Ukraine 18: Pump up the S-300’s… Dance Dance…

[Loge]

7 hours ago, Werthead said:

There's also reports of a firefight between Buryat and Chechen soldiers in Vasylivka a couple of weeks back. Apparently, Chechen forces were trying to "liberate" supplies already secured by the Buryats. The Buryat soldiers had fought their way to the town in the first wave of the invasion and the Chechens - who in classic style showed up weeks or in this case months later to take selfies and TikTok videos - had shown up and started trying to take charge. 

I think this is an old story from the early days of the war. I have definitely heard it before, and it wasn't recently.

As for the strength of a corps, I don't think there's a fixed number even within the same army, much less between different armies. A corps in the Russian army is whatever they call so. Of course, units being understaffed (and officers stealing the pay for the missing soldiers) seems to be wide-spread in the Russian armed forces.

[Werthead]

The Ukrainians have taken Vysokopillya at the far northern end of the Kherson salient, collapsing the end of the line they'd pinched off weeks ago. Russian forces have pulled back to Olgino and Arkhangelsk.

Not totally game-changing, as the lines have fallen back 5-10 miles, but still pretty major. This was effectively the furthest-penetration of Ukrainian territory by Russian forces and they've now been driven back. If the Ukrainians can push just a bit further forwards, the Russians will have to withdraw entirely from Davydiv Brid as they'll be surrounded on three sides. And they don't have another strong defensive position until the Nova Kakhovka dam. It would also leave Kherson exposed to the north-east.

In addition, the Nova Kakhovka dam-bridge (not the dam itself) has collapsed and fallen into the river, and is no longer usable by heavy equipment. The neighbouring railway bridge is not operational, although it's still standing. The Antonivskyi Bridge ferry has been sunk and the pontoon bridge on the other side of the main bridge appears to have been destroyed, though they could replace it relatively quickly. The Dnipro is in severe danger of being rendered impassable.

I can't see Russia even trying to hold north of the Dnipro unless they're total idiots. I'd fall back on the Dnipro on the eastern side and maybe try to hold Kherson City and take advantage of the Ukrainian reluctance for urban offensive fighting.

Interesting Australian analysis of the Russian version of eBay, where modern military equipment is continuing to go on sale six months into the war.

12 hours ago, Loge said:

I think this is an old story from the early days of the war. I have definitely heard it before, and it wasn't recently.

I've seen earlier variations of the story, including one where Russian and Chechen troops started firing at one another in Kherson, and one where DPR troops and Chechens clashed after the battle for Mariupol (the DPR lost a lot of troops in Mariupol, the cost they paid in lives appears to be astronomical). I don't recall stories about Buryats and Chechens falling out, although it might have been easy to miss in the noise.

[kiko]

22 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Interesting Australian analysis of the Russian version of eBay, where modern military equipment is continuing to go on sale six months into the war.

So it would be a great idea to start a bidding war. Means it's harder to buy equipment for the front  and also draws more, siphoning even more materials from the invaders. Bot developers start now!

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

12 hours ago, Werthead said:

The Antonivskyi Bridge ferry has been sunk and the pontoon bridge on the other side of the main bridge appears to have been destroyed, though they could replace it relatively quickly. The Dnipro is in severe danger of being rendered impassable.

But that is still valuable engineering equipment that the Russians will have to commit for the crossing, and Ukraine will definitely be targeting those engineering equipment and teams as well. How much do they have and how quickly can they keep replacing this equipment? 

[Werthead]

The Ukrainians have broken through the Russian lines south of Davydiv Brid, pushing the Russians back to Chakaove. The Russian forces to the north and east are looking increasingly pressurised, and Davydiv Brid, which is the most important strongpoint in the area, is getting increasingly hammered.

In addition, some reports that the 127th regiment of the 1st Army Corps has refused to fight due to running out of water (!). The 127th is currently on the lines in southern Kherson.

[Werthead]

The Ukrainians have launched a small-scale counter-offensive in Donbas, retaking the town of Ozerne on the other side of the Donets. This is interesting, as it's the first offensive in Donbas (as opposed to a raid) by the Ukrainian side. They have secured a bridgehead on the northern side of the Donets and seem to be looking to exploit understrength Russian forces in the area, which have been denuded of troops to reinforce Kherson.

[Maithanet]

thread about the progress of the war and what to expect.  Matches my impression of what is happening, and I hope his prediction is right (victory in Kherson this fall, complete victory for Ukraine sometime next year).

 

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Significant map change north of Kherson:

 

[Werthead]

The situation at the northern end of the Kherson salient is very fluid, but it looks like a partial collapse has taken place along the Russian lines south-east of Vysokopillya. The entire line has been pushed back en masse almost as far as Novovoskresens'ke, and then running up to the Dnipro at Zolota Balka. The northern-most part of the line is still Arkhangelsk, but it's starting to almost look like a salient which the Ukrainians can start putting pressure on. Heavy artillery bombardments at Novovoskresens'ke.

Something that started a couple of hours ago was what appeared to be a significant push by the Ukrainians on Ternovi Pody, Zelenyi Hai and Kyselivka. That's the Kherson front directly opposite Mykolaiv. What appears to be gains of up to several kilometres along the line. A Buk air defence unit was destroyed somewhere around there and what appears to be a convoy of reinforcements bound for the front. Russian survivors reporting up to 200 dead (I made the mistake of clicking on a video and that was not pleasant).

I think the entire Kherson front is buckling. The question is can the Russians do anything to shore it up and reinforce, because at this rate it's going to collapse fast.

ETA: Some Ukrainians now claiming their forces have entered Archangelsk. Unclear if there's fighting in the village or if the Russians have left. There was one video but it was a few days old and seems to be of a village on the other side of Vysokopillya, so that's very speculative at the moment.

[Clueless Northman]

Could be that they're retreating as fast as they can before they're cut off - and maybe are planning to regroup at the middle salient to try to stop Ukrainian advances? Of course, that or collapse, result on the ground and on maps is the same - where it differs is with further combat power and resistance of Russian troops.

[The Anti-Targ]

In the long run since neither Russia nor Ukraine are really going to win this war, it's the follow up, in particular to help Ukraine reconstruct itself, that is the important question. Will Europe and the USA simply cut and run once Russia is forced back beyond its own borders, or will there be something like a Marshall plan for Ukraine? And will the west try to uplift Russia as it helped Japan after WWII, or try to beat it down, like it did to Germany after WWI?

[Maithanet]

General arestovich in his daily briefing said that Ukraine estimates the Russian forces require 4000 tons of supplies daily to function.  They estimate the barge and other crossings provide about 1000 tons per day.  At that level of shortfall, Ukraine estimates "things will get very interesting" by the end of the month.

[Arakasi]

So apparently Russia is buying munitions from North Korea. That’s rather amusing.

[ThinkerX]

Does North Korea have sufficient munitions to sell? 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

1 minute ago, ThinkerX said:

Does North Korea have sufficient munitions to sell? 

 

They do if they are the proxy seller for China.

[Loge]

20 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

They do if they are the proxy seller for China.

Why would China need a proxy seller? They can openly sell whatever they want, provided it doesn't contain Western technology. 152mm shells and Katyusha rockets and the likes is all old Soviet technology. No sanctions on that stuff.

[Darzin]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

They do if they are the proxy seller for China.

I dunno about that North Korea has huge stocks of soviet era weapons and is always looking for sources of hard currency. I don't think the risk/reward ratio is worth it for China they've carefully mantained their neutrality I doubt they are going to compromise it for whatever Russia is paying for some dusty shells. 

[Werthead]

11 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

In the long run since neither Russia nor Ukraine are really going to win this war, it's the follow up, in particular to help Ukraine reconstruct itself, that is the important question. Will Europe and the USA simply cut and run once Russia is forced back beyond its own borders, or will there be something like a Marshall plan for Ukraine? And will the west try to uplift Russia as it helped Japan after WWII, or try to beat it down, like it did to Germany after WWI?

Ukraine absolutely can win this war, although the full definition of "winning" may vary. If they retake Kherson without heavy losses (their current slow approach shows that is possible), then they can clear the rest of Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts without too much issue.

The question then falls on Donbas and Crimea. They can cut Crimea off from the rest of Russia and cause it immense problems, but retaking it in a frontal assault is a tall order. The smarter money might be to use Crimea as a bargaining chip to force Russia out of the rest of the country. However, Ukraine is also aware that Crimea is a strategic and tactical weak spot, and any future Russia invasion via Crimea could be more successful than this one.

Donbas is another interesting one, as Ukraine could simply make holding much of it (certainly west of the Donets) unviable in the same way as Kherson, but to retake both oblasts would, at some stage, require a major frontal assault using infantry, tanks, combined arms and aircraft. Ukraine has that capacity but not masses of it, and they can probably sustain one major offensive that way. So they have to be sure they can win before committing to it.

There is already a Marshall Plan effectively in place for Ukraine, with tens of billions of dollars already earmarked for reconstruction and various legal efforts underway to transfer seized Russian assets to Ukraine. That could theoretically give Ukraine a ceiling of $300 billion to rebuild with.

It's also worth noting, again, that NATO, the EU and basically the entire western alliance now views Russia as a threat and they will absolutely do whatever is necessary to ensure that Russia's border remains along the border of Ukraine, not Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia.

However, they do have now the same problem that they had in 1991, that it's very difficult to justify a Germany-Japan style rebuilding of a country you have not military defeated in battle and you do not militarily occupy. They can encourage pro-democratic movements in Russia but they can't do much more than that without invading the country, which is clearly never going to happen. 

9 hours ago, Maithanet said:

General arestovich in his daily briefing said that Ukraine estimates the Russian forces require 4000 tons of supplies daily to function.  They estimate the barge and other crossings provide about 1000 tons per day.  At that level of shortfall, Ukraine estimates "things will get very interesting" by the end of the month.

Things are getting "very interesting" right now. There are already units low on ammo, food or water (or all three).

5 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

Does North Korea have sufficient munitions to sell? 

North Korea has prodigious amounts of munitions to sell, enough to sustain an assault on South Korea and warfare with both South Korea and the United States (possibly Japan as well). However, how much of it is any good and how well-maintained it is, are tremendously vague questions.

5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

They do if they are the proxy seller for China.

I think at this juncture China views Russia's invasion of Ukraine as foolhardy, and with their economy on the ropes they are not going to risk any systemic shocks by breaching international sanctions on Russia, at least at this point.

[The Anti-Targ]

Even if Ukraine wins the fighting, it has already lost, without the Marshall plan 2022 version; and even then, carried out to perfection much has already been lost. It's good to know the money side of it is there, but the corruption also needs to be addressed or the money will simply disappear with not much to show for it.

[Werthead]

35 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Even if Ukraine wins the fighting, it has already lost, without the Marshall plan 2022 version; and even then, carried out to perfection much has already been lost. It's good to know the money side of it is there, but the corruption also needs to be addressed or the money will simply disappear with not much to show for it.

Ukraine has suffered significant infrastructure loss, which can be repaired, and civilian loss of life, which cannot, sure. But it has also used the war since 2014 to clear house. Many corrupt lawmakers, judges and bureaucrats have been removed, those who have been working with the Russians have been jailed or killed, the actual Nazis in the military were purged and then allowed to fail in the political arena, and Ukraine was starting to roll back its issues with corruption even before the 2022 war began, because they needed to in order to be seriously considered for NATO or EU membership.

If anything, the war has solidified the Ukrainian national identity and their desire to be part of Europe rather than Russia, and encouraged the reforms that ironically might have been much longer in coming otherwise.

ETA: Ukraine claims 50,000 Russians and allies KIA since February.