Ukraine 18: Pump up the S-300’s… Dance Dance…

[kiko]

8 hours ago, Werthead said:

A Russian soldier has published a 141-page diary of his time at the front, moving from Crimea to Kherson, and how horrendous it was. He now wants the war to end and has fled the country for fear of his life.

 

 

 

 

A lot of people, mostly Ukrainians are very unhappy with this article. So he gave up killing and plundering after he was fed up with the circumstances after a while. Good for him but good enough to roll out the red carpet and declare him a hero? And as far as I understand the paratroopers are basically bullies and seems he didn't have issues with helping to flatten Grozny.

So yeah, good that he finally developed a conscience and he may be welcome as a crown witness, but this article is a bit disturbing.

[Makk]

On 8/18/2022 at 6:16 AM, Padraig said:

Fair.  I feared I wasn't getting everything across.

And maybe you are right on your specific points.  But it does disagree with what Werthead has posted.  As he mentioned, it is fair to say that the Donbas was a lot more partial towards Russia before 2014.  We have election results to prove that.  But that doesn't mean they wanted to join Russia.  Just that they wanted more Russian friendly leaders.

maarsen also has a point that one way to change people's mind is to give them what they want.  Living under Russian "control" since 2014 may not have been as glorious as some expected.  Propaganda can of course counter that but that may also not work as well as people expect.  Each situation is different and the regime there doesn't seem particularly effective.  That is why I believe we don't know enough about what the residents there think right now.  Unless I am missing other relevant info.

We can fear the worst (and I certainly can't reject your case) but hope for better.

There are also the reports that the troops from the Donbass have been used heavily in the front line pretty much as cannon-fodder if you believe them. They have also seen up close the Russian tactics of destroying their homeland to "liberate" it. I find it difficult to believe Russia has anywhere near the same level of support they did pre-invasion. 

[Kalbear]

If I hadn't actually been told better I would have thought this was a bad cosplay of a soldier in some shitty anime spinoff

CHECK OUT THE SANDALS

 

 

[Gorn]

1 hour ago, KalVsWade said:

If I hadn't actually been told better I would have thought this was a bad cosplay of a soldier in some shitty anime spinoff

Well, "LPR" forces are basically a street gang badly cosplaying as an army, so the description fits.

[Werthead]

Some reports that 69 Russian vehicles were destroyed in an attack on a Belgorod ammo dump. These were forces withdrawn from around Kharkiv a few months ago that had been reconstituted for a possible further offensive later on. Sounds like they'll have to get some new gear if they want to do that.

Meanwhile, Russian attempts to secure Izium and head off Ukrainian counter-attacks continue to go badly. Izium fell on 1 April but an attempted subsequent break-out to the south to help cut off the Donbas pocket from then north-west was stymied by Ukrainian counter-attacks. This may have been one of the single most important moments of the war, disrupted attempts by the Russians to bring as many as 15,000 troops to bear on the Donbas and then attritioning that force down considerably over the following weeks. Russian forces are still stuck comparatively close to Izium and under constant attacks for almost five months now.

 

[Werthead]

Ukrainian soldiers are on station on Snake Island, which an interesting admission. Given how both Ukrainian and Russian forces have been sitting ducks on the island, it's intriguing that the Ukrainians put soldiers there. It might be a sign of confidence that they no longer believe the Black Sea Fleet is a threat.

Further on that, the UK MOD believes that 1/3 of the Black Sea Fleet's aviation arm has been disabled by attacks on Crimean airbases. And this morning a Ukrainian drone flew into Sevastopol and kamikazed into the Black Sea Fleet Headquarters. Not much damage, but possibly more useful for psychological warfare.

Interestingly, the US has provided Ukraine with a variety of anti-air and anti-ground missiles for use from Ukrainian aircraft, including US munitions being fired by MiGs, which is an amusing turn of fortune from the Cold War. Some Polish aircraft used integrated systems earlier, but not HARM systems, which is a first.

Also looks like a combined long-range artillery attack and partisan attacks around Melitopol. Partisan activity has been heavy in the area for months, but being able to coordinate artillery fire locally seems to be new.

Lots of heavy bombardment of Russian positions in Kherson Oblast in the last few days, including lots of M777 usage. The Ukrainians still seem reluctant to engage in a frontal assault, however. They seem to be continuing to hope that Russians give up Kherson without making them fight for it, but Russia so far has not obliged them, despite being put in a very difficult position.

[Maithanet]

14 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ukrainian soldiers are on station on Snake Island, which an interesting admission. Given how both Ukrainian and Russian forces have been sitting ducks on the island, it's intriguing that the Ukrainians put soldiers there. It might be a sign of confidence that they no longer believe the Black Sea Fleet is a threat.

Further on that, the UK MOD believes that 1/3 of the Black Sea Fleet's aviation arm has been disabled by attacks on Crimean airbases. And this morning a Ukrainian drone flew into Sevastopol and kamikazed into the Black Sea Fleet Headquarters. Not much damage, but possibly more useful for psychological warfare.

Interestingly, the US has provided Ukraine with a variety of anti-air and anti-ground missiles for use from Ukrainian aircraft, including US munitions being fired by MiGs, which is an amusing turn of fortune from the Cold War. Some Polish aircraft used integrated systems earlier, but not HARM systems, which is a first.

Also looks like a combined long-range artillery attack and partisan attacks around Melitopol. Partisan activity has been heavy in the area for months, but being able to coordinate artillery fire locally seems to be new.

Lots of heavy bombardment of Russian positions in Kherson Oblast in the last few days, including lots of M777 usage. The Ukrainians still seem reluctant to engage in a frontal assault, however. They seem to be continuing to hope that Russians give up Kherson without making them fight for it, but Russia so far has not obliged them, despite being put in a very difficult position.

In kherson, I'm wondering if the Ukrainians are seeking to increase the pressure from a low intensity to a medium intensity conflict.  Not a big offensive with lots of casualties, but increasing artillery use and some tactical offensives.  The idea being that Russia cannot adequately supply thier forces on the west of the Dnipro, so the more they force Russian expenditures of munitions and other supplies, the faster things will fall apart.  

Russias strategy at this point looks like one of stalemate/exhaustion.  Hope that they can make the current lines the "new normal".  But I'm not sure they have the strength for even that much.  The Russian military is getting weaker, and the Ukrainians, in spite of significant ongoing challenges, are still getting stronger.  But at incredible cost.

[Werthead]

 

[Zorral]

Are those Christmas pattern decoration lights strung over the avenue?  Are those white umbrellas sidewalk cafe space?  What is the dog saying?

 

[Wilbur]

Ukrainians are not waiting around; they have set up their own Warthog training school to prepare the pilots necessary to fly A-10s.

Inside Ukraine’s Secret Effort to Train A-10 Jet Pilots | Time

More difficult, of course, are all the ancillary and support functions.  Those aren't very sexy, so manuals about how to purchase and apply maintenance and hygiene to a ground attack plane are less plentiful.

[Wade1865]

3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Russias strategy at this point looks like one of stalemate/exhaustion.  Hope that they can make the current lines the "new normal".  But I'm not sure they have the strength for even that much.

Maithanet -- sounds reasonable, compelled by their substantial deficiencies. Considering the relocation of command elements back across the Dnipro, damage to bridges and ammo dumps, rear-area casualties vicinity Melitopol and Crimea (and subsequent relocation of assets); I suspect Russia's counting on positional- and attrition-warfare to buy enough time to annex Kherson.

5 hours ago, Maithanet said:

In kherson, I'm wondering if the Ukrainians are seeking to increase the pressure from a low intensity to a medium intensity conflict.

Coupled with my points above, Ukraine's attempts to convince as many civilians as possible to leave Kherson, which is intended to facilitate the use of less discriminate fires, tells me your prediction of an optempo increase is almost certain.

[Wilbur]

Here is a Ukrainian soldier who was the artillery spotter at Hostomel airport, telling his story.

UKR with English subs.

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

The daughter of Putin’s close advisor, Dugina, killed near Moscow in a car bonb possibly intended for him.

Ukraine or Russian dissidents?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62621509

[DireWolfSpirit]

Sorry for the guys daughter, but elated that people are working to make the "architects" of this invasion accountable for their sins.

Far too often its just the soldiers that have to bare the suffering for the dreamt up bullshit of "All the Presidents men". Targeting the planners and cheeleaders sounds like a beautiful trend.

[SeanF]

7 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Sorry for the guys daughter, but elated that people are working to make the "architects" of this invasion accountable for their sins.

Far too often its just the soldiers that have to bare the suffering for the dreamt up bullshit of "All the Presidents men". Targeting the planners and cheeleaders sounds like a beautiful trend.

She was an enthusiastic cheerleader for the invasion, so my sympathies are limited.

[DireWolfSpirit]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

She was an enthusiastic cheerleader for the invasion, so my sympathies are limited.

Same here, truth be told i was trying to sound diplomatic about it. Let them reap what they sow.

[Wade1865]

3 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

The daughter of Putin’s close advisor, Dugina, killed near Moscow in a car bonb possibly intended for him.

Ukraine or Russian dissidents?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62621509

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

She was an enthusiastic cheerleader for the invasion, so my sympathies are limited.

1 hour ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Same here, truth be told i was trying to sound diplomatic about it. Let them reap what they sow.

Derfel Cadarn, et al. -- ooo, I've always found these events, and associated moral positions, fascinating (within the domain of warfare)! On one hand, Alexander and his daughter, Darya, are noncombatants. On the other, both played a role (Alexander, as an anti-West Eurasianist with substantial influence; and Darya, as a media influencer, with some influence) in facilitating war in Ukraine.

Depending on your perspective, it was either a killing or a murder, though both result in the same end-state: a reduction in your ideological opponent's power. More interesting, though, is how this event is such a great example of 4th Generation Warfare (4GW), where terrorism against a civilian has a real effect (e.g., no more influence originating from the mouth of Darya). Of course, this (obviously) makes any comparable reaction justifiable within the same framework.

***

A media image of Alexander reacting to the killing / murder of his daughter, Darya.

A twitter image of Alexander and Darya, with interesting / amusing implications.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

4 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

The daughter of Putin’s close advisor, Dugina, killed near Moscow in a car bonb possibly intended for him.

Ukraine or Russian dissidents?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62621509

I'm not sure it matters. I suspect for Russian propagandists, it will be used to drum up support for the war against Ukraine by depicting them as terrorists attacking civilians on their home soil. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Thought, she and her dad are clearly crisis actors. Probably from the same agency that found the guys that played dead in Bucha, or the women from that Ukrainian maternity ward earlier in the war.

 

[Wade1865]

20 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

I'm not sure it matters. I suspect for Russian propagandists, it will be used to drum up support for the war against Ukraine by depicting them as terrorists attacking civilians on their home soil. 

Matrim Fox Cauthon -- it matters in its effects -- in relation to Alexander, the likely target. It will either extinguish his participation; or, embolden him and his vatnik sympathizers. Additionally, in the remote chance that it was (and is discovered to be) an inside killing (e.g., to moderate Alexander's mindset, influence Vladimir, et al.), it would cause internal confusion and a dampening of support.

Has anyone seen Kiril? I suspect he has much, much better protection. Nevertheless, overall, this is more of a win; less of a loss, for the West and Her most notable client, Ukraine.