded. He has the most value to the Warriors as they absolutely need him and I can't see any other team wanting to bring him in. They'd need to staple picks and/or a young player to move him and even then why would another team want those problems? If the situation can't be fixed, Poole is the one who will be traded. Unlike Green, he's just a luxury and they've already got too many mouths to feed going forward. 

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I think the video changes everything.  Just like with Ray Rice.  They were all set to sweep that one under the rug.  Even his wife was ready to cover it up and move on.  But once the video is out there, it speaks for itself.

The Warriors were ready to just call it a practice mishap, Draymond has apologized, blah blah blah.  But even if the facts of the matter are still exactly what we already knew... the video changes how those same facts are seen.

I think the NBA has to suspend him for a while now just because they are very image conscious and they can't afford to be seen as giving tacit consent to that behavior.

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Draymond has always been a dirty piece of shit, so that video isn't surprising at all.  Glad someone leaked it and potentially forced the Warriors to actually do something about it.

On the plus side, nice to see Draymond hit someone above the belt for once, even if it was still a cheap shot.

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3 hours ago, Rhom said:

I think the NBA has to suspend him for a while now just because they are very image conscious and they can't afford to be seen as giving tacit consent to that behavior.

Can they? Not sure about the NBA, but I know the NFL leaves it to the teams when incidents take place at practice. 

Anyways, the video changes nothing except as many have joked online Draymond cost himself a lot of money. The Warriors aren't trading him because who would want him? I'm certainly not giving anything up for while demanding assets for taking him on. 

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Can they? Not sure about the NBA, but I know the NFL leaves it to the teams when incidents take place at practice. 

Anyways, the video changes nothing except as many have joked online Draymond cost himself a lot of money. The Warriors aren't trading him because who would want him? I'm certainly not giving anything up for while demanding assets for taking him on. 

Adam Silver’s NBA is a far different animal than the NFL.

And yes, I think absent the video… NBA lets GSW handle it.  But the video does change things IMO

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8 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Adam Silver’s NBA is a far different animal than the NFL.

And yes, I think absent the video… NBA lets GSW handle it.  But the video does change things IMO

It depends. In the NFL it's specifically written that it's up to the team, not the league, to punish the player if the occurrence happened during practice (hence why Donald wasn't punished for doing the same shit that cost Garrett six games). I briefly checked earlier and couldn't find any specific language when it comes to the NBA, but I am sure Silver has more discretion. Regardless, the pressure is on the organization and they will suspend him. For how long, I can't say. Is five games fair? 

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