Jump to content

Ukraine 18: Pump up the S-300’s… Dance Dance…


Ser Scot A Ellison

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, broken one said:

Russians as people are high on "world fear us, WE ARE BIG POWER, we take what's ours, fuck yeah!".

broken one -- reminds me of some Americans I know, hahaha. I get the same vibe from Turks, too. Must be a great power mindset, former or current. Don’t recall equivalence in Brits, though…

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

broken one -- reminds me of some Americans I know, hahaha. I get the same vibe from Turks, too. Must be a great power mindset, former or current. Don’t recall equivalence in Brits, though…

I know what you mean, the difference is scale/universality of this high. Also what the countries have to offer and what they achieved and their citizens may be proud of. In case of Russia it is mostly the fact they are dangerous. You eat potatos, in a house with no running water and toilet, but as long as everyone fears your state... Mmmmmmm...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, broken one said:

I know what you mean, the difference is scale/universality of this high. Also what the countries have to offer and what they achieved and their citizens may be proud of. In case of Russia it is mostly the fact they are dangerous. You eat potatos, in a house with no running water and toilet, but as long as everyone fears your state... Mmmmmmm...

broken one — that’s an interesting observation on their mindset, and generally true imo.

It’s been a revelation, to me, on how I was told to view Soviets and what I see in Ukraine now. A recent meme showed a Russian Soldier, wearing a skull / punisher mask like the Americans who worked for me did; rifle slung and carrying grocery bags for a local bábushka walking home. A brief look into the soul of a Russian Soldier; but, really, common to all energetic peoples.


“These men were born to drill and die.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's growing alarm, from both residents and the Russian military occupiers, that large chunks of the areas under Russian occupation, even those taken months ago, have not had reliable power or water restored. Makeshift external showers are in use in some areas. This system isn't working very well right now, and will collapse during the winter.

Apparently Russian civilian contractors are extremely reluctant to go to an active warzone to help restore services, most of the local Ukrainian contractors have fled and the few who are still around are massively overworked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Werthead said:

There's growing alarm, from both residents and the Russian military occupiers, that large chunks of the areas under Russian occupation, even those taken months ago, have not had reliable power or water restored. Makeshift external showers are in use in some areas. This system isn't working very well right now, and will collapse during the winter.

Apparently Russian civilian contractors are extremely reluctant to go to an active warzone to help restore services, most of the local Ukrainian contractors have fled and the few who are still around are massively overworked.

Werthead -- very interesting! Have you seen much traffic on partisan activity from your sources? It'd be informative to compare current activity with future ones, especially where civil services have collapsed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Loge said:

Sounds like taking away travel to Europe is exactly the thing to do if you want to undermine support for Putin and the war.

Loge -- insightful; yes, I'd agree denying the Russian population access to the good life (like tourism, status, goods, et al.) would be effective in expediting a conclusion to the war, especially given the acute material and general hardships they must have endured during modern history. Though, you'd have to tolerate dehumanizing the people (e.g. the personal stories in this thread).

I suspect their historical hardships manifest in them being socially cold, tending to spend immediately rather than save or invest, and more likely to focus on physical appearance over lodging and transportation. It would also explain why US soft power was so effective (over the course of decades) during the Cold War. Although, from what I understand, once you get to know them intimately, they're very warm. I dunno; I've only interacted with former Soviet Bloc populations including Romanian, Ukrainian, Polish, Hungarian while working / living over there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Wade1865 said:

Werthead -- very interesting! Have you seen much traffic on partisan activity from your sources? It'd be informative to compare current activity with future ones, especially where civil services have collapsed.

Partisan activity is very heavy around Melitopol, Kherson, Lysycansk, Severodonetsk and Mariupol, basically all the major urban areas they've captured so far. On top of that is civil disobedience and people just refusing to cooperate with the invaders, which seems to be simply flummoxing them in quite a few areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On the visa front - in addition to the more important humanitarian reasons already articulated in this thread, I also think that accelerated brain drain and other migration is an effective cultural and ideological measure against this behavior that I'd like to see relegated to history only. Start shit with your neighbors and your economy gets punished and your citizens will flee for greener pastures.

Tourist visas are a bit more focused, they might give some an opportunity to seek asylum but others will just be tourists so I'm not sure on them alone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Partisan activity is very heavy around Melitopol, Kherson, Lysycansk, Severodonetsk and Mariupol, basically all the major urban areas they've captured so far. On top of that is civil disobedience and people just refusing to cooperate with the invaders, which seems to be simply flummoxing them in quite a few areas.

Unfortunately, I can guess how they will deal with that;  mass executions, and deportation to the East.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

Unfortunately, I can guess how they will deal with that;  mass executions, and deportation to the East.

'Mass deportations to the east' - to provinces that are already filled with people very unhappy with Putin's invasion...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, karaddin said:

Tourist visas are a bit more focused, they might give some an opportunity to seek asylum but others will just be tourists so I'm not sure on them alone.

Tourists and micro-chip buyers. Russians and Belarusians have always bought a lot of electronics abroad and so they do now, wherever they can. Some of the stuff may be used in weapons. I assume game console or dishwasher chips found in Russian military vehicles in Ukraine were not just a legend.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, karaddin said:

I also think that accelerated brain drain and other migration is an effective cultural and ideological measure against this behavior that I'd like to see relegated to history only. Start shit with your neighbors and your economy gets punished and your citizens will flee for greener pastures.

karaddin -- makes me think of the post-WWII and Cold War brain drains. I'm not sure to what degree, but my impression is the West gained a decisive amount of quality medical and scientific experts from some of the defeated countries. Notable is how they recovered so well, often competiting in certain markets (electronics, autos). Another interesting example is how much quality we've gained draining East / South Asian talent despite the relative peace over there. Overall, though, it seems to be a win-win for the West.

In terms of a Russian brain drain, however, something tells me there isn't much to gain for us; or to lose, for them (beyond wealthy oligarchs and labor). So, I wonder if even Russian post-war conditions will make a signicant difference as they try to recover -- i.e., what talent? Your point magnifies the already disastrous Russian miscalculation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dunno if this is the right place but a mate of mine needs help so: I mentioned the guy yesterday, but we just released an appeal for donations for our friend and co-writer at our combat sport site who's currently out but stuck in a position where he might have to go back to Russia soon if he can't move to somewhere he can get a permanent residency. 

 

Even if you can't donate it's worth a read for a perspective you won't usually hear - a minority inside Russia and how he feels about all this.

I'm aware that since it's all the options are privately through paypal/patreon/ko-fi there's no way for you all to verify who he is, but... well, I've known him for a while, he's sound. Even a little bit would help. 

For full disclosure, I'm Lukasz in the article. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, SeanF said:

Unfortunately, I can guess how they will deal with that;  mass executions, and deportation to the East.

They've tried that but it's not really worked. Thousands of Ukrainians deported to Russia have been simply getting train tickets to St. Petersburg and crossing the borders into Estonia, and going to third countries or even returning to Ukraine. Russia, it will shock you, did not set up any kind of infrastructure or process to actually keep track of deportees.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, broken one said:

Tourists and micro-chip buyers. Russians and Belarusians have always bought a lot of electronics abroad and so they do now, wherever they can. Some of the stuff may be used in weapons. I assume game console or dishwasher chips found in Russian military vehicles in Ukraine were not just a legend.  

You do realize that they won’t be confined to Russia. This just means the Russian tourists won’t be able to travel to EU but they can still travel everywhere else. To other countries with fabulous beaches, amazing cities and sights to see and all the electronics they could ever want to buy.  This visa ban will lead to two things:
One - Some of the Russian tourists will stay in Russia, which means their money will also stay in Russia which is a good thing for Russia. Most will just vacation elsewhere. This ban will only negatively impact EU economy. Now, I don’t think its going to be much of a negative impact as a whole but some places that had lots of Russian tourists will probably have a hard time for a while.
Two - It will increase support for Putin. Economic sanctions make sense mainly because it makes it more difficult to equip and finance the military. If the quality of life of the population is significantly impacted then the resentment towards the government will increase but, to my knowledge, this by itself has never actually caused a regime change anywhere. All the other small stuff is merely annoying and it has the opposite result, it increases support for Putin and the war. This proposed visa ban and the other stuff that already happened like banning Russian music, great composer, writers, banning Russian traditional instruments, individual athletes, changing the names of foods etc. just shows to the Russian people the West is against them, against their culture and identity. This feeds well into the narrative coming from Kremlin that the West hates and wants to destroy Russia and that they are defending themselves in Ukraine. Also, this is basic human psychology. If someone is bulling you and demeaning things that are important to you, you will respond with anger and defiance. For example, this is exactly what happened in Serbia. Now, we generally do think about Russia as our friend and protector, but even so, lots of people where on the fence at the start of the war. Many thought Russia was exaggerating and that invading Ukraine was wrong. And then EU started pressuring Serbia, started using ever harder rhetoric, started blackmailing and basically threatening Serbia and the net result was that the support for joining EU plummeted to all time low and support for Russia skyrocketed to all time high.
 Just my two cents.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, mnedel said:

You do realize that they won’t be confined to Russia. This just means the Russian tourists won’t be able to travel to EU but they can still travel everywhere else. To other countries with fabulous beaches, amazing cities and sights to see and all the electronics they could ever want to buy.  This visa ban will lead to two things:
One - Some of the Russian tourists will stay in Russia, which means their money will also stay in Russia which is a good thing for Russia. Most will just vacation elsewhere. This ban will only negatively impact EU economy. Now, I don’t think its going to be much of a negative impact as a whole but some places that had lots of Russian tourists will probably have a hard time for a while.
Two - It will increase support for Putin. Economic sanctions make sense mainly because it makes it more difficult to equip and finance the military. If the quality of life of the population is significantly impacted then the resentment towards the government will increase but, to my knowledge, this by itself has never actually caused a regime change anywhere. All the other small stuff is merely annoying and it has the opposite result, it increases support for Putin and the war. This proposed visa ban and the other stuff that already happened like banning Russian music, great composer, writers, banning Russian traditional instruments, individual athletes, changing the names of foods etc. just shows to the Russian people the West is against them, against their culture and identity. This feeds well into the narrative coming from Kremlin that the West hates and wants to destroy Russia and that they are defending themselves in Ukraine. Also, this is basic human psychology. If someone is bulling you and demeaning things that are important to you, you will respond with anger and defiance. For example, this is exactly what happened in Serbia. Now, we generally do think about Russia as our friend and protector, but even so, lots of people where on the fence at the start of the war. Many thought Russia was exaggerating and that invading Ukraine was wrong. And then EU started pressuring Serbia, started using ever harder rhetoric, started blackmailing and basically threatening Serbia and the net result was that the support for joining EU plummeted to all time low and support for Russia skyrocketed to all time high.
 Just my two cents.

If this is really such a nothingburger please do explain the harsh and over the top reaction by Russian politicians to the possibility of an EU visas ban?

Or is the Brutal and unjustified Russian invasion of Ukraine really nothing to get excited about?  Given the actions of the Russian State is the real issue here European bullying of “Russian culture”?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple of years ago Putin actually tried to bully the EU to allow visa-free travel for Russians. No matter how many alternative destinations there are, traveling to Europe definitely matters to the Russian middle class.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...