Ukraine 18: Pump up the S-300’s… Dance Dance…

[Wade1865]

After six months of combat (if I happened to have survived under Russian leadership) where I'd see my company decimated, or my squad annihilated, I'd seriously be thinking of desertion (despite being an unbearable thought to have, as an American). Unless propoganda, here's some insight into what one Russian Soldier is complaining about.

"drones...can't f****** do anything."

Drones are the future (now) of warfare, and will prove to be the equivalent of a carrier battle group in the Pacific should the PRC miscalculate against the US (imo). Add in its natural capacity to conduct swarm warfare -- and you'll have a good night. A long night. Restful.

[Wade1865]

1 minute ago, Wade1865 said:

"drones...can't f****** do anything."

Interesting to me is how this war looks like it really will (effectively) conclude as a blitzkrieg -- for Ukraine.

[Jace, Extat]

42 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

After six months of combat (if I happened to have survived under Russian leadership) where I'd see my company decimated, or my squad annihilated, I'd seriously be thinking of desertion (despite being an unbearable thought to have, as an American). Unless propoganda, here's some insight into what one Russian Soldier is complaining about.

"drones...can't f****** do anything."

Drones are the future (now) of warfare, and will prove to be the equivalent of a carrier battle group in the Pacific should the PRC miscalculate against the US (imo). Add in its natural capacity to conduct swarm warfare -- and you'll have a good night. A long night. Restful.

One of these days we will repurpose all these wasteful truck and car manufacturing jobs into drone jobs. Cheap, easy-to-pilot, ordinance carriers that can be churned out by the thousands and operated by TikTok addled barely-literate Americans. 

The fifteen hour work week will be cheap in America's future.

[Wade1865]

3 minutes ago, Firebrand Jace said:

One of these days we will repurpose all these wasteful truck and car manufacturing jobs into drone jobs. Cheap, easy-to-pilot, ordinance carriers that can be churned out by the thousands and operated by TikTok addled barely-literate Americans.

Firebrand (Neo) Jace -- this is the inevitability you spoke of earlier -- the Tik Tok Operator. And when the inevitably evolved drone becomes master of the sea (like, fr fr), ground, air, and space (near-earth orbit), before becoming another senile weapons platform, its next adaptive transformation will be repurposed into a Manned Combat Spatial Vehicle; and so it goes.

But for now it's exciting to see how the contemporary drone (and its ideal means of implementation, the swarm) plays out in real time here in Ukraine and elsewhere.

[Wade1865]

2 hours ago, MeanMrMustard said:

I know where I was when Ser Scot supported the Iraq War and believed in WMD and murdering Iraqis. I know because I was on the other side.

36 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I was wrong then.  I believe you are wrong now.  And given my prior post from Amnesty International they seem to agree with me too.

Well, I found this enlightening as a human-interest story. I understand changing positions on the most recent US wars of imperialism (as per Ser Scot A Ellison). On the other hand, I understand supporting the Russian wars of imperialism (as per (???) MeanMrMustard), if held specifically in response to what could be seen as a reaction against ... fr, fr ... US imperialism (i.e., the de facto containment of the Russian Empire). I love people! and how influential they can be in informing my own principles of life.

[Incidentally, when Uncle Joe's (mind-bogglingly awful) withdrawal out of Afghanistan occurred, it was in preparation to counter the invasion of Ukraine, et al.; to posture against any challenge to US global dominance. But something fascinating happened -- the US world order was challenged in Ukraine, but when will we see the rest of the story, in Chaiwan? Ultimately, in addition to Uncle Joe's recent political successes, the Russian failure will be seen as one of his (unintentional) successes.]

[Derfel Cadarn]

26 minutes ago, MeanMrMustard said:

Also fortuitous is that Russia is winning pretty easily and NATO can't do anything about it. 

For someone who proclaims himself ‘smart’, you seem to be missing Russia failing to achieve its objectives. Even after focusing on the Donbas it’s now reduced to pretty much stalemate. Lost its Black Sea flagship. Horrendous losses. Reduced to obsolete equipment. 
Utterly humiliated.

And NATO seem to be doing plenty, giving Ukraine the tools to fuck up Russia’s army.

You’re clearly trolling by this point so I’ll leave you to lumber back to your bridge.

[Which Tyler]

Out of interest - does anyone know what's been going on in Ukraine these last 24 hours?
This thread seems to be talking about anything but that.

 

All I've got is the British MoD confirming what Wert told us a couple of days ago (as ever, Wert's updates seem to be ahead of the game in both how comprehensive, and accurate they are, and typically 1-2 days ahead of any other media [that I consume, at least])

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1558330118317162503

[Derfel Cadarn]

16 minutes ago, MeanMrMustard said:

Poor reading comprehension. 

 

I have a love-hate relationship with Scot, Xray, Elio, et al.; I love them and they hate me.

 

Ask them if I'm smart without quotation marks.

 

edit: so you're an unemployed writer or something? lol. good for you, maybe you'll make it like scott lynch

Strategic workforce planning analyst.

The writing’s a hobby.

We discussed Crimea in the previous thread, speculating Ukraine are claiming they’ll reclaim it largely as a bargaining position, when really they’d likely concede it to end the war.

[SeanF]

6 hours ago, Wade1865 said:

Interesting to me is how this war looks like it really will (effectively) conclude as a blitzkrieg -- for Ukraine.

I think it will be a reprise (but going in the other direction) of the campaigns of August 1943 to March 1944.  Russia will simply find it does not have the resources to hold on to what it has seized.

[Loge]

54 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Out of interest - does anyone know what's been going on in Ukraine these last 24 hours?
This thread seems to be talking about anything but that.

 

All I've got is the British MoD confirming what Wert told us a couple of days ago (as ever, Wert's updates seem to be ahead of the game in both how comprehensive, and accurate they are, and typically 1-2 days ahead of any other media [that I consume, at least])

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1558330118317162503

The Institute for the Study of War publishes extensive daily assessments:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-12-0

 

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Out of interest - does anyone know what's been going on in Ukraine these last 24 hours?
This thread seems to be talking about anything but that.

More ammo depots destroyed, Russian artillery fire has been reduced because Ukrainian counter-battery fire has developed to the point where it's zeroing Russian guns within minutes of them firing. Kalibr cruise missile attacks have dropped off a cliff and they now seem to be firing them as soon as they're delivered from the factory, which is infrequent (Russia certainly has more in reserve for a possible war with NATO, but not for deployment elsewhere). Thousands of civilians have fled Crimea in a panic (bit premature, but okay). Russia has poured reinforcements into Kherson and not done much with them because they're constantly responding to attacks rather than taking the initiative (the exact same methodology Ukraine used to halt the Izium offensive and probably saved the southern half of Donbas).

Russia is continuing to reconstitute forces around Belgorod, but they've been doing that for months and they've been losing more of those forces to long-range Ukrainian attacks (in response they've been continuing to shell Kharkiv). That force doesn't look like it's in a position to do anything significant. The force that's building up a couple of hundred miles behind them is more substantial, but I can't see 15-20,000 troops making any difference.

The Russian offensive in Donbas has mostly stalled out. It looked like they were massing for an offensive towards Slovyansk, but a large chunk of those forces were diverted to Kherson. Six months into the war, Donetsk Oblast is largely resisting capture and Donetsk City, which has been under DPR control since 2014, is now under regular Ukrainian attack. The Donbas offensive has effectively ended, at least for now, and the Ukrainians are carrying out constant raids, artillery duels and, bizarrely, increasing numbers of air attacks. Russia's successes are now measured in advancing a few hundred feet and maybe capturing the odd hamlet (or, weirdly, bombing the odd one with thermobaric weapons for no apparent reason). According to Russian reports, their losses have been mounting steadily in the last few weeks and are now worse than they have been at almost any point in the war, since at least the Kyiv offensive was defeated.

Measured against that, Ukraine has still not shown a capability to recapture large amounts of territory in frontal assaults. Their current strategy to try to starve and degrade the Russians out of Kherson city through artillery strikes and commando raids may be successful (and is also giving their fresh recruits vital combat experience outside of a frontal assault), but outside of that very specific tactical situation, that strategy probably can't be applied to the entire country. At some point they need to go all-in with an offensive and retake a large chunk of ground. The best place for that is around Zaporizhzhia, but they seem in a bind over the nuclear blackmail situation. Perhaps they can just go around the power plant and leave it isolated and negotiate a surrender.

[Wade1865]

4 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I think it will be a reprise (but going in the other direction) of the campaigns of August 1943 to March 1944.  Russia will simply find it does not have the resources to hold on to what it has seized.

SeanF -- I don't have a point of reference so I just read two short articles on the Donbas strategic offensive, and it sounds like part of what you're describing. Agreed, the Russians don't have the resources, in quantity and especially quality, to hold it against drones, HIMARS, et al. They'll be attrited to death.

I can't imagine the sense of frustration and approaching disaster the Russian Soldiers must feel. Vladimir must realize this, too, and is desperate. What are his options: reinforce and hold indefinitely (and risk a successful Ukrainian reprise eastward), or mass mobilization?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

@MeanMrMustard,

I do not now and have never in the past “hated you”.  Disagreement, even vehement disagreement, for me, is not hate.

[Zorral]

The change in Ukraine’s tactics has not resulted in major territorial gains. But it has managed to stop the Russian advance across the country and stem the heavy losses Ukraine was experiencing in the spring, when as many as 200 of its soldiers were dying per day.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/13/world/ukraine-russia-news-war#ukraine-facing-russias-greater-military-might-aims-to-fight-in-a-different-way

Quote

 

Despite suffering grievous losses over nearly six months of war, Russia still holds a distinct advantage over Ukraine in a head-to-head fight featuring brutal artillery battles. So the Ukrainian military is seeking to wage the war on its own terms.

Supplied with a growing arsenal of long-range Western weapons and aided by local fighters known as partisans, Ukraine has claimed to hit Russian forces deep behind enemy lines, disrupting critical supply lines and, increasingly, striking targets that are key to Moscow’s combat potential. One blow to the Russians this week was a series of explosions at an air base on the occupied Crimean Peninsula that a Ukrainian official said had resulted from a strike carried out with the help of local fighters.

And on Saturday, the Ukrainians claimed to have hit the last of four key bridges spanning the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, leaving thousands of Russian troops further isolated and cut off from resupply, according to Western intelligence officials.

“Of course, they will try to repair, look for an alternative in the crossings,” Serhii Khlan, an adviser to the head of Kherson region’s military administration, said in a Facebook post. “But it is time, money, and then as soon as they prepare and gain equipment and strength — we will destroy it again.” . . . .

 

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Interesting if true. 
Glorious Russian army advancing backwards!

 

[Maithanet]

Can't be good for morale to have all the commanders flee.

[Derfel Cadarn]

13 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Can't be good for morale to have all the commanders flee.

Reminds me of this (specifically the two minute mark near the end)

 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

55 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Interesting if true. 
Glorious Russian army advancing backwards!

 

I'd be worried about Russia bombing the place in a scored earth effort to make Ukraine (and the West) suffer. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

More on the possible Russian abandonment of Kherson:

 

[Werthead]

Interesting innovation here. The Ukrainians attached a 100mm AT gun to an MT-LB. I seriously doubt the chassis can withstand a lot of that punishment, but for an improvised weapon it looks pretty solid.

Reminiscent of the British engineers who were so alarmed about the poor armour and poor main gun of the Sherman M4, pulled the gun off it and attached a massive howitzer. Despite criticisms that wouldn't work, it actually worked like a charm and became the favoured British Sherman model of the war (the Firefly), able to take out even Tigers at range. The American engineers were a bit cheesed off at being proved wrong and copied the idea with the Sherman M4A1 (but never really admitted it).