Varys. Theory of Power

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

Three great men and the sellsword.  A king, a rich man, and a priest.  Who does the sellsword obey?  Varys believes power resides where people believe it does. 

The answer is not so simple because each person is different.  A devoutly religious person would obey the priest.  Repercussions from the Gods would compel the man to obey the spokesperson for the Gods.  A poor atheists would do as the rich man commands to earn himself a reward.  Most would do as their king commands.

The Dothraki and the Free Folk follow strength.  Their people are raw and it is down to the essentials.  Who can lead the khalasar and maintain order and discipline.  Anarchy benefits no one.  We have a European Union which limits independence but enables peaceful coexistence.  Two world wars and people are willing to sacrifice some independence for stable relations.  In the same idea, the Dothraki and the Wildlings are willing to submit to an authority to avoid anarchy. 

Robb was always on thin ice because he was declared a king before the rebellion was successful.  Bad moves on his part upset Lord Walder and the Karstarks enough to turn their backs on him.  His base of power was shaky from the beginning.  Jon had authority at the Wall but the people he led turned against him after he admitted to treason.  Hold on power can be fragile.  The fool can easily lose his authority.  Robb believed his followers will continue to obey, regardless of what decisions he made.  They turned against him when he made decisions which harmed them.  Jon did a lot of things which harmed the Night's Watch.  Bowen Marsh killed him to prevent him doing further harm to them. 

Mance Rayder knew what he needed to do to earn the Wildlings. He proved himself the strongest.  He remarkably earned their love because they were willing to follow Jon's foolish plan to attack Ramsay Bolton.  They were not doing this for Arya Stark.  She meant nothing to them.  They were going to follow Snow to rescue Mance.  Snow ofcourse was going to rescue his sister. 

Aegon, the paper dragon, will be successful in tricking the people into believing he is Aegon Targaryen.  Those who follow him will continue to accept his authority for as long as they believe he is the real son of Rhaegar.  Daenerys will expose the lie and will most likely topple Aegon from power.  The slaves soldiers of Astapor obeyed their masters because they have been conditioned to do so.  Disobedience had been removed through years of training.  But none of that mattered the moment Daenerys toppled their masters. 

The answer to the question at the beginning depends on the person being ordered.  Bring this up to the scale of Westeros and the answer is obvious.  We have seen it.  The War Of The 5 Kings.  We will see the same dynamics continue in the future.  The loyalties of the people will be divided. 

[Aebram]

2 hours ago, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

power resides where people believe it does. 

I think your overall point is true.  Varys's statement is simplistic.  It would be more correct if he had added a couple of  "disclaimers:"  that different people may believe it resides in different places, and that people's beliefs can change in a moment.

That being said, I will respectfully disagree with some of what you wrote about Robb Stark.  The Karstark problem was not caused by a "bad move" on Robb's part.  Karstark bent the knee to Robb, and later betrayed him.  He committed deliberate, premeditated acts that killed two valuable hostages and some fellow soldiers (the Stark men guarding the hostages).  

It seems to me that the Karstarks committed the cardinal sin of ASOIAF:  they put love (of their own family) above honor.  Rickard killed the hostages to avenge the death of his sons.  The rest of his men deserted Stark as retaliation for the death of Rickard.  Later in the story, Karstarks got involved in a conspiracy to betray Stannis.  It seems that they just aren't honorable.

[Craving Peaches]

Thing is in Varys' scenario you could kill the rich man to take his money, then kill the king to take his crown, then have yourself anointed as rightful king by the surviving priest. Or you could ignore everyone. Or you could kill everyone. You have the sword. The sword is the real power.

[John Suburbs]

11 hours ago, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

Three great men and the sellsword.  A king, a rich man, and a priest.  Who does the sellsword obey?  Varys believes power resides where people believe it does. 

The answer is not so simple because each person is different.  A devoutly religious person would obey the priest.  Repercussions from the Gods would compel the man to obey the spokesperson for the Gods.  A poor atheists would do as the rich man commands to earn himself a reward.  Most would do as their king commands.

The Dothraki and the Free Folk follow strength.  Their people are raw and it is down to the essentials.  Who can lead the khalasar and maintain order and discipline.  Anarchy benefits no one.  We have a European Union which limits independence but enables peaceful coexistence.  Two world wars and people are willing to sacrifice some independence for stable relations.  In the same idea, the Dothraki and the Wildlings are willing to submit to an authority to avoid anarchy. 

Robb was always on thin ice because he was declared a king before the rebellion was successful.  Bad moves on his part upset Lord Walder and the Karstarks enough to turn their backs on him.  His base of power was shaky from the beginning.  Jon had authority at the Wall but the people he led turned against him after he admitted to treason.  Hold on power can be fragile.  The fool can easily lose his authority.  Robb believed his followers will continue to obey, regardless of what decisions he made.  They turned against him when he made decisions which harmed them.  Jon did a lot of things which harmed the Night's Watch.  Bowen Marsh killed him to prevent him doing further harm to them. 

Mance Rayder knew what he needed to do to earn the Wildlings. He proved himself the strongest.  He remarkably earned their love because they were willing to follow Jon's foolish plan to attack Ramsay Bolton.  They were not doing this for Arya Stark.  She meant nothing to them.  They were going to follow Snow to rescue Mance.  Snow ofcourse was going to rescue his sister. 

Aegon, the paper dragon, will be successful in tricking the people into believing he is Aegon Targaryen.  Those who follow him will continue to accept his authority for as long as they believe he is the real son of Rhaegar.  Daenerys will expose the lie and will most likely topple Aegon from power.  The slaves soldiers of Astapor obeyed their masters because they have been conditioned to do so.  Disobedience had been removed through years of training.  But none of that mattered the moment Daenerys toppled their masters. 

The answer to the question at the beginning depends on the person being ordered.  Bring this up to the scale of Westeros and the answer is obvious.  We have seen it.  The War Of The 5 Kings.  We will see the same dynamics continue in the future.  The loyalties of the people will be divided. 

Well, yeah, I think you went full circle on this one. Power resides where people believe it does. When the loyalties of the people are divided, power is divided like we see now. The only way to consolidate power is to consolidate the belief that you have that power, and the usual way to do this is through conquest.

[Darth Sidious]

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, yeah, I think you went full circle on this one. Power resides where people believe it does. When the loyalties of the people are divided, power is divided like we see now. The only way to consolidate power is to consolidate the belief that you have that power, and the usual way to do this is through conquest.

Through conquest or getting the other two to support you. Varys is just another fellow with an opinion. 

[The Commentator]

On 8/11/2022 at 7:44 AM, Craving Peaches said:

Thing is in Varys' scenario you could kill the rich man to take his money, then kill the king to take his crown, then have yourself anointed as rightful king by the surviving priest. Or you could ignore everyone. Or you could kill everyone. You have the sword. The sword is the real power.

Yessir and it was revealed with the rioting people in king’s landing. The people are the sellsword and their advantage in number is the sword. 

[The Commentator]

Robb understood enough. He had something he wanted more than honor. He broke his oath and his honor because he wanted Jeyne. He knew his oath breaking was wrong. He knew anger will come from the Freys.  He was not going to ask forgiveness until he needed Walder’s help again.  He only placed himself in danger by going to the twins because it was necessary to mend what he broke. 

[Craving Peaches]

4 minutes ago, Kalikrates said:

Robb understood enough. He had something he wanted more than honor. He broke his oath and his honor because he wanted Jeyne. He knew his oath breaking was wrong. He knew anger will come from the Freys.  He was not going to ask forgiveness until he needed Walder’s help again.  He only placed himself in danger by going to the twins because it was necessary to mend what he broke. 

Yes. Robb made a mistake and understood the consequences just fine. He was prepared to deal with them. People were probably plotting against him ever since he lost Winterfell and Bran and Rickon were supposedly killed. That for me was what sealed his fate. He lost the 'capital' of the North and his seat.

Aside from that Renly dying was also no good for Robb as it caused Lannister-Tyrell alliance. Even without betrayal from his own bannermen he most likely never could have held the Riverlands from their combined forces. He would have to retreat past Moat Cailin and abandon the Riverlands.

Robb made a few mistakes but he was aware of what those mistakes would cause. In my opinion the biggest blows to the success of his campaign were things that occurred entirely outside of his control.

[Craving Peaches]

48 minutes ago, Kalikrates said:

Yessir and it was revealed with the rioting people in king’s landing. The people are the sellsword and their advantage in number is the sword. 

Yes. I think things are going to get progressively worse in Westeros and there will be more riots due to lack of food and mass starvation and I think some lords will die at the hands of the smallfolk. Most of the nobles always treat the common people as far beneath them so it would be nice for some of them to come to the realisation that they are almost completely dependent on them. The faith is arming a lot of commoners and knights are also joining them. Some nobles could be in for a nasty surprise. Though I don't think that there will be an all out revolution or anything. F/Aegon may try to capitalise on the unpopularity of the other candidates for the throne. I mean at this point there is boy king Tommen with his unpopular mother as queen regent and Stannis who burnt the gods of most of the continent.

[Lady Ella]

I think Varys is right: power does reside where people believe it does. I think he understands that the answer is going to depend on the person, though, he simply believes he knows how to make everyone believe that power resides with F/Aegon. I suspect he's not as clever as he thinks he is. People will believe what they want to believe. Doran Martell will probably believe F/Aegon is Elia's son because he will want to believe it. Dany won't believe it because she'll want the throne for herself. Everyone else will believe whatever suits them best, which will divide Targaryen support.

Power resides more with dynasties than with individuals, so I disagree completely that Robb's power base was shaky from the beginning - quite the opposite. His crowning was less to do with him and more to do with House Stark. The northern lords and even the river lords acclaimed him because they believed that power resided with the Starks more so than with the divided House Baratheon. For the majority of them (especially the northern lords), I don't think their opinion has changed. This is also why I think both F/Aegon and Dany will ultimately fail regardless of who people believe: House Targaryen is a failed dynasty, which is why they lost the Rebellion and Viserys and Dany lived as beggars in exile without anyone to help them.

Since loyalties are divided, the Starks were actually right to reclaim their own crown because there simply cannot be one king in Westeros at the moment. It's the ones who claim to rule land where nobody calls them king that don't understand the nature of power.

[Craving Peaches]

1 minute ago, Lady Ella said:

Since loyalties are divided, the Starks were actually right to reclaim their own crown because there simply cannot be one king in Westeros at the moment. It's the ones who claim to rule land where nobody calls them king that don't understand the nature of power.

I agree. The Starks have ruled the North for thousands of years as kings and then 300 years as Lord Paramounts, the Targaryens have ruled the North in name only for just 300 years total. Practically all the Lord Paramount houses with the possible exception of the Tyrells are more legitimate rulers of their respective regions than the Targaryens in my opinion, because they were kings of that region going back thousands of years.

F/Aegon will lack the legitimacy that having dragons gives Daenerys.

[WolfgangII]

On 8/11/2022 at 4:44 AM, Craving Peaches said:

Thing is in Varys' scenario you could kill the rich man to take his money, then kill the king to take his crown, then have yourself anointed as rightful king by the surviving priest. Or you could ignore everyone. Or you could kill everyone. You have the sword. The sword is the real power.

People have the power to make their own choices, but they prefer to delegate that responsability to someone else.

[Craving Peaches]

8 minutes ago, WolfgangII said:

People have the power to make their own choices, but they prefer to delegate that responsability to someone else

That is very true. From personal experience I can say that people may feel overwhelmed when given too many choices. For example selecting items from a menu vs. deciding what and where to eat in the first place. The point I was trying to make is that although at first it appears the sellsword has to choose between the priest, the king and the rich man, in reality he can do whatever he wants because he has the sword, the power of life and death, and the others do not. Whether he believes or realises his own freedom in the scenario is another matter. Due to 'the trappings of power', he may believe he has to act a certain way, eg. following the king's command, or religion could influence him to follow the septon, or he could choose to follow the rich man based off greed.

[WolfgangII]

On 8/12/2022 at 9:37 AM, Craving Peaches said:

Robb made a few mistakes but he was aware of what those mistakes would cause. In my opinion the biggest blows to the success of his campaign were things that occurred entirely outside of his control.

Renly's death and Jaime's release by Catelyn were events outside his control that really hurt his campaign, but he also made mistakes, either by honor or misjudgment, that weaken his position. 

He choose to send Theon (a hostage) back home, expecting to remain loyal to him and not his family. (I will grant that Robb maybe couldn't foresee Balon's reaction, but a little more studies into the ironborn and Balon's rebellion would have helped him).

He decided to sentence Lord Karstark to death, even though he was in the middle of a war, his sons died protecting him, he was grieving (just like his mother when she release Jaime).

He decided to bed and wed Jeyne Westerling, thus breaking his promise to his ally Walder Frey.

He accepted being crowned king, splitting the future realm. We don't know if he would have supported Renly's or Stanni's claim to the Iron Throne, but he sent his mother to negotiate with Renly.

I know some of this decisions came from a sense of duty and honor, from thinking to much about his peers, thinking they will be to be bound by honor. But his misjudgments of peoples and expectations are his own.

[Craving Peaches]

 

3 minutes ago, WolfgangII said:

Renly's death and Jaime's release by Catelyn were events outside his control that really hurt his campaign, but he also made mistakes, either by honor or misjudgment, that weaken his position. 

He choose to send Theon (a hostage) back home, expecting to remain loyal to him and not his family. (I will grant that Robb maybe couldn't foresee Balon's reaction, but a little more studies into the ironborn and Balon's rebellion would have helped him).

He decided to sentence Lord Karstark to death, even though he was in the middle of a war, his sons died protecting him, he was grieving (just like his mother when she release Jaime).

He decided to bed and wed Jeyne Westerling, thus breaking his promise to his ally Walder Frey.

He accepted being crowned king, splitting the future realm. We don't know if he would have supported Renly's or Stanni's claim to the Iron Throne, but he sent his mother to negotiate with Renly.

I know some of this decisions came from a sense of duty and honor, from thinking to much about his peers, thinking they will be to be bound by honor. But his misjudgments of peoples and expectations are his own.

I agree he made mistakes, I just thought that aside from sending Theon, which he didn't view as a mistake, he was prepared to pay the price for things judged by others as mistakes, such as executing Karstark and marrying Jeyne. He knew what they would lead to but chose to follow his own personal code of honour regardless because he saw it as more important. 

With him accepting being King in the North, I'm not sure whether it was a mistake or not because it depends on what Robb's motivations were for doing so. If he only wanted revenge against the Lannisters/for his father's death then it was a mistake, I think he would have been better to support Renly if that was his only goal, as it would make him part of the largest anti-Lannister force on the continent. Robb and Renly both wanted to get rid of the Lannisters. But he choses not to do this beacause he doesn't think it's right. Again judging his own honour to be more important.

The main point I was trying to make was that the mistakes that Robb made were not that severe in the grand scheme of things, the things that caused his campaign to really fail were things he had no control over. Robb made mistakes but they weren't campaign-ending ones. Misjudging people is something he has in common with his father, mother and sister.

[WolfgangII]

I understand he made mistakes for following his honor, and I'm not saying other people didn't have choices. The Freys, Greyjoys, Boltons, and Karstarks surely could have choose to remain loyal, or at least not betray him. But I don't agree with the following point.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

The main point I was trying to make was that the mistakes that Robb made were not that severe in the grand scheme of things, the things that caused his campaign to really fail were things he had no control over. Robb made mistakes but they weren't campaign-ending ones. 

I do believe sending Theon away, marrying Jeyne Westerling and executing Rickard Karstark were campaign-ending mistakes. He misjudged and overestimate people's sense of duty and, more importantly, he underestimate people's ego and self-preservation. That three decisions were the end to Robb's short reign. He made enemies out of allies (or in the case of the Greyjoys, create one it wasn't there).

If he didn't sent Theon he would not only have a friend in the campaign, but he would not embolded Balon to raid the land and lost Winterfell. We could argue he never think the Greyjoys would attack the North, but he should be prepared to defend it. Almost all the Northern forces were below the Neck. Maybe Balon rebel with or without Theon visiting, but he left the North vulnerable and voluntarely surrender his only bargain chip with the Lord Paramount of the Iron Islands.

If he didn't marry Jeyne, he would still had the allegiance of Walder Frey. Even though the Late Lord Frey could betray him when the tide turns (specially after the Lannister victory on Blackwater Bay), up until that moment the Freys have been loyal. We don't know what Walder would have done, but the prospect of being grandfather to the heir of the North and Trident was sure attractive. Robb underestimate how important that union was for Walder and his family, and overestimate how important he think he was for the riverlords.

If he didn't execute Rickard, and instead incarcerated, exile him to the Wall or even forgave him, he would not have lost som Northern support. We can especulate that Roose would still betray him, but he would have more difficult to find allies if Robb shows mercy to Rickard or understanding. 

He could avoid conflict among his army and the disintegration of his host if he understood his bannermen goals and reasons. If he didn't put his honor and his reasoning above anyonse else. That's the lesson for his tragic story. That honor is not the same as wisedom. Robb was honorable, like his father, but not wise.

[Craving Peaches]

8 hours ago, WolfgangII said:

If he didn't marry Jeyne, he would still had the allegiance of Walder Frey. Even though the Late Lord Frey could betray him when the tide turns (specially after the Lannister victory on Blackwater Bay), up until that moment the Freys have been loyal. We don't know what Walder would have done, but the prospect of being grandfather to the heir of the North and Trident was sure attractive. Robb underestimate how important that union was for Walder and his family, and overestimate how important he think he was for the riverlords.

I believe that Robb knew Walder wouldn't be happy when he married Jeyne. That is why he tried to find a compromise. He may even have thought the Freys would remove their support. What he didn't expect was to be betrayed in the manner that he was by the Freys. I don't think the Red Wedding would've happened in a scenario where the Lannisters were not the strongest faction. The thing that caused the Lannisters to become the strongest faction, getting the Tyrells, was entirely outside of Robbs control. He made a mistake with the Freys, because he thought his code of honour was more important and because he couldn't imagine the response would be so severe. In his mind he would be able to repair the damage he caused.

8 hours ago, WolfgangII said:

If he didn't execute Rickard, and instead incarcerated, exile him to the Wall or even forgave him, he would not have lost som Northern support. We can especulate that Roose would still betray him, but he would have more difficult to find allies if Robb shows mercy to Rickard or understanding. 

Again, I think he realised that he would loose those men from Karhold, but still thought it was more important to place his honour first. So he didn't see it as a mistake as he was following his code of honour.

I agree that Robb makes some bad decisions. We the readers and other characters in the story see them for the mistakes they are. I'm just not sure if Robb viewed them in the same way. He most likely knew or could reasonably guess what the consequences of his actions would be, but I don't think after he married Jeyne he himself viewed it as a mistake. I think he thought something like 'Lord Walder won't take this well but I did the right thing by not allowing Jeyne to be dishonored' or something similar. Same with Lord Rickard. They were bad decisions that cost him a good chunk of support but on their own I still don't think they were enough to cost Robb his whole campaign.

Thinking about it more I agree that sending Theon away probably was a mistake of this magnitude, as it lead to the loss of Winterfell and the apparent loss of his brothers and his heir, which lead to his bannermen loosing faith in him and plotting. But they were also emboldened by the Lannisters' stronger position, which Robb had no control over. Though Balon could still have decided to attack anyway. He preferred Asha to Theon, he may have seen this as the perfect way to get rid of his unwanted son/heir. Though Winterfell would not be captured, so sending Theon definitely made things worse. Sadly if Robb treated Theon as more of a hostage and less of a friend he most likely wouldn't've lost Winterfell.

But sending Theon away could also have happened under entirely different circumstances. For example if Renly doesn't die and defeats Stannis. I would assume negotiations between Robb and Renly would continue. In this scenario where it looks like Robb and Renly may be allies, Balon could choose to attack the Westerlands instead as the Lannisters are the weaker party. So sending Theon away may only have been a mistake due to events outside Robb's control.

But I agree that it was a big mistake to make. It does tie in to the 'Trappings of Power' when Robb looses Winterfell. He looses his seat and the 'capital' of the North. Faith in him is shaken.

9 hours ago, WolfgangII said:

We could argue he never think the Greyjoys would attack the North, but he should be prepared to defend it. Almost all the Northern forces were below the Neck.

This is true, if I were him I would have left more people up there, it's not just the Greyjoys but the wildlings who could be a problem. Tywin does the same as Robb. He leaves the Westerlands mostly undefended to increase his army size.

9 hours ago, WolfgangII said:

If he didn't sent Theon he would not only have a friend in the campaign

This is a very important point. Later on Jon sends all his friends and loyalists away on missions too and it doesn't end well for him.

8 hours ago, WolfgangII said:

He could avoid conflict among his army and the disintegration of his host if he understood his bannermen goals and reasons. If he didn't put his honor and his reasoning above anyonse else. That's the lesson for his tragic story. That honor is not the same as wisedom. Robb was honorable, like his father, but not wise.

I agree.

[The Commentator]

21 hours ago, WolfgangII said:

Renly's death and Jaime's release by Catelyn were events outside his control that really hurt his campaign, but he also made mistakes, either by honor or misjudgment, that weaken his position. 

He choose to send Theon (a hostage) back home, expecting to remain loyal to him and not his family. (I will grant that Robb maybe couldn't foresee Balon's reaction, but a little more studies into the ironborn and Balon's rebellion would have helped him).

He decided to sentence Lord Karstark to death, even though he was in the middle of a war, his sons died protecting him, he was grieving (just like his mother when she release Jaime).

He decided to bed and wed Jeyne Westerling, thus breaking his promise to his ally Walder Frey.

He accepted being crowned king, splitting the future realm. We don't know if he would have supported Renly's or Stanni's claim to the Iron Throne, but he sent his mother to negotiate with Renly.

I know some of this decisions came from a sense of duty and honor, from thinking to much about his peers, thinking they will be to be bound by honor. But his misjudgments of peoples and expectations are his own.

Some of those decisions came from Robb doing what he wanted to do. He didn’t want to marry an unknown Frey when he was already attracted to Jeyne despite having already given his oath to marry a Frey. Robb broke his oath. 

[WolfgangII]

11 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

They were bad decisions that cost him a good chunk of support but on their own I still don't think they were enough to cost Robb his whole campaign.

Yes, I agree that some other factors, besides his decisions, weight a lot on how things ended. And as you point out, Renly's death (by freaking magic) really throw a curveball on Robb's plans and everyone. Nobody could have expected Renly would died at that time, and a lot of plans were made thinking he will come out victorious in his feud with Stannis. I concede that if Renly didn't die by a freaking shadow-murder, a lot of Robb's betrayers would have acted differently. How much? No one know. And I don't blame him for the Red Wedding, even if you think Walder is pissed, no one could think he would do such a henious act as breaking the Guest right.

But my point was that, inside the things Robb had control over, he made mistakes that, add on, cause him his demise. Just like everybody, really. I'm not saying he acted wrong (in hingsight is easier to point mistakes), but he misjudged the people around him. And I blame it to his inexperience. He was a green boy that everyone liked, with a werewolf at his side, that won his first battles, and people named him king. He believe people were more honorable or duty-bound that they were and he believe he had more time.

[WolfgangII]

2 hours ago, Kalikrates said:

Some of those decisions came from Robb doing what he wanted to do. He didn’t want to marry an unknown Frey when he was already attracted to Jeyne despite having already given his oath to marry a Frey. Robb broke his oath. 

Yes, he disregard some advices (mostly his mother's) and acted based on his judgment and wants. He wanted to have Theon as powerfull ally, he wanted Jon as his heir, he wanted a wife of his own choosing, and he wanted to be respected as his father. He didn't understand other people wouldn't perceived him honorable, but foolish. Or that simple, they didn't care about that.

And yes, he broke his oath to Walder and thought he would forgive him. He completely missread Walder Frey (and Balon Greyjoy).